WASHINGTON (AP) — The housing market plunged deeper into despair last month, with sales of new homes plummeting to their lowest level in more than 12 years.
Not this low.
Over the last 12 months, new-home sales nationwide have tumbled by 34.4 percent, the biggest annual slide since early 1991, and stark evidence of the painful collapse in the once high-flying housing market.
------------------ Technology is great when it works, and one big pain in the ass when it doesn't. Detroit iron rules all the rest are just toys.
"I think you can classify what we are seeing in the housing market as a crash," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "Sales and home prices are in a free fall. The downturn is intensifying."
"I think you can classify what we are seeing in the housing market as a crash," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "Sales and home prices are in a free fall. The downturn is intensifying."
How they got housing wrong Experts thought 2007 would bring a real estate recovery - not the worst collapse on record. What does that say about forecasts of a turnaround next year?
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Before you put much hope in forecasts for a 2008 rebound in the battered housing market, consider this: A year ago at this time many top economists were looking for that recovery to begin in 2007.
Instead, the year saw historic declines in nearly every measure of housing strength and home building, and left a trail of predictions from some of the nation's top economists that look - at best - foolish.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and his successor Ben Bernanke, after reviewing home sales and mortgage rates in fall 2006, were hopeful that the market had bottomed out.
"It may be too soon to say that it's over. It may not be too soon to say that the worst is over," said Greenspan in an October 2006 speech in Richmond, according to press reports.
In a November 2006 speech, Bernanke said he saw some "encouraging" signs in recent housing reports.
"Although residential construction continues to sag, some indications suggest that the rate of home purchase may be stabilizing, perhaps in response to modest declines in mortgage interest rates over the past few months and lower prices in some markets," Bernanke said.
But those signs of life were short-lived.
By Feb. 7, HSBC (HBC) was warning that rising losses on mortgage-backed securities would cause it to take a $10.5 billion charge. The phrase "subprime mortgage" was on its way to becoming the key global business term of 2007. And few would use the word "encouraging" in relation to housing again. Subprime fiascos of 2007
Rising mortgage delinquencies and defaults led to a meltdown in the mortgage market, cutting off credit to many homeowners and potential buyers and sparking record levels of foreclosures. That only added to a record glut of both new and existing homes on the market. Historic declines in both the pace and price of home sales soon followed.
Lisa Panasiti, a spokeswoman for Greenspan, said the former chairman was referring in his 2006 remarks to real estate's drag on gross domestic product, and that housing's hit on GDP has since eased.
Many other economists freely admit their year-ago forecasts missed the mark. And while many of those economists are again hoping the year ahead will bring a modest recovery, they are far from certain.
"A lot can go wrong here," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's.
"I thought we'd have problems, but I thought it'd be a smoother adjustment," Wyss said about the problems that developed in mortgage-backed securities. "The financial side was much worse than I thought it was going to be."
A year ago Wyss was forecasting a 7 percent drop in home prices from peak levels. Instead prices fell nearly 10 percent from the July 2006 record.
"Everyone thought I was nuts. Now it turns out I was an optimist," he said.
Wyss' current forecast is that prices will fall another percent or two, but he added that there's a risk of a worse fall-off. His hopes for the start of a turnaround in housing in late 2008 depend on the broader economy not slipping into a recession and foreign investment in mortgage-backed securities continuing to flow. Both of those are risky assumptions, he concedes.
"As foreigners get scared and stop sending money to us, that could send bond yields and mortgage rates up. That's the biggest worry," said Wyss.
The National Association of Realtors made a forecast a year ago that was far more optimistic than those by Wyss and many other economists. The Realtors expected only a 1 percent drop in the pace of existing home sales, and a 1 percent gain in median prices. Instead, 2007 will likely end with a 12.5 percent plunge in the pace of sales, and nearly a 2 percent drop in prices, the first such decline on record.
The group's current forecast for 2008 calls for a 0.5 percent increase in the pace of sales, and a 0.3 percent rebound in prices. But Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the trade group, said that making forecasts is even tougher this year than it was a year ago.
Yun forecasts essentially flat prices in 2008. Yet, he also believes there's at least a one in four chance that prices will fall more than they did this year, and about the same chance that prices could rebound by 3 percent or more.
"I would not be surprised if home sales improves in 2008," he said. "At the same time I can also foresee a circumstance where buyers continue to pull back, the inventory sitting on the market continues to build and it causes prices to go down further." Home prices post record drop
Yun hopes that housing may get a lift if proposals are enacted to allow government-sponsored mortgage finance firms Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500) to back mortgages of more than $417,000 in high-priced markets. He also puts stock in proposed reform of the Federal Housing Administration that would help borrowers get loans.
Yun's biggest fear is that Fannie and Freddie's financial problems will worsen substantially in 2008. While he said he doesn't believe that will happen, a financial crisis at one or both firms could shake the housing market enough to cause a recession.
"As long as global providers of capital feel comfortable with Fannie and Freddie, I don't foresee a major crisis," he said. "But if Fannie or Freddie were to be wobbly, that could send mortgage rates to 7 to 8 percent and really choke off demand."
Robert Shiller, a Yale economist who had argued for years that a bubble was forming in real estate prices, points out that one group was on target about where prices would go - investors in a real estate futures market that he helped set up on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
Starting in May 2006, the CME set up futures contracts for 10 metropolitan real estate markets, allowing investors to bet whether prices would go up or down and by how much.
By the end of 2006 those futures were pointing to real estate price declines between 5 percent and 7 percent in those markets, Shiller said. That ended up in line with the 6.7 percent annual decline in the October reading of S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, which was the largest drop recorded in that 20-year-old price measure.
"I'm not normally an advocate of market efficiency, but there's something to be said when you're putting money on the line with your prediction, rather than just talking," he said.
Those futures today are far more bearish about future housing prices than most current economists - foreseeing an additional 4 percent to 14 percent drop in prices over the next year.
"I don't have any reason to doubt those forecasts," said Shiller, who does not make forecasts of his own because of his work on his price index and with the markets.
Other economists who had warned of a housing bubble still saw their late 2006 forecasts underestimate the problems that lay ahead.
"A year ago I thought a drop in prices was inevitable, but I didn't know if it would be a bubble bursting or the air leaking out of the balloon," said Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research. "At this point we're seeing a quick meltdown."
Baker's forecast for the drop in existing home sales to 5.6 million homes was essentially spot on. But he underestimated the drop in new housing starts: He forecast 1.7 million and they are on pace to come in at between 1.3 million to 1.4 million.
The problems in subprime mortgages were foreseeable, Baker said. He added that those problems are likely to spread to prime mortgages given to people with strong credit histories. And that could mean that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, which have relatively little exposure to subprime mortgages, could need a bailout despite stock sales that executives say have raised the capital they need to weather the storm.
"People still haven't caught up with the fact that this is a larger issue for the mortgage market as a whole rather than just subprime," said Baker.
Homeowners fret over rising property taxes Home prices - and tax assessments - surged during real estate boom, but after the downturn sky-high property taxes haven't followed home prices down to earth.
So do you have any other drum to beat? Or are you gonna fill 3 more pages with the same housing is so bad doom and gloom?
It kinda makes me giddy with excitement. I hope it keeps falling for at least 6 more months. Please give me 6 more months or drop. Woo Hoo!!![ Insert dancing girls here]
also not on the selfish side. Tons of people are gonna be able to afford a home again.
Originally posted by pokeyfiero: It kinda makes me giddy with excitement. I hope it keeps falling for at least 6 more months. Please give me 6 more months or drop. Woo Hoo!!![ Insert dancing girls here]
also not on the selfish side. Tons of people are gonna be able to afford a home again.
Fo shizzle!
Where I'm looking is dropping ( do to an artificial high) and where I'm selling is stagnant. In 6 months I may even be able to get a full house for the same price as my condo.
It looks like we will have lower home prices and interest rates. Now if stupid people don't go and buy houses they can't afford and get ARMs we wont have another abrupt correction.
Originally posted by pokeyfiero: It kinda makes me giddy with excitement. I hope it keeps falling for at least 6 more months. Please give me 6 more months or drop. Woo Hoo!!![ Insert dancing girls here]
also not on the selfish side. Tons of people are gonna be able to afford a home again.
Good bye flippers, hello rentals. You ready, pokey?
Man I hope so..... Been wanting my own place for years and this time no biotch!!!!
I'm thinking about another 5 or more years of this before the up turn. I've seen this same thing before back in the 80's
Sheriff sales and foreclosures... Just never had the cash to do it back then..
It is HIGHLY unlikely that the downturn will last 5 years. My best - somewhat educated, being that I'm a real estate investor - guess is that we're looking at 1 to 1.5 years before we see R/E on the upswing again. And that's a *conservative* estimate, from a conservative investor. It *could* be sooner. 2008 will tell the tale. The people with the subprime ARMs have to shake out of the market. Until that scenario is played out, the bottom is still coming.
Good bye flippers, hello rentals. You ready, pokey?
I think that the every door closing thing is true but there are going to be fewer and fewer doors in this country for people with less resources. I have some resources now and intend to multiply them as fast as I can because the usefulness of them will degrade as our condition degrades to other country's.
I have come to the conclusion that the people in this country are not going to wake up and fear for their country and their lives and only those that prepare to be a raper and pillager will have a chance at such a sought after position.
Being a raper and pillager of society isn't just something I can apply for. I will need the power and equity behind me to take advantage of the times. Obviously there are going to be bigger fish swimming in the blood so it is important that I grow large enough to protect myself before all the money of the middle class is taken.
Position is everything. This reverse evolution of our ethics,morals,education,experience and history will cost plenty and I hope to be a collector of that expense rather than a debtor.
As I see it; as I try to see it; I will be able to inflict some humanity on the ones that decided to throw thier standing in this world away. It makes me feel better.
------------------
Though I am branded a devil in priests clothing I cast not the raiment I wear for I am not beholden to any flock with which any color has been given to me.
Good post Pokey, The ones that sit around complaining and fail to prepare will be the ones calling you greedy and selfish later,,,,hehehehe, such are they ways.
Originally posted by fierobear: Not necessary. There's roughly the same number of people, so if they aren't buying...where are they going to live?
They can live an apartment you rent them or a cardboard box. Either way I dont give a damn because I dont have a job selling houses or the problem of renting and the associated headaches of being a landlord / making sure they pay rent so I can pay the mortgage.
They can live an apartment you rent them or a cardboard box. Either way I dont give a damn because I dont have a job selling houses or the problem of renting and the associated headaches of being a landlord / making sure they pay rent so I can pay the mortgage.
There's always risk. But I'd rather be an *owner* than *renter* any day. I *do* hope, however, that more people are able to afford to buy, once all this credit stuff shakes out.
Originally posted by fierobear: There's always risk. But I'd rather be an *owner* than *renter* any day. I *do* hope, however, that more people are able to afford to buy, once all this credit stuff shakes out.
Sure, I couldnt agree more owning is king. However many have lost their asses. If the people who lost their homes to foreclosure file for bankruptcy it will be about 7 years before they can buy again. If they just walk away with a bad credit mark it could take much longer. Then there is the job market. at present I wouldnt be thinking my job is secure with the COL rising and wages not keeping pace then there is the companies bottom line. I talk with people who have lost their jobs of 10 to 15 years. Then there are the self employed... they dont exactly have a bright future either with incomes falling off.
[This message has been edited by 84Bill (edited 12-29-2007).]
It is all about positioning. When new home sales fall there is an open market for people in the remodel business as people tend to make improvements instead of trading up. Of course this does not include renters because they have essentially nothing but temporary rights to air space.
I know quite a few landlords that are excited with the downturn easier to rent properties and can charge more rent. We have been considering doing just that if the market actually turns bad, I am not going to hold my breath on that one but we could rent our house and buy another at the decreased values. :-) Renters are always kinda screwed.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. factories saw orders for costly manufactured rise only marginally in November - falling short of expectations for a much bigger gain and underscoring the strains to the economy from housing and credit problems.
The Commerce Department reported Thursday that orders for "durable" goods - products expected to last at least three years - increased by just 0.1 percent last month. The tiny rise came after durable-goods orders fell by 0.4 percent in October. Economists were hoping for a larger rebound - of a 2.2 percent increase - in new orders placed at the nation's factories in November. Still, the November rise did mark the first increase in durable-goods orders in the last four months.
In other economics news, more people signed up for unemployment benefits last week, a sign that the job market is softening as the economy loses speed.
The Labor Department reported that new applications filed for unemployment insurance rose by a seasonally adjusted 1,000 to 349,000. Economists were expecting new filings for jobless benefits to dip to around 340,000 for last week.
Originally posted by 84Bill: f the people who lost their homes to foreclosure file for bankruptcy it will be about 7 years before they can buy again. If they just walk away with a bad credit mark it could take much longer. Then there is the job market. at present I wouldnt be thinking my job is secure with the COL rising and wages not keeping pace then there is the companies bottom line. I talk with people who have lost their jobs of 10 to 15 years. Then there are the self employed... they dont exactly have a bright future either with incomes falling off.
You would be surprised how fast creditors come running, offering credit to those who went thru bankruptcy. My father in law filed and within 1 year he was getting offers out the arse. He applied and was given credit....I couldn't believe it!
But, given the condition of the marked right now, you're correct. With the ARM issues, you're going to need spit shine perfect credit to buy a house in the next 12+ months. I'm not saying you need perfect credit for a loan right now, but if you don't have a nice credit score you're going to have to search extra hard to find a lender willing to talk to you. Hell, I just bought my 2nd house on Oct 31 2007 and they still had an ARM option when I applied for a loan. Given the problems the market is having with ARM's, I can't believe they are still being offered. What they're thinking I have no idea.
[This message has been edited by ditch (edited 12-30-2007).]
So do you have any other drum to beat? Or are you gonna fill 3 more pages with the same housing is so bad doom and gloom?
Weak End to 2007 Expected for Carmakers
Saturday December 29, 7:29 PM EST
DETROIT (AP) — Industry analysts are predicting a lackluster end to an already dismal year for automakers, likely the worst in nearly a decade. Holiday discounts failed to bring consumers out of their funk, and December sales are expected to fall around 4 percent, which would bring the full-year total for U.S. auto sales to 16.1 million vehicles, the lowest volume since 1998.
And even,
Japanese automakers also are expected to see lower sales in December, particularly as the housing crunch continues to dampen demand in California, their most important market. Toprak predicts Toyota's sales will be down 3 percent compared with last December, while Honda Motor Co.'s will fall 1 percent. Nissan Motor Co. will likely be flat, he said. Nissan has bucked the slow sales trend in recent months on the strength of its new Rogue crossover and Versa subcompact.
So not only is the housing market gone to pot but it is taking everybody else with them.
But then I don’t know anything.
And as for those here that keep saying it is the fault of those who bought beyond their means.
Not everyone did.
But then you guys with the money here will always say the economy is doing great.
Wait, I’m sure before 08 is over you may also be singing a different tune.
NEW YORK (AP) — Town governments, school districts and other municipalities looking to borrow money got a new option Friday when trying to insure their bonds: billionaire investor Warren Buffett. Buffett's formation of a bond insurance company provided some validation to an industry that has been battered by fears of collapse in recent weeks. "If I was thinking of investing in financial guarantors, this would give me comfort," said Donald Light, a senior analyst with Celent. Light owns Berkshire Hathaway shares. Though analysts said the move by Buffett provides a stamp of approval for the broader business model, which has recently come under fire, shares of Buffett's newest competitors were hammered Friday. "Any capital new to the space for reinsurance would be a net positive," said Steve Stelmach, an analyst with Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co., in an interview. But if Buffett "uses capital simply as competition, it is a negative," Stelmach said.
MBIA Inc. fell 15.9 percent to close at $18.74 Friday, while Ambac fell 13.8 percent to $25.12. Earlier in the session, MBIA shares hit a 52-week low of $18.43. The New York Insurance Department expedited the licensing for Berkshire Hathaway Assurance Corp. The state's insurance superintendent, in a statement, said the state was doing what it could to help insurers win regulatory approvals needed to keep their businesses going. Buffett's foray into the bond insurance sector comes at a tumultuous time for his new competitors. In recent weeks, bond insurers have come under fire as rating agencies have downgraded them, or warned of possible downgrades, because of their exposure to the deteriorating credit markets. Standard & Poor's downgraded ACA Capital Holdings Inc.'s bond insurance unit to "CCC" from "A" on Dec. 19, while Fitch Ratings has placed two of the largest bond insurers, MBIA and Ambac, on negative credit watch.
Originally posted by ditch: You would be surprised how fast creditors come running, offering credit to those who went thru bankruptcy. My father in law filed and within 1 year he was getting offers out the arse. He applied and was given credit....I couldn't believe it!
Yes, I do.
The application doesnt mean you will get the credit and if you apply enough times you will actually ruin your chances at getting credit by killing your credit score for another 2 or 3 years on top of that bankruptcy. Chapter 7 is the way to go but since the laws were restructured I can imaging most will be eligible only for chapter 11.
quote
But, given the condition of the marked right now, you're correct. With the ARM issues, you're going to need spit shine perfect credit to buy a house in the next 12+ months.
And the economy will suffer greatly as a result of all these fine and well thought out banking rules.
Oil pushes to $100 Violence in Nigeria, supply disruption in Mexico and the prospect of another drop in U.S. inventories and more rate cuts drive crude past the triple-digit mark
For the year 2007, DOW +6.4% Nasdaq +9.8% S&P 500 +3.5%
My investments made a conservative 9%. Not earth shaking, but I did beat the DOW for the year. Analysts are saying we should buckle up and prepare for a bumpy ride because 2008 is going to be much like 2007.
If this is the toilet economy and I'm still making 9%, I can live with that just fine.
For the year 2007, DOW +6.4% Nasdaq +9.8% S&P 500 +3.5%
My investments made a conservative 9%. Not earth shaking, but I did beat the DOW for the year. Analysts are saying we should buckle up and prepare for a bumpy ride because 2008 is going to be much like 2007.
If this is the toilet economy and I'm still making 9%, I can live with that just fine.
yes, this is part of the problem with this thread. even the "great depression" didnt effect MOST people. "I'm OK - must be your own problem" - I'm fine, so the economies fine. everything is easy from a small isolated bubble of observation.
but - going back to that 9% - is that counting how much the dollars value fell recently, or just the raw amount? have you looked into buying anything outside the USA recently? prices shot up a good 20-40% depending. many online vendors are switching to the Euro as their base.
the value of the dollar is the single biggest indicator of the economy. the DOW, unemployment, interest rates, etc - are all secondary pointers for specific needs. the value of the dollar is "the big one". $100 today does not come close to buying what $100 bought back in the Clinton years. be at the gas station, the grocery store, home depot, the mall, services, utilities, etc. and thats not very good - especially with the MINIMAL inflation involved.
yes, this is part of the problem with this thread. even the "great depression" didnt effect MOST people. "I'm OK - must be your own problem" - I'm fine, so the economies fine. everything is easy from a small isolated bubble of observation.
but - going back to that 9% - is that counting how much the dollars value fell recently, or just the raw amount? have you looked into buying anything outside the USA recently? prices shot up a good 20-40% depending. many online vendors are switching to the Euro as their base.
the value of the dollar is the single biggest indicator of the economy. the DOW, unemployment, interest rates, etc - are all secondary pointers for specific needs. the value of the dollar is "the big one". $100 today does not come close to buying what $100 bought back in the Clinton years. be at the gas station, the grocery store, home depot, the mall, services, utilities, etc. and thats not very good - especially with the MINIMAL inflation involved.
Valid points, all. My main point was if the economy is in this major meltdown and I can still make a decent return, I'm doing ok. No, I didn't take into account the dollar's decline. I'll admit that even my annual raises are having a hard time keeping up with inflation and the declining buying power.
I'm not saying everything is rosy and beautiful. I just don't think it's a catastrophe of Biblical proportions. The economy definitely has some problems, and a recession wouldn't surprise me. We've had them before and we'll have them again.
The biggest hit to my budget so far has been fuel and oil prices and the trickle down effects of that.
Originally posted by Formula88: .... I'm not saying everything is rosy and beautiful. I just don't think it's a catastrophe of Biblical proportions. The economy definitely has some problems, and a recession wouldn't surprise me. We've had them before and we'll have them again.
The biggest hit to my budget so far has been fuel and oil prices and the trickle down effects of that.
yup - thats where most of us are. it not plagues & crashes & people jumping out windows - its just a little tougher to make a go of it. and the boom we had just a few years ago just makes it feel that much worse.
the same rules still apply. make you & yours better everyday - and you'll be fine with the rest of us.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Worsening problems in the housing, credit and financial markets drove the Federal Reserve to do an about-face in December and slice its key interest rate yet again with the hope it would help bolster an economy that was losing speed, according to meeting minutes made public Wednesday.
All those problems also greatly increased uncertainty about the economy's outlook, prompting Fed policymakers to keep all their options open about their next move, the minutes of the closed door meeting on Dec. 11 revealed.
"Although members agreed that the stance of policy should be eased, they also recognized that the situation was quite fluid and the economic outlook unusually uncertain," the minutes said. Some members, however, feared that if problems grew worse, "a substantial further easing" of rates would be needed.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and all but one of his colleagues agreed to trim the Fed key rate by one-quarter percentage point to 4.25 percent, a two-year low. The central bank ordered its key rate to be lowered three times last year; the December reduction was most recent one.
The decision to cut rates essentially marked a reversal for the central bank, which had hinted at its previous meeting in October that the Fed's two rate cuts probably would be sufficient to help the economy survive the housing and credit stresses. But the economy's problems intensified after that meeting, forcing the Fed to change its stance.
"Members judged that the softening in the outlook for economic growth warranted an easing of the stance of policy at this meeting," the minutes said. "In view of the further tightening of credit and deterioration of financial market conditions, the stance of monetary policy now appeared to be somewhat restrictive," according to the minutes.
NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. manufacturing economy unexpectedly contracted in December, ending a streak of 10 consecutive months of growth and sinking to its lowest point in almost five years, a private research group said Wednesday. The decline suggests that the overall economy may be weakening faster than some economists predicted.
The figures are closely watched because a slowdown in factory production can translate to job cuts, which in turn reduces consumer spending — a major component of the economy.
The Institute for Supply Management, a Tempe, Ariz.-based private research group, said its manufacturing index registered 47.7 last month, down 3.1 percentage points from the 50.8 recorded in November. A reading above 50 indicates growth; below that level indicates contraction.
The December results were weaker than the 50.9 expected by analysts polled by Thomson/IFR Markets. Last month was the first that manufacturing has failed to grow since January 2007, when the index was 49.3. It has been four years and eight months since the index was lower than in December; it hit 46.4 in April 2003.
The results sent stocks falling in morning trading as investors worried that the slowdown in manufacturing would spread to the overall economy. The Dow Jones industrials fell more than 160 points by midday.
Meanwhile, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday that construction spending edged up slightly in November as the continued housing slump was offset by record spending on government and business projects. Spending was up 0.1 percent in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.165 trillion. Spending had fallen by 0.4 percent in October.
Many economists believe the U.S. economy grew at an anemic rate of about 1.5 percent in the final quarter of the year and that it could slow to 0.5 percent or less in this first three months this year. A growing number expect a recession because of turmoil in the housing market and continuing tight credit conditions.
The chairman of ISM's manufacturing business survey committee, Norbert Ore, said he expected a couple months of either contraction or very slow growth before a rebound. He said supply executives reported that slower demand was more of a problem than excess inventory. The survey found weakness in new orders and production, which reversed in December after reporting growth in November.
"It's a little too soon to say whether this is a trend of continued contraction or whether it's a soft patch, then things pick up after that," Ore said.
Nomura chief economist David Resler said December results can sometimes be skewed by seasonal variation in orders, so January will be very closely watched to see whether the sector will keep falling.
"I think the troubling thing is not just that it was so low, and it is at a level that is typically breached only in recession, but that it's continuing in a downward trend," Resler said, noting that the index has been dropping since June.
Resler said the weakness in new orders could be a sign of further slowing going forward.
"Up until now, we've been able to console ourselves with the fact that the manufacturing sector has withstood the effects of the downdraft in housing," Resler said. "Now we can't be so confident."
