WASHINGTON (Dow Jones/AP) -- Reflecting a highly uncertain and divided monetary policy outlook, regional U.S. Federal Reserve banks supported three different scenarios for the discount rate last month, according December meeting minutes released Tuesday.
With suggestions ranging from no change to an aggressive half-point cut, the Fed ended up splitting the difference. The central bank voted last month to lower the discount rate it charges banks that borrow directly from it by a quarter percentage point to 4.75 percent.
Wow... The fed has found some interesting ways to PROP UP the market and keep it from crashing since 1929.
Throw money by the bucket load onto it, cut income on interest.
Then there is the minor problem of Most people are in debt up to their eyeballs at best, cant pay their car loans, mortgages, credit cardS then there are the restrictions on bankruptcy. Energy costs are out of control. Job losses are increasing Job hirings are decreasing.
Originally posted by 84Bill: Then there is the minor problem of Most people are in debt up to their eyeballs at best, cant pay their car loans, mortgages, credit cardS then there are the restrictions on bankruptcy. Energy costs are out of control. Job losses are increasing Job hirings are decreasing.
Yeah... It's all good huh Space cadet?
Keep playing on those words, Billy Boy. MOST PEOPLE ARE IN DEBT...........CAN'T PAY THEIR CAR LOANS, MORTAGES, CREDIT CARDS????????????
MOST PEOPLE? MOST PEOPLE? MOST PEOPLE? MOST PEOPLE? MOST PEOPLE? MOST PEOPLE? MOST PEOPLE? MOST PEOPLE? MOST PEOPLE? MOST PEOPLE? MOST PEOPLE? MOST PEOPLE? MOST PEOPLE? MOST PEOPLE?
MOST PEOPLE would be a majority so 51% of Americans can't pay the above. Hmmmm, maybe 5 POINT 1% of Americans can't pay the above.
Keep playing on those words, Billy Boy.
Job Losses are increasing. By what?????? POINT 3 PERCENT!
Job hirings are decreasing.....BUT there is stil POSITIVE job growth.
Try talking these points when you have real and true facts and you stop playing on words, Billy Boy.
Originally posted by aceman: Keep playing on those words, Billy Boy. MOST PEOPLE ARE IN DEBT...........CAN'T PAY THEIR CAR LOANS, MORTAGES, CREDIT CARDS???????????? MOST PEOPLE? MOST PEOPLE? MOST PEOPLE? MOST PEOPLE? MOST PEOPLE? MOST PEOPLE? MOST PEOPLE? MOST PEOPLE? MOST PEOPLE? MOST PEOPLE? MOST PEOPLE? MOST PEOPLE? MOST PEOPLE? MOST PEOPLE? MOST PEOPLE would be a majority so 51% of Americans can't pay the above. Hmmmm, maybe 5 POINT 1% of Americans can't pay the above. Keep playing on those words, Billy Boy. Job Losses are increasing. By what?????? POINT 3 PERCENT! Job hirings are decreasing.....BUT there is stil POSITIVE job growth. Try talking these points when you have real and true facts and you stop playing on words, Billy Boy.
LMAO!!!
I know how difficult it is for you to communicate on an adult level but I'll entertain the idea of babbling in baby talk for you.
Credit card debt spikes to six-month high Total consumer borrowing shoots up to 7.4 percent in November as buyers rely on credit cards in the face of housing market COLLAPSE.
The Federal Reserve reported Tuesday that consumer borrowing rose at an annual rate of 7.4 percent in November, far higher than the 1 percent rise in October.
Late payments on a cluster of consumer loans, including those for autos, home improvement and certain home equity loans, climbed in the summer to their highest point since the country's last recession in 2001.
Jobs weak, unemployment soars Employers add fewer to payrolls than forecast, and the jobless rate hits 5%, a two-year high.
Employers added far fewer jobs in the month than had been forecast, while the unemployment rate shot up to 5 percent, which was a two-year high, according to a government report Friday
Bankruptcies jump 40 percent in 2007 The American Bankruptcy Institute blames the mortgage crisis for heavy debt load, warns that this year could see more bankruptcies.
No.. this cant be true can it?
And red? Nice contribution to the topic troll.
[This message has been edited by 84Bill (edited 01-09-2008).]
You taking care of them kids of yours yet bill? Or are you going to post another thread next christmas about how they had to sell off you crap because you don't provide for them like a man? Laugh it bill. It helps dull the pain from your failure as a man and a father doesn't it.But keep responding to me retard. Its easier then getting a job and taking care of your responsibilities isn't it. You don't realize this because you've proven you are an idiot time and again but you are the reason your life sucks and you have to lash out and threaten people. Maybe if you got a job you could help out the economy.
No Sh!t, that Christmas thread was the most pathetic read ever, but certainly illustrated the problem for all to see, very sad for all involved. I think it is a mental issue.
At least in 123's case, although I think he is misguided I believe he really does genuinely care about the people involved in the downside of things which motivates his worry and doom scenarios, so though misguided it is almost commendable. Bill on the other hand, his only hope for being on par with anybody else is if everyone else fails. I think he is rooting for a meltdown for these reasons, well that and wanting to watch certain individuals suffer.
[This message has been edited by Red88FF (edited 01-09-2008).]
yes, "most people" may have been a poor choice of words - but this is in fact a problem. WTF do you think the mortgage crunch is?? to many people with to much debt.
Originally posted by aceman: Where does it say "Most People"? Goodbye, Billy Boy. Came up short again.
LOL
Again, keeping it adult I see.
Father of Bush tax cuts: Recession likely Harvard economist Martin Feldstein says more tax relief, deeper Fed rate cuts needed if U.S. is to avoid recession.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Martin Feldstein, the Harvard economist credited with being one of the fathers of the Bush administration tax cuts, says the U.S. economy is now likely to slip into a recession, and that avoiding one will take a new round of tax cuts and interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Originally posted by Pyrthian: yes, "most people" may have been a poor choice of words - but this is in fact a problem. WTF do you think the mortgage crunch is?? to many people with to much debt.
Generalities are generally not a good idea but you are right, the facts remain.
No Sh!t, that Christmas thread was the most pathetic read ever, but certainly illustrated the problem for all to see, very sad for all involved. I think it is a mental issue.
At least in 123's case, although I think he is misguided I believe he really does genuinely care about the people involved in the downside of things which motivates his worry and doom scenarios, so though misguided it is almost commendable. Bill on the other hand, his only hope for being on par with anybody else is if everyone else fails. I think he is rooting for a meltdown for these reasons, well that and wanting to watch certain individuals suffer.
For as much grief as I give hobby farmer I can actually respect the man. Bill I don't even bother to pity.
an. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. will skirt recession as consumer spending slows without collapsing, a survey of economists showed.
Economic growth will average 1.5 percent in the first six months of 2008, matching the fourth quarter's pace, according to the median estimate of 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News from Jan. 3 to Jan. 8. The rate of expansion would be the weakest since the last nine months of 2001.
1.6% is still 1.6% of positive growth.
And heres a question. Why is it when ever the stocks go down weather it be 1 or 100 points its because of "housing fears" What about when it goes up? Is that housing fears too? When consumer spend is slightly less then the month before its because of "housing fears". Is it really? Every negative aspect is said to be because of "housing fears" but is it really?
Well, local PFF Economist, 84fiero123, aka Mr. Bitter, predicted 6 months ago that we're going into a recession. That was 2 quarters ago.
Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet?
Is it possible for you to communicate like an adult instead of a bored child riding in the back seat of a car?
Yes, both he and I were right. We are looking right at a recession The leading indicators are indicating about three to six months from now it will be in full swing.
We BOTH stated there was a problem and it needed to be addressed then. Now it appears they are talking about addressing the problem. The people who feel the impact of a recession FIRST are those who live hand to mouth. Need I say more?
UPS chief: Recession looms Shipping services CEO says nation is at a greater risk of recession, and an economic rebound is cloudy
ATLANTA (AP) -- The chief executive of UPS Inc. said Wednesday that the country is at increased risk of falling into a recession and it's not clear when the economy will rebound.
CEO Scott Davis, who took the helm at the world's largest shipping carrier earlier this month, told a Metro Atlanta Chamber of Commerce gathering that overall economic growth is lethargic.
well, being we have no valid previous data, everything in this economy is just a guess anyways.
all previous economic data is from when the US was a production powerhouse, the dollar ruled the world, other nations had a fear/respect relationship
none of this applies anymore. china is the powerhouse, the euro rules the world, and islam nations are the ones that are feared, and asian nations are the ones respected. there are endless ways the rug can be pulled out from under us now.
Clinton set us up to fail. Osama's main mission was to knock down our economy. and, ever since 9/11 its been chipped away. tho - we all must be impressed how well it has held up to all this horrible input. we still stand stronger than most nations on earth. many economies would have fallen just on the airline crunch after 9/11. and, in fact did, just due to OUR not flying. many nations depend on just our vacationing. then - the non-stop fuel/energy crunch. again - this is what hold many nations from even breaking out of 3rd world status. and, now the mortgage crunch. this actually isnt a "real" economic issue tho. it is a social problem.
Originally posted by 84Bill: Yes, both he and I were right. We are looking right at a recession The leading indicators are indicating about three to six months from now it will MAY/COULD/MIGHT be in full swing.
Let's not forget your word play and catch words in that sentence.
You might have a job in 6 months, Billy. Naaaaaaah that would require ambition and values on your.
You might get more unemployment benefits in 6 months, Billy. (Read that as a possible solution to the economy whoas)
[This message has been edited by aceman (edited 01-09-2008).]
well, being we have no valid previous data, everything in this economy is just a guess anyways.
all previous economic data is from when the US was a production powerhouse, the dollar ruled the world, other nations had a fear/respect relationship
none of this applies anymore. china is the powerhouse, the euro rules the world, and islam nations are the ones that are feared, and asian nations are the ones respected. there are endless ways the rug can be pulled out from under us now.
Clinton set us up to fail. Osama's main mission was to knock down our economy. and, ever since 9/11 its been chipped away. tho - we all must be impressed how well it has held up to all this horrible input. we still stand stronger than most nations on earth. many economies would have fallen just on the airline crunch after 9/11. and, in fact did, just due to OUR not flying. many nations depend on just our vacationing. then - the non-stop fuel/energy crunch. again - this is what hold many nations from even breaking out of 3rd world status. and, now the mortgage crunch. this actually isnt a "real" economic issue tho. it is a social problem.
Let's not forget your word play and catch words in that sentence.
I think I'll take Bloomberg's word at no recession then an idiot who can't handle his own responsibilities much less understand what it is he reads and a hobby farmer.
Our economy was stripped down for max efficiency at that time so it had to be finely tuned to keep running properly. Seems to me after 9/11 the economy began to oscillate slightly, then the hurricanes and insurance problems took a toll, then the fuel rices began to rise, then the mortgage crisis... turned into a housing crisis turned into a job loss and banking crisis.
Seems to be the economy it teetering on the brink and the only thing stopping it is infusions of massive amounts of green life blood which in turn is causing the dollar to collapse in value which in turn means our trade deficit is mounting exponentially.
Call me crazy all day long but this doesnt look very good.... even on paper.
Originally posted by Phranc: And heres a question. Why is it when ever the stocks go down weather it be 1 or 100 points its because of "housing fears" What about when it goes up? Is that housing fears too? When consumer spend is slightly less then the month before its because of "housing fears". Is it really? Every negative aspect is said to be because of "housing fears" but is it really?
It is to instill fear. As said many times in these pages our economy and currency is based on confidence. Somewhere in these pages the actual % of subprime loans in the overall marketplace were posted and it is very very small. There are people that can make huge profit or gain political advantage by having an air of instability.
Part of the problem I am sure is due to the deregulation of the banking laws which allow S&L's to invest their holdings in the stockmarket which means that if this market is effected at the same time they do not have the safety net they used to have and it is government bailout time. I did not even know of this until recently. This in a way is not unlike when they took the interest write offs away on interest for real property that is not your primary residence, it made it less desirable to hold as an investment and therefore knocked the value right the hell out of it. Being as the S&L's were holding large amounts of real estate their C&D sheets went backwards overnight.
All the "fear" of recession articles seem to say "if" certain things are not done we "may" slip into a recession.
Originally posted by Red88FF: It is to instill fear. As said many times in these pages our economy and currency is based on confidence. All the "fear" of recession articles seem to say "if" certain things are not done we "may" slip into a recession.
The only thing that is keeping the market from crashing is massive infusions of money and interest rate cuts from the fed. These are short term "quick fixes" answers / solutions or responses to "boost consumer confidence" and avert a very big problem.
Fact is without these "quick fixes" the market would have tanked by now. The possibility still looms for another big sell off on the market and you can bet your ass if the drop in the interest rate isnt big enough to boost confidence there will be another sell off.
Banks are looking at another loss in earnings as well.
the Iraq drain is coming to an end. and, once things settle back down, the energy crunch will lighten up again. I highly doubt we will get $1.40 gallons of gas again - but back to mostly under $2.50/gallon. and just this will thicken up everyones wallet - even just a little. and this will start the nice flow again.
The only thing that is keeping the market from crashing is massive infusions of money and interest rate cuts from the fed. These are short term "quick fixes" answers / solutions or responses to "boost consumer confidence" and avert a very big problem.
Fact is without these "quick fixes" the market would have tanked by now. The possibility still looms for another big sell off on the market and you can bet your ass if the drop in the interest rate isnt big enough to boost confidence there will be another sell off.
Banks are looking at another loss in earnings as well.
Yes BUT these are TOOLS that are in place to ward off "threats" to the economy, they are "fixes". You forgot to put your quotes on "possibility still looms" as I stated one of the safeguards has been removed by our politicians being bought and paid for, and yes that does "worry" me a little.
Big difference between "rosy" "just ok" and "bad" and bad is subjective at best. "In the toilet" is just plane out there.
the Iraq drain is coming to an end. and, once things settle back down, the energy crunch will lighten up again. I highly doubt we will get $1.40 gallons of gas again - but back to mostly under $2.50/gallon. and just this will thicken up everyones wallet - even just a little. and this will start the nice flow again.
With returning vets? You need jobs and what about all the KBR supporting jobs? Done, no more of those jobs either.
Shutting off Iraq too quickly will "shock" the economy so it would need to be "drawn down" slowly.
quote
Originally posted by Red88FF: Yes BUT these are TOOLS that are in place to ward off "threats" to the economy, they are "fixes". You forgot to put your quotes on "possibility still looms" as I stated one of the safeguards has been removed by our politicians being bought and paid for, and yes that does "worry" me a little. Big difference between "rosy" "just ok" and "bad" and bad is subjective at best. "In the toilet" is just plane out there.
Right but what you are missing is why it "looms."
You can only cut rates so much, you can only infuse so much money at once.
If you do to much too fast there will be nothing left to throw at "the problem" except for maybe a few bodies from the top floor windows.
Meanwhile the people on the ground floor struggle while the fed figures out it's next move and we know what a leviathan the government is so it is VERY slow to make real world decisions on how to fix the problem and not just patch it the way the fed can.
The fed can react MUCH faster to the market but the biggest problem with the fed is when it moves money out the door in massive quantities it causes the dollar to devalue. Which causes purchasing power problems, couple that with increases in insurance and energy it causes a consumer "confidence" problem which causes a market problem which causes companies to lose money and cut jobs and the WHOLE cycle starts again at the consumer "confidence" line.
Originally posted by 84Bill: With returning vets? You need jobs and what about all the KBR supporting jobs? Done, no more of those jobs either.
Shutting off Iraq too quickly will "shock" the economy so it would need to be "drawn down" slowly.
yes, but they will still be "in the service" - at least for a bit. and just imagine how sweet it would be if they used them same resources to rebuild locally......
We've gone round and round on these return vets.....
A) There aren't as many Reservists over in Iraq as one thinks. The Regular Army Soldier and Marines will go right back to their posts. The Reservists........90% of them will go back to their jobs guaranteed by law. 5% will encounter a dumb employer that will eventually get raked over the coals and 5% of them honestly lost their business because they shutdown their business when mobilized.
B) With KBR you would see a lot of people getting back to work into the workforce......There is a shortage of workers for many of the jobs that the contractors that would be out of work fill.........Truck Drivers, Cooks, Administrative, etc. And, many of the KBR employees are previous contractors that will be able to find another contracting job or be able to stay on in Iraq's rebuilding.
Originally posted by Red88FF: Big difference between "rosy" "just ok" and "bad" and bad is subjective at best. "In the toilet" is just plane out there.
In the toilet is also subjective, if you want to nit pick.
I believe I said going down the toilet that is different and also subjective.
sub·jec·tive [səb jéktiv] adj 1. not impartial: based on somebody’s opinions or feelings rather than on facts or evidence Of course, that’s only my subjective impression.
So if you are calling what I posted subjective then it was my opinion, right or wrong.
o·pin·ion
o·pin·ion [ə pínnyən] (plural o·pin·ions) n 1. personal view: the view somebody takes about a certain issue, especially when it is based solely on personal judgment In my opinion it’s all a waste of time.
As I posted before, the indicators everyone is talking about right now have nothing to do with the real causes of what is happening. We are living with run-away inflation. Inflation annualized .19% from 1775 to 1913. This is for a new, struggling government with no Federal Reserve and operating on the gold standard. From 1913 to 2006, inflation annualized at 3.29%. This is with a Federal Reserve that was supposed to protect our economy and working with a "discretionary" monetary system for much of that time. Devaluation of the dollar is causing uncertainty in international markets. The Canadian dollar is now worth more than the US dollar. The Euro is still climbing. This is bad news for us because governments and international markets that previously used the dollar as reserve currency are now converting their dollars to other currencies. This is putting more money back into circulation - just as bad as when the Federal Reserve creates more money - which causes even more devaulation of the dollar. The dollar is in serious danger, everything else is a reflection of this
In the toilet is also subjective, if you want to nit pick.
I believe I said going down the toilet that is different and also subjective.
Just thought I should clarify for those educated people here.
Nit pick, hell that is exactly what I said. "It is subjective at best", what is the problem there? Yes I believe you did say/write "is going down the toilet" so just when exactly is it going to be there? All I hear from the peanut gallery is links saying "could be" might be" "it is possible" "fear" "are worried" "unless something is done" key to the last one is something can and is being done. Fear fear fear and Bush is bad bad bad bad, change change change when we all know it going to be same old bag of manure.
I think this will end up working out, really, it ALWAYS does. I was in the building business in the early 90's (funny that was an election year too) when it was pretty dam bad! and guess what? not only did things get better but a house I was having trouble selling for 135 grand then soon was worth 400 grand! I remember when a guy couldn't get a job in the trades while peanut brained Carter was president and soon after I had so much work I was picking and choosing and turning jobs down. Not too long ago the stock market was 7,200 and a few years later it broke 14,000 for christ sakes when I was in business college it was under 2,000! good gawd man, stop shaking in the corner! this aint nothing!
It is truly unfortunate that the housing correction and all the economic worry warts spreading there politically driven gloom and doom forecasts are going to carry this through election time, just like they did starting in 91. What was it that lying sack of sh!t was saying? the worst economy in 50 years! puke. same ole same ole.
Your opinion You think it will work out in the end. My opinion I think it is going down the toilet.
Both are subjective and should be considered, because they are OPINIONS.
Not turned into a pissing match because you are doing good or I am doing good, or anything else. I have said this many times before we are all entitled to our opinions.
You could be wrong, I could be wrong. We could both be wrong, We could both be wrong depending on what happens in the end.
I just read an article about who is making what here in this country. 30% of Americans make under $30,000 a year. 30% of Americans make under $70,000 a year. And those are figures with 2 incomes in the family. That is 60% of Americans, 60%. 2/3rds of America, who do you think is getting hurt the most with all the rising fuel prices?
Funny thing is these are people with little to fall back on. Don’t say well they should have thought ahead. This is not a think ahead issue for most of these people.
This has all been created by those in the top 5% of earnings. Those like our representatives, corporate heads.
I just read something this morning I would like to share with everyone here as food for thought. It went something like this.
“A measure of a mans worth is shown in what he does.”
People who do things that most here feel is menial because they do not require a degree like welding, farming, artists, are some of the richest because they create something from nothing.
What would this world be like without the grunt who creates these things?
We would have no buildings, cars, bridges, We would have no food, clothing, We would have no art, We would be living in a very stagnant place.
------------------ Technology is great when it works, and one big pain in the ass when it doesn't. Detroit iron rules all the rest are just toys.
[This message has been edited by 84fiero123 (edited 01-10-2008).]
NEW YORK (AP) — An already weak holiday shopping season turned out to be even worse than expected for many of the nation's retailers, who reported Thursday they had sluggish sales results for December. The disappointing performance raised more concerns about consumer spending.
The weak results came from across all retail categories, but particularly hard hit were apparel sellers including Limited Brands Inc. and teen retailer Pacific Sunwear of California Inc. Among the few bright spots was Wal-Mart Stores Inc., which posted results that exceeded Wall Street expectations, as it benefited from shoppers traded down to cheaper stores amid higher gas prices and a slumping housing market.
"It's weaker than expected," said Jharonne Martis, a retail analyst at Thomson Financial. "There's definitely a consumer spending slowdown." But she added that she's waiting to see how sales fare in January, when stores benefit from consumers redeeming their gift cards. Retailers don't record sales of gift cards until they are redeemed.
According to a preliminary sales tally by Thomson Financial, 16 retailers missed projections, while seven beat forecasts and one met expectations. The tally is based on same-store sales or sales at stores opened at least a year which are a key indicator of a retailer's health.
"It's weaker than expected," said Jharonne Martis, a retail analyst at Thomson Financial. "There's definitely a consumer spending slowdown." But she added that she's waiting to see how sales fare in January, when stores benefit from consumers redeeming their gift cards. Retailers don't record sales of gift cards until they are redeemed.
....
ya - no ship. with everything getting more expensive, and pay not increaseing - thats what happens. in order for a "service" based economy to thrive - people need to be able to afford the services. but, since asians are now getting our pay - we cannot buy them services. it just amazes me that this is a surpirse? service based economy is bad thinking. their is no equity. it only works when EVERYONE chips in on the service. when some drop out, the costs is split among the remaining - and it goes up. so more drop out. like our health insurance system. as more fall out - the more it will cost, and then more will fall out.
We've gone round and round on these return vets.....
A) There aren't as many Reservists over in Iraq as one thinks. The Regular Army Soldier and Marines will go right back to their posts. The Reservists........90% of them will go back to their jobs guaranteed by law. 5% will encounter a dumb employer that will eventually get raked over the coals and 5% of them honestly lost their business because they shutdown their business when mobilized.
Insight on the News, Jan 5, 2004
Byline: Timothy W. Maier, INSIGHT The Uniform Services Employment and Reemployment Act of 1994 guaranteed that. It required civilian employers to hold the Reservist’s job open – or one with a comparable description and pay – and to employ Reservists for at least a year after they returned from duty. Apparently, this is not what really is happening when our soldiers come home. One report states that as many as 22% of them lose their jobs and little is done to help them.
quote
B) With KBR you would see a lot of people getting back to work into the workforce......There is a shortage of workers for many of the jobs that the contractors that would be out of work fill.........Truck Drivers, Cooks, Administrative, etc. And, many of the KBR employees are previous contractors that will be able to find another contracting job or be able to stay on in Iraq's rebuilding.
I dont see how anyone would be willing to stay on as a contractor in Iraq without U.S. Military "protection."
[This message has been edited by 84Bill (edited 01-10-2008).]
ya - no ship. with everything getting more expensive, and pay not increaseing - thats what happens. in order for a "service" based economy to thrive - people need to be able to afford the services. but, since asians are now getting our pay - we cannot buy them services. it just amazes me that this is a surpirse? service based economy is bad thinking. their is no equity. it only works when EVERYONE chips in on the service. when some drop out, the costs is split among the remaining - and it goes up. so more drop out. like our health insurance system. as more fall out - the more it will cost, and then more will fall out.
Been saying that since my job was shipped to India.
Weakest holiday season in years Many stores suffer big sales misses in December, but Wal-Mart and Costco benefit from cash-strapped consumers shopping for discounts.
EW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Retailers reported deep declines in their December sales Thursday, reflecting a 2007 holiday shopping season that is turning out to be one of the weakest in years.
"These numbers are bad because consumers are clearly seeing some pain here," Ken Perkins, president of sales tracker Retail Metrics, said.
According to Perkins, the holiday season started off strong as shoppers lapped up juicy discounts on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving which traditionally marks the start of the November-December gift-buying marathon which can account for as much as half of retailers' annual profits and sales.
Recession may already be here Economists shift from wondering if there will be a recession to asking if the U.S. economy has already shifted into reverse.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The question for many economists is not if the U.S. economy will fall into a recession. It's whether it already has.
The formal recognition of a start of a recession probably wouldn't come for at least six months if not more than a year, as official judges from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) pour through various economic readings.
But top economists from two of the major Wall Street firms - Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs - say recession is likely already here.
The tipping point for both economists was the report released last Friday that showed a sharp jump in the unemployment rate in December, coupled with little growth.
"Friday's employment report strongly suggests that an official recession has arrived," wrote David Rosenberg, North American economist for Merrill, in a note this week entitled "Recession a reality."
He wrote that history points to a recession when the average length of the work week fell in back-to-back quarters, as it did in the third and fourth quarters of 2007. And he said at no time in the past 60 years has there been a half-percentage point climb in the unemployment rate from the low point without a recession following. The latest unemployment reading stands at 5.0 percent, up from 4.4 percent in March.
"Online Holiday Sales Up 20%, Total Retail Almost 5% Over Last Year Posted January 7th, 2008 by Jack Loechner
Online Holiday Sales Up 20%, Total Retail Almost 5% Over Last Year
According to an update from comScore, Inc. for the 57 days of the 2007 holiday season (November 1 - December 27, nearly $28 billion has been spent online during the season-to-date, marking a 19-percent gain versus the corresponding days last year.
And, a follow-up report by Internet Retailer through December 29th, puts retail sales for the week ended Dec. 29 up 14% over the comparable week a year ago, according to the National Retail Sales Estimate compiled by ShopperTrak RCT Corp. Foot traffic to stores was up 6.9% over last year.
The late shopping push puts retail sales on track to reach the 3.6% gain in overall retail sales for the holiday season. By contrast, web measurement firm comScore Networks has projected a 20% increase in holiday online sales."
The US just after WWII had just 1/6th of the worlds population was making ½ of the worlds products. I heard that on a TV show this morning.
I wonder how those stats hold up now?
Trade Deficit Surged in November
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Jan 11, 8:39 AM (ET)
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER p {margin:12px 0px 0px 0px;} WASHINGTON (AP) - The U.S. trade deficit in November surged to the highest level in 14 months, reflecting record imports of foreign oil. The deficit with China declined slightly while the weak dollar boosted exports to another record high. The Commerce Department reported that the trade deficit, the gap between imports and exports, jumped by 9.3 percent, to $63.1 billion. The imbalance was much larger than the $60 billion that had been expected. The increase was driven by a 16.3 percent surge in America's foreign oil bill, which climbed to an all-time high of $34.4 billion as the per barrel price of imported crude reached new records. With oil prices last week touching $100 per barrel, analysts are forecasting higher oil bills in future months.
By JEANNINE AVERSA  (AP) Jessica Quintana, left, buys a shirt at a Macy's in Denver in this Dec. 19, 2007, file photo.... Full Image
p {margin:12px 0px 0px 0px;} WASHINGTON (AP) - Consumer confidence fell to an all-time low as worries about jobs, energy bills and home foreclosures darkened people's feelings about the country's economic health and their own financial well-being. According to the RBC Cash Index, confidence tumbled to a mark of 56.3 in early January. That compares with a reading of 65.9 in December - and a benchmark of 100 - and was the worst since the index began in 2002. "People are anxious because everything sounds pretty awful these days," said Bill Cheney, chief economist at John Hancock Financial Services Group. Economists cited several factors for consumers' gloomy outlook: 
_Hiring practically stalled in December, pushing the unemployment rate to 5 percent, a two-year high, the government reported last week. _The meltdown in the housing market has dragged down home values and made people feel less wealthy. _Harder-to-get credit has made it difficult for some to make big-ticket purchases. _High energy prices are squeezing wallets and pocketbooks. _There has been much hand-wringing on Wall Street and Main Street as to whether all these problems will plunge the country into recession.  (AP) Chart shows consumer confidence for the past 13 months; 1c x 3 1/4 inches; 46.5 mm x 82.6 mm Full Image
"Consumers are gloomy. The confidence reading suggests that people believe bad times are upon us," said Richard Yamarone, economist at Argus Research. Over the past year, consumer confidence has eroded sharply as housing and credit woes took their toll. Last January, confidence stood at a solid 95.3. The index is based on the results of the international polling firm Ipsos. The White House is exploring a rescue plan, possibly including a tax cut, to aid the ailing economy. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, criticized for not doing enough, pledged on Thursday to keep lowering interest rates. They are expected to drop by as much as one-half of a percentage point when central bank policymakers meet later this month. The public is giving President Bush low marks for his economic stewardship. His approval rating on the economy dipped slightly to 33 percent in January, from 36 percent in December, according to a separate Associated Press-Ipsos poll. His overall job-approval rating was 34 percent, compared with 36 percent last month. Individuals' sentiments about the economy and their own financial fortunes over the next six months actually fell into negative territory in early January. This gauge came in at a negative 8.2 percent. That was the weakest showing since right after the Gulf Coast hurricanes in August 2005.
By JOE McDONALD  (AP) Chart shows China's global trade surplus since 1994; 1c x 3 inches; 46.5 mm x 76.2 mm Full Image
p {margin:12px 0px 0px 0px;} BEIJING (AP) - China's trade surplus soared nearly 50 percent in 2007 to a record, despite safety worries about Chinese products and a slowdown in export growth late in the year, according to government data released Friday. The sharp rise could add to pressure on Beijing to act on currency controls and import barriers, possibly giving ammunition to U.S. lawmakers who are calling for trade sanctions. The country's annual trade surplus - or the amount exports exceed imports - ballooned to $262.2 billion, up 47.7 percent from 2006, the General Administration of Customs said. That was below the $300 billion figure forecast by some economists but reflected strong demand for low-cost Chinese exports at a time of concern about the safety of products, ranging from toothpaste and seafood to tires and toys. 
"The overall number actually was lower than what we expected, and I suspect it had something to do with, partly, the U.S. story," said Citigroup economist Yiping Huang, referring to recent weaker American retail spending, especially during the key Christmas holiday.
This needs to be fisked just a little bit.. Steve, remember the papers and AP reporters are trying to sell their stories/papers.. Kinda like if it bleeds it leads mentality in TV
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER First paragraph.. selective journalism at it's finest A. (Deficit highest level) What kind of report/study or anything is based off of a 14 month timeline? B. (Trade deficit) jumped by 9.3 percent, to $63.1 billion, larger than the $60 billion expected. (Sounds bad.. Hmm 1 B2 Stealth Bomber costs 2.2 Billion dollars.. Our economy / budget is so large most people cant even grasp it's size.
C. Consumer Confidence Sinks to Record Low: "darkened people's feelings" So some people are actually paying attention to what they're spending and maybe .. Define darkened feelings, where does that fall between "oh snit we're all gonna die and things are so good I can't stop smiling?
D. RBC Cash Index (oddly nothing about cash or money but another confidence tracker. Canadian to boot: Tumbled to 56.3 in Jan, compare with 65.9 in December -- worst since the index began in 2002. So almost a custom report/index created post 9/11.. Erasing any and all real historic benchmarks (late60's, 70's, early 80s)
E."People are anxious because everything sounds pretty awful these days," said Bill Cheney, Well what do you expect when most people only read the surface of the crap that AP (articles like these emails is all they see)
F.Economists cited several factors for consumers' gloomy outlook: (this should be fun)
_Hiring practically stalled in December, pushing the unemployment rate to 5 percent, a two-year high, the government reported last week. (This is very standard, end of year accounting probably accounts for about 80% of this. Also nice to note the bar has somehow been raised.. 5% unemployment was once considered "Full employment" ) _The meltdown in the housing market has dragged down home values and made people feel less wealthy. (So they pay less in taxes.. their equity may have dropped.. I'll concede this as adding to the scientific "gloomy outlook") _Harder-to-get credit has made it difficult for some to make big-ticket purchases. (Sounds like a good thing.. less people living beyond their means.. Less chance of unqualified people defaulting on credit they couldn't afford.. Actually should be a positive indicator for a financial analyst) _High energy prices are squeezing wallets and pocketbooks. (Concur.. it sucks) _There has been much hand-wringing on Wall Street and Main Street as to whether all these problems will plunge the country into recession. (Wall Street being full of panicky lemmings.. well if the Fed, or the wrong group makes a rash move.. yes we could experience a short term recession.. Kinda like post Tech Bubble burst, usually most of the bloodshed will be over and done in the first 6-12 months)
(and more comments about people feeling gloomy.. not really defined, not scientific, nothing I would base policy or investing on)
(Bush's fault.. On one hand looking at tax cuts (which real economists know stimulates an economy) to lowering intrest rates. (which are almost too low now and devalue the dollar.. basically just printing more money with less value)
Individuals' sentiments about the economy and their own financial fortunes over the next six months actually fell into negative territory in early January. This gauge came in at a negative 8.2 percent. That was the weakest showing since right after the Gulf Coast hurricanes in August 2005. (Who? I can take a poll of Ace, JohnS, and a few others and come back with a positive outlook) again.. sloppy reporting.
BEIJING (AP) - China's trade surplus soared nearly 50 percent in 2007 to a record, OH NO! (you have to get past the scary teaser to get to the real information) "annual trade surplus - or the amount exports exceed imports - ballooned to $262.2 billion, up 47.7 percent from 2006 That was BELOW the $300 billion figure forecast by some economists and it should have been noted.. but I guess you got another lazy reporter. In that same report: "China's imports reflected a 20.8 percent annual increase, standing at US$955.8 billion in 2007."
edit Sorry about that Steve
[This message has been edited by Uaana (edited 01-11-2008).]
