18 pages and about 3 months ago this thread started. The DOW was around 14000. People have been arguing back and forth "the sky is falling!" "no it isn't!" and there's still no consensus. And today the DOW is around 14000.
This is the DOW over the last 3 months - roughly the time period of this thread. There was a dip down to about 12.5k, or about 10%, which has since bounced back. At the most bleak moment during this thread, it was down 10%.
And here's 2007 Year to Date:
I'm sure some people have made lots of money this year, and others have lost everything. That's all hypothetical. What counts is your own pocketbook. My sky isn't falling. Is everything perfect? Oh heck no. Is the financial world in the toilet? Also, no.
But, like a wise man once said (I'm not talking about you, Bill) "A recession is when your neighbor loses his job. A depression is when you lose YOUR job."
Originally posted by Formula88: People have been arguing back and forth "the sky is falling!"
Not one person said the sky was falling except those who for one reason or another feel the need to over state the obvious plummets in market trends to make those who are more aware of the obvious appear as blabbering idiots. IOW it's an insult to get people to quit stating the obvious...
No the sky isnt falling but the value of the dollar has fallen clean out of the sky... There... I said it!!! The sky hasnt fallen but the dollar has. It's not a matter that the volume is high or low but it does "indicate" the realease of money and lowering of interest rates BOTH of which are "feel good moves" designed to get this type of response from investors. It's a false indication.
The "markets feelings" are based on reports of (economic health) income from business, pay to employees, consumer purchases which are based on the flow of money, who has it, who lost it and what can one get with it. What it doesnt indicate is what one can buy with the dollar and that makes the market VERY much out of touch with the "value" of the dollar and what it means to the average J. Q. public working man.
Oil is driving costs of EVERYTHING UP... thats inflation.
Pay is not keeping up with that inflation... We got less money and what money we do have buys less and less... thats depression.
Ostriches bury their heads in the sand and continue to believe everything is just fine fine fine. And for them it is.... for now.
[This message has been edited by 84Bill (edited 10-16-2007).]
LFC still holding onto past gains @ 96.03. China index stock FXI at $202.94...wow! Not bad if you got in under $100 bucks in three months flat or even @131 per share. A few bucks lost @109.71 RIMM (somebody rated it over-rated). CSCO still holding @32.79
LFC @ 103.49, China Index stock FXI @ 213.31, RIMM @ 113.43, & CSCO @ 32.48
The China stocks are raising at a alarming rate. I think it's time to dump some of the gains.
Originally posted by 84Bill: ....... Oil is driving costs of EVERYTHING UP... thats inflation.
Pay is not keeping up with that inflation... We got less money and what money we do have buys less and less... thats depression. ........
while some may argue the technical definition of "inflation" - you are 100% corroect with this. there are few things that have not gone up in price due to our new found doubled energy costs. and, pay has not gone up, because high energy costs dont merit pay raises.
it does seem that energy costs are the root of the problem.
Originally posted by fierobear: It's called a "common theme"
Lame..
Back on topic...
After '87, today's fear is the mini-crash 20 years after the Dow plunged 22% in a day, Wall Streeters aren't too worried about a repeat. But what about a smaller version of that disaster?
Think the credit crunch is over? Think again Despite what Wall Street boosters would have us believe, the credit crunch is far from over. Fortune's Peter Eavis outlines the five steps that need to happen before we can say the end has come.
NEW YORK (Fortune) -- Careful optimism about the U.S. economy and financial system has given way to a resurgence of unease in the last couple of days, prompted by an announcement Monday of an extraordinary plan to pump liquidity into an important part of the debt markets and less-than-upbeat speeches from Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson.
Suddenly, the credit crunch is being talked about as a serious phenomenon again. But, as is always the case on Wall Street, it won't be long before a gaggle of self-interested players make their way to center stage to tell us that recovery is just around the corner, seizing on any halfway optimistic shred of data to bolster their case.
So, in an effort to stay grounded amid the hype, it's worth making a shortlist of things that need to start happening before anyone can talk about the credit crunch coming to an end.
First: way more transparency. The movers and shakers need to tell us what's really happening and show that they understand the seriousness of the credit crunch
yes - one of the funny parts of the "credit crunch" is there really is no viable fix.
you certainly cant loan money for lower interest than what someone could make with a stupidly safe investment. otherwise, everyone could just borrow money, and, at the end of the year, have more than they started with.
anyways - we should do either let the people screw themselves or try to regulate the access to credit. I am mostly in the "let them screw themselves" camp. like all other temptations - you just feel so much better about yourself when you conquor your weaknesses.
another thing people need to remember - credit cards are unsecured - you dont HAVE to pay them. DONT DONT DONT go and get a secured loan to pay them off. while you will save your "credit rating" - yippie - that is it. you will be spending the next 20 years with your "credit rating" - but broke. bad credit & having cash is much better. so - you either pay the man and he says "good boy" OR you keep your cash, and the man says "bad boy". what ya saving your credit rating for? to borrow more? dig a bigger hole?
yes, I am sure US stocks will crap even more, as investors move their investments to the money making foriegn stocks, because their return keeps getting better & better as the US dollar falls. you see this happening already in mutuals funds.
To the folks who are perpetuating the "gloom and doom"...you *do* realize that a lot of what happens in the economy is due to the "self fulfilling prophecy"? To keep repeating how bad things are, your perception gets worse, you *act* on that perception, and...things get worse, just like you said.
People *can* and do talk and scare themselves into recession.
I love the economy. The jobs keep flowing in, my portfolio is up 4% on the year so far and over 200% from its lowest point after the .com burst. When I sell my house it'll be all profit. Man the world is great and its getting better. For me at least but then again I have a clue.
To the folks who are perpetuating the "gloom and doom"...you *do* realize that a lot of what happens in the economy is due to the "self fulfilling prophecy"? To keep repeating how bad things are, your perception gets worse, you *act* on that perception, and...things get worse, just like you said.
People *can* and do talk and scare themselves into recession.
yes, just about everything to do with an economy is a viscous circle type of thing I really dont see much wisdom in ignoring potential problems. and, seeing my foriegn investments are growing like mad, does make me belive that others will want that too. or am I thinking the wrong way? I don't think I am "doom & gloom". I know I will be fine. I just like it more when those around me are fine too. overall - I would say once the dollar drops another 20% - all will be good. I dont see that as doom & gloom.
NEW YORK (AP) — The calculus of living paycheck to paycheck in America is getting harder. What used to last four days might last half that long now. Pay the gas bill, but skip breakfast. Eat less for lunch so the kids can have a healthy dinner.
Across the nation, Americans are increasingly unable to stretch their dollars to the next payday as they juggle higher rent, food and energy bills. It's starting to affect middle-income working families as well as the poor, and has reached the point of affecting day-to-day calculations of merchants like Wal-Mart Stores Inc., 7-Eleven Inc. and Family Dollar Stores Inc.
Food pantries, which distribute foodstuffs to the needy, are reporting severe shortages and reduced government funding at the very time that they are seeing a surge of new people seeking their help.
While economists debate whether the country is headed for a recession, some say the financial stress is already the worst since the last downturn at the start of this decade.
From Family Dollar to Wal-Mart, merchants have adjusted their product mix and pricing accordingly. Sales data show a marked and more prolonged drop in spending in the days before shoppers get their paychecks, when they buy only the barest essentials before splurging around payday.
"It's pretty pronounced," said Kiley Rawlins, a spokeswoman at Family Dollar. "It seems like to us, customers are running out of food products, paper towels sooner in the month."
Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, said the imbalance in spending before and after payday in July was the biggest it has ever seen, though the drop-off wasn't as steep in August.
It's a damn shame some people are out of touch with reality.... Such is the American way I spose.
Nope, I'm quite in touch with reality. I invest in real estate. My business is getting it's ass kicked right now. But the difference between a guy like you and a guy like me is that I don't get on the internet and spend all f***ing day saying "THE SKY IS FALLING! THE ECONOMY IS COLLAPSING!". I spend my time figuring out how to retool and keep going.
Funny most of those that are saying the economy is doing great are listed as company owners in their own profile.
Of course they think the economy is doing great, they own business.
But those who live prom paycheck to paycheck or not doing quite so well, now are they.
I'm a business owner. When the economy is down, our income goes down. And NO, we are NOT all independantly weathly. I don't get a paycheck every week. If business isn't good, I get NOTHING. Get it?
I don't know where people like you get the idea that owning a business is just like printing money.
Originally posted by fierobear: I'm a business owner. When the economy is down, our income goes down. And NO, we are NOT all independantly weathly. I don't get a paycheck every week. If business isn't good, I get NOTHING. Get it?
I don't know where people like you get the idea that owning a business is just like printing money.
And I don’t know how people like you can say the economy is fine.
And as far as you getting nothing, to bad a few CEO’s didn’t get nothing when business was bad, maybe they would not be sending all our jobs overseas.
I never said all business owners were wealthy, just that they had more disposable income than most Americans don’t anymore.
Then there are the students who know nothing here who are looking at this downturn in the economy as nothing. They don’t know what they are talking about period.
Wall Street Remains Bullish Despite Data 
Saturday October 20, 3:39 AM EDT
NEW YORK (AP) — With all the predicaments facing the markets these days — credit growing scarcer, oil near a record $90 a barrel, home prices in the dumps — it would be logical if investors were shoving money under their mattresses, instead of into stocks. But logic doesn't always prevail on Wall Street. The Dow Jones industrial average plunged almost 400 points on Friday, its fifth-straight loss for the week. Yet, Wall Street's pundits did not waver on projections that share prices will rise again after companies finish reporting quarterly financial results. "There is a lot more people who are bullish than bearish, and there's a mentality that even a pullback would create an opportunity to buy," said Todd Leone, managing director of equity trading at Cowen & Co.
Why is Wall Street so optimistic, even though stocks took a hit Friday, with the Dow dropping 366.94, or 2.64 percent, to 13,522.02?
And I don’t know how people like you can say the economy is fine.
And as far as you getting nothing, to bad a few CEO’s didn’t get nothing when business was bad, maybe they would not be sending all our jobs overseas.
I never said all business owners were wealthy, just that they had more disposable income than most Americans don’t anymore.
Then there are the students who know nothing here who are looking at this downturn in the economy as nothing. They don’t know what they are talking about period. Why is Wall Street so optimistic, even though stocks took a hit Friday, with the Dow dropping 366.94, or 2.64 percent, to 13,522.02?
Whew! THAT was painful to read. And, more painful to understand.
Why do do you think that students know nothing of the economy? Because they have studied it and have an education in it? Steve, economics is a science. Those "kids" probably understand the economy far better than you do.
Explain a bear market and then a bull market to us. Then explain why each one is good and each one is bad. I bet that student can. And, that is why the student isn't worried about any "downturn" like you are.
So is it a "downturn" in the economy or is the economy "bad"? Or, is the economy in a "recession"? You can't use all those descriptive words, Steve. What is a recession? When you get that definition and understand that definition, maybe you'll see we ARE NOT in a recession.
(Unfortunately, I'm off to class again and have almost zero internet access for the next 8 days. I guess I'll read your response or lack there of next week.)
Originally posted by fierobear: Nope, I'm quite in touch with reality. I invest in real estate. My business is getting it's ass kicked right now. But the difference between a guy like you and a guy like me is that I don't get on the internet and spend all f***ing day saying "THE SKY IS FALLING! THE ECONOMY IS COLLAPSING!". I spend my time figuring out how to retool and keep going.
Philadelphia exchange may go on block A sale of the Philadelphia Stock Exchange, worth about $600 million, could be announced over the next few weeks, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Originally posted by aceman: Whew! THAT was painful to read. And, more painful to understand.
Why do do you think that students know nothing of the economy? Because they have studied it and have an education in it? Steve, economics is a science. Those "kids" probably understand the economy far better than you do.
Explain a bear market and then a bull market to us. Then explain why each one is good and each one is bad. I bet that student can. And, that is why the student isn't worried about any "downturn" like you are.
So is it a "downturn" in the economy or is the economy "bad"? Or, is the economy in a "recession"? You can't use all those descriptive words, Steve. What is a recession? When you get that definition and understand that definition, maybe you'll see we ARE NOT in a recession.
(Unfortunately, I'm off to class again and have almost zero internet access for the next 8 days. I guess I'll read your response or lack there of next week.)
re·ces·sion [ri sésh’n] (plural re·ces·sions) n 1. economics decline in economic activity: a period, shorter than a depression, during which there is a decline in economic trade and prosperity
re·ces·sion [ri sésh’n] (plural re·ces·sions) n 1. economics decline in economic activity: a period, shorter than a depression, during which there is a decline in economic trade and prosperity
And what would you call what is going on right now Ace?
We have had many more people loosing their home, small investors loosing their shirt. Companies profits falling. No we are doing just fine right Ace.
I wouldn't call it a recession. Nor, would a majority, if not all, economists. (You need at least 6 month of a majority of economic indicators to consistently tank. And, we have not hit that yet.) Our GDP and trade numbers are still very strong. MANY, MANY economic indicators are very strong. We have people LOSING (not loosing) their homes because they've been idiots. What small investors are LOSING (not loosing) their shirts? My Best Buy stock is doing just fine. One of my retirement accounts is based soley off of the stock market. It's giving me double digit returns! I'm a small investor. Company profits are falling..........IT'S STILL A PROFIT!!!!!!!
CNN did a poll recently. 46% of Americans thought we were in a recession. 51% thought we were not. Economists came on and said just because the common American THINKS we're in a recession does not make it so.
75% of the stock market is small investors. Most of those in mutual funds for retirement. And how can they be looooosing their shirts when stocks are up? The 300+ point drop was about 2% of the total market. And that was a sell of on profits from the previous gain. Remember market is hitting all time highs. When that much is gained some people are going to skim off the top and go buy a big TV. Or maybe move it to the collage fund for their 18 month old.
The people looooooosing their homes, you know the ones they couldn't afford to begin with, due to not understanding what it is they signed their name to is about 15 of the housing market. A 1% cropping isn't a big deal to the big picture. And just because they bought their house at the peak of the market and now lost 5-10% of its worth unless they are trying to flip that house they still have many years of value growth in their home. Remember not all home market regions are going down. Some are stagnant and other are going up.
[This message has been edited by Phranc (edited 10-20-2007).]
Well, I was being a little sarcastic, but I'd love it if SNL would do a part where people were practicing "jumping out of windows" onto a bed filled with fire ants, hehe. On serious note, the reason why nobody is jumping out of windows is, "this years market gains." Besides, most are or should be diversified. I was currently in retail a year ago, but pick over-seas stocks. Good tech stocks aren't bad either and have held up during the financial/home builders/banking stocks.
That being said, I'm slowly getting out of the market. I think there's going to be a bubble in China before the Olympics if not soon after. If it happens...we'll see many people literally jumping out of buildings.
The people looooooosing their homes, you know the ones they couldn't afford to begin with, due to not understanding what it is they signed their name to is about 15 of the housing market. A 1% cropping isn't a big deal to the big picture. And just because they bought their house at the peak of the market and now lost 5-10% of its worth unless they are trying to flip that house they still have many years of value growth in their home. Remember not all home market regions are going down. Some are stagnant and other are going up.
I think in CA it's the Sacramento areas that being hit really hard. Southern CA too such as San Bernadeno and Ventura counties. In SF areas, the prices slowed, but are starting to go up.
Iraq war's creeping costs Even at $415 billion, the war's pricetag doesn't threaten to derail the economy. But it's making a stealthy appearance in mortgage rates, fuel prices and other indicators. By Steve Hargreaves, CNNMoney.com staff writer October 23 2007: 6:01 PM EDT
The Iraq war may be funded largely with Uncle Sam's borrowed cash, but don't think American consumers will escape without taking a hit in the wallet.
From steeper mortgage payments to higher fuel prices, the cost of the war is already starting to sink in.
Bank woes bring out the bears Futures point to weak open as uncertainty over Merrill Lynch's subprime hit grows; overseas markets slump LONDON (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stock futures were weaker Wednesday, as investors grew uncertain ahead of Merrill Lynch's earnings.
Concerns that Merrill (Charts, Fortune 500) may suffer a bigger loss than initially estimated due to risky mortgage bets weighed on sentiment. Merrill is due to report its results before the market open.
Staring into Countrywide's abyss Giant mortgage lender's third-quarter results will offer a view into the depth of the problems facing lenders, housing industry and the economy as a whole.
is it the cost of the war or the cost of the reconstruction?
while I know war aint cheap - I know the soldeirs would be getting paid either way. and the equipment would be used in training if not fighting in the field.
and, arent we getting any $$$ out of the oil? or is that infrastructure still broken?
Merrill's $3.4 billion balance sheet bomb In three short weeks, the Wall Street giant's losses grew from $4.5 billion to nearly $8 billion. Fortune's Peter Eavis shows what went wrong.
LFC still holding onto past gains @ 96.03. China index stock FXI at $202.94...wow! Not bad if you got in under $100 bucks in three months flat or even @131 per share. A few bucks lost @109.71 RIMM (somebody rated it over-rated). CSCO still holding @32.79
Geesz, this is crazy! Now EMC has reached a all-time high since 9/11 & AAPL has shot through the roof. The 4-horsemen are ridn' strong.
Ya we are doing just so well. The dollar is dropping like a rock, the housing prices are dropping in over 75% of the Markets, the feds are dropping interest rates to spur investments.
US Stock Futures Dip, Suggest Lower Open 
Tuesday October 30, 8:25 AM EDT
NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stock futures fell Tuesday, indicating a lower start to the regular session, as the Federal Reserve prepares to start a two-day meeting on interest rates. Wall Street has been calling for a rate cut following the Fed's half-point reduction in September, and investors widely expect the central bank to deliver a quarter-point cut a the meeting's conclusion on Wednesday. But inflation remains a threat, with oil prices near record highs and the dollar in sharp decline, and there is no certainty the Fed will lower interest rates. The price of commodities from crude oil to corn has risen as the dollar has lost ground to other currencies, adding to the appeal of raw materials as an investment. But higher commodity prices spell inflation in other areas, from gas prices to food prices. However, those arguing for lower interest rates say such a stimulant is needed to prevent a housing slump and credit market troubles from hurting economic growth.
United States Steel Corp. on Tuesday said third-quarter earnings dropped nearly 36 percent as concerns about the economy's strength affected its major markets, leading the steelmaker's results to miss Wall Street expecatations. Dow Jones industrial average futures lost 35.00, or 0.30 percent, to 13,872.00. Standard & Poor's 500 index futures fell 5.40, or 0.35 percent, to 1,541.60. Nasdaq 100 index futures fell 9.00, or 0.41 percent, to 2,206.50. The Dow rose about 64 points on Monday, while broader stock
NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. home prices fell nationwide in August for the eighth consecutive month, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index released Tuesday. And things could get worse, said Yale economist Robert Shiller, who helped create the index. "There is really no positive news in today's report," said Shiller, chief economist for MacroMarkets LLC which collaborated with S&P on the indicator. Home prices as measured by the index have fallen by more every month since the beginning of the year. August is the 21st month of decelerating returns. An index of 10 U.S. cities fell 5 percent in August from a year ago. That was the biggest drop since June 1991. The lowest ever was a decline of 6.3 percent in April 1991. A broader index of 20 cities fell 4.4 percent in August over last year, with 15 of 20 cities reporting that prices fell. Housing prices have been a key worry for consumers, and the effect of the slowdown alongside the summer's steep decline in credit availability, has many worried that the economy will go into recession. Many economists expect the Federal Reserve will cut rates again at the end of a two-day meeting that starts Tuesday, after a bigger-than-expected half-point cut last month.
CINCINNATI (AP) — Consumer products maker Procter & Gamble Co. said Tuesday its first-quarter profit rose 14 percent, but said rising commodity, energy and product investment costs will hurt its second-quarter margins. Its shares sank more than 3 percent in premarket trading
And even companies with profits are saying the economy is killing them.
But ya we are doing great.
Housing prices have dropped over the last 8 months, so we are in great shape. The biggest investment for the majority of all Americans is their home.
People here can say what ever they like the American economy is going down the toilet. Sure some are still doing OK, some will always be doing OK. But right now most of America is doing shitty.
------------------ Technology is great when it works, and one big pain in the ass when it doesn't. Detroit iron rules all the rest are just toys.
Some on Wall Street fear the economy could slip into recession if no action is taken. The Conference Board said its gauge of consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level in two years in October, coming in at 95.6 following a revised 99.5 in September. Analysts had expected a reading of 99.5 for this month. Merrill Lynch & Co. Chairman and Chief Executive Stan O'Neal on Tuesday retired as expected after the stock brokerage last week posted the biggest quarterly loss in its 93-year history last week. Alberto Cribiore, a director since 2003, was named as interim non-executive chairman.
CDOs, or collateralized debt obligations, are complex instruments that combine slices of different kinds of risk. It was Merrill's bet on CDOs, and the subprime mortgages underpinning many of them, that proved to be O'Neal's downfall. Analysts have said this week that whoever replaces O'Neal may have to write down another $4 billion worth of bad investments in the fourth quarter. Merrill Lynch said that co-presidents and chief operating officers Ahmass Fakahany and Gregory Fleming will continue in those positions. Fleming will lead Merrill's front office, such as its brokerage and investment banking sides. Fakahany, a close confidant of O'Neal, will lead back-office functions such as finance and human resources. It was not known how much O'Neal would receive as an exit package, though there have been some reports it would be nearly $200 million. He was paid roughly $48 million salary in 2006, and had $160 million in stock and retirement benefits, according to James Reda, founder of compensation consultancy James F. Reda & Associates.
