http://www.dogsofthedow.com/dow1900log.htm

A log scale for the Dow since 1900. This weeks/months/year fluctuation is just a blip on the historical chart.

quote Originally posted by Old Lar: http://www.dogsofthedow.com/dow1900log.htm A log scale for the Dow since 1900. This weeks/months/year fluctuation is just a blip on the historical chart.

I guess it is rather conceited to even compare ourselves to the suffering that existed in 29. Oh woo is me. We have it so rough.

quote Originally posted by connecticutFIERO: We're still down considerably for the week. We'll see what happens come closing bell on Friday.

Down less than 7/10 of one percent is "considerably"?

John Stricker

quote Originally posted by connecticutFIERO: We're still down considerably for the week. We'll see what happens come closing bell on Friday.

And even then...

[quote]
The most famous crash, the Wall Street Crash of 1929, happened on October 29, 1929. The economy had been growing robustly for most of the so-called Roaring Twenties. It was a technological golden age as innovations such as radio, automobiles, aviation, telephone and the power grid were deployed and adopted. Companies who had pioneered these advances like Radio Corporation of America (RCA), and General Motors saw their stocks soar. Financial corporations also did well as Wall Street bankers floated mutual fund companies (then known as investment trusts) like the Goldman Sachs Trading Corporation. Investors were infatuated with the returns available in the stock market especially with the use of leverage through margin debt. On August 24, 1921, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stood at a value of 63.9. By September 3, 1929, it had risen more than sixfold, touching 381.2. It would not regain this level for another twenty five years. Even during the summer of that year it was clear that the economy was contracting and the stock market soon went through a series of unsettling price declines in early October. These declines fed investor anxiety and events soon came to a head. October 24 (known as Black Thursday) was the first in a number of increasingly shocking market drops. This was followed swiftly by Black Monday on October 28 and Black Tuesday on October 29.
[quote]

Interesting... most of the world market(S) seem to be in the toilet this morning....
Index Change %Change Level Last Update *

Australia ASX 100 -71.00 -1.40% 5,001.60 9/10 5:00pm
Australia ASX All Ords -86.90 -1.38% 6,209.60 9/10 5:00pm
Australia ASX Mid-cap 50 -82.70 -1.29% 6,330.20 9/10 5:00pm
Hong Kong Hang Seng +17.09 +0.07% 23,999.70 9/10 5:59pm
Hong Kong HSCC Red Chip +6.51 +0.14% 4,754.15 9/10 4:26pm
Japan Nikkei 225 -357.19 -2.22% 15,764.97 9/10 4:30pm

Europe
Index Change %Change Level Last Update *

Belgium Bel 20 -5.25 -0.12% 4,222.22 9/10 2:08pm
Europe DJ Stoxx -4.11 -0.11% 3,680.45 9/10 2:08pm
Europe Euronext 100 -1.21 -0.12% 971.25 9/10 2:08pm
Europe Euronext 150 -10.77 -0.59% 1,822.73 9/10 2:08pm
France CAC -10.48 -0.19% 5,419.62 9/10 2:08pm
France SBF 80 -24.21 -0.37% 6,561.60 9/10 2:08pm
France SBF 120 -8.62 -0.22% 3,956.69 9/10 2:08pm
Germany DAX -12.72 -0.17% 7,423.91 9/10 2:08pm
Germany MDAX -62.95 -0.63% 9,958.04 9/10 2:08pm
Germany TECDAX -2.98 -0.33% 908.43 9/10 2:08pm
Netherlands AEX -0.53 -0.10% 516.90 9/10 2:08pm
Norway BRIX +10.96 +0.29% 3,818.38 9/7 12:00am
Norway OSE Industry -7.33 -0.43% 425.90 9/10 2:07pm
Sweden OMX -30.72 -2.58% 1,159.95 9/7 12:00am
Sweden OMSX All Share -9.61 -2.49% 376.66 9/7 12:00am
UK FTSE 100 -12.20 -0.20% 6,179.00 9/10 1:08pm
UK FTSE All Shares -6.29 -0.20% 3,197.51 9/10 1:08pm
UK FTSE Eurotop -4.39 -0.14% 3,112.98 9/10 1:08pm
UK FTSE Techmark -6.98 -0.42% 1,662.85 9/10 1:07pm

Americas
Index Change %Change Level Last Update *

Canada TSE 300 -144.48 -1.05% 13,651.21 9/7 12:00am
Canada CDNX -7.39 -0.27% 2,697.07 9/7 12:00am
Canada S&P/TSX 60 -8.93 -1.12% 791.75 9/7 12:00am

Even the dow closed down almost 2% on friday.

[This message has been edited by 84Bill (edited 09-10-2007).]

quote Originally posted by 84Bill: Interesting... most of the world market(S) seem to be in the toilet this morning....

Still hoping for that global meltdown, so you can say you were right?

quote Originally posted by fierobear: Still hoping for that global meltdown, so you can say you were right?

I said, "Interesting... most of the world market(S) seem to be in the toilet this morning...."

quote Originally posted by fierobear: Still hoping for that global meltdown, so you can say you were right?

I am hoping for it so I when someone says I'm krazy for buying all this ammo I can say I was right. Now drop them chickens and picks yer hands up off my lettuce patch,leave the womans and get to skedaddling out of here before I ventilate your starvin ass.

[This message has been edited by pokeyfiero (edited 09-10-2007).]

quote Originally posted by pokeyfiero: I am hoping for it so I when someone says I'm krazy for buying all this ammo I can say I was right. Now drop them chickens and picks yer hands up off my lettuce patch,leave the womans and get to skedaddling out of here before I ventilate your starvin ass.

3 weeks. I figure about 3 weeks you have to be able to outlast everyone else before they starve.

Massive Motown foreclosure auction
Nearly 700 homes will be sold during a three-day auction in Detroit.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/0...stversion=2007091117


Stocks set to back off
Futures point to weak open as Japan, record oil prices chill investors.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/0...kswatch_ny/index.htm


Euro hits all-time high against dollar
Weak U.S. employment reading and speculation that Federal Reserve will cut interest rates pressures greenback.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/0....dollar.ap/index.htm

quote Originally posted by fierobear: 3 weeks. I figure about 3 weeks you have to be able to outlast everyone else before they starve.

I never really thought about it like that, but you are probably fairly close on the time frame before things reach a fever-pitch in a meltdown type scenario. I know people think it can't happen during their generation, but I always try to remember that if you look at a massive disaster graph starting with the beginning of recorded history you would probably notice that it would be very fluctuating. Showing countless fallout, famine, and death. I am sure few of them thought it could happen in their lifetimes either, or else they all would have made it out in one piece.

It most certainly will happen again, just maybe not in our lifetime, no way to know for sure, but it definately pays to be prepared at all times I think. That is just good survival trait. If you are an educated school teacher, doctor, CEO, Cop, everyone gets a level playing field in a disaster, and money usually doesnt count for anything. That goes not just for economic collapse, but earthquakes, floods, fires etc.

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.

quote Originally posted by fierobear: 3 weeks. I figure about 3 weeks you have to be able to outlast everyone else before they starve.

It's those who arent that you need to be concerned with and chances are they will be well armed too.

quote Originally posted by 84Bill: It's those who arent that you need to be concerned with and chances are they will be well armed too.

ya, i thought about that too. Usually when enough people who dont have what they need for survival except firearms get together, you can get quite a nasty group.

Euro again hits record against dollar
Expectations of a Fed rate cut and market volatility sends euro into record territory for second straight session.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/0....dollar.ap/index.htm

Wall Street's new worry: Oil
Higher crude prices and falling dollar expected to pressure stocks as Wall Street awaits Fed meeting.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/0...kswatch_ny/index.htm


The mystery behind surging oil prices
Latest inventory report shows big drop in crude. But overall supplies are still high, and U.S. economic growth is slowing. So what's pushing prices up to $80 a barrel?
http://money.cnn.com/2007/0...ts/oil_eia/index.htm

quote Originally posted by FieroMonkey: ya, i thought about that too. Usually when enough people who dont have what they need for survival except firearms get together, you can get quite a nasty group.

That's why you need one of these

[This message has been edited by fierobear (edited 09-13-2007).]

is that even legal in CA, and if so what is the price. That sure beats the hell out of a 12 gauge pump

quote Originally posted by FieroMonkey: is that even legal in CA, and if so what is the price. That sure beats the hell out of a 12 gauge pump

I have no idea. I doubt it. But who says you have to register it?

quote Originally posted by fierobear: I have no idea. I doubt it. But who says you have to register it?

I believe it was Dianne Feinstein that opposes gun ownership, but has a permit to carry. Nice, huh?

quote Originally posted by fierobear: I believe it was Dianne Feinstein that opposes gun ownership, but has a permit to carry. Nice, huh?

She may be a hypocrite, but she's not stupid. She's got her guns - now ban everyone else's.

quote Originally posted by fierobear: I have no idea. I doubt it. But who says you have to register it?

i guess I am either too white or suburbanite but I have no idea how to purchase a gun in CA without registering it. I will say that the ones who have the unregistered guns are likely to be the only ones still holding any if/when they are eventually banned altogether. Would be nice to have one under the radar like gang members do.

Banks borrowing more from Fed
Last month, the Fed cut the interest it charges for direct loans to banks.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/0...rrowing.ap/index.htm

Looks like the fed will decrease interest for banks to allow them to rcoup losses over the junk mortgage crisis.

quote Originally posted by FieroMonkey: i guess I am either too white or suburbanite but I have no idea how to purchase a gun in CA without registering it. I will say that the ones who have the unregistered guns are likely to be the only ones still holding any if/when they are eventually banned altogether. Would be nice to have one under the radar like gang members do.

Simple buy a gun from a private party, not a gun dealer.

NICS check does not get done and the gun does not get registered to you.

------------------
Technology is great when it works,
and one big pain in the ass when it doesn't.
Detroit iron rules all the rest are just toys.

quote Originally posted by 84fiero123: Simple buy a gun from a private party, not a gun dealer. NICS check does not get done and the gun does not get registered to you.

it isn't like buying a car whre the previous owner turns in a filled out document stating it was sold to purchaser "name_______" ?
wow

quote Originally posted by Formula88: She may be a hypocrite, but she's not stupid. She's got her guns - now ban everyone else's.

It would seem that we agree on both points. It's the latter I have a problem with.

quote Originally posted by FieroMonkey: it isn't like buying a car whre the previous owner turns in a filled out document stating it was sold to purchaser "name_______" ? wow

No, BUT they will follow the trail right to your door form who you bought it from if was to turn up in a situation that was worth the effort. Of course if you get it from a scumbag on the streets chances are that the trail would end long before it gets to you BUT it is nice to know there is not a BAD history with a gun you have in your possession too.

I don't think there is a chance in hell the will ever try and round up all the guns in this country.

I’ve been trying to understand this statement made by many here.

quote Originally posted by Old Lar: http://www.dogsofthedow.com/dow1900log.htm A log scale for the Dow since 1900. This weeks/months/year fluctuation is just a blip on the historical chart.

Sure in 100 years it is a blip, the problem with that thought is that in a persons lifetime. The average person is 20 years old before ever even thinking about investing in anything never mind retiring.

Now lets say the average person starts investing for retirement at age 20. Retirement age is what? 65. So out of that 100 year blip we just lost 20 years, out of 65.

45 years now to invest.

Now that 100 year blip has gotten twice as big as it was.

Now figure in the all the little investments that people make over that 45 years, like cars, homes, businesses.

That takes away from the little that one can actually save towards retirement.

Cars, people don’t keep those long, and most don’t even pay off one before getting another new one.

Houses, this is another one, how many pay off one house before buying another new one? Not many.

We have become a country living on credit, when you do this you create problems that are hard to fix quickly.

So out of 45 years of investing time you have lost lets say another 10 years, or if you like, lets say the cost of all those new cars over your lifetime. So you have just lost, I’m guessing here, about $100,000 that could have been invested in your retirement fund.

So now 10 years from the 45 is now 35 years to invest towards retirement. That little blip is getting a lot bigger.

Now buying a home is supposed to be an investment, before people started to try and make money off of their homes and selling them after only owning them a few years. Then the market dropped out of the housing market. So all of those homes that you paid 250 K for are now worth less than you paid for them.

So take another 10 years worth of investment time off your 100 year blip, you now have 25 years to invest toward retirement.

Now that blip has just gotten 4 times bigger than it was in the original 100 years because we don’t invest over 100 years.

Add into that the inflation rate, bad investments, children, (ya they tend to cost a few retirement dollars), job changes, (How many people stay in one job now days?), and all the other little things, like health problems, vehicle maintenance, and everything else.

That little blip now looks like the old Blob movie, it just keeps growing and growing and growing.

------------------
Technology is great when it works,
and one big pain in the ass when it doesn't.
Detroit iron rules all the rest are just toys.

Steve, it's a little blip because you don't worry about what the market does for a month or even 2-3-6 months. The "normal" investor is there for the long haul. Take any chunk of 10 years and you'll see that the market steadily went up. No one, unless they invested in a company that just tanked or was corrupt, loses money in a long term investment. The investors that are squirmish right now are the ones that are trying to make a quick turnaround buck. If we worried, like Bill is doing in this thread, the markets would have crashed and burned a long time ago. My father's retirement was heavily dependent on the stock market. When he wanted to retire, the markets were tanking a bit so his retirement fund was tanking a bit. He worked a few more years until his retirement funds had recovered. He still wasn't going to go poor off his retirement. He just wanted a much better retirement payout.

Fed can't stop recession
Even if the central bank starts to cut rates aggressively, many of the risks for the U.S. economy are beyond its reach.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/0...sion_risks/index.htm

Global Alpha hedge fund loses 22.7% in August - the worst monthly performance in its history, according to newspaper.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/0...alpha_fund/index.htm


Credit worries back in focus
Futures weaker as liquidity crisis rattles investors, oil remains above $80 a barrel.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/0...kswatch_ny/index.htm

Pyrthian, remember we were talking about the lack of money in circulation?
This is where the problem is.

"A repricing of risk in the credit markets has tightened liquidity, making it more difficult for banks to borrow money."


Looks like the sell off is happening in the european markets... should be an interesting friday... once again.

quote Originally posted by aceman: Steve, it's a little blip because you don't worry about what the market does for a month or even 2-3-6 months. The "normal" investor is there for the long haul. Take any chunk of 10 years and you'll see that the market steadily went up. No one, unless they invested in a company that just tanked or was corrupt, loses money in a long term investment. The investors that are squirmish right now are the ones that are trying to make a quick turnaround buck. If we worried, like Bill is doing in this thread, the markets would have crashed and burned a long time ago. My father's retirement was heavily dependent on the stock market. When he wanted to retire, the markets were tanking a bit so his retirement fund was tanking a bit. He worked a few more years until his retirement funds had recovered. He still wasn't going to go poor off his retirement. He just wanted a much better retirement payout.

there are plenty of risky investments in the stock market. thats why most folk just go with mutual funds, which spread the risk over many many various stocks, and not just picking a stock, and letting it ride. you are correct in that overall, by averages, the market always grows - part of the job of inflation. but, if you you were to go on single stocks, you are taking a risk. and these days - the risks are greater than they have been. and thats part of the problem. folks need the confidence to play the game. or, they just go mutual funds. and mutual funds usually just have "modest" returns, and dont do much to drive investments in "cutting edge" stuff, which creates new jobs & industries, which drives the economy. just like everything else - the viscous circle.

This is a daily chart from one month ago:



Notice the closing price.13,025 or so. Yesterday's close. 13,425. Up 400 points over 1 month ago, or 3%. Conn, Bill, and others have been preaching of how the market is collapsing.

When? That's like me saying "It's going to rain". I'm going to be right. 100% of the time I'm going to be right. I just won't tell you WHEN it's going to rain. when the market is down 7/10 or one % the doomsdayers scream that it's a "considerable" loss. When it's up over 3% in a month, that doesn't count. 3% per month = 36% per year.

Why don't the numbers work going up as well as down, my gloomy eyed friends?

This thread began back on July 27, 2007. The market had just retreated and the "woe is us" crowd came out. They've completely neglected the fact that the market is right back where it was at that time. Moreover, they're neglecting the fact that in the last 52 weeks, the market has gone from 11,750 to 14,000, and even today is still at 13,425. That's a one year return on investment of 19%. Even at it's lowest point after the losses this summer, it STILL had a return of 7 1/4%, and to do that poorly you'd have had to sell on THE lowest day.

It's just fascinating to me that so many "liberals", those that are supposed to be for "change", and "compassionate", can get so much internal pleasure at the troubles of others, to the point they have to INVENT those troubles in their own minds and then sit on the outside looking in, thinking how unfair it is that others are making money and they aren't.

John Stricker


Notice

quote Originally posted by 84Bill: Fed can't stop recession Even if the central bank starts to cut rates aggressively, many of the risks for the U.S. economy are beyond its reach. http://money.cnn.com/2007/0...sion_risks/index.htm Global Alpha hedge fund loses 22.7% in August - the worst monthly performance in its history, according to newspaper. http://money.cnn.com/2007/0...alpha_fund/index.htm Credit worries back in focus Futures weaker as liquidity crisis rattles investors, oil remains above $80 a barrel. http://money.cnn.com/2007/0...kswatch_ny/index.htm Pyrthian, remember we were talking about the lack of money in circulation? This is where the problem is. "A repricing of risk in the credit markets has tightened liquidity, making it more difficult for banks to borrow money." Looks like the sell off is happening in the european markets... should be an interesting friday... once again.

Just watched a report showing how the inevitable lower rates from the Fed will likely deflate the US dollar by quite a bit. Might be a good idea to start taking a little money each payday and spending it on British pounds, Euro's, or something tangible like Gold.

quote Originally posted by FieroMonkey: Just watched a report showing how the inevitable lower rates from the Fed will likely deflate the US dollar by quite a bit. Might be a good idea to start taking a little money each payday and spending it on British pounds, Euro's, or something tangible like Gold.

Not a bad idea in any economy. Right now we're looking at the U.S. and Canadian dollar reaching parity. They're as close now as they've been since '77, and that wasn't the best of economic times.

Gold is good because it's somewhat inflation-proof. An ounce of gold has intrinsic value, and the dollar amount may change, but over history the buying power of an ounce of gold hasn't wavered a whole lot. Certainly less than the dollar value has. The old addage was in the 1800's, an ounce of gold could buy you a custom tailored suit, and today it still can. When I first heard that back in the 80's, it was pretty accurate.

quote Originally posted by Formula88: The old addage was in the 1800's, an ounce of gold could buy you a custom tailored suit, and today it still can.

Where can I buy a custom tailored suit for $700? That would be a pretty low rent tailor. A freaking leather letter jacket is $300.

In 1975 Gold was about $180/oz. It spiked to $750/oz in mid/early '78. It fell to $250/oz before '82. It traded between $350-$400 until 9/11/01 and it's been going up ever since due to political uncertainty.

Gold (and any other REAL commodity) CAN be a good investment, but not always. Just ask those people that bought it for $750/oz back in '78 and are still waiting to recoup their investment. Regardless of that, it in no way, shape or form tracks with the consumer price index and hasn't since we went off the gold standard.

John Stricker

Fine, John. What's your brilliant suggestion, then?

Gold price for the past 32 years. If you bought in 79, you lost money until recently and now you are breaking even. Had you bough gold in1998, that investment would have tripled.

Had you invested in the stock market, you would have made more over those 28 years 1979-2007..

[This message has been edited by Old Lar (edited 09-14-2007).]

quote Originally posted by jstricker: Where can I buy a custom tailored suit for $700? That would be a pretty low rent tailor. A freaking leather letter jacket is $300. In 1975 Gold was about $180/oz. It spiked to $750/oz in mid/early '78. It fell to $250/oz before '82. It traded between $350-$400 until 9/11/01 and it's been going up ever since due to political uncertainty. Gold (and any other REAL commodity) CAN be a good investment, but not always. Just ask those people that bought it for $750/oz back in '78 and are still waiting to recoup their investment. Regardless of that, it in no way, shape or form tracks with the consumer price index and hasn't since we went off the gold standard. John Stricker

obviously, there are bad times to buy gold. and, yes, maybe "custom tailored" is a bit of a stretch - but back then - wasnt ALL suits custom? and, you can still get a decent suit. anyways - if you want to buy gold - wait for after the war, thats when the price will drop again. price goes up before & during wartime, goes down after wards.