My prediction: The market will react Thursday to what analyists presume $50 a barrel possibilty. The market will HAVE TO GO DOWN as the price of oil affects ALL SECTORS across the board. I see the market losing anywhere from 100-900 points early on Thursday. Mark my words. Thursday= D O W N ! ! ! ! ! !
Heres why: The western bank facilitated ExxonMobil deal w/ Khodokovsky failed. Regardless of tripling of thier profits thru military contracts because of war efforts... Exxon didnt get its hands on Yukos holdings. So to combat thier marketshare earnings outlay shortfall they will now manipulate (increase) oil barrel prices.
Todays reaction was no autonomus supply and demand reaction. It was a planned effort w/ someone w/ ExxonMobil interests who spoke w/ Putins administration to begin the freezing of oil production by Yukos. The Russians didnt have to stop production but they decided to make a buck along w/ whoever their in bed with. It would interesting to investigate who placed large buys before July 28th. Obvisiously a small group of investors have successfully planned & squeezed several billiions of dollars from the worlds markets (mainly Americas since we consume over 25% worlds energy)
Neither the SEC or Federal Trade Commission have jurisdiction of the international scheme that materialized today on our oil price increases. Its considered opportunity and capitalism at the highest of levels. We as Americans will be poorer from it. Expect to lose an extra $20-100 per month because of higher gas prices (depending on what you drive and how far).
The big three will see increases on the bottomline. Chevron Exxon and Shell execs will get to buy some more mansions and yachts... well what do you got?
OUT>
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08:21 PM
PFF
System Bot
Wudman Member
Posts: 1593 From: Sacramento, CA Registered: Jan 2001
Why do I have? A large jar of pre-Yukos inspired rape Vasoline that I will apply myself. Hmm, glad I retired my 2.5 duke powered Fiero for Saturn a few weeks ago. That extra best case 6 mpg will be appreciated..
What is incredibly telling about the current state of energy prices is that the administration has said so little about the nation trying to change how it consumes fuel. They have said nothing about conservation and clearly don't care since the run up in energy prices does make their friends richer. It is an easy way to pay back all those who invested in the run for the Presidency.
Now surely someone will say I am "blaming" Bush when I am only pointing out what seems to be a lot of doing nothing. Excuse me, he did "talk" to the Saudis about production, but since then nothing. Someone else would say that production is already at capacity, so more oil won't help. Then again, shrinking the supply, no matter by how few drips, causes the price to spike. Others will say it is the market that it is those pesky Chinese and their new found demand for oil, but then I wonder why don't we have shortages here?
It seems that there is now a new phenomenom working in the oil market. More and more it seems like the "Enron-like" manipulation of the market is not a fig newton of our imagination and is now probably way beyond the control of Bush. I doubt those (in the energy sector) that funded his last Presidency care what he has to say since they only speak to Cheney.
If anything, the timing won't help Bush if the Kerry gets wise and jumps on this tomorrow.
This is all old news. No one really expected XOM or anyone else to be able to buy into Yukos.
Considering that Yukos has all but been shut down by the Russian govt for a few weeks anyway, due to mismanagement and fraud, I don't see where the big concern is. South America is a far bigger player in the international oil market than Yukos is.
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12:32 AM
donk316 Member
Posts: 1952 From: Red Deer, Alberta, Canada Registered: Mar 2003
I hope it goes to 60 bucks a barrel. More work for me and I dont pay for fuel anyways....god bless the Oilffield
------------------ Calgary - August 1, 2004 Fiero Fiesta 1984 Indy Fiero 3.4/3100 Hybrid NA and... *ALL THROTTLE AND NO BOTTLE* http://www.gmpcm.com/ Killer ECM/ PCM tuning software and information
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12:42 AM
ryan.hess Member
Posts: 20784 From: Orlando, FL Registered: Dec 2002
I hope it goes to 60 bucks a barrel. More work for me and I dont pay for fuel anyways....god bless the Oilffield
Really narrow view. As if Canadian oil is some kind of limitless bank? FYI, if or when oil gets to $60+, which may be sooner than later, I doubt it will matter that you don't have to pay for it. Last time I checked, Canada was not an island and if the crap hits the fan, everyone gets sprayed.
On another note, it seems that some say our Saudi "friends" may be telling a big fat lie on the amount of their reserves. http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P87339.asp?GT1=4244 Now this will make life quite interesting. Where is my fuel cell!
Since the dawn of this godforsaken marketplace located in N.Y.... EVERY single TIME the 'report' on unemployment numbers go up - the damned market goes UP.
This is typical human sick psychic.
Maybe they believe that more people being unemployed and broke makes the value of the market go up.
The news of Russias largest oil co halting production AND U.S. job market permanantly disapearing with todays 'report' on unemployment #'s going up is obviously making some 3 piece suit wearing demons a lot of cash.
Those traders (traitors) can clear 50k-100k a day (some of them) while the hardworking slave-like people w/ no benefits picking vegetables in the sun that actually keep everybody fed and alive in this barren ball hell get to make .90-$5 an hr
BTW: It was a business group located in NY that put out the Yukos info. Then the 'report' on higher unemployment crops up today...so thats what makes America tick. What report is next? My guess the NYSE full of **** 'report'.
Ever since Grasso walked away with billions this market has had a hard time keeping a straight face.
OUT>
[This message has been edited by G-Nasty (edited 07-29-2004).]
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03:11 PM
Toddster Member
Posts: 20871 From: Roswell, Georgia Registered: May 2001
My prediction: The market will react Thursday to what analyists presume $50 a barrel possibilty. The market will HAVE TO GO DOWN as the price of oil affects ALL SECTORS across the board. I see the market losing anywhere from 100-900 points early on Thursday. Mark my words. Thursday= D O W N ! ! ! ! ! !
OUT>
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04:03 PM
PFF
System Bot
Wudman Member
Posts: 1593 From: Sacramento, CA Registered: Jan 2001
Good thing we went to war "for oil". Otherwise gas might be $20/gallon now!
</sarchasm>
Oh dear, it is getting thick in here. The "administration" had blundered through the oil issue in Iraq and has admitted so. The war has made a tenuous situation unstable enough that the market jitters if a terrorist website says they will padlock some valve on a remote oil well that before didn't matter. How much of our national supply is being divereted to support not only the war effort but the Iraqi civil need?
The war has not done anything to calm the fears of the terrorists and is a natural tool for the market to use to speculate the price up. I would venture to say without the war, there would be a better chance the market would be stable. Add to that the Russians are regressing to a state-owned oil industry since the old school thugs never went away, they just changed coats. Putin is out of control, looking to build a new dictatorship and oil looks to be is funding source. Just another reason for the traders to drive the price up. Our reserve level, what used to be the hedge on prices, seems to no longer matter, so we are at the mercy of the profiteers and Bush is just standing by watching. His buddies the Saudis were suppose to increase production, but that was several weeks ago and hasn't happened. So much for the OPEC's desire to keep prices in the $25-28 range. That was BS from the get go and since they said that, the prices have never hit that mark.
Take a look at the contracts doled out before, during and after the war, they for the most part went to Bush and Cheney cronies. But the blew it. Not only did they underestimate the Iraqi desire not to be future Bush puppets, but they over estimated how much Iraqi oil they could bring on line. I do recall Bush saying that Iraq oil revenues would pay for the war, instead it is you and me to the tune of over $140,000,000,000 so far and growing not counting causualties. Then again, the cronies are making bank hand over foot.
As far as those who "*******" about the price of gas.. Everyone will just have to pay or walk or be cold or eat more beans and rice. Personally, my office is one keystroke away from this forum. I might have to drive my vehicles twice a week and that is if I don't consolodate my trips. On the other hand, if this run up is going to run into winter, those of you who heat with gas or oil are going to get another very nasty surprise. If you can get gas and oil, you will pay up the arse for it. Pray for a warm winter. Then we have seen what happens to the economy when the real effect of high energy prices catches up with other aspects of the market. It is silly to think this is just about what it costs to fill your car, everyone posting here knows better. On the other hand, for many families, energy costs are one of the largest expenses in their budget. If you think that creating more poverty will not affect the overall quality of everyone's life, you are leaning so far right, I am surprised you aren't laying down.
Originally posted by Toddster: Good thing we went to war "for oil". Otherwise gas might be $20/gallon now! </sarchasm>
the administration's friends dont profit from cheap oil. we didnt go to war for "cheap" oil, we went to war for *control* of the oil. the only things restraining them are concerns about electability come november, and the american economy grinding to a halt as the last few american workers who actually make something wont be able to get to work at $5 a gallon.
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08:02 PM
donk316 Member
Posts: 1952 From: Red Deer, Alberta, Canada Registered: Mar 2003
Really narrow view. As if Canadian oil is some kind of limitless bank? FYI, if or when oil gets to $60+, which may be sooner than later, I doubt it will matter that you don't have to pay for it. Last time I checked, Canada was not an island and if the crap hits the fan, everyone gets sprayed.
On another note, it seems that some say our Saudi "friends" may be telling a big fat lie on the amount of their reserves. http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P87339.asp?GT1=4244 Now this will make life quite interesting. Where is my fuel cell!
Who said anything about "canadian oil"? Last time I checked <as far as the oilfield industry is concerned> we work world wide. From Iraq to Mexico and Ontario to BC
My company pays for my fuel < insurance and truck too> so no matter what it costs i wont be effected.
The higher the price of oil the more exploration and production oil companies do.
The more exploration and production the more "work" my company and a million others get.
Plus the province makes something like 10 million a day per 1 dollar over 22 dollars a barrel
So theres another plus.
The global supply of oil isnt even close to running out so that horse shizzle too.
Another report came out and we are supposively under 40% used of what we have found so far....not to mention the stuff we havent found yet.
So their is a happy side to your "sky is falling" way of looking at things and learn both sides of a story before you start pointing fingers.,
------------------ Calgary - August 1, 2004 Fiero Fiesta 1984 Indy Fiero 3.4/3100 Hybrid NA and... *ALL THROTTLE AND NO BOTTLE* http://www.gmpcm.com/ Killer ECM/ PCM tuning software and information
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09:38 PM
Jul 30th, 2004
Old Lar Member
Posts: 13797 From: Palm Bay, Florida Registered: Nov 1999
Really narrow view. As if Canadian oil is some kind of limitless bank? FYI, if or when oil gets to $60+, which may be sooner than later, I doubt it will matter that you don't have to pay for it. Last time I checked, Canada was not an island and if the crap hits the fan, everyone gets sprayed.
On another note, it seems that some say our Saudi "friends" may be telling a big fat lie on the amount of their reserves. http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P87339.asp?GT1=4244 Now this will make life quite interesting. Where is my fuel cell!
Actually Canada has one of the largest "potential" oil supplies in the world. The problem is that it is all full of sand. Extraction techniques are not yet up to full scale production but in 10 or 20 years they will be a MAJOR player in the oil industry.
And NO, that does not mean we need to start kissing their butts. We'll just invade them. That's what we do when we want something...right? I mean we invaded Italy in '42, Germany and France in '44 and Japan in '45. Look at how great those new states turned out.
oh, wait.
[This message has been edited by Toddster (edited 07-30-2004).]
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06:49 PM
Old Lar Member
Posts: 13797 From: Palm Bay, Florida Registered: Nov 1999
U.S. light crude hit a peak at $43.94 a barrel, marking a gain of 14 cents over Friday’s settlement and the highest level reached since oil futures were launched on the New York Mercantile Exchange in 1983.
Originally posted by Old Lar: U.S. light crude hit a peak at $43.94 a barrel, marking a gain of 14 cents over Friday’s settlement and the highest level reached since oil futures were launched on the New York Mercantile Exchange in 1983.
yeee-haw! just wait until another terrorist attack happens... it's so going through the roof. We'll all be driving scooters to work. Btw - useless fact - I built a 32cc gas powered scooter from a leaf blower and a well... scooter.., thing got 170mpg. Take THAT 40mpg hybrids!
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07:45 PM
Toddster Member
Posts: 20871 From: Roswell, Georgia Registered: May 2001
Don't you get tired of being wrong all the time? From the day you made your bold prediction to today, the market is off 154.04 points. You predicted that it would be down "100-900 points early on Thursday".
The situation is Russia is such that there may be some interruption in supplies but it's strictly going to short term, believe me. The wells are there, there's oil in them, and the money is waiting to be made. Do you REALLY think they're just going to sit there and not have SOMEBODY pump the wells? Dream on. Someone will take them over. OPEC has already said they're ready to up their production immediately to make up for the short term shortfall, if any actually exists.
Markets rise and markets fall, it's the nature of the beast. Get used to it or get out.
John Stricker
quote
Originally posted by G-Nasty:
DOWN almost 200 points. Due to crazy (inflated) high oil prices.
I just jumped the gun.
BUT I WAS......R I G H T!
I forgot it takes time for the fat cats to take a dump.
Tommorow could even be worst. OUT>
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11:49 PM
Aug 6th, 2004
G-Nasty Member
Posts: 2099 From: woodlands,TX,USA Registered: Jan 2001
Johnboy: A lot of brown and military folks a dying for them there profits
Equatorial new guinea, Iraq, Venezuela, Colombia...well you SHOULD get the picture.
What pisses me off is Chevron and Texaco and some other multinational getting rich off of federal land leases.
They are taking our oil. On our land... (today) that the govt will be using royalties to pay for an increase production to put it in strategic oil reserves starting in Oct.04
Put that money in the peoples pockets NOT ceos. The U.S. govt is worst than Saddam. Follow the money trails and deaths and profits
Osama was right all along. OUT>
[This message has been edited by G-Nasty (edited 08-06-2004).]
now you all know who rules the world. Not the government of ANY one country, nor the kings or queens or whatevers, but yes the OIL companys, each and every one of them in cahoots with each other, and the worst thing is there is nothing you, nor I, nor anybody can do about it. We have allowed this cr*p to happen and we are going to have to live with it. I believe it will get a whole lot worse and harder to control these so called moguls and that is a worry. They have every Govt in the world eating out of their hands, every Govt crawling on their hands and knees for their favors and they do not give diddley squat for one damned person,animal, leaf, tree or grain of sand in this beautiful world.
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12:58 AM
jstricker Member
Posts: 12956 From: Russell, KS USA Registered: Apr 2002
To each his/her own, Don. Actually, the last week I've been getting out of the oil market and neutralizing my position in it. I see a major price drop in the coming months and it has nothing to do with the elections.
Oil is a commodity and as such it's traded on the futures market. The futures market and the cash, spot market go hand in hand. There can't be an effect on one without it affecting the other. People argue which leads and which follows but really, it depends on a lot of factors. Sometimes futures lead, sometimes they follow the cash market.
Over the last few months, wheelbarrows full of money have come into the oil futures market. People that never traded in oil before are trading in it now, and they're buying. Does this sound familiar? It should, think dot com boom bust. That's where I believe the oil market is headed. Up to this point, it's been a self-fulfiling prophesy that it's going up and a lot of people think it's going to go up a lot more. I don't. They might be wrong and I might be wrong, but regardless, I've made some money in the market and I'm not greedy, so I'm cashing in my chips and leaving the table for the time being.
Only time will tell, of course, who's right. I do know there are a few basic rules that have served me well in trading for the last 25 years or so and have invariably bitten me in the butt if I ignored them. Rule 1 is don't get greedy. Rule 2 is never let a good profit turn into a loss. Rule 3 is when everybody and their dog says something it going higher, the market is effectively over (likewise for something going lower, it's called contrary opinion and fortunes have been made trading on nothing but that). Rule 4 is don't be so stubborn as to refuse to admit you were wrong and bail out.
Right now, for me, rules 1-3 apply so I'm out.
All that said, I did just invest in a 1/32 working interest of a well here, and I haven't been in that end of it for over 20 years when I lost my butt on 3 wells back in the 80's. Maybe this time will be better, the odds are slightly better than playing the lottery.
John Stricker
quote
Originally posted by maryjane:
I agree. That way they can buy more gasoline. Buy & hold!!!
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01:22 AM
PFF
System Bot
Sep 7th, 2004
Old Lar Member
Posts: 13797 From: Palm Bay, Florida Registered: Nov 1999
Oil prices dropped below the $43 per barrel mark before rising slightly to end the session, giving credence to investors’ belief that the summer’s run on oil prices was at an end. A barrel of light crude settled at $43.31, down 68 cents, on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
U.S. light crude settled at $50.12 a barrel, up 48 cents on the day. It is the first time the benchmark contract has closed above $50 in its 21 years of trade on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It hit an all-time peak of $50.47 earlier this week in after hours trading.
Light crude for December delivery traded as low as $48.65 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange shortly after the Energy Department released its weekly petroleum supply report, then reversed course, rising $1.26 to $50.88 per barrel.
Originally posted by G-Nasty: You DO KNOW that everything including commodities & CPI are going up. Everything we buy will follow the oil.
Yes, everything goes up. Like inflation and prices. Did YOU know that if indexed to the price of inflation, a barrel of oil during a fuel crisis in 1981 would have been $75? Since it is 23 years later, $50/barrel looks pretty good.
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09:42 PM
fierobear Member
Posts: 27083 From: Safe in the Carolinas Registered: Aug 2000
someone post the pic of the US soldier, with the saying "we're getting killed so you can have cheap gas to fill up your SUV"
for toddster
Assuming we are in Iraq only for the oil, what do you think would happen to the economy, unemployment and your wallet if we DIDN'T do anything about oil supply for the U.S.?
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09:43 PM
Nov 4th, 2004
Toddster Member
Posts: 20871 From: Roswell, Georgia Registered: May 2001
I know you guys won't confuse me with a conservative anytime soon, but I must say it is all those SUV driving soccer moms cruising in their Hummer H2's that drove up oil! Man, if they only drove Honda Civic hybrids, heck, if everyone drove them, there'd be plenty of cheap gas for me and my Hummer H2!
Ok, before I get a beat down for being a leftist liberal, let me state I AM NOT SERIOUS!
The reason oil prices are up is because of supply disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico region, Venezuela and Nigeria political unrest, the middle east, and coporate scandal problems in Russia all combined with skyrocketing demand in China (and India will soon see demand jumping too). More oil is needed on a global scale, and that has a much larger impact than a few SUV driving soccer moms on the worldwide market.
