awwwww... the poor americans have to pay more for gas... why dont you guys visit europe, australia, or canada... they all pay way more for gas then you guys do any i never hear one person complain.

get over it.

I dont know about anywhere else, but now that the elections done, gas here went down around 15-20 cents a gallon this week. From $2.05 to $1.85 give or take a few cents. Just what id guessed. Now just to see if Bush takes credit.

Light, sweet crude for January delivery was up 9 cents at $40.80 per barrel in afternoon trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Prices are nearly $15 per barrel cheaper than the settlement high of $55.17 recorded twice in late October

DJIA 10638.32 +95.10 +0.90%
• NASDAQ 2148.50 +20.43 +0.96%
• S&P 500 1198.68 +10.68 +0.90%
• Russell 638.03 +5.79 +0.92%

This seems to fit the seasonal pattern, lower prices in the winter and higher in the early summer. I will be waiting and watching for the usual seasonal up-turn in crude and unleaded prices before I go long. Anyone willing to bet that unleaded hits atleast $3.00 a gallon this summer in the states?

G-Nasty predictions needed an update.

DJIA 10854.54 +78.41 +0.73%
• NASDAQ 2177.19 +22.97 +1.07%
• S&P 500 1213.54 +8.62 +0.72%

Benchmark light, sweet crude for February delivery climbed 45 cents to $41.77 per barrel on the New York Mercantile

Don't forget the update on the "Great Depression of 2005^©"

------------------

Some people seem to be addicted to gloom and doom. Ain't it nice when they are proven wrong?

[This message has been edited by fierobear (edited 12-28-2004).]

quote Originally posted by Old Lar: G-Nasty predictions needed an update. DJIA 10854.54 +78.41 +0.73% • NASDAQ 2177.19 +22.97 +1.07% • S&P 500 1213.54 +8.62 +0.72% Benchmark light, sweet crude for February delivery climbed 45 cents to $41.77 per barrel on the New York Mercantile

Don't worry the price is going to rise again, and then it will drop, but it will drop less than this time. They will keep doing it as long as we live. Thats how they get us used to higher prices. There is a huge increase, everybody makes crazy profits, then they drop it to a higher price than before the price spike, and everyone is happy about the "low" prices. If you think its all random circumstance then you need to look at the last ten years of oil prices.

quote Originally posted by connecticutFIERO: Don't worry the price is going to rise again, and then it will drop, but it will drop less than this time. They will keep doing it as long as we live. Thats how they get us used to higher prices. There is a huge increase, everybody makes crazy profits, then they drop it to a higher price than before the price spike, and everyone is happy about the "low" prices. If you think its all random circumstance then you need to look at the last ten years of oil prices.

So true...You hit the nail square on the head...thats exactly what happenes...

Why limit it to oil? Take anything you want, same priniciple. In fact, when it DOESN'T happen, it's called DEFLATION and that is a very, very bad thing.

John Stricker

quote Originally posted by connecticutFIERO: Don't worry the price is going to rise again, and then it will drop, but it will drop less than this time. They will keep doing it as long as we live. Thats how they get us used to higher prices. There is a huge increase, everybody makes crazy profits, then they drop it to a higher price than before the price spike, and everyone is happy about the "low" prices. If you think its all random circumstance then you need to look at the last ten years of oil prices.

quote Originally posted by connecticutFIERO: Don't worry the price is going to rise again, and then it will drop, but it will drop less than this time. They will keep doing it as long as we live. Thats how they get us used to higher prices. There is a huge increase, everybody makes crazy profits, then they drop it to a higher price than before the price spike, and everyone is happy about the "low" prices. If you think its all random circumstance then you need to look at the last ten years of oil prices.

quote Originally posted by buds: So true...You hit the nail square on the head...thats exactly what happenes...

Yup. And it has nothing to do with whoever is in office. So much for the "Big Oil" conspiracy.
There may indeed be a coordinated Big Oil entity controlling prices, but it's called OPEC and doesn't answer to the U.S. Administration.

quote Originally posted by jstricker: Why limit it to oil? Take anything you want, same priniciple. In fact, when it DOESN'T happen, it's called DEFLATION and that is a very, very bad thing. John Stricker

Don't bother, John. connecticutFIERO doesn't get it. Everything goes up. If you look at the price of oil, indexed for inflation, gas is cheap. But it's not much fun for guys like him if they don't have anything to b***h about.

I heard on the radio that California is concerned about the gasoline prices dropping. See there is a sales tax on the price, as the price goes up, tax revenues go up. As prices drop, tax revenues go down. The thinking is to raise the gas tax to keep the revenue steam coming in. The masses were getting used to the high price. They need those revenues to repair the infrastructure. Of course the gas tax revenue stream they now collect goes to service the massive debt, rather than the infrastructure repair as the tax was originally imposed. I'm thinking all the states will be doing that.

quote Originally posted by Old Lar: I heard on the radio that California is concerned about the gasoline prices dropping. See there is a sales tax on the price, as the price goes up, tax revenues go up. As prices drop, tax revenues go down. The thinking is to raise the gas tax to keep the revenue steam coming in. The masses were getting used to the high price. They need those revenues to repair the infrastructure. Of course the gas tax revenue stream they now collect goes to service the massive debt, rather than the infrastructure repair as the tax was originally imposed. I'm thinking all the states will be doing that.

Tell me about it. The gas tax should be a user tax, and go ONLY to roads. No dice. They put the money in the general fund. It's bull.

The same thing happened after the dotcom bust. During the boom, tax revenues went through the roof, and so did spending. When the tax revenues dropped, they didn't want to cut their pet projects, and we had a big deficit, which we are still trying to erase.

quote Originally posted by Toddster: Actually Canada has one of the largest "potential" oil supplies in the world... in 10 or 20 years they will be a MAJOR player in the oil industry. And NO, that does not mean we need to start kissing their butts. We'll just invade them. That's what we do when we want something...right?

I'll be more concerned in the years to come with the States wanting/demanding our water more so than our oil.

quote Originally posted by Old Lar: I heard on the radio that California is concerned about the gasoline prices dropping. See there is a sales tax on the price, as the price goes up, tax revenues go up. As prices drop, tax revenues go down. The thinking is to raise the gas tax to keep the revenue steam coming in. The masses were getting used to the high price. They need those revenues to repair the infrastructure. Of course the gas tax revenue stream they now collect goes to service the massive debt, rather than the infrastructure repair as the tax was originally imposed. I'm thinking all the states will be doing that.

Here in Texas the taxes on gasoline are a fixed amount per gallon, so it wouldn't matter if gas was selling for 15c/gallon the same amount of taxes would be collected. Interesting note: with the freeze in CAFE requirements and the burgeoning sales of gas-sucking SUVs like the 8.5MPG Hummer2 the amount of fuel being consumed per capita is actually going up here in Texas. That means that per mile driven Texas revenues are skyrocketing, yet the DOT (our government road construction agency) is claiming so much poverty that they can't build anymore roads unless they're toll roads (where the tolls go to private agencies and not the government).

My question is, where's the money going?

JazzMan

quote Originally posted by fierobear: Don't bother, John. connecticutFIERO doesn't get it. Everything goes up. If you look at the price of oil, indexed for inflation, gas is cheap. But it's not much fun for guys like him if they don't have anything to b***h about.

Wow you really are an angry, spiteful, know it all aren't you?

quote Originally posted by connecticutFIERO: Wow you really are an angry, spiteful, know it all aren't you?

After reading some of the crap you post, yes. It honestly pisses me off. I don't know what bothers me more, that you believe what you post, or that you post it here.

quote Originally posted by fierobear: After reading some of the crap you post, yes. It honestly pisses me off. I don't know what bothers me more, that you believe what you post, or that you post it here.

Gee its to bad that I have repeatedly said I didn't believe the Iraq war was unleashed so we could steal Iraqi oil. It also is funny that I agreed with the white house decision not to open up the strategic oil reserve to ease oil prices. But hey you can think whatever you want, don't let the fact that I wrote in my post to look at the price of oil over the last "ten" years dispell your belief that I am attacking the current administration.

You know what makes ME angry? That you are under the pretense that your obnoxious opinions are good content for fiero.nl's OT but my opinions are "crap" and that I dare even post here. You can pretend I am some ultra liberal all you want, the fact is you are just a stubborn, stuck up, know it all that can't understand how someone else can disagree with you and still be a rational political moderate. You have a false stereotype image of me in your head that is your own creation, somehow I have come to represent all "liberal self hate" as you call it, when you really aren't even considering my actual words and opinions. Just your own fantasized "punching bag". Its rather pathetic actually.

conn, you are entitled to your opinions just like everyone else, but never in a million years would I have described you as a moderate. I'm not saying you're some left wing liberal wacko (although I have wondered at times), but your views seem to paint you much more as a liberal than a moderate.

But hey, what do I know, I'm just one of the uber-class convservatives, right?

quote Originally posted by Formula88: conn, you are entitled to your opinions just like everyone else, but never in a million years would I have described you as a moderate. I'm not saying you're some left wing liberal wacko (although I have wondered at times), but your views seem to paint you much more as a liberal than a moderate. But hey, what do I know, I'm just one of the uber-class convservatives, right?

I am a left leaning moderate. You may not believe it. But when you come from the right, everyone else looks like they are to the left. I am far to the left compared to you or Fierobear, but I am far to the right of people like carlc or gnasty. So where does that put me? I would say somewhere left of the middle. That doesn't make me a conspiracy theory nhut, and it doesn't make me a bible thumping hawk. It puts me into a much more moderate position, but I always end up fighting for left wing positions here because this place is constantly pushing out extreme right wing opinions.

quote Originally posted by connecticutFIERO: You know what makes ME angry? That you are under the pretense that your obnoxious opinions are good content for fiero.nl's OT but my opinions are "crap" and that I dare even post here. You can pretend I am some ultra liberal all you want, the fact is you are just a stubborn, stuck up, know it all that can't understand how someone else can disagree with you and still be a rational political moderate. You have a false stereotype image of me in your head that is your own creation, somehow I have come to represent all "liberal self hate" as you call it, when you really aren't even considering my actual words and opinions. Just your own fantasized "punching bag". Its rather pathetic actually.

In response to some of your posts, I, and others, have posted information, data and evidence that refutes your assertions. That's not arrogance, that is responding with facts to counterract your misguided notions. I don't consider myself or my opinions as better than anyone, I simply go on the facts and the reality of my own experiences. If, for example, you push a socialist agenda, and we show that socialism is proven to be a lesser system than the one we currently have in this country, then it is not arrogance, it is reality based upon the facts of history.

quote Originally posted by fierobear: In response to some of your posts, I, and others, have posted information, data and evidence that refutes your assertions. That's not arrogance, that is responding with facts to counterract your misguided notions. I don't consider myself or my opinions as better than anyone, I simply go on the facts and the reality of my own experiences. If, for example, you push a socialist agenda, and we show that socialism is proven to be a lesser system than the one we currently have in this country, then it is not arrogance, it is reality based upon the facts of history.

Your point is that you and everyone I have debated here on this forum is backed by facts and figures, not just opinions, but MY side of the argument is only opinion? You know, if thats how you view yourself then you need to buy a mirror. That is pure 100% bullsh!t. I try to be consistant with my sources when I debate. I have even gone as far as creating charts and posting them to illustrate my point. I don't rely on my own "opinion". But of course I do HAVE an opinion. I have opinions, you have opinions, and everyone else has opinions. If you can cherry pick facts and figures to rebut my cherry picked facts and figures that doesn't make your case one bit better. Fierobear you are the last person on this forum that I would pick as a fact based debater. Your arguments are almost exclusively support for "other" peoples arguments. You don't do the research and post facts and figures to back up your claims, you usually throw in a "yeah me too" and "you are a commie bastard" here and there. Show me some of your political fact based posts and I'll show you 5 times as many of my own. You don't like it, but you know I'm right. Maybe you aren't as interested in doing the reading and searching as I am, but you sure do throw your opinion in as much.

edit: I appreciate your honesty and understanding of my post in response to formula, but that doesn't make up for your repeated pigeonholing of me and presumptions of my politics. I try to be too harsh, but I am getting tired of it.

[This message has been edited by connecticutFIERO (edited 12-29-2004).]

Update!!!

G-Nasty quote from 7/28/04...

My prediction: The market will react Thursday to what analyists presume $50 a barrel possibilty. The market will HAVE TO GO DOWN as the price of oil affects ALL SECTORS across the board.
I see the market losing anywhere from 100-900 points early on Thursday.
Mark my words.
Thursday= D O W N ! ! ! ! ! !

As of 2/25/05:

A barrel of light crude closed at $51.49, up 10 cents on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

• DJIA 10841.60 +92.81
• NASDAQ 2065.40 +13.70
• S&P 500 1211.37 +11.17
• Russell 637.53 +

if you have never worked in the oil fields...you have no idea whats going on..sure the price is up so that means profits are up too..and like donk said profits=more returns for more exploration...as for our oil being full of sands...yup your right..hence the project my company is involved with...its a small but very lucrative project that is going to use steam to extract the oil from the tar sands...how do i know...cause we have been coring (taking formation samples) out of this area for the last 3 years...they have spent close to 500 million on this project which is going to continue over the next 50 years...
so are we (canadians) worried about oil..fuk no...this new way of extracting oil from the sands is gonna make us a super power unless the good ole USA sees as a terrorist threat (we know u hate the french) and decides its time to own us too...so heres to the future and drive away to your hearts content..cuz it aINT GONNA GET ANY CHEAPER FOLKS...SO SUCK IT UP...
tim...

Hmmm, market still up. No crash a year later.

Oil prices were trading near $65 a barrel Thursday after hitting a new intra-day high of $65.30 over gasoline supply fears.

• DJIA 10653.82 +59.41 +0.56%
• NASDAQ 2170.34 +12.53 +0.58%
• S&P 500 1236.18 +7.05 +0.57%
• Russ 2000 663.55 +3.39 +0.51%
• DJTA 3766.75 +23.29 +0.62%
• DJUA 397.64 +4.12 +1.05%
• 10-year 97.97 +0.09 +0.10%

G-Nasty what happened to your prediction?

Old Liar:
The market reacted bad yesterday when oil went up.
It ALWAYS reacts negatively when energy prices go up (unless your in that sector).
The market also likes to go up when the employment #'s are DOWN.
The market has been slow & FLAT for approx 2 yrs now. 10.5k average is not a good size for our economy. We should be in the 12-13k by now.

High record breaking energy prices are NOT good for the economy or Wallstreet.
It will make Americans drive less and pad the super -rich bank accounts here and abroad but in general this will hurt the majority of Americans.

You must own some energy stocks-maybe your not as foolish as I thought.
Its time for everyone making less than 50K to buy a bicycle or mule.
Hell even start walking to work
This really really sucks.
You dont know how many millions of people are hurting because of these prices.
I predicted a doom and gloom picture and thats exactly what this world has become.

Politics & profit-taking (more than anything else) have pushed these prices.

thismanyfieros: That process to remove oil; from tar is a pipe dream. It is slow, expensive & timely process. Canada will never be a superpower---our industry & govt will make sure of that.
Your part of the 'new' axis of evil !!!
Evildoers!!! I said evildooEEERRRZZZZss
Can I have an Amen!
Halallulayeah!

OUT>

[This message has been edited by G-Nasty (edited 08-11-2005).]

The market reacted BAD at the oil price yesterday? Down 21.26 points, or 2/10 of 1%?
That after going up over 78 points the previous day? Seems there was more profit taking than bad reaction to me.

Aug 11, 2003, DJIA closed at 9217.35
Aug 11, 2005, DJIA closed at 10685.89

Gain of 1,468.54 points or 15.9%

Average gain over the last two years of 7.95% annually.

What other investments do you have that have gained you 8%? 8% return compounded annually lets you double your money in 9 years, triple it in 14 and quadruple it in 18 and that ain't chicken feed. And it's certainly not "slow & FLAT".

Be careful who you call a liar when you're so free to throw bogus facts around. Oh, and as I've advised before, don't quit your day job because you suck as an economist or investment counselor.

John Stricker

quote Originally posted by G-Nasty: Old Liar: The market reacted bad yesterday when oil went up. It ALWAYS reacts negatively when energy prices go up (unless your in that sector). The market also likes to go up when the employment #'s are DOWN. The market has been slow & FLAT for approx 2 yrs now. 10.5k average is not a good size for our economy. We should be in the 12-13k by now. OUT> STILL WAY OUT THERE

prediction- over $100us/bbl within 3 years

<--- Operator at a gas plant in the oil field.

Inflation, demand, peak oil.

If you want to read some scary stuff, do a search on peak oil, its a reality and we are there already. The demand for oil has finally hit the worlds maximum production. We (the world) are currently consuming 83,000,000bbl's per day.

PS. natural gas has gone up 20% in the last few months. A hot summer in the states is depleting the gas reserves faster than they are being replaced. I'm surprised there have been no brown outs or rolling blackouts in the states so far (that I've heard of)

Should be an interesting year.

quote Originally posted by G-Nasty: My prediction: The market will react Thursday to what analyists presume $50 a barrel possibilty. The market will HAVE TO GO DOWN as the price of oil affects ALL SECTORS across the board. I see the market losing anywhere from 100-900 points early on Thursday. Mark my words. Thursday= D O W N ! ! ! ! ! !

Well lets see how the stock market goes today. Oil is at $66 a barrel, and you said maybe $50 a barrel back on July 28.

This lack of supply stuff is bull, we have more oil then we know what to do with, proof, why are tankers sitting off the coast of NY/NJ for 4-5 days waiting to unload? because they have no place to put the oil. This is happening in alot of places not just NY/NJ area.

Has anyone heard even a tiny hint that we should try to conserve gas usage, in order to slacken dependency?
NO, and you won't. That would defeat the reason for the high prices, "Profit"

quote Originally posted by Wolfhound: Has anyone heard even a tiny hint that we should try to conserve gas usage, in order to slacken dependency? NO, and you won't. That would defeat the reason for the high prices, "Profit"

Mean other than the new energy bill?
Tax incentives to buy hybrid vehicles, incentives to build Nuke power plants, ect.. Wasn't perfect and neither side was happy which probably means it was a decent plan.

If you own an oil company the "Energy bill" was wonderful.
Like winning the lottery.

quote Originally posted by Wolfhound: If you own an oil company the "Energy bill" was wonderful. Like winning the lottery.

How so?

If anything I'm hoping they found a way to build more refineries which should lower oil/gas prices in about 5 yrs if they can get them online.

Not flaming, but the fact that theres no screaming by Dean or Pelosi over the bill usually means that everyone got a little of something they wanted. Which for us worker bees means it probably aint perfect, but we're not getting royally screwed either.

Light sweet crude for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.42 to settle at $64.21 a barrel. In London, Brent crude gained $1.28 to $62.41 per barrel on the ICE Futures exchange

• DJIA 10959.31 +77.16 +0.71%
• NASDAQ 2305.62 +28.75 +1.26%
• S&P 500 1285.45 +11.97 +0.94%
• Russ 2000 699.39 +7.62 +1.10%
• DJTA 4214.28 -19.66 -0.46%
• DJUA 415.15 +4.24 +1.03%
• 10-year 101.00 -0.13 -0.12%

quote Originally posted by Wolfhound: Has anyone heard even a tiny hint that we should try to conserve gas usage, in order to slacken dependency? NO, and you won't. That would defeat the reason for the high prices, "Profit"

Do you actually need a government agency tell you you'll save money if you use less gas?

How about the tax dollars for that conservation ad campaign? If the government starts running TV, print, and radio ads telling people to conserve fuel, who do you think picks up that tab?

This thread is in The Archives.

quote Originally posted by G-Nasty: (posted 11-18-2004 10:23 AM) as Great Depression of 2005 Many believe there will be a short bull run in the market until January. Some profit taking late this year will ultimately slow this run down a bit. But get ready for the 'shocker'. When Congress gets back in session January, a sudden jolt will crack the foundation of our entire financial system. January to early February a serious decline in our market will bring to light many things gone wrong in the U.S. and global economy.International investors, bankers & holding houses will be taking steps to protect thier investments from devaluation after they realize this Republican led U.S. govt & its high level decision makers have no value added agenda other than spend. And spend they will. A session dedicated to permanent tax cuts for those making over 200k a yr and taking steps to remove Social Security for those born after 1966 will have no value added benefits. Appropriating another trillion or two for the 'War on Terror' & its govt agencies (during this flat economy) will not add any real value (other than make some Fortune 500's happy w/ lucrative govt contracts). However, thier spending spree may prevent some high level workers from layoffs. The Republican sponsored corporate lunch tax break wont help anything but some rich people fatter by allowing them to write off 80% of thier lunches now. A major force pushing this country to a controlled downward spiral is U.S. trade deficit with China The impact of globalizing and free trade has reared its ugly head. The majority of people in the U.S have seen thier lifestyles & standards of living manipulated and gone down because of it. China is winning this war with trillions going thier way with jobs/resources staying there. Thier currency and Bush's removal of Clintons dollar policy law have caused further damage to common Americans. But the continuing war invasion effort concentrated in the Middle East and higher interest/prime rates will provide the thrust for the big players to bring this economy to a halt. Depressions (under a microscope) are the result of very important people's actions. Actions at such a high level bring ripple and historic effects. The quagmire that will continue in the Middle East will amplify this. The rise of Saddam Hussein and Osama Bin Laden on the worlds center stage was to be a covert CIA thesis, anti-thesis, and synthesis for displacing power into U.S. control. It worked (to a certain point) but even with those new Iraqi elections it fall short of any REAL beneficial effects for Americans. There are also many other reasons for a permanent decline in our economy starting in early 2005. Unlike years past-our economy has no light at the end of the tunnel-no new technologies, inventions or industry. Again it will be a permanent decline. The majority of peoples lives here in America will be ruined. Our childrens lifes born unto serious debt thru bad policy. Leaders of the G13 have made the decision that slow controlled growth is the way to go. Places like China, India and America growth and efficiency will be the burden born by the common citizen. We must nationalize America and de-privatize the Cenral Bank in the U.S. We must stop the efforts to liberate Iraq and others. We must take back our govt that was created by the people FOR THE PEOPLE. OUT>

NYSE
11/18/04......6947.19
01/03/06......8031.66
UP 15.6%

DJIA
11/18/04.....10456.91
01/03/06.....10959.31
UP 4.8%

S&P 500
11/18/04.....1170.34
01/03/06.....1268.80
UP 8.4%

NASDAQ
11/18/04.....2070.63
01/03/06.....2305.62
UP 11.3%

Unemployment Rate
11/2004.....5.4%
12/2005.....4.9%
DOWN .5% actual, 9.2% relative to one year ago

So much for your market analysis, G-Nasty.

John Stricker

[This message has been edited by jstricker (edited 01-07-2006).]