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| Hudini...from your unique perspective, thoughts on the new Chinese corona virus (Page 8/146) |
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MidEngineManiac
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FEB 02, 03:24 PM
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MadMark
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FEB 02, 10:46 PM
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I saw an article on BBC today where they listed the number of cases confirmed and the deaths. But, they had another figure I think is important. That would be the total number who had it and are now out of the hospital. Only 450 or so made it out of the hospital so far. That is important because even if the patients dont die right away, they are still very sick and remain in the hospital.
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maryjane
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FEB 02, 11:01 PM
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R naught...
Seasonal flu has a low R number (R1.3) but as Randy posted, infects millions each year...
Let's look at the R numbers...
There are too many ways for it to be transmitted for any one preventative to be highly effective.
Present in any liquid or aerosol from the body, as well as in the feces. It can remain viable on surfaces for several hours. They do not know for sure yet how long it stays virulent suspended in air.
They're trying to establish a good R0 number. (R zero or R-naught) That's a number given a pathogen or infection that shows what the approximate rate of infection is. Non-infectious is R naught. A slightly infectious disease has a desirable R0 # below 1. Polio, smallpox and rubella have R0 values in the 5 to 7 range; such values mean that, on average, one sick person would be likely to infect five to seven people who were not resistant to the virus, Common measles is among the highest with an R# of r12 to R18, because measles virus can stay suspended in the air for as much as 2 hours after being expelled from a contagious person's sneeze or cough.
What is the R number? It is indicative of how many people are getting infected from a single infected person. A person with measles can generally infect 12-18 other people.
WHO currently places Coronavirus at R1.4 to R2.5. The Chinese estimate it at R3.5. It can change, depending on a lot of factors, and since this is a relatively new strain, and the fact that the Chinese estimate that only about 5% of their infected population has been identified, it probably will.
SARS r0 # is 3 to 4 range.
Whooping cough 5.5, according to a study published in 2010 in the journal PLoS Medicine, and SARS has an R naught value in the 3 to 4 range.
Rubella (German measles), Polio, smallpox all fit in the 5-7 range.
Seasonal influenza is rated pretty low at about 1.3, but infects millions of people because of low resistance to it, as a seemingly never ending variety of strains emerge each year.
Mumps has a 10 rating.
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randye
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FEB 03, 12:17 AM
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| quote | Originally posted by maryjane:
R naught...
Seasonal flu has a low R number (R1.3) but as Randy posted, infects millions each year...
Let's look at the R numbers...
There are too many ways for it to be transmitted for any one preventative to be highly effective.
Present in any liquid or aerosol from the body, as well as in the feces. It can remain viable on surfaces for several hours. They do not know for sure yet how long it stays virulent suspended in air.
They're trying to establish a good R0 number. (R zero or R-naught) That's a number given a pathogen or infection that shows what the approximate rate of infection is. Non-infectious is R naught. A slightly infectious disease has a desirable R0 # below 1. Polio, smallpox and rubella have R0 values in the 5 to 7 range; such values mean that, on average, one sick person would be likely to infect five to seven people who were not resistant to the virus, Common measles is among the highest with an R# of r12 to R18, because measles virus can stay suspended in the air for as much as 2 hours after being expelled from a contagious person's sneeze or cough.
What is the R number? It is indicative of how many people are getting infected from a single infected person. A person with measles can generally infect 12-18 other people.
WHO currently places Coronavirus at R1.4 to R2.5. The Chinese estimate it at R3.5. It can change, depending on a lot of factors, and since this is a relatively new strain, and the fact that the Chinese estimate that only about 5% of their infected population has been identified, it probably will.
SARS r0 # is 3 to 4 range.
Whooping cough 5.5, according to a study published in 2010 in the journal PLoS Medicine, and SARS has an R naught value in the 3 to 4 range.
Rubella (German measles), Polio, smallpox all fit in the 5-7 range.
Seasonal influenza is rated pretty low at about 1.3, but infects millions of people because of low resistance to it, as a seemingly never ending variety of strains emerge each year.
Mumps has a 10 rating. |
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Some reports from the CDC and WHO have stated that this corona virus strain, ("WuFlu"), looks very similar to the 2003 SARS CoV with respect to patient pathology and communicability. The rate of patients developing resistant pneumonia even looks strikingly similar.
I expect that the R0 number for WuFlu will be similar to SARS or MERS
By the way, SARS had a fatality rate of approx. 9.6% worldwide. That includes countries that have FAR better medical care than China and consequently had a mortality rate approx. 50% or more lower than China and most of Asia.
Chinese medical care still incorporates an amount of traditional folk medicine which I firmly believe accounts for their inability to efficiently cope with epidemics like this.[This message has been edited by randye (edited 02-03-2020).]
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maryjane
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FEB 03, 12:18 AM
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randye
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FEB 03, 12:45 AM
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Some people can be handed Occam's Razor and they will promptly dull it into a butter knife and use it to spread bullshit on conspiracy toast..[This message has been edited by randye (edited 02-03-2020).]
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E.Furgal
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FEB 03, 01:46 AM
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Things are always tin foil b/s.
un till..............................
I think that even though, many push the tin foil over the top b/s.
It is wise to read it, and put in the back of your head and wait and see what amount of what they claimed was not all that far off from reality.
not say'n believe it. just, it isn't wise to dismiss it. going on how many things , that some said was tin foil yahoo's ended up to be true or partly true. .
To many have an agenda. And the CDC is no different.
I'd not trust anything they say with my life.[This message has been edited by E.Furgal (edited 02-03-2020).]
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Hudini
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FEB 03, 02:52 AM
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I’m still here and kicking. My flight home was cancelled. I am planning on staying and self quarantining here instead of potentially bringing it home. I have internet and food and Coke Zero. I will survive just fine. My taxes can wait.
My flight to Singapore was cancelled. No more Chinese allowed in Singapore. I just arrived to Shanghai from Osaka. Had a bit of a scare with a cabin crew and fever. She was checked and is ok. Pulled my mask a bit tighter.
Fun times
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MidEngineManiac
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FEB 03, 07:24 AM
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| quote | Originally posted by E.Furgal:
Things are always tin foil b/s.
un till..............................
I think that even though, many push the tin foil over the top b/s.
It is wise to read it, and put in the back of your head and wait and see what amount of what they claimed was not all that far off from reality.
not say'n believe it. just, it isn't wise to dismiss it. going on how many things , that some said was tin foil yahoo's ended up to be true or partly true. .
To many have an agenda. And the CDC is no different.
I'd not trust anything they say with my life.
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Exactly. ALL of the major powers have and are developing bioweapons. ALL of them have a risk of accidental release.
And this outbreak is right in the hometown of a lab.
Those who think it isn't at least a possibility are deluding themselves.
Not like China is going to issue a press release starting with "Hey, folks. A funny thing happened at the lab this morning "
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MadMark
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FEB 03, 08:04 AM
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As of about an hour ago BBC reported about 17,000 cases total & 360 deaths. Still not an exponential increase, but still rising.
I do have one question that someone might be able to answer. Since this is closely related to common flue & cold virus's, do patients get secondary bacteria infections? That happens a lot with colds and flue and can be worse than the original infection.
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