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| Hudini...from your unique perspective, thoughts on the new Chinese corona virus (Page 77/146) |
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blackrams
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MAR 16, 06:59 AM
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I lead a sheltered life, don't get out much. I'm not a hermit but, I have never liked crowds.
Having said that, I don't know a single person that has ever had polio. I know folks that have had the flu, colds and other viruses who were apparently happy to share and have been infected by them previously. I have been exposed to several different contagions by women in my younger days but, apparently, my natural immune system handled those situations.
Not to suggest that this virus isn't a bad thing at all but, the planet seems to be overrun with Lemmings.
Panic buying of consumables, folks altering their lives, it's amazing to me. That is not meant to discourage good common sense but, I'm amazed at the reaction by the general public.
Would I get on a cruise ship now? Nope but, I wasn't interested in cruises before and I surely don't wish to get stuck on some ship waiting off shore to dis-embark. Might be different if this was 40 years ago and I was on a cruise with my new bride.  Now, no way do I want to be confined in some small cabin with out an escape route. 
Edited: I am curious though, in reference to this virus, what's going on in China, Russia, North Korea and other non-communicative states now?
Rams[This message has been edited by blackrams (edited 03-16-2020).]
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Fats
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MAR 16, 08:35 AM
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Not; "Do you know anyone who has died from the Flu." This is supposed to be worse than the Flu, how many people do you know with the Flu.
I've got three people right now in the few miles around the house that have Flu. Most everyone I know has been pretty sick this last year.
As someone said on the radio the other day; " If there aren't piles of dead bodies all over the country by the end of the year, heads need to roll from this fear-mongering."
Nobody wants anyone to die, but we are being told that MILLIONS will be dead by the end of the year from it in the US (best case, if we do everything right). How many would have to die each day in order to make that number? People are being forced into their homes, off work and the economy is being crashed into a tree. This is all a high cost. Is the price worth it?
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olejoedad
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MAR 16, 09:03 AM
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Never let a crisis go to waste.
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rinselberg
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MAR 16, 09:28 AM
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Pardon the apparent levity, if you can.
"Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths"
| quote | | Projections based on CDC scenarios show a potentially vast toll. But those numbers don’t account for interventions now underway |
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Sheri Fink for the New York Times; March 13, 2020 (updated March 15)
| quote | The assumptions fueling those scenarios are mitigated by the fact that cities, states, businesses and individuals are beginning to take steps to slow transmission, even if some are acting less aggressively than others. The CDC-led effort is developing more sophisticated models showing how interventions might decrease the worst-case numbers, though their projections have not been made public.
“When people change their behavior," said Lauren Gardner, an associate professor at the Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering who models epidemics, “those model parameters are no longer applicable,” so short-term forecasts are likely to be more accurate. “There is a lot of room for improvement if we act appropriately.”
Those actions include testing for the virus, tracing contacts, and reducing human interactions by stopping mass gatherings, working from home and curbing travel. In just the last two days, multiple schools and colleges closed, sports events were halted or delayed, Broadway theaters went dark, companies barred employees from going to the office and more people said they were following hygiene recommendations. |
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"Would you like to know more?"
https://www.nytimes.com/202...deaths-estimate.html[This message has been edited by rinselberg (edited 03-16-2020).]
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MadMark
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MAR 16, 09:55 AM
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On the Polio epidemic. My first wife had polio when she was just a toddler. She had just learned to walk and it got her. She had to spend a long time in isolation and in an iron lung. She had to learn how to walk all over again, with heavy steel braces. It badly affected her in that her left leg was pretty well destroyed. She had no muscles in her left leg. And there were a whole lot of little kids like her and adults too that got that virus until the Salk vaccine. That vaccine was a game changer.
I am sure that almost everyone of you that are over 50 have a friend that had polio. A whole lot of them recovered to the point where you wouldn't even know that they had it. Some who had bad cases ended up like my ex, with visible trauma from it. As she got older she seemed to be getting weaker. And I finally found a group called Post Polio Support. I finally talked her into going and I went with her to the meetings. The polio affected the synapses, the nerve connections to the muscles. Most people have a huge number of synapses to each muscle or muscle group. But, with the polio survivors they had only a few synapses for each muscle. What they ended up discovering is that as these polio survivors got older the normal aging process of synapses dying caused a lot more problems for them than for regular people. If you lost one synapse it wasn't a big deal. Others took over. But, for them to lose one synapse had huge implications.
We did find out a lot about the late life effects of polio from those classes. We also found out about new technology too. She had aluminum braces by then, but they still weighed about 5 pounds or so. Maybe that doesn't seem like a lot, but for someone who was already weak from the polio it was very heavy. Also, the braces she had used from her childhood were directly connected to her shoes. The shoes had to be specially designed heavy duty shoes with metal plates in them to hold up to the use of the braces. We found that there were new braces made from plastic and fiberglass, later Kevlar and Carbon Graphite. They were made by taking a female mold of her leg and then making a male mold from that. Then the brace would be formed around the male mold. It went under her foot and went into the shoe instead of being attached to the shoe. That meant she could wear regular shoes for the fist time in her life. You just can't imagine the joy on her face as she was able to shop for her first set on sneakers.
What I am trying to get at here is that Polio, while it is no longer a threat to us, had a huge impact on society in the late 40's and early 50's when it was rampant. Even though you don't know it, many of those survivors live with you and are your friends and neighbors. We in the US lost a lot more people than anything the Covid-19 is expected to do.
We will get through this. The government is taking extreme measures to prevent or to slow down the spread of the virus. All in the attempt to keep from having a huge peak in serious cases that would overwhelm the hospitals. If we can get through the next few weeks I think we will be alright. Our economy though is taking a huge hit and in my estimation the media and some of the politicians are trying to scare us and destroy our economy and our sense of well being. Take precautions, but don't over think this too much.
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maryjane
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MAR 16, 10:00 AM
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| quote | Originally posted by Patrick:
When you were a kid, did you always live in a rural environment? I'm just wondering if I met as many polio victims as I did simply because I lived in a more densely populated area? 
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I grew up and attended school in the small town Highlands Tx, (East gateway to the tallest monument in the world) population then of about 2000, within 25 miles of the City Limits of Houston Texas, then, 6th largest city in the US. (Yes, we had running water, city sewer, gas, telephones and paved roads)
Our dubious claim to fame according to wikipedia?
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In 1965 W. O. Hutson built the Double Trouble Youth Rodeo Arena. |
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(I spent many a 'interesting' night there as it was only about 2 miles from our house, learning a LOT about riding bulls, bareback horses, about girls, fighting, and life in general..it wasn't always as 'youth oriented' as the Wiki entry indicates. I really loved that place, but my mother absolutely hated me going there... If she only knew all of what really went on there.. it could be a rough place. God love buckle bunnies!!)
| quote | ]Notable inhabitants
Highlands is the hometown of:
The lead characters in the TV series Beavis and Butt-head live in the fictional community of Highland, Texas. |
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Note that their 'hometown' is spelled without an 's' on the end..[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 03-16-2020).]
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maryjane
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MAR 16, 10:18 AM
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Fats
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MAR 16, 10:21 AM
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| quote | Originally posted by rinselberg:
"Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths"
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I was listening to the radio, and they said that the Best Case, not the worst case scenario was at least a million people dead in the US by the end of the year "if we did everything right." I know what I heard.
Also.
| quote | | As the coronavirus spreads, one study predicts that even the best-case scenario is 15 million dead and a $2.4 trillion hit to global GDP |
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It’s Too Late to Stop ‘over 1 Million’ U.S. Coronavirus Deaths
| quote | Andrew Slavitt, Barack Obama’s former acting administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), is quoting experts who say more than one million Americans are already doomed because the “virus was not contained.”
“Currently experts expect over 1 million deaths in the U.S. since the virus was not contained & we cannot even test for it,” Slavitt tweeted Thursday. “The original sin is Trump’s months long denial and his dismantling of public health and response infrastructure.”
Let’s be very clear about what Slavitt is saying…
AT THE VERY LEAST, ONE MILLION AMERICANS WILL DIE NO MATTER WHAT WE DO NEXT
In no uncertain terms, using these experts, Slavitt is saying that it is already too late to save a million Americans, and that more than one million Americans will be dead in the next 12 to 18 months.
He is saying that no matter what we do to contain and mitigate, no matter what we do going forward, it is fait accompli that more than one million Americans will die and that this is all President Trump’s fault. |
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MadMark
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MAR 16, 10:35 AM
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Wow, that is truly amazing that someone would fear monger like that. Just look at the statistics we already have from China. Their population is over a billion. China only has 80,880 known cases and 3213 deaths. And they have more than leveled off. The number of new cases is way down there and probably going to stay low.
Yet, you have some idiot predicting over a million dead in the US, as a best case?
You better get out and buy, buy, buy. Stock up on everything then. Get your guns ready and your ammunition loaded.
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maryjane
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MAR 16, 10:37 AM
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