Hudini...from your unique perspective, thoughts on the new Chinese corona virus (Page 38/146)
MadMark FEB 23, 01:54 PM

quote
Originally posted by maryjane:


I tend to take a longer/wider view of things, and would be more concerned about Italy. Iran is already pretty much closed off, and tho the potential of an increased # of infections within that nation is high, the potential for further spreading it across the globe in true cataclysmic pandemic fashion is higher in any European or North American country that has open borders. Altho it is not going to be possible (as we've seen) to completely keep it within any one nation or region, it will be much much worse when it gets a real foothold in an area in which people are free to travel to and from other regions in great numbers. Italy, on the southern edge of Europe and the Northern edge of the African continent fits that scenario to a Tee, as would any of the North American states and regions.



I think all of these new hotspots are problematic. Why? Because it highlights how fast it can spread.

You also didn't comment on South Korea. The rate of new infection is very disturbing. And South Korea is a modern economy with lots of world travelers. I think for me personally, I will stay away from the Chicago main office of the South Korean company I deal with. I have medical reasons to stay as far away as possible. I am over 70 and have a few health issues and my immune system is compromised because of those health issues. I really dont think it will be a huge problem this year for us in the US, but unless someone comes up with a vaccine next year could be as bad as 1918.
blackrams FEB 23, 07:00 PM
I suggest we quarantine San Francisco (just for general purposes).
Only, do it after Speaker Pelosi is within it's boundaries.

Rams
williegoat FEB 23, 07:10 PM

quote
Originally posted by blackrams:

I suggest we quarantine San Francisco (just for general purposes).
Only, do it after Speaker Pelosi is within it's boundaries.

Rams


I think you have a sound plan. As I mentioned in another thread, it is becoming increasingly evident that far too many Americans have already died from exposure to Democrats.
maryjane FEB 23, 08:13 PM
I didn't comment on S. Korea because I speak with people in S. Korea almost every night. They are not very concerned about it. S. Korea is a peninsula, bounded on land only by the hermit kingdom of N. Korea. It should be pretty easy to quarantine the whole country...much much easier than Italy or Iran. Italy has open borders with Slovena, Frawnce, Switzerland and Austria and all of those 5 countries are vacation destinations for many more millions than S. Korea is.


On a side note, I spent the better part of today helping a neighbor doctor his calf herd. He's had a momma cow and 2 calves mysteriously die in the last 2 weeks.
I took this picture of one that had died very early this morning before daylight. Bled to death out it's butthole, vulva, and eyes. It had given birth less than 2 months ago, calf was doing well.


Among the medicines and vaccines we administered was:


Farmlife isn't always easy or pleasant

[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 02-23-2020).]

MidEngineManiac FEB 23, 08:55 PM
MadMark FEB 24, 10:41 AM
Interesting developments today on this front.

Smaller number of new cases in China than in quite a while on the 23rd. The figures didn't seem to change at the normal time last night either (7:00 pm Eastern Standard Time). And as of right now the John Hopkins website with the interactive graphicals on this virus is having problems, so it makes it hard to keep track.

But, South Korea jumped about another 200 cases in one day, again.

Iran, with from 50 total cases to 50 deaths in one day, with the deaths going back to the beginning of February.

And Italy had a pretty large jump too.

If these cases keep up this trend it will mean the virus has jumped the confines of China. Up until a couple of days ago it was mostly confined in China. And China had very strict quarantines going on with millions under quarantine of some type. There were a few isolated incidents, like the cruise ship in Japan, but they were tightly confined also.

So many questions

Will the world be able to hold off this virus until spring?

Will the arrival of spring bring relief like it does for the cousins of this corona virus?

Will the medical profession be able to come up with a viable vaccine soon? Or at least by next fall or early winter.

Will Italy, Iran and South Korea be able to put up an effective barrier to the spread of this virus?

When will this have a large effect on the world's economy.
williegoat FEB 24, 10:48 AM

quote
Originally posted by MadMark:

Iran, with from 50 total cases to 50 deaths in one day, with the deaths going back to the beginning of February.



Serious question: Is it possible that a place like Iran has just decided to shoot them and be done with it?


quote

When will this have a large effect on the world's economy.



The DJI has already dropped over 800 points this morning and they are blaming it on the corona virus.

[This message has been edited by williegoat (edited 02-24-2020).]

maryjane FEB 24, 11:00 AM
It's already having an effect on the global economy..just not very much on the consumer end yet.
It works both ways tho. It's helping to keep global gasoline prices down, but also is causing layoffs all over the upstream side of O&G.
Causing big swings in the weekly S&P 500. (3M tho, is NOT a 'buy'..one of the worst performing stocks on the S&P)
Manufacturing around the world is running a shortage of certain raw materials and parts for final assembly.
Big layoffs have not hit N. America yet, but they may if the virus remains active in China for much longer.
MadMark FEB 24, 11:45 AM

quote
Originally posted by maryjane:

It's already having an effect on the global economy..just not very much on the consumer end yet.
It works both ways tho. It's helping to keep global gasoline prices down, but also is causing layoffs all over the upstream side of O&G.
Causing big swings in the weekly S&P 500. (3M tho, is NOT a 'buy'..one of the worst performing stocks on the S&P)
Manufacturing around the world is running a shortage of certain raw materials and parts for final assembly.
Big layoffs have not hit N. America yet, but they may if the virus remains active in China for much longer.



Just one side note on 3M. The little foam company I worked for that made the nose pad foam for the N-95 masks was for 3M. I talked to someone there and there is now another plant making some of the foam for these masks. The one I worked at is working 24/7 now and that should be about 2 shipments a week of 160 rolls of 1 inch wide foam 0.100 inch thick and 3500 meters long. That is a lot of masks and still the reports are that there are shortages of masks. This is definitely the worst outbreak since the Spanish Flu, and hopefully it won't reach those proportions.

Even though the Covid-19 Flu is less deadly than others like SARS per number of cases, it has turned out to cause more deaths. That is because of the long incubation period, the ability to transmit the disease before you even know you have it and even the low morbidity plays a role, because if a large number of people died from it right away they wouldn't be able to transmit the virus to others as effectively.
MadMark FEB 24, 11:50 AM
One other note: The John Hopkins website is still not functioning properly. I just tried again and it crashed completely. Interesting!

I just found a different site: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ I don't know how good it is yet or how well it is documented. But, with just a cursory look at it the curve for deaths is showing a definite exponential curve upwards.