Hudini...from your unique perspective, thoughts on the new Chinese corona virus (Page 20/146)
theogre FEB 07, 02:42 AM
While you twits whining all day everyday... Meanwhile the Dr that first posted had new Virus same or worse then Sars has Died yesterday.
Was changed w/ spreading rumors etc against the PRC. If he lived that would very likely ruin his job and the rest of his live and go to prison for a long time.

https://www.theguardian.com...r-doctor-li-wenliang
Fats FEB 07, 02:54 AM

quote
Originally posted by theogre:

While you twits whining all day everyday... Meanwhile the Dr that first posted had new Virus same or worse then Sars has Died yesterday.
Was changed w/ spreading rumors etc against the PRC. If he lived that would very likely ruin his job and the rest of his live and go to prison for a long time.

https://www.theguardian.com...r-doctor-li-wenliang



Hey listen here bud, I don't whine all day. I work nights.

Brad
MidEngineManiac FEB 07, 03:06 AM

quote
Originally posted by Fats:


Hey listen here bud, I don't whine all day. I work nights.

Brad



Besides, I hate whine. I'll stick to the beer.
randye FEB 07, 04:25 AM

quote
Originally posted by theogre:

While you twits whining all day everyday... Meanwhile the Dr that first posted had new Virus same or worse then Sars has Died yesterday.
Was changed w/ spreading rumors etc against the PRC. If he lived that would very likely ruin his job and the rest of his live and go to prison for a long time.

https://www.theguardian.com...r-doctor-li-wenliang



He was reported to have been arrested by the Communist Chinese government and forced to sign a statement that everything he said was false.

My strong suspicion is that he died from a a 7.62mm "virus" that was "injected" into the back of his skull at high velocity.

[This message has been edited by randye (edited 02-07-2020).]

Wichita FEB 07, 06:00 AM
I was wondering why all the hoopla about all of this. Why are they going to extremes to contain this and quarantine cities and people? Typical seasonal influenza in the USA along each year kills tens of thousands.

Then I seen the ratio of deaths vs infected, and that is why this virus is very scary.

In the USA, they said around 30,000 died last year from the flu, but they also estimated that 60 million people in the USA had the flu last year. That's around 0.05% of the people who get the flu will die.

The Coronavirus, the live update: 31,532 cases with 638 deaths, which equates to 2% kill ratio, but they also list of those cases 4,826 people are in critical condition in hospitals, which is 15%. It is reasonable to expect that between 5%-10% of that critical condition population may die. Which is inline from other information I've been seeing, that this could very well have a kill ratio of 10%.

So imagine in the USA that this spreads like the typical flu and 60 million people get the coronavirus. It will kill, even with hospital care, 6 million people. That's insane. That is why China and the rest of the world is going at great lengths to contain this. Let's say even the most optimistic kill ratio of 2%, which is it known to do right now, and say 100% of the people in critical condition recover. That is still 1.2 million people will die. That is still insanely high.

The coronavirus is a loc4, meaning if one person has it, they will typically spread it to at least 4 other people. So that has an exponential spread rate.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


This one is scary!!!
MidEngineManiac FEB 07, 08:31 AM
I'll try to refund the link later, but it seems secondary infection is possible with this one. Once you recover you can catch it again.

Even the healthiest will get worn down by that. You might survive the 1st or 2nd, even the 3rd. By the 4th time around you are probably on real shaky ground.

Edit

https://news.cgtn.com/news/...HRWkxZMre/index.html

[This message has been edited by MidEngineManiac (edited 02-07-2020).]

olejoedad FEB 07, 08:40 AM
So now we are a bunch of twits?

Tell us how you really feel, ogre!
MidEngineManiac FEB 07, 09:17 AM

quote
Originally posted by olejoedad:

So now we are a bunch of twits?

Tell us how you really feel, ogre!



I'm not. I've been told enough times to know I'm a ****ing azzhole.
maryjane FEB 07, 09:35 AM

quote
Originally posted by MadMark:

maryjane and others more familiar with the oil industry, I have a question and a concern that I would hope you can address.

Since China is on lock down across a large portion of the countryside, their use of oil products has decreased by 20%. This is proving to glut the worldwide oil markets. I saw today that gasoline is down to $2.25 a gallon here in Mid Michigan. That is the lowest its been in a while. The worry I have is that the price of a barrel of oil will drop too far, because of this glut. By too far I mean that it will drop so far that our producers in the US will not be able to continue to make a profit and may have to shut down production on their higher cost wells. Specifically the ones that have brought about this boon in oil in the US. It was my understanding that oil prices needed to be somewhere around $60 a barrel for those type of wells to make a profit. So is this oil glut going to decimate our US oil producers? Will it cause the US to become dependent on offshore oil supplies again?



The short and simple answer to your question is "No".

Once production of any field is established, and the infrastructure to get it to the refineries is complete, it doesn't cost much (or any) more to produce that oil than it does the more 'conventional" methods. It's development of new fields or plays that cost so much and IF the producers see a relatively long term glut or period of depressed global prices, then it's new development** that would be temporarily shelved. Additionally, this country now has a small but important excess production capacity, so it wouldn't be a matter of shutting down wells, it would just be throttling back on 'flows'.


Demand DOES tho play a big part in the price of crude oil, since it's a globally traded commodity. It's winter in the Northern hemisphere and the switch to home heating oil began in Dec, which means there is less crude refining capacity for gasoline, so it's not unusual to see gasoline retail price to spike at the beginning of winter until the refiners get a good indication of just how much needs to be made of each type fuel.

It's almost always the oilfield service companies that shut down or go belly up when prices drop, and that is currently happening. 42 US and Canadian service companies closed their doors or filed for bankruptcy protection in 2019, up 50% over 2018. These are companies that provide service, equipment or logistics to the drilling companies. Companies like Schlumberger, BakerHughes, Halliburton, National Oilwell Varco...and a lot of important but less familiar names.

** This is the type 'new development' I'm speaking of:
https://www.forbes.com/site...covery/#5f5db27c2c91
In Dec 2018, USGS released their assessment of the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring oil reserves thought to exist within the Delaware Basin in far West Texas and Eastern New Mexico. The USGS estimates that over 46 billion barrels of oil, 280 trillion cubic feet of gas, and 20 billion barrels of natural gas liquids are trapped in these low-permeability shale formations. To better understand just how staggering these numbers are, think about this: at the end of 2017, total U.S. proven reserves of crude oil hovered around 40 billion barrels. For natural gas, figures stood around 465 trillion cubic feet (tcf). The new upward revision of Permian resources represents a more than 100% and 65% increase in U.S. oil and gas reserves. In other words, the US oil and natural gas reserves have doubled due to this new reserve.

Drilling has slowed down right now, because there is no need for more oil. It's pretty easy nowadays for production to outstrip storage capacity at the big hub in Cushing Oklahoma and other places.

[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 02-07-2020).]

cliffw FEB 07, 10:00 AM

quote
Originally posted by MadMark:
maryjane and others more familiar with the oil industry, I have a question and a concern that I would hope you can address.




quote
Originally posted by maryjane:
The short and simple answer to your question is "No".



I am glad you answered that maryjane. I would have had the same answer but butchered the explanation.

Mark, the oilfield has always been a boom or bust industry. Feast or famine. I only popped in to add some thoughts. I have decommissioned some older rigs, some sold, some scrapped. China was a customer for both.

It seems the scrap metal they buy from the US (not just oil rigs) they melt. It seems like they cut the metal with other additives, sort of like a drug dealer cuts his product to make more quantity, and in some instances, sells it back to the USA. The US oil industry mostly will not allow it on the job.

Some rigs were reverse engineered and now has their own oil industry. I hear tell that they have their own drilling rigs in the Gulf of Mexico and off the intercontinental boundaries of the US mainland, in the Atlantic.

I heard a news story that this virus is another incentive for China to approve our trade wars.