Hudini...from your unique perspective, thoughts on the new Chinese corona virus (Page 138/146)
maryjane MAY 11, 12:50 PM

quote
Updates May 10 (GMT)
20,329 new cases and 750 new deaths in the United States
Lowest number of new cases and lowest number of new deaths since the end of March
rinselberg MAY 12, 11:20 AM
Regents Professor Michael T. Osterholm, PhD, is the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

As a guest on the Monday night edition of "The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell", Dr. Osterholm reminds prospective SARS-CoV-2 virus replication centers nationwide--that's you and me and everyone else in this nation--that "It's not how fast you test, it's how you test fast."

Either of these Internet page links provides this brief video content:

YouTube video (47 seconds)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=--P3Hxx8BeA

Or... MSNBC(.com)
https://www.msnbc.com/the-l...not-true-83315781913

[This message has been edited by rinselberg (edited 05-12-2020).]

rinselberg MAY 12, 06:04 PM
Santa Clara County surrounds the city of San Jose and includes a large swath of California's "Silicon Valley." There are almost 2 million residents. Santa Clara County Health Officer Dr. Sara Cody was among the first in the nation to push for "stay at home" or "shelter in place" interpretations of "social distancing" as a response to the strains of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that started to be detected in the United States during 1Q 2020.

I just stumbled upon this in the San Jose Mercury News online.

quote
Stanford University researchers have moderated their controversial estimate of how many people in Santa Clara County were infected by the COVID-19 virus by early April — but stand by their conclusion that the illness was much more widespread than anyone knew.

In a revised analysis of a startling study published last month, they now estimate that 2.8% of Santa Clara residents were previously infected by the virus but didn’t know it.

That implies that the county had up to 54,000 infections — many more than the 1,000 confirmed cases in the county [that were being reported] at the time.



quote
If true, it means that the large majority of people [in Santa Clara County] who contracted COVID-19 [were infected with the virus] in the early days of the pandemic have recovered without ever knowing they were infected. With so many undetected infections, it also means that the death rate is lower than presumed.

The team’s initial study was slightly higher, placing the estimate of infected residents between 2.5% to 4.15%, which suggested up to 81,000 infections.

That study, the first of its type in the nation, incited a fierce debate over the paper’s methodology, with statisticians taking to Twitter to debate sampling methods and test reliability.


That's part of a longer report.

"Coronavirus: Revised Stanford estimate says Santa Clara County had 54 times more cases than we knew about"

quote
After criticism, the researchers corrected some of the statistical imperfections with new data and analyses


Lisa M Krieger for the San Jose Mercury News; May 11, 2020.
https://www.mercurynews.com...-than-we-knew-about/

It makes me wonder if there was any kriging of the data.

[This message has been edited by rinselberg (edited 05-12-2020).]

Lambo nut MAY 12, 06:47 PM
rinselberg MAY 12, 07:49 PM
Two comments about that table of mortality numbers:

First, it would appear to be comparing the entire 24 months of 2017 and 2018 to just the most recent two or two and a half months since Covid-19 deaths were being recorded here in the U.S. in any numbers.

And second, the Covid-19 deaths have been during a time of statewide lockdowns to various degrees. The social distancing and "stay at home" or "shelter in place" declarations that have been in effect, across or within various states that altogether, add up to most of the people in this country.

The deaths from influenza and pneumonia that are side by side in that table were not affected by any social distancing (that I'm aware of.)

[This message has been edited by rinselberg (edited 05-12-2020).]

maryjane MAY 12, 10:03 PM
I suspect the 2017-2018 flu season was chosen for a reason.

By ASSOCIATED PRESS SEPTEMBER 26, 2018

CDC:50,000- 80,000 people died of flu last winter in U.S., highest death toll in 40 years

CDC actually says 2017-2018 death from flu in the US was 61,099.
2018-2019 death toll from flu was 34,157, but that isn't as sensationalistic as using the worst flu season.

(you can check every season from 2010 to 2019 here )

[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 05-12-2020).]

rinselberg MAY 12, 10:57 PM
Roger that. And when I brought up these SARS-CoV-2 statewide and municipal lockdowns and social distancing, I want to highlight the difference in air travel.

I am not about to look up the numbers at this minute, but aren't we talking about passenger air travel and numbers of flights that are just 10 percent, compared to 2017 and 2018? International and within the United States?

I think that is likely HUGE in terms of how the disease experts are looking at the SARS-CoV-2 statistics, as far as infections, hospitalizations and deaths.

There's no basis for comparison with those numbers.


"It's not how fast you test, it's how you test fast."

[This message has been edited by rinselberg (edited 05-17-2020).]

maryjane MAY 17, 01:08 AM
To me, Texas is running behind the curve on testing.
29 million population here and so far, the State dashboard says they have tested only 678,471 people.
Public tests
22,378
Private Labs
656,093

My county now has 12 active cases. Zero deaths.
My state has 46,999 total cumulative Cases Reported
1,305 Fatalities
26,601 estimated Recovered
An Estimated 19,093 active cases.


Texas began relaxing their distancing and lockdown protocols on May 1 or approx 2 weeks ago.
rinselberg MAY 18, 11:47 AM
Putting a thumb on the scales: Seasonal influenza deaths being overestimated and Covid-19 deaths, underestimated.

quote
In a report published Thursday in the Journal of the American Medicine Association, Drs. Carlos del Rio and Jeremy Faust suggested that people were incorrectly using the flu-to-coronavirus comparison to downplay the severity and deadliness of COVID-19. . . .


Holly Secon for Business Insider; May 14, 2020.
https://www.businessinsider...ounted-report-2020-5


That's the "over the counter" version. Here's the "prescription" version. Just a few (albeit, long) paragraphs and a list of sources and references.

Assessment of Deaths From COVID-19 and From Seasonal Influenza
Jeremy Samuel Faust (MD, MS) and Carlos del Rio (MD) for the Journal of the AMA (JAMA) for Internal Medicine; May 14, 2020.
https://jamanetwork.com/j ou...=tfl&utm_term=051420

[This message has been edited by rinselberg (edited 05-18-2020).]

maryjane MAY 18, 11:08 PM
You will never get the conspiracy theorists/deniers to understand or accept any of that Rinselberg.

Months back, I posted a quote from CDC that very plainly explained what the links you posted coroborated, and in fact, CDC stated that in any given year, there are relatively few mortality reports that said the deceased actually died form the flu. Most simply say 'respiratory failure from flu like illness' and up to a year later, CDC extrapolates a number for total deaths, based not on deaths, but on the number of reported flu cases.


I do very much hope this all fades and the virus becomes a minor problem and this thread equally fades into obscurity.

My initial interest in the virus and reason for starting the thread is stems from my long held interest in Asia and the fact that China did go public with the virus, albeit late and not entirely transparently. For China to even tell/admit to the world that they have an internal problem is a rare occurrence. I very much suspected then, that this was more than 'just a flu'.