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| Hudini...from your unique perspective, thoughts on the new Chinese corona virus (Page 135/146) |
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MidEngineManiac
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APR 21, 05:41 PM
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| quote | Originally posted by williegoat:
I was even able to score this:
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So I figured it was OK to go ahead and buy this:
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I would post a video of me dancing a jig, if I didn't think it would get me speedbanned.
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I am going to mug you for those chips. NOBODY around here has them anymore. They were around for a bit last summer then disappeared.
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williegoat
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APR 21, 05:45 PM
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| quote | Originally posted by MidEngineManiac:
I am going to mug you for those chips. NOBODY around here has them anymore. They were around for a bit last summer then disappeared.
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I think they are illegal in Canada. It's for your own good.
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D B Cooper
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APR 21, 09:03 PM
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| quote | Originally posted by maryjane:
A little maybe, but only because of the recovered rate. A week ago recovery was 60/40 over the death rate within the {cases with an outcome} category and now stands at 62/38.
Still running 2000-3000 new deaths every day and around 30,000 new cases every day.
Still increasing cases by 100,000 every 3.5 days.
Apr 17 (GMT)
32165 new cases and 2535 new deaths in the United States
US reaches 700,000 cases per day.
Apr 16 (GMT)
29567 new cases and 2174 new deaths in the United States
April 15 (GMT)
30206 new cases and 2482 new deaths in the United States
April 14 (GMT)
26945 new cases and 2407 new deaths in the United States
US reaches 600,000 cases
April 13 (GMT)
26641 new cases and 1535 new deaths in the United States
April 12 (GMT)
27421 new cases and 1528 new deaths in the United States
April 11 (GMT)
30003 new cases and 1830 new deaths in the United States
April 10 (GMT)
33752 new cases and 2035 new deaths in the United States
US reaches 500,000 cases.
April 9 (GMT)
33536 new cases and 1900 new deaths in the United States
April 8 (GMT)
31935 new cases and 1940 new deaths in the United States.
April 7 (GMT)interim
33331 new cases and 1970 new deaths in the United States.
US reaches 400,000 cases.
April 6 (GMT)
30331 new cases and 1255 new deaths in the United States
April 5 (GMT)
25316 new cases and 1165 new deaths in the United States.
April 4 (GMT)
34196 new cases and 1331 new deaths in the United States
US reaches 300,000 cases.
April 3 (GMT)
32284 new cases and 1321 new deaths in the United States
April 2 (GMT)
29874 new cases and 968 new deaths in the United States
April 1 (GMT)
alert 26473 new cases and 1049 new deaths in the United States
US reaches 200,000 cases
March 31 (GMT)
24742 new cases and 912 new deaths in the United States
March 30 (GMT)
20297 new cases and 558 new deaths in the United States
March 29 (GMT)
19913 new cases and 362 new deaths in the United States
March 28 (GMT)
19452 new cases and 525 new deaths in the United States
March 27 (GMT)
alert 18691 new cases and 401 new deaths in the United States
US total reaches 100,000 cases. |
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The criterion being used for recovery is simply cases a month old that didn't go into the deaths category. Hence the 'recovered' number being at zero for so long, then jumping. It's falling gradually now because the number of cases a month ago is a growing number. Using a ratio of total deaths (day x) / total cases (day x-10) has consistently given a result ~8-9% throughout the outbreak, and is probably the best available estimate of the outcomes (at least in the subset of cases that are confirmed).[This message has been edited by D B Cooper (edited 04-21-2020).]
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maryjane
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APR 22, 08:20 AM
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| quote | Originally posted by LitebulbwithaFiero:
Maryjane, when do you believe is the appropriate time to open back up?
No attack, honest question. |
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Beyond my paygrade. Way better minds than mine are pondering the same question.
But, definitely to be left up to the governors and legislatures of each state, and maybe even in metro areas, left up to the mayors. Many rural areas could probably open up now, with some restrictions on large gatherings. I know how people are, and as soon as an area 'opens back up' they will go back to the old ways, especially in bars, clubs, social gatherings and many eateries. For the next few months, I would think a 'new' normal will have to be established and practiced until we see how things go. I would like to see manufacturing open back up pretty quickly, smaller goods and services businesses as well. Big 3 Auto and their supply chain I would like to see go back to work in May early June with some close monitoring of how many sick folks are coming in to work each day. There are over a million restaurants in the US and about 15 million employees. The last #s I saw on that sector was over 1/2 are out of work right now and they may have to make some changes in seating, # of customers inside at any given time frame and/or insist every customer use hand sanitizer when entering and leaving, but if they do it right, a lot of those can go back to work in most towns PDQ..I hope.
They 'the minds' are going to have to do some really close monitoring going forward to see what works and what does not as far as infection rates look like.
Parks/recreation can probably open to a big degree now, as long as people don't act stupid.
A big question is going to be in plants like the meat processors up in the midwest. If we don't see some quick progress in those, we are going to see some negative effects on the consumer end of things in the way of shortages in beef and pork, maybe poultry as well. The companies themselves want to open up..didn't want to close to begin with but the employees pretty much forced them too. Contrary to what a lot of people believe, there are very few of those processing plants in the US anymore as mergers and buyouts have grouped all the small and medium plants into the giants. Tyson, National Beef, ConAgra, JBS, Smithfield, Perdue, Sysco, Sanderson Farms, Hormel are the big ones. They are the bottleneck in the supply chain. Some still running, some not.
As both a small beef producer and as a consumer, it affects me directly just as it does most people and it will likely get worse for all consumers if things don't improve.
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maryjane
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APR 22, 08:32 AM
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| quote | Originally posted by D B Cooper:
The criterion being used for recovery is simply cases a month old that didn't go into the deaths category. Hence the 'recovered' number being at zero for so long, then jumping. It's falling gradually now because the number of cases a month ago is a growing number. Using a ratio of total deaths (day x) / total cases (day x-10) has consistently given a result ~8-9% throughout the outbreak, and is probably the best available estimate of the outcomes (at least in the subset of cases that are confirmed).
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Which doesn't take in to account the many who never had any symptoms at all.
There is a network I believe of 14 states and 27 urban areas that CDC/CTSE monitors more closely than others and collected #s on hospitilazations & those are driving the decision making process on a national level .
California, Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Tennessee, and Utah.
How and why they chose those particular 14, I'm not sure.
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D B Cooper
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APR 22, 09:46 AM
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| quote | Originally posted by maryjane:
Which doesn't take in to account the many who never had any symptoms at all.
There is a network I believe of 14 states and 27 urban areas that CDC/CTSE monitors more closely than others and collected #s on hospitilazations & those are driving the decision making process on a national level .
California, Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Tennessee, and Utah.
How and why they chose those particular 14, I'm not sure.
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Nope, it only gives a decent gauge of what's going on in that tip of the iceberg that we have halfway solid data on. But I would suggest that an improvement over time in that measure would indicate improvement in treatment effectiveness, rather than just maturation of the case data itself, which is what we see in their percentages of cases with an outcome. That's all I was getting at.
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maryjane
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APR 22, 10:25 AM
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This out today, case study from the Veterans Administration.
https://www.forbes.com/site...-finds/#75b426e930e4
KEY FACTS
*With 368 patient records from Veterans Health Administration analyzed, the Associated Press reported that the study is the largest look at the use of hydroxychloroquine with or without azithromycin, an antibiotic.
*The records of three roughly equal groups were examined—those given hydroxychloroquine alone, those given hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, and those who received neither drug.
*About 28% of patients given hydroxychloroquine plus usual care died, compared to 22% who received the drug plus azithromycin.
*About 11% of those who received neither drug passed away, but when the researchers controlled for other factors, they concluded this represented a similar risk to the group that received the combination of the two drugs, but that “the risk of death from any cause was higher” among those who took hydroxychloroquine alone.
*Hydroxychloroquine made no difference in patients’ needs for ventilators, in combination or alone, according to the study.
“These findings highlight the importance of awaiting the results of ongoing prospective, randomized, controlled studies before widespread adoption of these drugs,” the researchers wrote.
CRUCIAL QUOTE
“I think we’re all rather underwhelmed” at what’s been seen in patients who tried hydroxychloroquine, University of Madison infection control director Nasia Safdar told the AP. “But now I think that people have realized we don’t know if it works or not.” [This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 04-22-2020).]
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maryjane
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APR 28, 12:41 PM
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Texas, it looks like, will officially' 're-open' any closed retail businesses to @ least 25% seating capacities beginning in 3 days. Some counties, thelimit will be 50%, if the cases within that county is smaller.
Other than being able to eat inside restaurants, we probably won't notice much difference where I live.
With the exception of schools, theaters, museums and restaurants, (and the o&g sector) much of Texas has been operating at about 75% the whole time.
It is not an order, it is a relaxing of a previous protocol, and in the end, the decision is left up to the individual business or franchise. Gov is not forcing anyone to open up more than already, but the new rules supersede local and county rules.
Texas currently has:
25,516total cases 672 deaths 13,674active cases with 1,682 hospitalized
My county now has 9 cases zero deaths.
The county (county line 6 miles away) where I do most of my shopping and other business, has 38 cases zero fatalities, but less than 40 miles south of me, Harris county has 5,826 cases with 98 deaths.
I'll be watching the stats closely the next few weeks to see if cases/fatalities/hospitializations go up,down or remain about the same.
| quote | Governor Greg Abbott has announced he will let his previous stay-at-home order expire Thursday, along with new plans to reopen businesses starting this week.
Abbott at a press conference this (Monday) afternoon announced the first phase of his plans to lift restrictions on businesses. Starting Friday, all retail stores, restaurants, movie theaters, malls, libraries, and museums can reopen at 25 percent occupancy. Counties with five or fewer confirmed cases will be allowed to reopen those facilities at 50 percent capacity.
Abbott said this will allow businesses to open in a way that uses safe standards for them, their employees, and their customers. He noted that businesses are not required to reopen, and can remain closed if they choose to. He said businesses that do not abide by the occupancy instructions are subject to lose their business license.
Also included in the order are churches and places of worship, which Abbott said can hold expanded services starting Friday. Outdoor sports can also resume, provided they do not involve more than four participants at any given time. In addition, licensed health care professionals will be allowed to reopen their businesses, but licensed hospitals will need to keep 15 percent of their capacity reserved for COVID-19 patients.
Businesses not included in Abbott’s order are barber shops, hair salons, bars, clubs, and gyms. He said he hopes that those businesses can reopen by mid-May.
Abbott said the most important element of this first phase is protecting those most vulnerable, so the state will continue to emphasize remaining at home if at all possible. He said citizens will still be strongly encouraged—but not required—to wear masks. He said the state will also redouble its efforts to protect seniors in nursing homes and senior living centers.
If the spread of the virus is contained, Abbott said the state will move around May 18th to phase two, which will expand the occupancy limit to 50 percent. He said further increases will happen as long as the virus remains contained and there is no “flare-up”.
Abbott also announced that Texas has the third most recovered COVID-19 cases of any state in the nation, saying confirmed cases have been “on the decline” for the past 17 days and the state’s hospitalization rate has held steady. He added the number of recoveries in Texas will soon exceed the number of active cases. |
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https://kwhi.com/abbott-ret...th-limited-capacity/
Driving around last weekend (Sat) I noticed...
The lawyers' offices are still open, the florists are still open, the donut shops are still open, the meat markets are still open, the machine shops are still open, the auto parts stores are still open, the plumbers are still open, the new and used tire shops are still open, the feed stores are still open, the livestock sale barns are still open, the bait tackle shops are still open, New and used car/truck dealerships are open, the liquor stores are still open, the local and big drug stores are still open, the salvage metal places are still open, the motorcycle/RTV sales and repair shops are still open, the flea markets are still open, the lawn mower sales and lawn equipment repair shops are still open, the gas station/convienence stores are all still open, the propane places are still open, the banks are still open, the plant nurseries are still open, all the Tractor Supply franchises are still open, the boot and western wear places are still open, the laundramats are still open, the little local hardware stores are still open (I was in one today) the fabric and quilt shop is still open, Post offices and UPS dropoff are still open, ...
some have restrictions on how many customers can be inside at one time but they're still open. All the restaurants, big and little are still open but are take out only, the gun ranges and gunshops are still open, Fastenal is still open, welding shop is open and doing a lot of business, quick oil change places are all still open, both dry cleaners here are still open.
Only places I know for sure that are actually closed around here are the bars, inside movie theater, barber shops and womens nail/hair salons*. Each of those 4 require close personal contact or crowds in order to function. Verizon phonestore is closed but the ATT ph store is still open. (Verizon closed by choice, not by govt order), land title and surveyor offices are still open. Real estate agents are all still open, the insurance offices are all still open, veterinarians are still open, the sawmills are still open.
*I did notice that there were women inside one of the nail salons getting her nails done, but that appeared to be an exception..maybe 'by appointment only' ?[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 04-28-2020).]
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rinselberg
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APR 28, 02:01 PM
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"Cuomo's Criteria"
Adhere to the CDC guidelines for Reopening. Starting with 14 days of uninterrupted decline in the number of (new?) Covid-19 hospitalizations as one of the preconditions for Reopening.
Look within the construction and manufacturing sectors for the first businesses to Reopen. There are lots of workers that can be reactivated, and the kinds of work and work settings are generally compatible with social distancing and other on-the-job virus mitigation and containment practices. More so than in other sectors such as retail and restaurants.
Condition Green... unless these conditions are being observed, Reopening should not proceed, or if it's already underway, needs to be reevaluated:
- Hospital utilization not to exceed 70 percent, respecting the other 30 percent as surge capacity. (Especially important as seasonal influenza starts up again in 4Q 2020.)
- Rate of Transmission not to exceed 1.1 and preferably, less than 1.
The hospital utilization criteria is just as important for areas of low population density as it is for densely populated cities and suburbs.
Taken from the New York State Governor's briefing earlier today.[This message has been edited by rinselberg (edited 04-28-2020).]
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maryjane
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APR 28, 03:00 PM
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| quote |
Look within the construction and manufacturing sectors for the first businesses to Reopen. |
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I suppose that depends on how many declining jobs there have been in those 2 sectors.
Manufacturing always gets a lot of media attention but for many regions and states, it is almost insignificant in job totality and in change and % of the unemployment rate.
This is NY, according to the most recent BoL statistics. Note that the change in NY's Manufacturing workforce is less than a 1% decrease and the construction trades actually show not quite a 1% increase :
https://www.bls.gov/regions...sey/new_york.htm#eag
The leisure/hospitality/financial and Trade-Transports-Utility sectors are the big decliners for NY state.
The only negative numbers (no growth) in Tx are in Mining/Logging with almost all of that from oil and gas sector and it's not related in any significant amount to Covid-19.
 [This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 04-28-2020).]
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