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| Hudini...from your unique perspective, thoughts on the new Chinese corona virus (Page 129/146) |
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maryjane
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APR 11, 06:46 PM
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| quote | Originally posted by williegoat:
Do you think that will be permanent?
Or can it be brushed off as just the latest wave? |
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We will just have to let it all set for awhile to find out.
Quantities might taper off sharply, but supplies should be replaced quickly in either a sharp peak or more slowly to even a flat top.
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blackrams
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APR 13, 07:48 AM
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| quote | The experts the state talked with at Columbia University, McKinsey and elsewhere were asked to model something that had never been modeled before. Using their work to prepare the state was the right move, Cuomo said.
“They didn’t know how unified New Yorkers can be and how responsible they can be and how caring they are,” he said. “That’s what they couldn’t count in those models. They couldn’t count the spirit of New Yorkers (Americans)and the love of New Yorkers (Americans) to step up and do the right thing.
“That’s what they couldn’t figure out on their computers.” |
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Just my perspective but, whoever said that Columbia University, McKinsey is full of crap. What caused people to finally pay attention and start following "Social Distancing" and the other hygiene recommendations was not any form of patriotism or "Spirit/Love" of New Yorkers or Americans, I suppose one could construe it as "Love" for Granny. What finally got people's attention was the death toll and fear.
We don't like being told what to do and will generally do what we want until we figure out there are consequences to our own actions. Fear is a huge motivator.
Rams[This message has been edited by blackrams (edited 04-15-2020).]
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2.5
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APR 13, 07:50 AM
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No need to put words in my mouth it's not about me.. it's a little bit more thorough accurate reporting I guess. I did see they are spmewhat thinking of localized business closures such as places most affected, more than places the virus isn't as much yet, not that I know whether that's a better idea. But are you saying they really think the real bigger picture curve as gone by in North America? I'm not sure how it works I thought since it needs a host, the host is gonna be there sooner or later, "the curve" will take longer when quarantining?[This message has been edited by 2.5 (edited 04-13-2020).]
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2.5
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APR 13, 07:54 AM
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| quote | Originally posted by Hudini:
Flattening the curve only means pushing the cases out over a longer timeline. It does not mean less cases. I believe the intent was only to not overwhelm the need for ventilators or beds. The only good news is that most people won't suffer the worst effects. However, it still feels like playing the roulette wheel. |
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Agreed.[This message has been edited by 2.5 (edited 04-13-2020).]
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MidEngineManiac
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APR 13, 08:10 AM
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The curve-flattening is only semi-succ3sul as we are seeing on the nightly news.
Those most likely to be severe cases tend to live in clusters. Old age homes, retirement villages, assisted living, those types of places. Once the virus gets on there the percentage is horrendous. We have a few that hit the news with 50% or better severe cases.
https://www.680news.com/202...eak-of-covid-19/amp/[This message has been edited by MidEngineManiac (edited 04-13-2020).]
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maryjane
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APR 13, 09:10 AM
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| quote | Originally posted by blackrams:
Just my perspective but, whoever said that is full of crap. What caused people to finally pay attention and start following "Social Distancing" and the other hygiene recommendations was not any form of patriotism or "Spirit/Love" of New Yorkers or Americans, I suppose one could construe it as "Love" for Granny. What finally got people's attention was the death toll and fear.
We don't like being told what to do and will generally do what we want until we figure out there are consequences to our own actions. Fear is a huge motivator.
Rams |
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We?
Speak for yourself.
'Fear'is a term way over used in this context and many others.
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maryjane
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APR 13, 10:04 AM
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| quote | Originally posted by Hudini:
Flattening the curve only means pushing the cases out over a longer timeline. It does not mean less cases. I believe the intent was only to not overwhelm the need for ventilators or beds. The only good news is that most people won't suffer the worst effects. However, it still feels like playing the roulette wheel. |
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Not exactly. The graphs most of us look at are 2 axis, x/y showing time (period) and quantities (amplitude). It's much like an oscilloscope graph..
It is thought that for this illness, the flat part of the curve will last 'about' the same period regardless of the number of infected at the top of the graph.
Exactly how long the flat part lasts depends on demographics (avg age and pre-existing risk factors) and how well the infected are treated and thus how quickly they are able to recover..or not, and die.
Number of total infections:
In a fast moving, fast killing pandemic with a short incubation time, and a short infectious time there would be virtually no curve on a graph, just a sharp climb over a short period of time to a 'pointed' peak, then an equally sharp drop, as the number of newly infected hosts are limited by death.
It has been shown, that for every 1000 people infected in each country, a certain and mostly predictable % of the infected for any given country are going to die.
IF, the total # of infected levels off at 200,000, then the total killed is going to be far higher (assumed to be 2x higher) for the flat time period than if the total infected (again, for any given country) had leveled off at only 100,000.[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 04-13-2020).]
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blackrams
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APR 13, 06:05 PM
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| quote | Originally posted by maryjane:
We?
Speak for yourself.
'Fear'is a term way over used in this context and many others.
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Don,
In this case, “we” is a generic term meaning the population as a whole. Humans and especially Americans who hold our Constitution as a defining document of our rights don’t like being told to stay at home or away from the beach (as an example).
I’ll fully admit to following the guidance provided because I didn’t want to risk catching COVID-19. Was it fear or good common sense? I guess we each have to decide that for ourselves. I maintain that the majority of New Yorkers only started to pay attention and followed the guidance when they saw other New Yorkers dropping dead.
The definition of Courage I subscribe to is having fear but with the willingness to carry forward regardless of that fear.
Rams[This message has been edited by blackrams (edited 04-14-2020).]
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Fats
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APR 13, 06:20 PM
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For what it's worth, Chicago is nearly back to regular traffic now. Going through Michigan is lighter traffic, but not that much less than normal really.
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maryjane
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APR 14, 02:36 AM
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| quote | Originally posted by blackrams:
Don,
In this case, “we” is a generic term meaning the population as a whole. Humans and especially Americans who hold our Constitution as a defining document of our rights don’t like being told to stay at home or away from the beach (as an example).
I’ll fully admit to following the guidance provided because I didn’t want to risk catching COVID-19. Was it fear or good common sense? I guess we each have to decide that for ourselves. I maintain that the majority of New Yorkers only starting to pay attention and followed the guidance when they saw other New Yorkers dropping dead.
The definition of Courage I subscribe to is having fear but with the willingness to carry forward regardless of that fear.
Rams
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I find most of that very hard to believe, considering for how long, and how many times and how emphatically it has been stated over and over by just about anyone with any medical credentials that the regular masks DO NOT protect the wearer from coronavirus. I know of no one that thinks they do.
'Fear' of GETTING it has nothing whatsoever with wearing a mask.
| quote | The main benefit of wearing masks in public isn’t to protect you from getting sick. Rather, it’s to protect others from yourself if you’re sick or you’re an asymptomatic carrier. “This is more for people who might be infected and don’t know it, and to try and lower the likelihood that they will spread this to somebody else,” CNN Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta said. The CDC agreed.
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