 
     |
| Hudini...from your unique perspective, thoughts on the new Chinese corona virus (Page 127/146) |
|
maryjane
|
APR 10, 08:01 PM
|
|
| quote | Originally posted by 2.5:
So what about the rest of the US?
New York isn't going to be on the same timeline as say Cleveland, or Albuquerque.
Sometimes watching the news its like Hollywood movie stuff, for example, where only New York City and LA matter.
The overrunning of hospitals isn't happening in many places. Some counties in the US likely have no cases. (then theres cases that never get tested too)
I'm here in MN thinking, we wont be peaking for probably at least over a month after NY does.
Not to mention when people are back out on the loose, do they expect it to be gone, or start spreading again?
|
|
Yeah..what about ME? I want to see some news about my county. Do we just not matter? Do I not matter?
I have totals from covid-19 envy....
BUT, MOST, of the rest of North America has already turned the curve.
https://www.ft.com/__origam...urce=next&width=1260
|
|
|
Patrick
|
APR 10, 08:28 PM
|
|
Don't feel bad, Don. Our forum friends in Aussie-land have had their entire country left off that list. 
|
|
|
|
maryjane
|
APR 10, 08:32 PM
|
|
|
FT couldn't figure out how to make an upside down graph?
|
|
|
Patrick
|
APR 10, 08:37 PM
|
|
They didn't seem to have any issue with South American countries.  Maybe something for Mad Max to rectify!
|
|
|
|
maryjane
|
APR 10, 09:42 PM
|
|
| quote | Originally posted by maryjane:
Perhaps so Willie. I do hope so. The initial projections were based on people going about life as usual, and not on most of America adhering to sound and basic anti-infection/anti-transmission protocols.
We may see another spike in the next day or so, as NYC announced yesterday they will today begin including those who died at home of suspected Covid19.
Yesterday Apr 9 data:
USA Total=468,566 cases. New cases=33,536+. Total deaths=16,690. New Deaths=1,899. New York's New Deaths=799
So far today, Apr 10 with the daily reporting period about 1/2 over:
USA Total=489,268 cases. New cases=20,702+. Total Deaths=18,015. New deaths= 1,325. New York's new Deaths= 777
|
|
Looks like today's new cases and new deaths will exceed yesterday's US totals.
Nearly 34,000 new cases and over 2000 new deaths.
It is very possible tho, that this range of both will be the 'norm' for awhile ..a flat top of the the curve before the decrease.[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 04-10-2020).]
|
|
|
cliffw
|
APR 11, 12:28 AM
|
|
| quote | Originally posted by maryjane:
The initial projections were based on people going about life as usual, and not on most of America adhering to sound and basic anti-infection/anti-transmission protocols.
|
|
I saw someone interviewed who said the same thing. When pressed that the projections did factor in mitigating procedures, he admitted so.
Of course there are / were many models. I do think the fear factor has / was stoked up quite a bit. If anything, to get people to comply.
|
|
|
|
rinselberg
|
APR 11, 12:41 AM
|
|
"Jesus rode into Jerusalem on an ass. Keep yours at home."
Sign that is currently at the entrance to a church parking lot. When I find a photo of it online, I'll post it. Probably just hasn't been time.[This message has been edited by rinselberg (edited 04-11-2020).]
|
|
|
|
Patrick
|
APR 11, 12:49 AM
|
|
| quote | Originally posted by cliffw:
I do think the fear factor has / was stoked up quite a bit. If anything, to get people to comply.
|
|
It's a no-win situation for governing authorities. If the threat is underplayed, and there's a massive die-off, then the survivors will be irate. If instead, ridged precautions are enforced, and the hospitals end up not being overrun, then the populace will complain that the threat was blown out of proportion.
Pick your poison, but I'd prefer the latter scenario.
|
|
|
Patrick
|
APR 11, 12:54 AM
|
|
| quote | Originally posted by rinselberg:
"Jesus rode into Jerusalem on an ass. Keep yours at home."
Sign that is currently at the entrance to a church parking lot.
|
|
Now that's a cool congregation! 
|
|
|
|
maryjane
|
APR 11, 02:16 AM
|
|
| quote | Originally posted by cliffw:
I saw someone interviewed who said the same thing. When pressed that the projections did factor in mitigating procedures, he admitted so.
Of course there are / were many models. I do think the fear factor has / was stoked up quite a bit. If anything, to get people to comply. |
|
The initial models DID indeed factor in mitigating efforts, but had no real idea just how many US citizens would follow the recommendations. They knew from past epidemics and a couple of declared pandemics that some would take social distancing and quarantines seriously but many would and di not. CDC and federal agencies looked too, at social networks..boards like this one, twitter, FB etc and saw a lot of dismay and negative comments and assumed that t here would be large numbers of people that didn't take this seriously and made their models based on every data bit hey could find. Like most other apects of American society, when it gets down to the nut cuttin, most people do 'the right thing' simply because that is what America (and most other societies) do.
The models are updated continuously, based on new data, and once CDC and other federal and state agencies saw that social distancing was being mostly adhered to, and then the results of that distancing began tto show up as few cases and fewer deaths than originally assumed, they were able to modify downward the projections.
Look at it as similar to how NOAA and NHC now does hurricane path projections. I can remember when projections were very specific from a long way out. The storm "will make landfall in 3 days at XXXXXX city at XXXX time and day, as a category X storm". They were wrong so often that it was causing more deaths and un-needed evacuations some places and no evacuations where it turned out was needed. Now, they take a large view, with the current "cone of uncertainty" and a much longer time aspect with every day updates and model modifications as needed. Modeling for a pandemic is somewhat different tho, as you can't change a storm's path, timing or energy, but you can change how people prepare for and react to a nationwide pandemic.
I don't care a lot for NY Gov Coumo, but he put it pretty much on target.
| quote | The experts the state talked with at Columbia University, McKinsey and elsewhere were asked to model something that had never been modeled before. Using their work to prepare the state was the right move, Cuomo said.
“They didn’t know how unified New Yorkers can be and how responsible they can be and how caring they are,” he said. “That’s what they couldn’t count in those models. They couldn’t count the spirit of New Yorkers (Americans)and the love of New Yorkers (Americans) to step up and do the right thing.
“That’s what they couldn’t figure out on their computers.” |
|
How well do the recommendations work and how seriously do our fellow citizens step up to the plate?
Pretty good as far as I can tell. Walmart for instance has long wanted to drop their sewing and craft sections. They don't sell much of either, but as soon as the federal spokesman Dr. Anthony Fauci stated that he believed every American should wear some kind of mask in public, material, scissors, sewing needles, bias tape, rotary cutters and especially ELASTIC flew off the shelves like toilet paper did earlier. In fact, I saw emptiness on a lot of the sewing area at Walmart just a couple days ago, where 2 weeks earlier it was full. Elastic is now very difficult to find. Do a google search and you will see.
People WANT to do their part, and not out of fear, but simply because it's what we do. (most of us anyway)
I addressed this aspect from an American pov, but the same applies to most nations and their people as well.. It is I believe, in human nature to care about each other above all else regardless of nationality or lines on a map..
Lives are important..whose life it is is not.[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 04-11-2020).]
|
|
|
|