Hudini...from your unique perspective, thoughts on the new Chinese corona virus (Page 11/146)
MadMark FEB 03, 09:09 PM

quote
Originally posted by olejoedad:

I heard that after you have it and survive, you transform into a zombie within six months.



OK, I'll bite. How would anyone know that? Since Wuhan Virus has only been around about 2 months at the most.
MadMark FEB 03, 09:10 PM
Newest information. A large jump today in total cases and in deaths.

"By the end of Monday, more than 20,000 cases and 425 deaths had been reported in China - an increase of more than 3,000 confirmed cases in a single day."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51362336
Hudini FEB 03, 09:16 PM
I think I understand the threat better now. It's not that the death rate is about the same as any other flu. The threat is that no one has immunity to this flu so the potential is to infect everyone at some point. A 5% death rate for 250,000 people is a normal year. But 5% of 7 billion people is a whole different story.

Non-essential workers are required to stay home until February 10th. Schools remain closed until the 17th. Those dates could easily change if it's not under control.

The gov has mandated no cancellation fees for airlines, no money transfer fees, one month free rent, no loss of pay for staying home, no health care cost. There are more.
maryjane FEB 03, 10:05 PM

quote

A third factor would be whether the virus mutates to something worse. Almost always the virus' mutate. Whether the virus mutates to a form that becomes worse or not is the issue.


Oh, it undoubtedly will mutate, just as it already has. At base, it was a virus that causes the common cold.
Becoming zoonotic is a mutation.
Ability to spread from one person to another without contact with the original host animal is a mutation.

We do know, because of the genome sequencing already done, that the change from being able to live in just it host animal (whatever that was) to being able to infect humans happen very recently and very quickly because all the genomes look very much alike. In that aspect, it hasn't changed much (if any) since it 1st began infection humans.
And, mutation works both ways...there's always the possibility it could mutate to 'something' a lot LESS dangerous as well.
Although science believes the initial host for this one came from bats, they also believe the jump to humans involved an intermediate host animal, as there were no bats sold or even present at the seafood market it was believed to have started at. Snakes were a possibility as the intermediate host , but last I read, there was serious doubt the current virus could even survive in snakes.
maryjane FEB 03, 10:09 PM

quote
Originally posted by Hudini:

I think I understand the threat better now. It's not that the death rate is about the same as any other flu. The threat is that no one has immunity to this flu so the potential is to infect everyone at some point. A 5% death rate for 250,000 people is a normal year. But 5% of 7 billion people is a whole different story.

Non-essential workers are required to stay home until February 10th. Schools remain closed until the 17th. Those dates could easily change if it's not under control.

The gov has mandated no cancellation fees for airlines, no money transfer fees, one month free rent, no loss of pay for staying home, no health care cost. There are more.



Thanks for sharing 'boots on the ground' aspect!!! Hate that you're 'stuck' over there, but admire you for staying and not chancing infecting folks at home too.
MadMark FEB 03, 10:33 PM

quote
Originally posted by Hudini:

I think I understand the threat better now. It's not that the death rate is about the same as any other flu. The threat is that no one has immunity to this flu so the potential is to infect everyone at some point. A 5% death rate for 250,000 people is a normal year. But 5% of 7 billion people is a whole different story.

Non-essential workers are required to stay home until February 10th. Schools remain closed until the 17th. Those dates could easily change if it's not under control.

The gov has mandated no cancellation fees for airlines, no money transfer fees, one month free rent, no loss of pay for staying home, no health care cost. There are more.



Hi Hudini: Hope you keep safe over there. What you mention is one big thing. Another would be that there is a lag time between infection and either death or cured. Since it has only been around a couple of months so far, the epidemiologists don't really have a handle on what the death rate will be. And as maryjane mentioned, it could mutate one way or the other. It could get worse or it might even become non-transmissible to humans. Who knows what it will do.

I would think though that with the ability to monitor this with the media we have now compared to the last outbreak that was extremely serious in 1917, we will certainly get a better understanding of how something like this can proceed. Or we may even find that with our technology advances we (or maybe I should say China) might have acted quickly enough to contain it. Who knows? One thing I am sure of is that we will soon find out.

I think it is interesting too, that China being an autocratic society with total control over the population that they can do things we could never accomplish here in the US. Can anyone imagine the US government telling 50 million people that they have to stay home, and in an area that they might get infected with this virus? We don't have enough police to be able to hold back the hordes of US citizens leaving the hot zone.
MadMark FEB 03, 10:53 PM
I found an interesting story about a doctor in Wuhan who tried to warn people that something was going on and the authorities were not impressed.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51364382
randye FEB 03, 11:40 PM

quote
Originally posted by Hudini:

I think I understand the threat better now. It's not that the death rate is about the same as any other flu. The threat is that no one has immunity to this flu so the potential is to infect everyone at some point. A 5% death rate for 250,000 people is a normal year. But 5% of 7 billion people is a whole different story.

Non-essential workers are required to stay home until February 10th. Schools remain closed until the 17th. Those dates could easily change if it's not under control.

The gov has mandated no cancellation fees for airlines, no money transfer fees, one month free rent, no loss of pay for staying home, no health care cost. There are more.



Nobody really has natural immunity to any CoV influenza unless they have had the exact same virus before and have built up sufficient specific antibodies or have received a prophylactic dose(s) of a proper antigen.

People can have increased resistance to a CoV if it is similar enough to one that they have been infected with before or if the strain is sufficiently "mild".

I should also remind folks that the Chinese H5N1 "bird flu" had a mortality rate of between 50-70%

This WuFlu looks "tame" by comparison so far.

Disclaimer: I AM NOT AN EPIDEMIOLOGIST. I am a degreed biomedical engineer with a background in peripheral vascular access drug delivery and orthopedics.

But I also stayed at a Holiday Inn Express a few years ago.....

Try to stay safe and keep yourself isolated as much as possible Hudini. Looking forward to your reports of this thing abating soon.

[This message has been edited by randye (edited 02-04-2020).]

E.Furgal FEB 04, 06:34 AM

quote
Originally posted by randye:


Just STOP IT, will you?

Tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of people in Maryland and all around Baltimore get flu and pneumonia and other diseases EVERY YEAR.
Hundreds of those people die..............and NOBODY in their right mind blames Ft. Detrick.

The same goes for Koltosvo, in the Novosibirsk region of Siberia, Russia, and they had an explosion on the 5th floor of their main facility last September and NOBODY got sick and no epidemic was released.,,, and NOBODY with 2 brain cells to rub together, in Russia or anywhere else, blamed their flu on the laboratory.

Additionally, if anyone wants to create a bio-weapon they sure as hell are NOT going to create one with a miniscule 4-9% mortality rate.

Please STOP spreading bullshit.




Why you point out MD?
You don't live there.
Donny
MadMark FEB 04, 09:21 AM

quote
Originally posted by randye:


Nobody really has natural immunity to any CoV influenza unless they have had the exact same virus before and have built up sufficient specific antibodies or have received a prophylactic dose(s) of a proper antigen.

People can have increased resistance to a CoV if it is similar enough to one that they have been infected with before or if the strain is sufficiently "mild".

I should also remind folks that the Chinese H5N1 "bird flu" had a mortality rate of between 50-70%

This WuFlu looks "tame" by comparison so far.

Disclaimer: I AM NOT AN EPIDEMIOLOGIST. I am a degreed biomedical engineer with a background in peripheral vascular access drug delivery and orthopedics.

But I also stayed at a Holiday Inn Express a few years ago.....

Try to stay safe and keep yourself isolated as much as possible Hudini. Looking forward to your reports of this thing abating soon.




The mortality rate is not the only thing that affects the number of deaths. If something is extremely deadly, like over 50% of the people that catch it die, but they get it and right away are so sick that they cannot do anything then they don't spread it around as much. With this Flue (I am going to start calling it the Wu Flue) is only 5 to 10% mortality, but it takes a week or two to develop symptoms and you can spread it before you even know you have it, it can cause many more deaths because it affects more people. And that is where the Wu Flue seems to be right now.

Just for you information too. H5N1 has shown up in China just this week too. But, I think it has only been seen in birds so far.

Just so you know, I stayed at a Motel 6 the last time.

BTW, your information at the start is very good info. If I remember correctly in 1917 with the Spanish Flue, there had been some kind of mild cases of that virus that happened before the major world wide outbreak 1917/1918, therefore some people had some immunity to it.