Been busy with my farm stuff, plus had a major malfunction with 1 of my shop overhead door springs. It went
and scared the crap out of me about the time I got the door 1/2 way up...had to replace both springs. Been fishing some and cutting up some fallen limbs and a tree that had fallen, got hung in another tree then finally fell accross my pond dam. (YAYY!!)
Updates May 5: 24,798 new cases and 2,350 new deaths in the United States.
134,475 deaths by August 4 (total cumulative count, with uncertainty range from 95,092 to 242,890 deaths) now projected in the USA by Dr. Murray and researchers in Washington state in the COVID-19 forecasting model by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) used by the US Government. [view here] The initial model, released on March 26 and online until the beginning of May, was projecting 81,766 deaths by the same date (with uncertainty range from 49,431 to 136,401) [view archived page] More information on the update and the new forecasting model implemented on May 4 are explained here The institute wrote that the revisions reflected “rising mobility in most U.S. states as well as the easing of social distancing measures expected in 31 states by May 11, indicating that growing contacts among people will promote transmission of the coronavirus” [source]
Regents Professor Michael T. Osterholm, PhD, is the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.
As a guest on the Monday night edition of "The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell", Dr. Osterholm reminds prospective SARS-CoV-2 virus replication centers nationwide--that's you and me and everyone else in this nation--that "It's not how fast you test, it's how you test fast."
Either of these Internet page links provides this brief video content:
Santa Clara County surrounds the city of San Jose and includes a large swath of California's "Silicon Valley." There are almost 2 million residents. Santa Clara County Health Officer Dr. Sara Cody was among the first in the nation to push for "stay at home" or "shelter in place" interpretations of "social distancing" as a response to the strains of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that started to be detected in the United States during 1Q 2020.
I just stumbled upon this in the San Jose Mercury News online.
Stanford University researchers have moderated their controversial estimate of how many people in Santa Clara County were infected by the COVID-19 virus by early April — but stand by their conclusion that the illness was much more widespread than anyone knew.
In a revised analysis of a startling study published last month, they now estimate that 2.8% of Santa Clara residents were previously infected by the virus but didn’t know it.
That implies that the county had up to 54,000 infections — many more than the 1,000 confirmed cases in the county [that were being reported] at the time.
If true, it means that the large majority of people [in Santa Clara County] who contracted COVID-19 [were infected with the virus] in the early days of the pandemic have recovered without ever knowing they were infected. With so many undetected infections, it also means that the death rate is lower than presumed.
The team’s initial study was slightly higher, placing the estimate of infected residents between 2.5% to 4.15%, which suggested up to 81,000 infections.
That study, the first of its type in the nation, incited a fierce debate over the paper’s methodology, with statisticians taking to Twitter to debate sampling methods and test reliability.
That's part of a longer report.
"Coronavirus: Revised Stanford estimate says Santa Clara County had 54 times more cases than we knew about"
After criticism, the researchers corrected some of the statistical imperfections with new data and analyses
Two comments about that table of mortality numbers:
First, it would appear to be comparing the entire 24 months of 2017 and 2018 to just the most recent two or two and a half months since Covid-19 deaths were being recorded here in the U.S. in any numbers.
And second, the Covid-19 deaths have been during a time of statewide lockdowns to various degrees. The social distancing and "stay at home" or "shelter in place" declarations that have been in effect, across or within various states that altogether, add up to most of the people in this country.
The deaths from influenza and pneumonia that are side by side in that table were not affected by any social distancing (that I'm aware of.)
[This message has been edited by rinselberg (edited 05-12-2020).]
Roger that. And when I brought up these SARS-CoV-2 statewide and municipal lockdowns and social distancing, I want to highlight the difference in air travel.
I am not about to look up the numbers at this minute, but aren't we talking about passenger air travel and numbers of flights that are just 10 percent, compared to 2017 and 2018? International and within the United States?
I think that is likely HUGE in terms of how the disease experts are looking at the SARS-CoV-2 statistics, as far as infections, hospitalizations and deaths.
There's no basis for comparison with those numbers.
"It's not how fast you test, it's how you test fast."
[This message has been edited by rinselberg (edited 05-17-2020).]
Putting a thumb on the scales: Seasonal influenza deaths being overestimated and Covid-19 deaths, underestimated.
In a report published Thursday in the Journal of the American Medicine Association, Drs. Carlos del Rio and Jeremy Faust suggested that people were incorrectly using the flu-to-coronavirus comparison to downplay the severity and deadliness of COVID-19. . . .
You will never get the conspiracy theorists/deniers to understand or accept any of that Rinselberg.
Months back, I posted a quote from CDC that very plainly explained what the links you posted coroborated, and in fact, CDC stated that in any given year, there are relatively few mortality reports that said the deceased actually died form the flu. Most simply say 'respiratory failure from flu like illness' and up to a year later, CDC extrapolates a number for total deaths, based not on deaths, but on the number of reported flu cases.
I do very much hope this all fades and the virus becomes a minor problem and this thread equally fades into obscurity.
My initial interest in the virus and reason for starting the thread is stems from my long held interest in Asia and the fact that China did go public with the virus, albeit late and not entirely transparently. For China to even tell/admit to the world that they have an internal problem is a rare occurrence. I very much suspected then, that this was more than 'just a flu'.
"Shutdowns prevented 60 million coronavirus infections in the U.S., study finds"
Shutdown orders prevented about 60 million novel coronavirus infections in the United States and 285 million in China, according to a research study published Monday that examined how stay-at-home orders and other restrictions limited the spread of the contagion.
A separate study from epidemiologists at Imperial College London estimated the shutdowns saved about 3.1 million lives in 11 European countries, including 500,000 in the United Kingdom, and dropped infection rates by an average of 82 percent, sufficient to drive the contagion well below epidemic levels.
The two reports, published simultaneously Monday in the journal Nature, used completely different methods to reach similar conclusions. They suggest that the aggressive and unprecedented shutdowns, which caused massive economic disruptions and job losses, were effective at halting the exponential spread of the novel coronavirus.
The first of the two reports described in the Washington Post has been accepted for publication in the professional science journal Nature. Odds are, you neither especially like or dislike "Nature." https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2404-8
MSNBC's Rachel Maddow interviewed one of the authors and researchers, This is YouTube video content. It's two brief video segments. You don't like Rachel Maddow, but you're usually a sucker for online video content, if it's brief. https://youtu.be/1uxjmsyU2NE https://youtu.be/xITuamBe3KU