The Lewis Turning Point is an economic theory involving the point at which a demographic (usually a nation's workforce) reaches the point in which the supply of surplus labor from rural areas, for employment in cities, is exhausted. Much is currently being postulated regarding when China reaches that point (some say it already has) but my specific question is: When did (or will) the US breach it's own Lewis Turning Point?
The Lewis Turning Point is an economic theory involving the point at which a demographic (usually a nation's workforce) reaches the point in which the supply of surplus labor from rural areas, for employment in cities, is exhausted. Much is currently being postulated regarding when China reaches that point (some say it already has) but my specific question is: When did (or will) the US breach it's own Lewis Turning Point?
I would tease what the term "exhausted" fully means... as in, there are not enough people available, or... not enough "willing" people. Interesting theory, I'd never heard of it but glad you mentioned it.
We're obviously in a situation right now. Here in Tampa where I live, it's the #1 / #2 place for people to move to from all over the country (depending on which website you look at). Prices for homes are just absolutely insane. My house alone has already gone up over $110k, and I've not even been here more than 8 months.
But one of the things I've seen... restaurants are going out of business, everywhere. It's not because they can't get any business... but they can't get anyone to work. Dozens and dozens of restaurants, same thing... can't find anyone to work. Just the other day, there was a restaurant with outdoor seating... it's packed every single night that I drive by it... completely packed with people standing outside waiting to get in. This is right outside a quiet neighborhood, and it's not small either. The size of a large Applebees. They had help wanted signs all over. Finally one day, closed for good. Didn't even bring in the furniture...it's all still sitting out there. There are at least 8 other restaurants nearby, same thing.
The question I have though, is WHY can't they get anyone to work? There are more people living here? Maybe the people who worked sold their homes, cashed out, and moved away? At first I thought it was because the Biden administration was paying people to stay home... but everyone tells me those payments are finished. So... I have no answers. I know a lot of people supposedly died from COVID, but that was mostly older people, and those with co-morbidness as they say. So, I don't get it.
A lot of people have learned they can make the same or more in the gig economy, day trading, investing, temp work, buying-selling stuff.....whatever.
AND they don't have to put up with ANY of the B-S that comes along with "a job".
Personally, I think its just another facet of what the truckers are doing, and many have been doing all along. Quietly saying "screw you" to "the system"
Neither of those replys came close to answering the question. It has zero to do with the current labor situation in either Canada or the US. A specific year or decade.
The labor market is constantly changing. The "rural labor pool" to supply cities industry has shifted to "city work-from-homes" to supply rural communities with consumers.
When exactly it started ? When did automation and computerization start ? It's not a hard line, its a gradual shift.
Neither of those replys came close to answering the question. It has zero to do with the current labor situation in either Canada or the US. A specific year or decade.
Know the answer or do not.
Haha, MJ, please re-read... I wasn't answering. I was also asking a question, hoping maybe you had additional insight.
There is for China, there is for Guatemala, there is for India, there is for Great Britain, there is for most individual European countries...why would there not be for the US? (It's usually a specific decade)
The US aging population is part of the issue. People moving to Florida are cashing out of states with even higher house values, so they're banking money in the moves.
The removal of jobs is another issue. The coal industry in rural Appalachia being an example. What else are those people supposed to do to build an economy? Cut all the trees down to sell?
The USA is 30 trillion in debt with ever lowering manufacturing capabilities. China has millions upon millions upon 10s of millions of people to fulfill employment needs.
Their gov is fostering Chinese people to reproduce because they're aging and woman are not marrying. You'll never see that from our US chit government. They hate us, the ethnic founding stock's progeny.
US gov now is providing free crack smoking kits, for a reason. The illegals trafficking cheap drugs from Mexico is another facet of the modern day Opium addiction like that of the Sassoon family which was spoon fed to the Chinese.
They're creating another Weimar Republic in the USA in order to bleed us of as much wealth as possible.
The Lewis Turning Point is an economic theory involving the point at which a demographic (usually a nation's workforce) reaches the point in which the supply of surplus labor from rural areas, for employment in cities, is exhausted. Much is currently being postulated regarding when China reaches that point (some say it already has) but my specific question is: When did (or will) the US breach it's own Lewis Turning Point?
From a little searching, when a place hits that point, they think apparently the wages would go up? I'd guess because people who accept low wages arent there anymore for some reason.
I'm not sure how it could be measured in the US, as we artificially play with wages too much, we do bad things that affect inflation, etc. Combined with What 82-TA mentioned, (some people ...primarily perhaps who arent in rural areas.. dont want to work, and some are paid even when they don't) ...figuring out how that would affect it all sounds like trying to measure something that keeps changing shape. Also how does AI replacing workers figure into it?
Does "the great resignation" come into play? Here is a little about that:
[This message has been edited by 2.5 (edited 02-10-2022).]
The reason that people don't want to work is more important to consider. Because it exposes that the people aren't the problem. It's a symptom of what is wrong.
People won't work because they no longer believe in the mission. You don't get up to.a clock to rush to work to support a system you don't believe in anymore. It's similar to a failed marriage. We would divorce our government and seek another mate if we could.
The USA is a grotesque, perverted, addicted, soulless, non-gender specific, violent, abusive pos.
The USA is post Lewis. China is far from peaking. Only war or a plague will change that order.
From a little searching, when a place hits that point, they think apparently the wages would go up? I'd guess because people who accept low wages arent there anymore for some reason.
I'm not sure how it could be measured in the US, as we artificially play with wages too much, we do bad things that affect inflation, etc. Combined with What 82-TA mentioned, (some people ...primarily perhaps who arent in rural areas.. dont want to work, and some are paid even when they don't) ...figuring out how that would affect it all sounds like trying to measure something that keeps changing shape. Also how oes AI replacing workers figure into it?
Does "the great resignation" come into play? Here is a little about that:
Do you have to post a video in every thread you enter?
Do you just not have the capability to put things in your own words, from thoughts in your own brain?
Do I need to find a video to explain the statement for you that I previously posted?? "It has zero to do with the current labor situation in either Canada or the US.
And also related to post war reconstruction in WWII destroyed nations. The bubble created by loss of manufacturing competition in those countries.
On blush I'd buy that the US passed it by time that the Boomers just passed the mid way point of their working years. Reproduction was down at the same time, largely through birth control.
I don't have enough historical economic education to look at 1860s reconstruction but would think we were still on the beginning of the increase then.
And also related to post war reconstruction in WWII destroyed nations. The bubble created by loss of manufacturing competition in those countries.
On blush I'd buy that the US passed it by time that the Boomers just passed the mid way point of their working years. Reproduction was down at the same time, largely through birth control.
I don't have enough historical economic education to look at 1860s reconstruction but would think we were still on the beginning of the increase then.
Yes, post civil war we were just entering a new industrial age, but we still had a very significant rural population that was making a living in agriculture. I am guessing, it happened certainly post ww2 but prior to the 70s recession and most certainly before the 2008 meltdown. Millions of soldiers exited the US Armed forces after WW2 and didn't return "to the farm' but it had already begun before then to some extent. "How ya gonna keep 'em down on the farm after they've seen the farm". There were, in the late 40s/early 50s, much better and easier ways to make more $$ than working in ag.
The US, for the most part, is a Service oriented economy and we have been for some time. Historically, that transition makes up about 50% of the turning point. (Domestic agriculture and mining are not considered a Service because both are producing a commercially viable domestic use/exportable product) 2.5: Not a riddle. A question. I rarely ask a question for no reason. I asked, because I do not know the answer specifically but I do know it is, among economists, all but taboo to even talk about (the US turning point) but there are huge data points, studies, papers and discussions involving the time period (past and future) that other nations will (or already have) seen it.
I find it more than a little curious why so much effort is being directed at China, India, South and Central America's LTP but virtually nothing written or talked about our own.
Much is being postulated that once China reaches it's LTP, (assuming it hasn't already) that their gangbusters economy will take a huge hit, but if the US and China are currently #1 & #2 in economics globally, and the US reached their LTP decades ago, then just how much of a global hit would China be expected to get?
We can't very well know that until/unless we have some historical reference to compare it to and the most direct comparison would be our own turning point.
And also related to post war reconstruction in WWII destroyed nations. The bubble created by loss of manufacturing competition in those countries.
On blush I'd buy that the US passed it by time that the Boomers just passed the mid way point of their working years. Reproduction was down at the same time, largely through birth control.
When a nation is 1 of only a very few nations not destroyed, and that country's resources are used to re-build the rest, the added economic impact is huge. It's often been noted, that our own economy began to decline and shift once the rest of the world (Europe, then Japan, then other parts of Asia) caught back up. That would have been in the 70s but the worm had already been truning IMO. (In today's dollars, we also had a $2.8 trillion debt at the end of WW2)
I find it more than a little curious why so much effort is being directed at China, India, South and Central America's LTP but virtually nothing written or talked about our own.
Distraction perhaps. I mean while we borrow ourselves into a grave.
Do you have to post a video in every thread you enter?
Do you just not have the capability to put things in your own words, from thoughts in your own brain?
Do I need to find a video to explain the statement for you that I previously posted?? "It has zero to do with the current labor situation in either Canada or the US.
-I could
-As I mentioned before, I work. Its easier for me to click twice than type 10k words.
except more often than not, it takes 20 minutes or more to watch in a video what could be said in a few paragraphs or a few lines. Your only concern is you. Period.
If you have a point to make, make it. I'm not much on relying on other people in some video to make my point for me. Any 5th grader can do that and it would be abject laziness on my part.
except more often than not, it takes 20 minutes or more to watch in a video what could be said in a few paragraphs or a few lines. Your only concern is you. Period.
If you have a point to make, make it. I'm not much on relying on other people in some video to make my point for me. Any 5th grader can do that and it would be abject laziness on my part.
I stated my reason. You have lots of opinions , as do we all. Period.
If you had posted a vid (or even said) what your point was in the opening post of this thread I still wouldnt be waiting for the end of the riddle, or question with known details left out on purpose. Its all perspective.
If like you said, that video was about something you already stated didnt matter to your outcome...you had really no reason to worry about it.
Its all perspective. There are probably some other people who can click play and keep working and get alot of good info besides me. If they all cant well, its unfortunate that it is so hard for them to get my point. If one cared alot they could just click and look out the window and sip coffee while they listen. Some folks enjoy that. You'd rather read, as if there is somehow more intelligence in a typed letter, thats your choice.
[This message has been edited by 2.5 (edited 02-10-2022).]
My answer is the mid point of the Boomer's 30 year working career. Which I viewed as the early to mid 80s when most women had moved into the work place.
We had already begun our transit to a Service based economy in the late 60s. US manufacturing peaked in the late 70s, (according to Dept of Labor 1979) and Service segment accelerated again after the recessions of the 80s. So we certainly should have reached Lewis a good bit prior to the 1990s tech boom, which itself was service segment.
Urbanization is the primary measure of LTP. The move from rural to citiy life. Once the transition from agragrian and rural life to urbanization has peaked, we've reached LTP. From what I can tell, that began in earnest much earlier than 50 years ago. The late 1800s thru 1930 showed a large sudden movement to urban areas but the slower larger movement took a lot longer.
Maybe I have too simplistic view but I see the current labor shortage due to lack of immigration. I think the peak rural to urban labor shift occured years ago for the US but in the past several decades we have been able to supplement these low wage service jobs with immigrants (legal and moreso illegal).
The plandemic has really slowed the influx of working age immigrants(from areas other than the southern boarder.
The US, for the most part, is a Service oriented economy and we have been for some time. Historically, that transition makes up about 50% of the turning point. (Domestic agriculture and mining are not considered a Service because both are producing a commercially viable domestic use/exportable product)
They certainly are... but define "service." I know you don't JUST mean McDonalds, Stanley Steamer, etc... but the United States is also HEAVY in research and development. You could say we have an R&D economy as well.
Up until a few years ago, the United States was the global leader in R&D. Now, I am not a PhD myself, but I work with more technical PhDs than not. One of the things about being a PhD is that you are expected to write research paper, and consistently be apart of research and innovation in your field. That's one of the primary reasons why people get PhDs. Right or wrong, you gain "value" by publishing research papers. I want you to look at this chart:
China has surpassed us.
Now, there's a little secret here... a large number of the papers published by China and India are actually garbage. I don't say that as some kind of faux American pride, but I know factually that many PhD candidates and graduates write and publish papers, and peer review them, for things that are basically bogus, and scientifically wrong. China does this, and India does this. China does this collectively because it was a GOAL of theirs to beat the United States in published studies. For India, it was more individually personal, and not part of some collective goal or anything like that.
Never the less, the United States still leads in actual innovation and development. Espionage is significant with China, just as it was with Russia back in the day.
While we may be a "service" economy, and that includes things like SaaS and other technical services as well as self-serving services, the reality is that this money isn't just coming from no where, it comes from the innovations and technology that we develop.
A lot of people have this belief that China will somehow collapse soon, as did the USSR... but I do not believe this. I'm not an economist, but China's economy is dramatically different from that of the old USSR. China's economy is booming, and their infrastructure is new. They also still have as many poor people living out in the sticks as we have a total population. I don't believe for a second that China will collapse.
I don't think the future looks good, where America continues to be the world power... and it kills me to say that.
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Originally posted by maryjane: A question. I rarely ask a question for no reason. I asked, because I do not know the answer specifically but I do know it is, among economists, all but taboo to even talk about (the US turning point) but there are huge data points, studies, papers and discussions involving the time period (past and future) that other nations will (or already have) seen it.
You've come to the right place!!!
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Originally posted by maryjane: I find it more than a little curious why so much effort is being directed at China, India, South and Central America's LTP but virtually nothing written or talked about our own.
Much is being postulated that once China reaches it's LTP, (assuming it hasn't already) that their gangbusters economy will take a huge hit, but if the US and China are currently #1 & #2 in economics globally, and the US reached their LTP decades ago, then just how much of a global hit would China be expected to get?
I suspect you'll snap at me and say what I said above has nothing to do with what you are talking about, but I disagree... I think it does.
A lot of people have this belief that China will somehow collapse soon, as did the USSR... but I do not believe this. I'm not an economist, but China's economy is dramatically different from that of the old USSR. China's economy is booming, and their infrastructure is new. They also still have as many poor people living out in the sticks as we have a total population. I don't believe for a second that China will collapse.
I don't think they will either, any more than we did when we (and other developed nations) reached LTP. It's not just their economy that is different from USSR. Their central govt and central finance system is different, much much different. So, is the Asian (specifically but not only the Chinese) culture. People believe their #1 asset is their 1 billion population. It isn't. It's their patience. We look a few years down the road. They look decades. We look a decade ahead. They are looking a century. It took the Mongols (Khan dynasties) nearly 2 centuries to unite China. They are used to playing the long game. They certainly are not hesitant to 'seize the moment' but they are equally at ease waiting for the exact precise decade too.
[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 02-11-2022).]
I don't think they will either, any more than we did when we (and other developed nations) reached LTP. It's not just their economy that is different from USSR. Their central govt and central finance system is different, much much different. So, is the Asian (specifically but not only the Chinese) culture. People believe their #1 asset is their 1 billion population. It isn't. It's their patience. We look a few years down the road. They look decades. We look a decade ahead. They are looking a century. It took the Mongols (Khan dynasties) nearly 2 centuries to unite China. They are used to playing the long game. They certainly are not hesitant to 'seize the moment' but they are equally at ease waiting for the exact precise decade too.
I agree... I also think we as a society "used to" think long-term. I can't say when that stopped... but nearly everything we do is reactionary. It doesn't seem like anything we do anymore is long-term... maybe the 80s / 90s?
I keep hearing all these economists say that China will collapse soon, but I almost think they do it so we stop worrying about China.
Aging demographics will cause a much more serious issue than the Lewis Turning Point.
China and most of all Asia, especially Japan have much older people than younger people to replace them. They will go in population decline.
Europe is especially bad.
Only a few areas of the world have a decent demography. India being one of them, so look for India to be a big world stage player this century.
North America has it to an extent, because of Mexico. A few South American countries and Africa is in good demography shape.
The UN says half the planet's population will be Africans in 75 years.
Pretty sure Japan has had negative population growth for several years now.
I don't know that I'd call Africa good in population demographic terms. Speaking in clinical terms, Africa is heading off a cliff and will strain the world with it's population boom. They can't feed what they have now. The West has probably poured trillions into Africa. The medicine and charity we've poured into the continent has resulted in the overpopulation and dependence. Now China is moving in to prospect it.
Aging demographics will cause a much more serious issue than the Lewis Turning Point.
China and most of all Asia, especially Japan have much older people than younger people to replace them. They will go in population decline.
Europe is especially bad.
Only a few areas of the world have a decent demography. India being one of them, so look for India to be a big world stage player this century.
North America has it to an extent, because of Mexico. A few South American countries and Africa is in good demography shape.
This, if it includes (and should) the very young (that require support but are not old enough to add to productivity) is called the Total Dependency Ratio. It's made up of the elderly and the young.
I condensed this down from a very large spreadsheet to contain just a few nations. Included a couple of other nations and the US for contrast. ( the whole thing would never fit in a post so I excluded things like country codes, notes, group type region etc and put it in 2 columns instead of one long wide column)
China has in the past, had a much higher TDR than currently and their TDR has been in decline, most likely due to their past 2 child policy on # of children/household which has now (as of May 2021) been changed to 3 children/ couple. TDR can be negatively affected by both a large number of elderly and a large number of children. The whole thing can be found at https://population.un.org/w...Standard/Population/ Scroll down to Total Dependency Ratio1.
Originally posted by maryjane: The Lewis Turning Point is an economic theory involving the point at which a demographic (usually a nation's workforce) reaches the point in which the supply of surplus labor from rural areas, for employment in cities, is exhausted.
Interesting. I would have to know more about the Lewis Turning Point.
I grew up in big cities till my later 20's. Then I moved to rural America / Texas. Employment in cities was not one of my reasons. I know some in my area who do though.
"Surplus labor" kinda needs a definition. A country boy can survive. Most have work and do work. Yeah, we have those that are not motivated. I wouldn't call them surplus labor. The cities have them in greater numbers.
The ones who can and do, can be bought. The cities don't want to pay the price. Heh, if they did, they might even entice their existing non working population to work.
Originally posted by maryjane: When did (or will) the US breach it's own Lewis Turning Point?
When did mechanization come to farms? I'm not exactly sure, you'd have a better picture than a guy from New Jersey. The "surplus labor from rural areas" dried up within a generation, I'd think.
Exact date? I can't find a good source ( my Google-Fu is weak) but maybe 1950?
'Mechanization' came to farms with the invention of the mechanical reaper/harvester and increased thru the 1920s. The real upswing in mechanization tho, was immediately post world war 2, courtesy of 2 models of inexpensive tractors. 1947-1955 they sold an unbelievable # of units each and changed forever the way farming was done in the USA. Over 500,000 of Ford's N seres were sold in the US between 1947 and 1950, with Ferguson not far behind. The Ford 9n, which came out just before the start of the war, sold for $600 new. A good pair of harness plow mules cost $200.
Farmall M right behind with 200,000 built between late 40s and 1950. The John Deere A & G 'poppin Johnny' tractors sold well over 200,000 units the same time period.
