Bought my 86 V6 in 2010, replaced the cat in 2012 and have passed each time from 2012, 14, 16, 18 on 1st try. My numbers were near zero from 2012-14, then started creeping up a bit. Still low though.
The Fiero is simple compared to modern cars, and I don't think it's too hard to keep it in condition to pass. Daily driving might make it easier, actually, because it won't be living the yo-yo lifestyle of sometimes driven, sometimes parked.
My understanding is that the pass/fail thresholds are calibrated so that a certain % of cars of each model will fail each year. I don't know how many % they want to fail though.
If you take the "2 speed idle" test (rural areas), then the thresholds are generic for all cars of the same model year. In that case, I think the V6 Fiero is actually better off, because it's MPFI system gives it an advantage against many cars of same model years.
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And now I'll start rambling about what to expect with California emissions on a Fiero, just in case it's of use to anyone

I think a couple common problems for Fiero emissions are the EGR solenoid and surging idle.
If your address requires you to take the "enhanced" test, then it will be tested while rolling, which means N2O emissions are measured and your EGR system will probably need to work to pass that. But you don't have to worry about a surging idle, since it's not being tested at idle.
If you take the "2 speed idle" test, then you have to worry about surging idle, but EGR is more forgiving.
My experience is with the "2 speed idle" test, which is used for cars registered in rural areas. It depends where you *live*, not where you go to get tested. The renewal notice says what test you'll get.
The "2 speed idle" test measures emissions at idle and with engine revved (I think 2500rpm). 30secs at each RPM.
This test doesn't measure N2O. However, you still can't have a check engine light on, including the EGR code (32?) or it will fail due to the light (
**). Also, they will manually open the EGR valve by hand to confirm that it's actually letting exhaust into the intake when opened. When you open that valve the engine should stumble.
So the EGR valve itself needs to work, and you can't have a check engine light, but they can't feasibly test the function of the solenoid that controls it. Solenoid needs to be there and properly connected - it's on the emissions system diagram under the decklid and they always check everything against that diagram. Look at that diagram, follow your vacuum hoses and do your own pre-inspection before taking it in.
** = There are workarounds to stop code 32 from popping up, but they aren't going to make the EGR work any better, so they won't help if you fail on measured N2O emissions.
Surging idle caused me trouble on this test (until finding a workaround and later a real fix). During the 30sec test, if the idle goes over a prescribed limit, then the test fails. The tailpipe test is automated, the inspector doesn't control it.
There is a chart somewhere on the CA BAR or CARB sites that lists the idle speed limit per model year. I think for 1986 the limit was 1100rpm. The inspector told me it was 1000rpm, but I think he was mistaken. I've been keeping my emissions tune below 1000 though just in case. I suspect it might be slightly advantageous to have a faster idle, because the Fiero's slow ECM and it's clunky idle probably gets the fuel pulses a little more accurate at higher RPMs. That's just my theory though.
Ignition base timing (as set at the distributor) is also checked, has to be within +/- 3 degrees of spec as written on the emissions label.
It is possible to tweak the timing if you do it on a chip, but not with the distributor. I guess you can play within the 3 degree tolerance, but the inspector might not read it exactly the same as you do so that's a gamble.
They do not plug into the ECM on OBD-1 vehicles. They will turn on the key, expect to see a working check engine light, then start the car, expect that light to go out and stay out.
After checking for codes, the only other interaction they have with the ECM is when they jumper the A-B terminals to disable the ECM's timing advance and check the base timing.
(That step is the only reason I think 7730 ECM swaps could be problematic. Otherwise we ought to be able to slip that through - and have cleaner emissions and better mileage... but this is CA and they want everything bone stock.)
The CARB emissions test procedures are available for download on the internet. It's worth reading them to know what the inspector will be doing during the test.
The tailpipe test is objective and straightforward, but the visual part of the inspection can have a lot of subjectivity.
Nowadays, emissions test stations are being targeted with "undercover cars" - cars sent out by the state which are illegally modified in some way (sometimes very subtle, and technically the state is violating the law here). Those cars visit a bunch of stations, and every station that passes it gets a huge fine. Those fines are publicly posted and what I've seen have typically been in the range of about $2000. They can also get their license suspended.
From what I understand, they also have a scoring system now. If a shop passes a legitimate car which then fails on a later test (2 years later!) - the shop which previously passed it gets penalized. This implies they have an incentive to pre-emptively fail you now, instead of waiting for you to possibly fail at somebody else's shop 2 years later.
So you can see how the inspection shops would be paranoid at this point.
There have been reports of some bonehead inspectors who think the V6's throttle body is an illegal aftermarket part just because it says "Holley" on it. In the absence of evidence, they guess it's a mod and presume guilty. I've not yet seen any official-looking documentation you can show them to prove that it's the original part. Only recourse is to find another shop.
Look up the "CARB Executive Order" number on your catalyst, and print it out. You shouldn't need to show them this, but might as well have it.
When you buy a new CA catalyst, look it up and make sure it has a valid EO. Look at the date code on the catalyst - sometimes the EO's expire and any cat outside the allowed date range will not be considered valid. Make sure it's all kosher and if it's not, return it.
My catalyst for example apparently expired in 2014, probably because the manufacturer stopped paying the state bribe on that model. Mine predates the expiration date, so it's still legal. But if I bought the same model today, and it's date code was too new, then it would fail visual inspection, regardless of how well it worked.
I'm curious what the rule is about non-CA cars. Back in the early 2000s, I passed emissions a few times with an imported 49-state car which had a replacement 49-state cat on it. Maybe the rules have changed, or maybe they just didn't check back then. Are 49-state cars exempt from requiring a CA cat?
Because of the subjectivity of visual inspection, I think it can help to try to make a good impression and avoid your car being a nuisance to inspect:
1) Present yourself and your car reasonably well. Don't let the car look like it is wanting for TLC. Avoid junky looking fixes like tape, etc. They'll be expecting and looking for a reason to fail it.
2) Do your own pre-inspection. Check the emissions label, hoses all connected as shown. Check timing. Don't bring in a car that has obvious problems, it just feeds prejudice next time you come in.
3) Remove the engine vents so they don't have to.
4) Remove the cover over the ALDL port so they don't have to.
5) A couple times I've left a sheet in the trunk showing how to read the timing marks, but I have no idea if they actually look at this or trust it.
When you find a shop that you like, keep going there. The Fiero is an uncommon car nowadays so they might remember you. A loyal relationship can't hurt.