I am surprised there had not been a thread on either of these yet. They both have been lingering all week. Finally both are named. (Well Bill will the next official update).
Originally posted by CoryFiero: I am surprised there had not been a thread on either of these yet.
What for ? I am surprised that there has not been a thread on no hurricanes so far. Ana, Bill, Cliffw, a storm is a storm. It's beer thirty somewhere in the world right now. There really is nothing to say about them right now.
What for ? I am surprised that there has not been a thread on no hurricanes so far. Ana, Bill, Cliffw, a storm is a storm. It's beer thirty somewhere in the world right now. There really is nothing to say about them right now.
lol. Last year it seems I read many discussions on possible hurricanes. RyanHess I think always started the posts.
Maybe we shouldn't talk about them until they are here.
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04:55 PM
cliffw Member
Posts: 37848 From: Bandera, Texas, USA Registered: Jun 2003
Originally posted by CoryFiero: Last year it seems I read many discussions on possible hurricanes.
Yeah, we hear that year to year. Ryan is relatively new to Florida. Not that I remember him starting hurricane posts often. He did add intelligent feedback. I am a blessed man. I do not worry. What happens is gonna happen anyway. Yes, it is good to be concerned and prepared but, Ana is still in puberty, .
One thing with the hurricanes, you have lots of notice that one is in the way. Just where they are going is another thing. Looking out ten days, the track seems to be south of or south Florida. Sorry Clem..
I thought the same thing, Chuck. Although I would rather that Pres. Clinton was getting some strange then to have the eastern seaboard get walloped by hurricanes. But either way, no real surprise.
What for ? I am surprised that there has not been a thread on no hurricanes so far. Ana, Bill, Cliffw, a storm is a storm. It's beer thirty somewhere in the world right now. There really is nothing to say about them right now.
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Originally posted by cliffw:
Yeah, we hear that year to year. Ryan is relatively new to Florida. Not that I remember him starting hurricane posts often. He did add intelligent feedback. I am a blessed man. I do not worry. What happens is gonna happen anyway. Yes, it is good to be concerned and prepared but, Ana is still in puberty, .
That's because you are way out of the envelope of possible harm. There is and has, for the last week, a LOT being said about them around here, with Hurricanes Ike and Rita still fresh on the minds of everyone. It's easy enough, to pack your clothes and vital papers, your kids and a few mementos, and evacuate, but there's a lot more at stake than just staying alive. On the Bolivar Pennisula alone, there are probably 1000+ head of cattle in pasturage--you don't move 1000 head of livestock in a day or 2 time limit. People on the Gulf Coast realize, it takes a good amt of time to pack their belongings, and many will actually move the majority of their furniture and appliances out of coastal area homes. Once bit--twice shy. There are still hundreds of pieces of heavy construction equipment on the Texas coast being used to rebuild infrastructure--it all has to come out, along with thousands of personal vehicles. (There is an estimated 300- 500 vehicles at the bottom of East Galveston bay from Hurricane Ike already)
On every single construction site on the peninsula and Galveston Island, there is at least one PortaPotty. It would not surprise me to learn there are several thousand of them, and each one is a missile, waiting to be flung by wind and waves against the pilings of homes, or against the walls of non-elevated homes. This, is where the destruction comes in--not from the wind and wave action themselves, but from the debris nearest the water, that is hammering away at the structres further inland a few hundred yards.
I wouldn't discount Ryan Hess's understanding of hurricane tracking models. He has a pretty good handle on them and is eager to share that understanding. Tracking models are just that--a model--a possibility versus probability track, with as many as 10-12 different models projected at any given time.
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THE TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE... SHOWING A QUICK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FIRST 3 OR 4 DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BEYOND THAT TIME THERE IS A SPLIT IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE...WITH THE ECMWF AND HWRF SHOWING A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...WHILE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOW A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED TOWARD THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAY 5 AND SHOWS A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
As you can see from the quote, there is considerable disparity in the tracking models of just those 4 underlined models, and there are many other models out there, not mentioned in this NHC Advisory #18. Some models suggest a continued westerly track, some suggest a northern turn toward the NW. Currently, Ana is following the early track of Hurrican Ike.
Today's model of Ana:
[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 08-16-2009).]
Originally posted by cliffw: Ana, Bill, Cliffw, a storm is a storm. It's beer thirty somewhere in the world right now. There really is nothing to say about them right now I am a blessed man. I do not worry. What happens is gonna happen anyway. Yes, it is good to be concerned and prepared but, Ana is still in puberty, .
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Originally posted by maryjane: That's because you are way out of the envelope of possible harm. There is and has, for the last week, a LOT being said about them around here, with Hurricanes Ike and Rita still fresh on the minds of everyone. It's easy enough, to pack your clothes and vital papers, your kids and a few mementos, and evacuate, but there's a lot more at stake than just staying alive. On the Bolivar Pennisula alone, there are probably 1000+ head of cattle in pasturage--you don't move 1000 head of livestock in a day or 2 time limit. People on the Gulf Coast realize, it takes a good amt of time to pack their belongings, and many will actually move the majority of their furniture and appliances out of coastal area homes. Once bit--twice shy. There are still hundreds of pieces of heavy construction equipment on the Texas coast being used to rebuild infrastructure--it all has to come out, along with thousands of personal vehicles. (There is an estimated 300- 500 vehicles at the bottom of East Galveston bay from Hurricane Ike already)
True, I am out of harms way. Naturally lending to be being worry free. Yet I don't believe that is why I do not worry. My lake place has a tendency to flood. My dad has lived there since 1973. Since I have had my place (1993) we have had a 100 year flood and a 500 year flood. The 100 year flood had the lake go from empty to flooded in three days (ironically due to a hurricane aftermath which parked itself over our recharge zone). I have seen cars from the local dearlership parked twenty or so feet up in Cypress trees. Some friends and other neighbors I have know for years have been wiped out multiple times. They see it as an expense of living where they do. My Mom lives in Corpus, at one time on Padre Island. As much as I try to get her to move, she does not worry either. Not to say there is nothing to think about. True that moving that many cattle and even the extra construction equipment would be problematic. Again a cost of working in a prone area. Worrying is an added burden which is useless. I have pitched in for free to help people move out of harms way and to help clean/rebuild. I often wonder why someone would want to live in harms way. The tactical location (which I picked knowing of flooding possibilities) of my lake place has kept me safe/secure. The ones I know in harms way have evacuation plans down to a drill. Any in a hurricane zone should have contingency plans and be willing to lose all left behind. My earlier posts just reflected that belief and that it is really too early (for the average joe) to get too worked up and that what is gonna happen is gonna happen. I will concede that those who feel the need to move all their furniture and appliances out with them would be the ones who would worry. Worry if they left it and worry if they took it for a false alarm.
How many millions of people were trying to leave your lake area at the exact same time-- during either the 100 or 500 yr flood? That's what i thought.
Your comparison is no comparison at all. I saw more people and more vehicles on one highway (US90) between China Texas, and Dayton Texas in a 4 hr time period than live on your whole lake. One small stretch of one small highway. I-10 and the other major roads were 10 times worse.
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05:15 PM
Cheever3000 Member
Posts: 12400 From: The Man from Tallahassee Registered: Aug 2001
Originally posted by maryjane: Your comparison is no comparison at all.
Not meant to be. I was caught up in Rita evacuation traffic, having to come from near Sugarland to get home. I think a four and a half hour drive took me fourteen hours. Would have been longer but I did not follow the govt approved evacuation route. jscott also got caught up in it and it took him twenty four hours. Pathetic. However, would I live in Sugarland, Corpus, New Orleans, it would be the accepted cost of living there. I still would not worry and I surely would not complain.
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05:28 PM
partfiero Member
Posts: 6923 From: Tucson, Arizona Registered: Jan 2002
Yup, for Ana it looks like it could slip into the gulf, but I don't think it will get very large.
Bill is much more scary. Maybe a Cat 2 or more going towards FLA or East Coast. This is the one to keep an eye on.
That's Hurricane Bill to you. 23 minutes ago.
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Baltimore SunBill upgraded to hurricane, Claudette makes landfall CNN - ‎23 minutes ago‎ (CNN) -- Bill became the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic season as it continued to gain strength but remained far from any shore Monday morning
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06:05 AM
Blacktree Member
Posts: 20770 From: Central Florida Registered: Dec 2001
Ana just went over our heads here in PR earlier this morning. Lots of rumbling noise and rain but that was about it. We fly out on Friday to go and see one of the kids in AZ so hopefully Bill won't mess up our flight plans.
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01:12 PM
Aug 18th, 2009
ryan.hess Member
Posts: 20784 From: Orlando, FL Registered: Dec 2002
Any input on the storms this season? It looks like Bill will miss the U.S.. I might check out the surf this weekend, I heard we should get some good waves.
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04:27 PM
Blacktree Member
Posts: 20770 From: Central Florida Registered: Dec 2001
The feeder bands of former TS Claudette have been dumping rain on Central Florida all day. No real wind, just lots and lots of rain... and the incessant rumbling of thunder. Looks like the remnants of Ana will be passing by to dump on us tomorrow. Cross your fingers and hope we don't get flooded out.
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05:26 PM
ryan.hess Member
Posts: 20784 From: Orlando, FL Registered: Dec 2002
Any input on the storms this season? It looks like Bill will miss the U.S.. I might check out the surf this weekend, I heard we should get some good waves.
Bill - TCHP isn't there, and SSTs are marginally favorable for intensification. Cat 3 that hits Bermuda... maybe. Wouldn't rule out a cat-1 Northeastern US landfall.
There is some convection near Cuba (formerly Ana). This bears careful watching for Gulf states as the S. Cuban waters are ripe for rapid development (TCHP >80).
Bill - TCHP isn't there, and SSTs are marginally favorable for intensification. Cat 3 that hits Bermuda... maybe. Wouldn't rule out a cat-1 Northeastern US landfall.
There is some convection near Cuba (formerly Ana). This bears careful watching for Gulf states as the S. Cuban waters are ripe for rapid development (TCHP >80).
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