Currently I'm workin on my Senior Research Paper for college. I decided to choose the topic of Iraqi political stabilty because of my two tours to the country. In my time there I have seen lots of change and remain optomistic for the country. I'd love to see it succeed. While I'm working on the paper and the research, I want to try and remain open minded about the topic. I wanted to know what you guys think Iraq has instore for thier future over the next 12 months. The paper I'm working on is going to be about 25 pages when I'm done with it. I've done tons of research, but I love to get outside opinions on the subject. I figured I would consult you guys because there are always things thrown in a conversation here that I didn't think of. I enjoy the diversity on PFF when it comes to all issues. So guys, what do you think the country will look like ini the next 12 months?

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AIM: DR650SE
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It depends on how quickly U.S. forces are pulled out. I have no doubt that groups that want democracy in Iraq to fail are simply waiting until we're gone to cause trouble.

I personally believe the infighting between Shites, Kurds, Baaths, and other religious/political groups will resurface untill one of them guts the weaker ones. Regionally strong 'warlords' like Sadr will openly fight with others for control. A situation similar to what has been going on in Somalia for many years. Much depends on what Iran wants for Iraq.

Like some of the above had said. When I was there, they (Arabs) were friendly.

I'm sure after we are gone though--After US combat forces pull out, we are going to see a rise in sectarian violence.

Kurd, shia and sunni are all going to be waiting for the upcoming US power Vacuum when we leave.

Our friends in Iran are waiting to excercise their influence in the region also.

Look for violence to continue.

I think we should have left Iraq alone and gone after the Iranians. Iraq was the weaker of the two.

But I am only a 2 tour National Guardsman. What do I know.

well, we all know how tough it is to force such liberal thinking in such a conservative territory

The sectarian violence in Iraq goes far beyond the U.S. invasion and will be there long after we've left. Saddam Hussein kept the peace because he was a ruthless dictator. That, and by controlling the media if there was lots of violence, word of it didn't spread as far or as fast.

In the absence of an iron fisted ruler, I see the situation devolving into civil war sooner or later. Either one faction will eradicate the other, or Iraq will split into 3 basic nation-states, with Kurd, Sunni, and Shiite states and perhaps a central government in Baghdad. That might even be preferable to continued violence. The problem is the country's oil reserves are not equally distributed geographically, so you'll have factions fighting for control of the oil fields.

I don't think Iraq is capable of sustaining a democracy.