OK people, you were saying that places like CNN were all just talking about one that is 90 or 900 years away?
Not anymore! The 1997XF-11 asteroid that is on a collision course with Earth in 2028 is now all over the major web sites including CNN. These are all directly off CNN's web site.
http://www.cnn.com/TECH/space/9804/12/asteroid/
"Asteroid on course for near miss-or-collision with Earth
In this story:
* But not 'til year 2028
* Impact: 2 million atomic bombs
* Related stories and sites
Web posted at: 12:07 a.m. EST (GMT)
CAMBRIDGE, Massachusetts (CNN) -- Astronomers say a mile-wide asteroid described as "the most dangerous one we've found so far" may be on course for a near-miss -- or even a collision -- with Earth in the year 2028.
Some astronomers were saying that the asteroid will come within 30,000 miles of the Earth, and were agreeing with Dr. Brian Marsden of the International Astronomical Union (IAU) who had said, "Chances are it will miss" Earth.
"The chance of an actual collision is now there, and not entirely out of the question," says a notice filed by the IAU.
Asteroid collision:
But there are those, including asteroid specialist Jack G. Hills, who find the asteroid designated as 1997 XF11 very frightening.
"It is the first really big one to pass this close," says Hills, a Los Alamos National Laboratory scientist. "This is the most dangerous one we've found so far. It scares me, it really does. An object this big hitting the Earth has the potential of killing many, many people."
Animation of asteroid's journey
1.4MB / 19 sec. / 320x240
561 K / 19 sec. / 160x120
QuickTime movie
"It has enormous destructive potential," agreed Steven Maran of the American Astronomical Society, but he added it will take several more years of observations before experts are certain of its path.
Asteroid 1997 XF11 was discovered December 6 by Jim Scotti of the University of Arizona Spacewatch program, and has been added to the top of a list of 108 asteroids considered to be "potentially hazardous objects."
The Central Bureau for Astronomical Telegrams -- which tracks asteroids -- conducted further observations that determined if 1997 XF11 was to miss, it should pass just under 30,000 miles from Earth on October 26, 2028.
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A L S O :
Collision course: Bracing for an asteroid impact
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The estimate, Maran said, has a margin of error of more than 180,000 miles. This means a collision with Earth is very possible, but uncertain at this time, he said.
Astronomers say the asteroid is projected to hopefully pass within 30,000 miles of the Earth on October 26, 2028
Better estimates will be generated as astronomers plot the course of the asteroid during the next few years.
Astronomers say that even if it were on a path to hit Earth, technology might be available by then that would be capable of deflecting the asteroid.
"What would be scary is if it were three days from now or three weeks or even three years," Marsden says. "Thirty years is just right because it's far enough in the future. If it were going to hit us, and that's a big if, we would have time to plan to do something about it."
Marsden says, "It was quite startling to find that the nominal orbit that we were using brought it as close as we did. I have not seen anything like that."
An asteroid 6 to 10 miles across collided with the Earth about 65 million years ago and is thought to have caused the extinction of the dinosaurs, along with 75 percent of all other species.
Impact: 2 million atomic bombs
Hills said an asteroid the size of 1997 XF11 colliding with the Earth at more than 17,000 miles an hour would explode with an energy of about 320,000 megatons of dynamite. That equals almost 2 million Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs.
Such an asteroid hitting the ocean, Hills said, would create a tidal wave hundreds of feet high, causing extreme flooding along thousands of miles of coastline.
"If one like this hit in the Atlantic Ocean, all of the coastal cities would be scoured by the tsunami," said Hills. "Where cities stood, there would be only mudflats."
Animation from Sandia National Lab
If it struck land, he said, it would blast a crater 20 miles across and so clog the sky with dust and vapor that the sun would be darkened "for weeks, if not months."
Marsden said the announcement about the asteroid was meant to alert astronomers, not to frighten the public. "It's not intended to be scary or alarmist," he said. "The Earth as a target is not very big."
Technology by the year 2028 could probably deal with any asteroid, Marsden said.
"Suppose we knew it were going to hit ... That is the time to start doing something about it and sending missions to it. A little deflection, that's what you need, and with time on your side you don't need much of a deflection."
He added that, "If it really is as close as 30,000 miles it will really be quite bright" and would be visible in Europe -- where it will be evening -- with the naked eye."
Reuters contributed to this report."
http://www.cnn.com/TECH/space/9804/12/collision/index.html
"Collision course: Bracing for an asteroid impact:
Close calls and contingency planning
(CNN) -- It happens once or twice every million years. A comet or asteroid tears through Earth's atmosphere and smashes into the ground or ocean with enough force to destroy civilization.
The good news:
Scientists have spotted the object in plenty of time.
The bad news:
Even with this much warning, there's nowhere to hide.
It sounds like the stuff of Michael Crichton (or for that matter, a rerun on NBC), but in fact, the threat is now very real, even if the odds are in our favor. Right now, there are about 2000 large bodies -- also known as NEOs (Near-Earth Objects) -- that cross the orbit of Earth and, in theory, could hit us. Asteroid 1997 XF-11 has been described as possibly the most significant coming future event in our history.
There already have been a handful of close calls in recent years. On March 23, 1989, an asteroid about a half-mile wide crossed the Earth's orbit about 400,000 miles from Earth. The Earth had been in that same spot a mere six hours earlier. On January 17, 1991, an asteroid estimated to be about 30 feet wide passed within 106,000 miles of Earth. It was the closest "near miss" ever recorded.
Smaller objects hit the Earth all the time. Most of them land in oceans or uninhabitated areas, unnoticed. But some make headlines.
A small meteorite hit this car in 1994.
On October 9, 1992, a meteorite smashed through the rear end of a car in Peekskill, New York. No one was hurt, but the Chevy Malibu was totaled. (6.3M/30 sec.
The most vivid example yet of a comet's destructiveness occurred in the summer of 1994, when Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 collided with Jupiter, creating a spectacular plume that rose above the Jovian cloudtops. (235K/21 sec.
Jupiter after the comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 collision
NASA scientists take the threat of an impact seriously, but they've had a hard time convincing Washington to fund a proposed early warning system.
In 1991, a NASA study, requested by Congress, recommended the development of an international Spaceguard Survey -- a system of specially designed ground-based telescopes that would be used as surveillance cameras to detect Earth-threatening objects. The estimated cost was $10 million a year. Congress declined to fund the project.
NASA does spend about $1 million a year on smaller-scale asteroid and comet search programs. But the programs are only able to monitor about 10 percent of the sky per month, according to one expert.
So what will we do if the unthinkable happens? Is Earth defenseless against a large comet or asteroid?
Scientists and military planners say with enough warning we could intercept a cosmic cannonball. Among the defensive manuvers under study ... and debate:
Nuke It:
A nuclear blast near the object could blow it off course.
Pulverize It:
Rockets with heavy payloads smash the object into bits or divert it off course
Melt It:
Earth-based or Moon-based lasers would be used to boil off layers, redirecting it
All of these "solutions" would require months, maybe years of planning and development, not to mention the aim of a sharpshooter. In other words, the earlier the warning, the better. But given the modest surveillance of the stars now under way, some experts contend we're still more vulnerable than we need to be.
Even the ever-cautious NASA refuses to discount the danger. They have included information in a "Fact Sheet on Asteroid and Comet Impacts" found at NASA's Web site."
[This message has been edited by Fiero5 (edited 04-09-2002).]
