The economy, is it good or bad. (Page 91/181)
madcurl NOV 27, 06:35 PM

quote
Originally posted by madcurl:
I hope somebody was buying on the dip? The four horseman are up and running.




Three of my four horsemen are up and running. AAPL, RIMM, GOOG. LFC and CSCO is moving upward, but slowly. Dumped FXI @ 180. Nice chunck of $$$ if you got in $64 or even $120. I'm still scared of the finaicials especially Citi (C) even though that over-seas prince jump-in and is bailing out (C).
84fiero123 NOV 27, 07:24 PM
You people have turned this into nothing else but the stock market reports. That was never what I said or intended. The housing market is going down the tubes and taking a lot of other things with it.

You want to keep running off at the mouth about the stock market go for it.

It was never just about the stock market.

But then what do I know, I just started the thread.


quote
Originally posted by 84fiero123:

The economy, is it good or bad.
Are we headed into a recession?
I see on the one hand the stock market is taking a dive,

Stocks Plunge; Dow Down More Than 310


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Jul 26, 6:33 PM (ET)

By JOE BEL BRUNO

(AP) Trader Peter Tuchman rubs his head as he works or the floor of the New York Stock Exchange,...
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NEW YORK (AP) - Wall Street suffered one of its worst losses of 2007 Thursday, leading a global stock market plunge as investors succumbed to months of worry about the mortgage and corporate lending markets. The Dow Jones industrials closed down more than 310 points after earlier skidding nearly 450.
Investors who had been able for months to largely shrug off discomfort about subprime mortgage problems and a more difficult environment for corporate borrowing finally decided it was time to sell after the Commerce Department issued another disappointing home sales report.

http://apnews.excite.com/ar...70726/D8QKI33O0.html

The housing market is down the tubes.

Investor Losses Seen in Housing Slump


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Jul 26, 6:50 PM (ET)

By ALEX VEIGA

(AP) A home is offered for sale in Riverside, Calif. Monday, July 23 2007. Mortgage defaults in...
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LOS ANGELES (AP) - The national housing slump could lead to billions of dollars in losses for Wall Street investors as it drags on for at least another year and mortgage defaults increase, economists said Thursday.
The outlook on eroding credit quality in the U.S. mortgage market by Moody's Economy.com anticipates that more than 1.2 million first mortgage loans will default this year and another 1.3 million will follow next year.
That compares with about 900,000 defaults last year and about 800,000 in 2005, Mark Zandi, the Web site's chief economist, said in a conference call.
Hedge fund investors will lose between $100 billion and $125 billion as a result, he said.


"We do expect losses in the subprime market to be very severe," Zandi said

http://apnews.excite.com/ar...70726/D8QKIBC00.html

Yet the government says everything is doing great.

Economy Growth Is Best in a Year


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Jul 27, 9:14 AM (ET)

By JEANNINE AVERSA

(AP) A newly constructed home waits for an owner in Bainbridge Twp., Ohio on Thursday, July 26, 2007. ...
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WASHINGTON (AP) - The economy snapped out of a lethargic spell and grew at a 3.4 percent pace in the second quarter, the strongest showing in more than a year. A revival in business spending was a main force behind the energized performance.
The new reading on gross domestic product, released by the Commerce Department on Friday, marked a big improvement from the first three months of this year, when economic growth skidded to a near halt at just a 0.6 percent pace, the slowest in more than four years.

http://apnews.excite.com/ar...70727/D8QKV0500.html

What do you think?




Look at the last line of the first post I started this thread with. It asks what you think, not who is stupid because of their opinions.

o·pin·ion

o·pin·ion [ə pínnyən]
(plural o·pin·ions)
n
1. personal view: the view somebody takes about a certain issue, especially when it is based solely on personal judgment
In my opinion it’s all a waste of time.


Encarta ® World English Dictionary © & (P) 1998-2004 Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved.

------------------
Technology is great when it works,
and one big pain in the ass when it doesn't.
Detroit iron rules all the rest are just toys.

84Bill NOV 27, 07:56 PM

quote
Originally posted by 84fiero123:




I read a report last week that the GDP growth for 08 was downgraded from a 2.5 to a 3.5% gain to a 1.5 to 2.5% gain. The article seemed to hint at the possibility that lowering that projection further would cause mass hysteria facilitating a huge market sell off.

It's interesting to think if that were the case what the real projections are... Like to be a fly on that wall. BUT what they hell, I'm used to being swatted at.
Red88FF NOV 27, 08:08 PM

quote
Originally posted by 84fiero123:
Look at the last line of the first post I started this thread with. It asks what you think, not who is stupid because of their opinions.




Wow, you guys are still here? ste.stu. sta. stoooped.
jstricker NOV 28, 04:24 PM
Steve,

Is that a surprise? The market, both stocks and commodities, is a major indicator of what the economy is doing, good or bad.

To further exasperate things, anytime Bill could find ANY piece of negative news, he posts it. Others countered. Snapshot of today:

Crude Oil Prices: "Light, sweet crude for January delivery plunged $2.64 to $91.78 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil futures fell more than $3 a barrel on Tuesday, and are more than $7 below the record price of $99.29 set last week." LINK

With Crude Oil prices falling, gasoline and heating oil prices will also eventually drop. Don't expect miracles to come overnight, though. Here, our gas prices have dropped about 15 cents since the week before Thanksgiving. This is good news and makes people feel better going into a high retail purchase period like Christmas. If the drops stick, and I think they will because conversely to the stock market, the Oil price is way overbought, then it will mitigate any downtrend in the economy.

Stock Market: :NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks jumped on Wednesday as hopes for a Federal Reserve interest cut boosted financial services companies for a second day, while falling oil prices eased concern about higher energy costs. The surge put Wall Street on track for its biggest two-day advance in 4-1/2 years." LINNK

The market closed right at 340 points higher for today, 550 points higher than the close (lowest in 7 months, the headlines screamed) Monday. That's a 4.3% increase in 2 days. The quote above is a gross oversimplification. Moves like this come when the market is too far one way or the other. Just as there can be a "boom" bubble, with everyone wanting in In IN there can be a down bubble with everyone wanting out Out OUT. Money can be made just as easily in a down market as an up market if you're brave enough to speculate and sell it short, that is, sell stock you don't own. When it goes against you, if the market goes up, you can lose serious money very fast, and the short sellers today were doing just that. So what to do? Liquidate their short positions and hope to ride the wave up to recoup some losses by buying long. Yes, this can also reverse just as fast. Such is the life of the speculator as opposed to the investor.

Other factors played in as well. Citi had a large infusion of capital yesterday from outside sources. This signals that there is money waiting on the sidelines for an opportunity to buy and the banking sector has taken a beating lately, much of it now undervalued.

The crap mortgage market in the form of sub-prime loans and risky interest only loans is for all intents and purposes gone. Let's face it, a lot of people bought homes that couldn't afford them under normal circumstances or bought higher value property they couldn't afford. That's not going to happen again soon so, guess what? "WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. economic growth slowed in October and the first half of November as a glut of homes for sale pushed home prices down and tighter credit took some would-be buyers out of the market, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday. " LINK This part of the downside isn't over yet. It started about 6 months ago and will take at least another 6 months to get put back to some kind of normalcy. While it causes the banks problems, you also have to remember that for the last several years banks have been making money in record amounts, so most will be able to weather the storm. Some will not. They won't just go away, though, they'll be absorbed by other, stronger banks. It happens every so often, and will continue to happen.

There is going to be a lot of volatility ahead in the markets. The housing market in some areas, particularly the east and west coasts, is going to be pretty tough with defaults high. Don't think that is nationwide, though. In our area, with more local banks, we have never had really loose credit. I talked to my banker a couple of weeks ago and his default rate is no higher, or lower, than it has been the last few years because they wouldn't even write an ARM loan. All he offered was fixed rate. The stock market will fall down to close to that 12,750 mark again, probably before the first of the year. It has two big gaps to fill and it WILL fill them. If you go back to 1935 at the low, the market will have to drop below something like 7,500 before the long term uptrend in the market is broken. Can it do that? You bet. Will it? Doubtful. Just don't think it can't. A more realistic support line is a trend dating back to 1982 and that would break the long term trend at something around 10,800, the last time I looked. If it cracks that, and closes below it, then I'll be worried about the long term health of the market. Until then, no major trends have been changed.

John Stricker

quote
Originally posted by 84fiero123:

You people have turned this into nothing else but the stock market reports. That was never what I said or intended. The housing market is going down the tubes and taking a lot of other things with it.

You want to keep running off at the mouth about the stock market go for it.

It was never just about the stock market.

But then what do I know, I just started the thread.


Look at the last line of the first post I started this thread with. It asks what you think, not who is stupid because of their opinions.

o·pin·ion

o·pin·ion [ə pínnyən]
(plural o·pin·ions)
n
1. personal view: the view somebody takes about a certain issue, especially when it is based solely on personal judgment
In my opinion it’s all a waste of time.


Encarta ® World English Dictionary © & (P) 1998-2004 Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved.
jstricker NOV 28, 04:36 PM
Don't know where you read that, I've been reading just the opposite.


quote

The US dollar, equity markets, and Treasury yields could stand to gain as annualized GDP for Q3 is expected to be revised higher on Thursday. Indeed, initial estimates were already strong and showed that expansion accelerated 3.9 percent from 3.8 percent in Q2, as exports, consumption, and business investment picked up the slack of a collapsing home construction sector. This time around, Q3 GDP is forecasted to be revised to a four-year high of 4.9 percent as the US trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in September amidst broad weakness in the dollar and record export demand. However, personal consumption is forecasted to be revised down to 2.8 percent from 3.0 percent, which may serve as a reminder that the American consumer – who fuels two-thirds of the economy – faces major hurdles in Q4 as record high gas prices, falling home values, and a shake-up in the financial markets plagues sentiment.

LINK

I haven't seen any projections for '08 from the Government for anything over 3% increase in a LONG time. Maybe it was an old article?


quote

The new Fed central projections for 2008, updated since the last issuance in June, added to the Dollar’s needy state. Real GDP growth projections were lowered to 1.8% to 2.5% from 2.5% to 2.75%, inflation projections were reduced and “financial markets [were still viewed] as fragile and [susceptible] to an adverse shock such as a sharp deterioration in credit quality or the disclosure of an unusually large and unanticipated loss [that] could further dent investor confidence and significantly increase the downside risks to the economy”.



LINK

I honestly think most of the bad news on the credit issues are out there. Enough time has passed that the required filings have been made and analysts have had ample time to look them over. A bigger issue, to me, is what will happen in Iran, but that's nothing that can be predicted at this time. Also keep in mind the Fed is generally a pretty pessimistic body and before the first of THIS year were predicting growth (due to high oil prices) of less than 3%. It looks like annualized it will be closer to 3.5% or more, but that remains to be seen.

John Stricker

Edited because I forgot the second link...........

quote
Originally posted by 84Bill:
I read a report last week that the GDP growth for 08 was downgraded from a 2.5 to a 3.5% gain to a 1.5 to 2.5% gain. The article seemed to hint at the possibility that lowering that projection further would cause mass hysteria facilitating a huge market sell off.

It's interesting to think if that were the case what the real projections are... Like to be a fly on that wall. BUT what they hell, I'm used to being swatted at.

[This message has been edited by jstricker (edited 11-28-2007).]

madcurl NOV 28, 05:32 PM

quote
Originally posted by madcurl:
Three of my four horsemen are up and running. AAPL, RIMM, GOOG. LFC and CSCO is moving upward, but slowly. Dumped FXI @ 180. Nice chunck of $$$ if you got in $64 or even $120. I'm still scared of the finaicials especially Citi (C) even though that over-seas prince jump-in and is bailing out (C).




Wow! The DOW is up....all of the four horsemen are up and running hard!
84fiero123 NOV 28, 06:25 PM
For the last time this is not just about the stock market. Anyone who invests in the market had better be able loose it and walk away.

The state treasurer in Maine here just lost 20 million dollars of state money on bonds purchased. That were backed by something to do with the sub prime mortgage.

State loses $20 million on risky investment

Wednesday, November 21, 2007
Two of Maine's highest ranking political leaders are demanding change in the way the state invests tax dollars after an investment linked to subprime mortgages tanked.

Gov. John Baldacci is among those reacting to the loss of $20 million invested by Maine into a short-term, high risk offshore fund called Main-Sail Two, WGME TV reported Tuesday.

The state made the investment in August at the recommendation of brokers at Merrill-Lynch, Channel 13 reported.

That fund was largely backed by subprime mortgages - loans made to people with questionable credit that's led to the collapse of the real estate market and a record number of home foreclosures. Main-Sail Two defaulted and is unable to pay back the $20 million invested by the state.

http://www.sunjournal.com/s...on_risky_investment/

Now those that keep harping on the market, do so.

We are headed into a recession in my opinion.

Fed: Economy Loses Speed, Shopping Slows



Wednesday November 28, 5:05 PM EST

WASHINGTON (AP) — The economy grew at a slower pace in the late fall as shoppers watched their pennies heading into the busy holiday season.
The Federal Reserve's new snapshot, released Wednesday, suggested the strains from a severe housing slump and a painful credit crunch are affecting the behavior of individuals and businesses alike — making them somewhat more cautious.

http://money.excite.com/jsp...ews_id=ap-d8t6udb83&

Gas prices are about a dollar more a gallon now than they were at the same time last year. This is supposed to be good?

------------------
Technology is great when it works,
and one big pain in the ass when it doesn't.
Detroit iron rules all the rest are just toys.

84Bill NOV 28, 06:27 PM

quote
Originally posted by 84fiero123:

For the last time this is not just about the stock market. Anyone who invests in the market had better be able loose it and walk away.

The state treasurer in Maine here just lost 20 million dollars of state money on bonds purchased. That were backed by something to do with the sub prime mortgage.

State loses $20 million on risky investment



Maybe we can get the UAE to cover some of the states losses.
jstricker NOV 28, 08:05 PM
Steve,

If your mind is made up that we're heading for a recession, then why did you ask for opinions? Or did you just want opinions of those that agree with you?

Sorry about the State of Maine losing the money. Did the treasurer make the decision or did he have a money manager do it (and I'm not talking about the people at Merril). A few years ago, the state of KS lost a huge chunk of money from the employee retirement fund. Heads DID roll and the fund is now much better managed (and making money). I'm curious what checks and balances Maine had in place for something like this, sounds like not much oversight.

I hardly think that's going to bring down the economy of the state of Maine, though, much less throw the US into a recession.

While you may keep saying it's not about the stock market, 80% of the people in the US ARE invested in the stock market both individually or through their retirement funds. It also indicates sectors that are doing well and those that are doing poorly. You simply can't discuss the economy without mentioning the market. Get used to it.

Gasoline is right now about 65 cents higher than one year ago, not a dollar. But I suppose that's one way of looking at it. No, that's not good for the economy and I don't like to pay it any more than you do. Keep in mind, though, that they get about 19.5 gallons of gasoline out of a 42 gallon barrel of oil. Oil is trading today at about $92, so there is $2.17 worth of oil in every gallon of gas without any refining, transportation, or profit figured in. Gas isn't coming down a whole lot until oil gets back to that $70 level or so. Before you say that won't happen, don't count on it. Commoditiy prices, ANY COMMODITY, is cyclical. Oil was nearly this high historically a couple decades ago and people thought then it would never come down either. It did. It will again.

It's also interesting that a while back, everyone was yelling about how all the other currencies were doing so well as opposed to the US Dollar. Strangely silent lately, aren't they? Wonder why? With the exception of the Euro, the dollar has been coming back pretty strong since it's lows back the first week or so of November.

Sure, there are things going on that are not good for the economy. There are also things going on that ARE good for the economy. It's all a question of balance. Always has been.

Personally, I see slow growth through the first half of '08. A recession means negative growth in the GDP for two or more consecutive quarters. That's not going to happen, I don't believe. If you think it's going to happen then you need to conserve cash because inflation appears to be marginal at best and into the forseeable future and if a recession DOES come about, cash will be king in picking up bargains. It already is in the housing market in some areas, but that's not the only thing that drives the economy.

John Stricker


quote
Originally posted by 84fiero123:

For the last time this is not just about the stock market. Anyone who invests in the market had better be able loose it and walk away.

The state treasurer in Maine here just lost 20 million dollars of state money on bonds purchased. That were backed by something to do with the sub prime mortgage.

State loses $20 million on risky investment

Wednesday, November 21, 2007
Two of Maine's highest ranking political leaders are demanding change in the way the state invests tax dollars after an investment linked to subprime mortgages tanked.

Gov. John Baldacci is among those reacting to the loss of $20 million invested by Maine into a short-term, high risk offshore fund called Main-Sail Two, WGME TV reported Tuesday.

The state made the investment in August at the recommendation of brokers at Merrill-Lynch, Channel 13 reported.

That fund was largely backed by subprime mortgages - loans made to people with questionable credit that's led to the collapse of the real estate market and a record number of home foreclosures. Main-Sail Two defaulted and is unable to pay back the $20 million invested by the state.

http://www.sunjournal.com/s...on_risky_investment/

Now those that keep harping on the market, do so.

We are headed into a recession in my opinion.

Fed: Economy Loses Speed, Shopping Slows



Wednesday November 28, 5:05 PM EST

WASHINGTON (AP) — The economy grew at a slower pace in the late fall as shoppers watched their pennies heading into the busy holiday season.
The Federal Reserve's new snapshot, released Wednesday, suggested the strains from a severe housing slump and a painful credit crunch are affecting the behavior of individuals and businesses alike — making them somewhat more cautious.

http://money.excite.com/jsp...ews_id=ap-d8t6udb83&

Gas prices are about a dollar more a gallon now than they were at the same time last year. This is supposed to be good?