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| The economy, is it good or bad. (Page 179/181) |
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84Bill
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JAN 29, 02:30 PM
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84Bill
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JAN 30, 08:34 AM
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UBS expects $14 billion housing hit
Swiss bank says bad bets on subprime mortgages will result in record fourth-quarter loss of $11.5 billion.
ZURICH, Switzerland (AP) -- UBS AG said Wednesday it expects a record loss for the fourth quarter, largely as a result of $14 billion of writedowns on bad investments in U.S. subprime mortgages.
Switzerland's largest bank said it expects a fourth-quarter loss of $11.45 billion. The full-year net loss - the first in its 10-year history - will amount to $4.03 billion.
Home ownership in record plunge.
Fourth quarter saw biggest one-year drop in since tracking began in 1965 - as mortgage problems and rising foreclosures take their toll.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The housing and mortgage meltdown caused the biggest one-year drop in the rate of homeownership on record, according to government figures released Tuesday.
The decline, while expected, is yet another indication of the housing market's sudden and dramatic turn.
The Census Bureau report showed that home owners accounted for 67.8% of occupied homes in the fourth quarter, down 1.1 points from a year earlier. It's the largest year-over-year drop recorded in the report.
"It's an incredible story," said Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research. "We're back to where we were in 2002, which is before the subprime nuttiness and run-up in prices. And it's not clear how much farther we're going to fall."
The ownership rate was well below the 68.2% ownership rate in the third quarter of 2007. Homeownership rates, which have been tracked since 1965, hit a record high of 69.2% in the second and fourth quarters of 2004.
Wal-Mart sheds apparel ambitions
Wal-Mart (WMT) is getting back to basics in its $30 billion clothing business. The nation’s biggest retailer is planning a shakeup of its apparel unit and the firing of “a significant number of workers” at its Bentonville, Ark., headquarters, The New York Times reports. Wal-Mart will move some 30 merchandising jobs to New York as it seeks to narrow its focus on basic clothes its customer base wants. Wal-Mart has tried in recent years to pull in more upscale consumers by offering more stylish clothing, but that effort met with limited success. The company’s Metro7 jeans, for instance, sold well in some urban stores but were rejected by Wal-Mart shoppers in most of the country. Now, the executive who led the upscale clothing push is gone, and Wal-Mart is looking to sell more brightly colored T-shirts, the Times reports. The new direction, as simple as it seems, certainly sounds like a better fit.
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84Bill
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JAN 30, 09:47 AM
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Consumer Confidence report out today.
Yeah yeah "growth" is good we know so spare us all the diatribe on how less than expected growth is somehow good when it isnt.
The "growth" should be off the charts for December, it wasn't, it was a dismal display of a weakening economy.
Economy much weaker than expected
Gross domestic product slowed to a 0.6% growth rate in the fourth quarter, raising both recession fears and hope for another deep Fed cut.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The economy grew at a much slower pace in the last three months of the year, according to a government report Wednesday that came in well below Wall Street expectations.
The report raised fears of a recession and hopes for another significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
The gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation's economic activity, grew at an annual rate of 0.6%, adjusted for inflation, in the fourth quarter, according to the Commerce Department, down from 4.9% in the final reading of growth in the third quarter. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast GDP would slow to a 1.2%.
The report comes amid rising concern that the U.S. economy is falling into a recession, with some economists arguing the downturn started in the final month of 2007.
It also comes as the Fed concludes a two-day meeting to consider whether or not to cut interest rates once again in order to spur the economy and ward off a recession. The central bank has already lowered rates by 1.75 percentage points since September, including an emergency 0.75 percentage point cut, also known as a 75 basis point cut, a week ago.
Investors are betting that the Fed announces at least another quarter percentage point cut, or 25 basis points, when it announces its decision at 2:15 p.m. ET, with those buying fed funds futures on the Chicago Board of Trade were pricing in a 70% chance of a half-point, or 50 basis point cut, ahead of the GDP report.
But while the weakness in the report suggested that the Fed might move aggressively to cut rates, the inflation readings in the report could be a concern for the central bank. The so-called price deflator, which measures prices overall, rose at a 2.6% annual rate, up from only a 1% rise in the third quarter but in line with forecasts.
Perhaps of greater concern is that the so-called core PCE deflator - a more closely watched inflation reading that measures prices that individuals pay excluding volatile food and energy prices - rose 2.7%, up from a 2.0% reading in the third quarter and nearly double the 1.4% rise in the second quarter.
The Fed is generally seen as wanting to see that reading rise between 1% and 2%, meaning the latest reading is far from its so-called comfort zone.
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cliffw
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JAN 30, 10:04 AM
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| quote | Originally posted by 84Bill:
Yeah yeah "growth" is good we know so spare us all the diatribe on how less than expected growth is somehow good when it isnt.
The "growth" should be off the charts for December, it wasn't, it was a dismal display of a weakening economy. |
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Billy, every thing which goes up must come down. We have good times we have bad times. Both exist to recognize the other. People gain weight and then lose weight. Tires go flat then you fix them. People get arrested and then straighten up their act. We get good grades in school and bad ones.
What is the fixation on doom and gloom,  , ?
The economy is just fine. In fact, maybe we should define the economy we are speaking of. The economy as they see it or the economy in one's back pocket ? The back pocket is up to us.
Life is about adapting, it is about being smart. Pssh the housing market. I am thinking about buying...and selling (most likely keeping). Pssh the gas prices, it takes money to make money. Pssh the food prices. Gas and food prices, adjusted for the cost of living are not too far out of line. As less people can afford them, prices will come down. If they want to sell any, .
Which economy is in dire straights ?
The job income economy? This is nothing new historically. We americans have just become used to having instead of getting.
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84Bill
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JAN 30, 10:15 AM
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| quote | Originally posted by cliffw:
What is the fixation on doom and gloom, , ?
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Why do you care?
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The economy is just fine.
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So you say but the facts dont support it. Have any facts to support it?
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Life is about adapting, it is about being smart. Pssh the housing market. I am thinking about buying...and selling (most likely keeping). Pssh the gas prices, it takes money to make money. Pssh the food prices. Gas and food prices, adjusted for the cost of living are not too far out of line. As less people can afford them, prices will come down. If they want to sell any, .
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Doesnt mean jackshit if there is no money circulating "persay" or that the money that is in circulatiuon is so diluted or is that deluded? that it's near worthless.
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Which economy is in dire straights ?
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Pick one, they are all in the tank right now. EU, China, Canada. Pick one.
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The job income economy? This is nothing new historically. We americans have just become used to having instead of getting. |
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ALL the leading indicators are down. Like some on this forum the reports try to put a positive spin on a declining economy. However, the reports all show an across the board drop or "decline" in economic expectations. I don't expect you to comprehend or understand what that means in the big world picture you "live in."
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Phranc
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JAN 30, 10:53 AM
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Key indicators are down?
http://online.wsj.com/artic...161964035725415.html
Durable goods are up. Unexpectedly up.
| quote | | After a feeble rise in November, orders for durable goods -- products designed to last at least three years -- rose by 5.2% last month to a seasonally adjusted $226.6 billion, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. Most of the gain came from a big jump in demand for commercial aircraft. But a key gauge of business spending -- orders for nondefense capital goods excluding sometimes-volatile orders of aircraft -- also surged in December, rising 4.4%, |
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World markets are in the tank?
http://online.wsj.com/artic...159859059725085.html
So growth is bad?
| quote | European shares scored their third rise in six sessions on Tuesday, lifted by gains for financial and mining equities a day before a key decision on U.S. interest rates by the Federal Reserve.
The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index closed with gains of 1.6% to stand at 323.93, behind strong gains for miners and banks.
Of national indexes, the French CAC-40 index finished up 1.9% to 4,941.45, the German DAX 30 index ended the day up 1.1% to 6,892.96 and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 index advanced 1.7% to 5,885.20. |
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Money is near worthless.
So how much is your toilet paper?
http://www.nytimes.com/2006...rtner=rssnyt&emc=rss
| quote | HARARE, Zimbabwe, April 25 — How bad is inflation in Zimbabwe? Well, consider this: at a supermarket near the center of this tatterdemalion capital, toilet paper costs $417.
No, not per roll. Four hundred seventeen Zimbabwean dollars is the value of a single two-ply sheet. A roll costs $145,750 — in American currency, about 69 cents.
The price of toilet paper, like everything else here, soars almost daily, spawning jokes about an impending better use for Zimbabwe's $500 bill, now the smallest in circulation. |
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Yes that is a ten million dollar bill.
Ecomnomic indicators.
ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL TRADE AND FOOD SERVICES
Lower then the month before but higher then last year.
| quote | The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $382.9 billion, a decrease of 0.4 percent (±0.7%)* from the previous month, but 4.1 percent (±0.7%) above December 2006. Total sales for the 12 months of 2007 were up 4.2 percent (±0.4%) from 2006. Total sales for the October through December 2007 period were up 4.9 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The October to November 2007 percent change was revised from +1.2 percent (±0.7%) to +1.0 percent (±0.2%).
Retail trade sales were down 0.4 percent (±0.7%)* from November 2007, but were 4.3 percent (±0.8%) above last year. Gasoline station sales were up 18.5 percent (±2.8%) from December 2006 and sales of nonstore retailers were up 12.1 percent (±1.8%) from last December. |
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Is that a down indicator?
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: FOURTH QUARTER 2007 (ADVANCE)
| quote | Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007,
according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real
GDP increased 4.9 percent.
The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter "advance" estimates are based on source data that
are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3). The fourth-
quarter "preliminary" estimates, based on more comprehensive data, will be
released on February 28, 2008. |
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Thats still up, right?
Most key indicators aren't out yet yet since there is a lag in quarterly reports which is how most of them come out.
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84Bill
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JAN 30, 11:03 AM
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| quote | Originally posted by unnamed:
Deluded incoherent shell shocked misinformed ramblings. |
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Must be why the Fed and the federal government are trying desperately to prop things up and put a pretty face on a very ugly problem huh? It's just all part of the way a strong economy works, a circus act of congress.
Just a prop here, a mirror there, some smoke, sleight of hand and more beguilement than Sylvester the Jester. Very entertaining but your contention has more holes in it than government approved USDA grade A swiss.
Do you know how to use a calculator? Whats the net percentage loss of the GDP from the expected 1.2%
I'll give ya a hint.
Actual "growth" .6%
Minus the projected growth 1.2% which was adjusted down from 4.9%.
Thats a downward slip of how much.
The Fed's stagflation fear. IT'S ALL A LIE!!!!!
The economy grew at weaker pace than expected in the fourth quarter but inflation was higher too.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Uh-oh. The Federal Reserve's decision at 2:15 p.m. just got a little tougher.
Fourth-quarter growth in gross domestic product was lower than expected, rising only 0.6%, compared to forecasts of 1.2% growth and way below the 4.9% growth in the third quarter.
That certainly lends credence to the arguments that the economy is nearing - if not already in - a recession and that the Fed should slash interest rates again this afternoon.
Another number in the GDP report should give the central bank pause, however.
The core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator, an admittedly wonky sounding piece of econojargon that is actually a very important indicator of inflation, rose 2.7% on an annualized basis. That's up from 2% in the third quarter and was higher than the 2.5% that economists were expecting.
As I wrote in Monday's Morning Buzz, inflation is still something the Fed has to be concerned with. The latest number proves that. Still, this probably won't be enough to keep the Fed from cutting rates by another half-of-a-percentage point.
But the threat of stagflation, a period of both economic sluggishness and rising price pressures, has to weigh on the Fed when it puts together its carefully constructed statement.
The central bank needs to continue to talk tough on inflation and may need to signal to the market that after today's expected half-point cut - which would leave the federal funds rate at a pretty accommodating 3 percent - that it's time to hold steady for awhile.
As bad as the subprime mortgage mess has been, letting prices for many consumer goods run out of control by further weakening the dollar with aggressive rate cuts could have an even more damaging effect on the economy.
In fact, inflation could be contributing to the current slowdown.
"Domestic demand readings were weaker than we expected, not holding up well in the face of the inflation surge, driven mostly by energy costs," wrote Citigroup analyst Steven Wieting in a report this morning.
And no less an authority than former Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan warned about the possibility of stagflation as recently as last month. And with food and energy prices continuing to rise, hopefully current Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and the rest of the Fed will take Greenspan's words to heart.[This message has been edited by 84Bill (edited 01-30-2008).]
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84Bill
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JAN 30, 11:16 AM
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Ummm... loves me a good steak... 
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Phranc
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JAN 30, 11:17 AM
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.6% growth
1.2% growth
Is still growth.
less growth then before is still growth
And don't troll me bill. If you can't act like an adult don't post. You constant changing of my name in quotes is trolling. Cliff told you to stop. So why don't you? I know you can't because that would mean you can't start **** and then play the victim. I thought this brought you emotional stress? Either it wasn't that bad or you were lying again. If it were true and it was so bad you wouldn't keep starting crap with people at every opportunity. This is the second time in this thread you've started trolling me. And try to say it wasn't a troll everyone knows it is. Now stop harassing me.
And I like your strawman argument that the numbers are smoke and mirrors. It only goes to show you really don't have a clue and will dance and dodge and strawman.
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84Bill
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JAN 30, 11:20 AM
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| quote | Originally posted by Phranc:
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Smart move.
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