The economy, is it good or bad. (Page 144/181)
Pyrthian JAN 10, 09:49 AM

quote
Originally posted by 84fiero123:
......

"It's weaker than expected," said Jharonne Martis, a retail analyst at Thomson Financial. "There's definitely a consumer spending slowdown." But she added that she's waiting to see how sales fare in January, when stores benefit from consumers redeeming their gift cards. Retailers don't record sales of gift cards until they are redeemed.

....



ya - no ship. with everything getting more expensive, and pay not increaseing - thats what happens. in order for a "service" based economy to thrive - people need to be able to afford the services. but, since asians are now getting our pay - we cannot buy them services. it just amazes me that this is a surpirse? service based economy is bad thinking. their is no equity. it only works when EVERYONE chips in on the service. when some drop out, the costs is split among the remaining - and it goes up. so more drop out. like our health insurance system. as more fall out - the more it will cost, and then more will fall out.
84Bill JAN 10, 10:21 AM

quote
Originally posted by aceman:

We've gone round and round on these return vets.....

A) There aren't as many Reservists over in Iraq as one thinks. The Regular Army Soldier and Marines will go right back to their posts. The Reservists........90% of them will go back to their jobs guaranteed by law. 5% will encounter a dumb employer that will eventually get raked over the coals and 5% of them honestly lost their business because they shutdown their business when mobilized.



Insight on the News, Jan 5, 2004

Byline: Timothy W. Maier, INSIGHT
The Uniform Services Employment and Reemployment Act of 1994 guaranteed that. It required civilian employers to hold the Reservist’s job open – or one with a comparable description and pay – and to employ Reservists for at least a year after they returned from duty. Apparently, this is not what really is happening when our soldiers come home. One report states that as many as 22% of them lose their jobs and little is done to help them.


quote

B) With KBR you would see a lot of people getting back to work into the workforce......There is a shortage of workers for many of the jobs that the contractors that would be out of work fill.........Truck Drivers, Cooks, Administrative, etc. And, many of the KBR employees are previous contractors that will be able to find another contracting job or be able to stay on in Iraq's rebuilding.



I dont see how anyone would be willing to stay on as a contractor in Iraq without U.S. Military "protection."

[This message has been edited by 84Bill (edited 01-10-2008).]

84Bill JAN 10, 11:02 AM

quote
Originally posted by Pyrthian:


ya - no ship. with everything getting more expensive, and pay not increaseing - thats what happens. in order for a "service" based economy to thrive - people need to be able to afford the services. but, since asians are now getting our pay - we cannot buy them services. it just amazes me that this is a surpirse? service based economy is bad thinking. their is no equity. it only works when EVERYONE chips in on the service. when some drop out, the costs is split among the remaining - and it goes up. so more drop out. like our health insurance system. as more fall out - the more it will cost, and then more will fall out.



Been saying that since my job was shipped to India.
JazzMan JAN 10, 01:58 PM
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[This message has been edited by JazzMan (edited 12-04-2008).]

Phranc JAN 10, 04:11 PM
Stocks up 117 points. I bet its because of housing fears...........
84Bill JAN 10, 07:41 PM
Weakest holiday season in years
Many stores suffer big sales misses in December, but Wal-Mart and Costco benefit from cash-strapped consumers shopping for discounts.

EW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Retailers reported deep declines in their December sales Thursday, reflecting a 2007 holiday shopping season that is turning out to be one of the weakest in years.

"These numbers are bad because consumers are clearly seeing some pain here," Ken Perkins, president of sales tracker Retail Metrics, said.

According to Perkins, the holiday season started off strong as shoppers lapped up juicy discounts on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving which traditionally marks the start of the November-December gift-buying marathon which can account for as much as half of retailers' annual profits and sales.
84Bill JAN 10, 07:55 PM
Recession may already be here
Economists shift from wondering if there will be a recession to asking if the U.S. economy has already shifted into reverse.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The question for many economists is not if the U.S. economy will fall into a recession. It's whether it already has.

The formal recognition of a start of a recession probably wouldn't come for at least six months if not more than a year, as official judges from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) pour through various economic readings.

But top economists from two of the major Wall Street firms - Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs - say recession is likely already here.

The tipping point for both economists was the report released last Friday that showed a sharp jump in the unemployment rate in December, coupled with little growth.

"Friday's employment report strongly suggests that an official recession has arrived," wrote David Rosenberg, North American economist for Merrill, in a note this week entitled "Recession a reality."

He wrote that history points to a recession when the average length of the work week fell in back-to-back quarters, as it did in the third and fourth quarters of 2007. And he said at no time in the past 60 years has there been a half-percentage point climb in the unemployment rate from the low point without a recession following. The latest unemployment reading stands at 5.0 percent, up from 4.4 percent in March.
Uaana JAN 11, 01:22 AM
"Online Holiday Sales Up 20%, Total Retail Almost 5% Over Last Year
Posted January 7th, 2008 by Jack Loechner

Online Holiday Sales Up 20%, Total Retail Almost 5% Over Last Year

According to an update from comScore, Inc. for the 57 days of the 2007 holiday season (November 1 - December 27, nearly $28 billion has been spent online during the season-to-date, marking a 19-percent gain versus the corresponding days last year.

And, a follow-up report by Internet Retailer through December 29th, puts retail sales for the week ended Dec. 29 up 14% over the comparable week a year ago, according to the National Retail Sales Estimate compiled by ShopperTrak RCT Corp. Foot traffic to stores was up 6.9% over last year.

The late shopping push puts retail sales on track to reach the 3.6% gain in overall retail sales for the holiday season. By contrast, web measurement firm comScore Networks has projected a 20% increase in holiday online sales."

Link
http://blogs.mediapost.com/research_brief/?p=1610

Yes, it's a blog but combines all the numbers..
84fiero123 JAN 11, 08:55 AM
The US just after WWII had just 1/6th of the worlds population was making ˝ of the worlds products. I heard that on a TV show this morning.

I wonder how those stats hold up now?

Trade Deficit Surged in November


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Jan 11, 8:39 AM (ET)

By MARTIN CRUTSINGER
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WASHINGTON (AP) - The U.S. trade deficit in November surged to the highest level in 14 months, reflecting record imports of foreign oil. The deficit with China declined slightly while the weak dollar boosted exports to another record high.
The Commerce Department reported that the trade deficit, the gap between imports and exports, jumped by 9.3 percent, to $63.1 billion. The imbalance was much larger than the $60 billion that had been expected.
The increase was driven by a 16.3 percent surge in America's foreign oil bill, which climbed to an all-time high of $34.4 billion as the per barrel price of imported crude reached new records. With oil prices last week touching $100 per barrel, analysts are forecasting higher oil bills in future months.

http://apnews.excite.com/ar...80111/D8U3N4680.html

Consumer Confidence Sinks to Record Low


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Jan 11, 6:38 AM (ET)

By JEANNINE AVERSA

(AP) Jessica Quintana, left, buys a shirt at a Macy's in Denver in this Dec. 19, 2007, file photo....
Full Image

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WASHINGTON (AP) - Consumer confidence fell to an all-time low as worries about jobs, energy bills and home foreclosures darkened people's feelings about the country's economic health and their own financial well-being.
According to the RBC Cash Index, confidence tumbled to a mark of 56.3 in early January. That compares with a reading of 65.9 in December - and a benchmark of 100 - and was the worst since the index began in 2002.
"People are anxious because everything sounds pretty awful these days," said Bill Cheney, chief economist at John Hancock Financial Services Group.
Economists cited several factors for consumers' gloomy outlook:


_Hiring practically stalled in December, pushing the unemployment rate to 5 percent, a two-year high, the government reported last week.
_The meltdown in the housing market has dragged down home values and made people feel less wealthy.
_Harder-to-get credit has made it difficult for some to make big-ticket purchases.
_High energy prices are squeezing wallets and pocketbooks.
_There has been much hand-wringing on Wall Street and Main Street as to whether all these problems will plunge the country into recession.

(AP) Chart shows consumer confidence for the past 13 months; 1c x 3 1/4 inches; 46.5 mm x 82.6 mm
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"Consumers are gloomy. The confidence reading suggests that people believe bad times are upon us," said Richard Yamarone, economist at Argus Research.
Over the past year, consumer confidence has eroded sharply as housing and credit woes took their toll. Last January, confidence stood at a solid 95.3. The index is based on the results of the international polling firm Ipsos.
The White House is exploring a rescue plan, possibly including a tax cut, to aid the ailing economy. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, criticized for not doing enough, pledged on Thursday to keep lowering interest rates. They are expected to drop by as much as one-half of a percentage point when central bank policymakers meet later this month.
The public is giving President Bush low marks for his economic stewardship. His approval rating on the economy dipped slightly to 33 percent in January, from 36 percent in December, according to a separate Associated Press-Ipsos poll. His overall job-approval rating was 34 percent, compared with 36 percent last month.
Individuals' sentiments about the economy and their own financial fortunes over the next six months actually fell into negative territory in early January. This gauge came in at a negative 8.2 percent. That was the weakest showing since right after the Gulf Coast hurricanes in August 2005.

http://apnews.excite.com/ar...80111/D8U3LBP00.html

China's Trade Surplus Surges to Record


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Jan 11, 5:05 AM (ET)

By JOE McDONALD

(AP) Chart shows China's global trade surplus since 1994; 1c x 3 inches; 46.5 mm x 76.2 mm
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BEIJING (AP) - China's trade surplus soared nearly 50 percent in 2007 to a record, despite safety worries about Chinese products and a slowdown in export growth late in the year, according to government data released Friday.
The sharp rise could add to pressure on Beijing to act on currency controls and import barriers, possibly giving ammunition to U.S. lawmakers who are calling for trade sanctions.
The country's annual trade surplus - or the amount exports exceed imports - ballooned to $262.2 billion, up 47.7 percent from 2006, the General Administration of Customs said.
That was below the $300 billion figure forecast by some economists but reflected strong demand for low-cost Chinese exports at a time of concern about the safety of products, ranging from toothpaste and seafood to tires and toys.


"The overall number actually was lower than what we expected, and I suspect it had something to do with, partly, the U.S. story," said Citigroup economist Yiping Huang, referring to recent weaker American retail spending, especially during the key Christmas holiday.

http://apnews.excite.com/ar...80111/D8U3K05O0.html

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Technology is great when it works,
and one big pain in the ass when it doesn't.
Detroit iron rules all the rest are just toys.

Uaana JAN 11, 10:42 AM
Originally posted by 84fiero123:

This needs to be fisked just a little bit.. Steve, remember the papers and AP reporters are trying to sell their stories/papers.. Kinda like if it bleeds it leads mentality in TV

By MARTIN CRUTSINGER First paragraph.. selective journalism at it's finest
A. (Deficit highest level) What kind of report/study or anything is based off of a 14 month timeline?
B. (Trade deficit) jumped by 9.3 percent, to $63.1 billion, larger than the $60 billion expected. (Sounds bad.. Hmm 1 B2 Stealth Bomber costs 2.2 Billion dollars.. Our economy / budget is so large most people cant even grasp it's size.

C. Consumer Confidence Sinks to Record Low: "darkened people's feelings" So some people are actually paying attention to what they're spending and maybe .. Define darkened feelings, where does that fall between "oh snit we're all gonna die and things are so good I can't stop smiling?

D. RBC Cash Index (oddly nothing about cash or money but another confidence tracker. Canadian to boot:
Tumbled to 56.3 in Jan, compare with 65.9 in December -- worst since the index began in 2002.
So almost a custom report/index created post 9/11.. Erasing any and all real historic benchmarks (late60's, 70's, early 80s)

E."People are anxious because everything sounds pretty awful these days," said Bill Cheney, Well what do you expect when most people only read the surface of the crap that AP (articles like these emails is all they see)

F.Economists cited several factors for consumers' gloomy outlook: (this should be fun)

_Hiring practically stalled in December, pushing the unemployment rate to 5 percent, a two-year high, the government reported last week. (This is very standard, end of year accounting probably accounts for about 80% of this. Also nice to note the bar has somehow been raised.. 5% unemployment was once considered "Full employment" )
_The meltdown in the housing market has dragged down home values and made people feel less wealthy. (So they pay less in taxes.. their equity may have dropped.. I'll concede this as adding to the scientific "gloomy outlook")
_Harder-to-get credit has made it difficult for some to make big-ticket purchases. (Sounds like a good thing.. less people living beyond their means.. Less chance of unqualified people defaulting on credit they couldn't afford.. Actually should be a positive indicator for a financial analyst)
_High energy prices are squeezing wallets and pocketbooks. (Concur.. it sucks)
_There has been much hand-wringing on Wall Street and Main Street as to whether all these problems will plunge the country into recession. (Wall Street being full of panicky lemmings.. well if the Fed, or the wrong group makes a rash move.. yes we could experience a short term recession.. Kinda like post Tech Bubble burst, usually most of the bloodshed will be over and done in the first 6-12 months)

(and more comments about people feeling gloomy.. not really defined, not scientific, nothing I would base policy or investing on)

(Bush's fault.. On one hand looking at tax cuts (which real economists know stimulates an economy) to lowering intrest rates. (which are almost too low now and devalue the dollar.. basically just printing more money with less value)

Individuals' sentiments about the economy and their own financial fortunes over the next six months actually fell into negative territory in early January. This gauge came in at a negative 8.2 percent. That was the weakest showing since right after the Gulf Coast hurricanes in August 2005.
(Who? I can take a poll of Ace, JohnS, and a few others and come back with a positive outlook) again.. sloppy reporting.

BEIJING (AP) - China's trade surplus soared nearly 50 percent in 2007 to a record, OH NO! (you have to get past the scary teaser to get to the real information)
"annual trade surplus - or the amount exports exceed imports - ballooned to $262.2 billion, up 47.7 percent from 2006
That was BELOW the $300 billion figure forecast by some economists
and it should have been noted.. but I guess you got another lazy reporter. In that same report:
"China's imports reflected a 20.8 percent annual increase, standing at US$955.8 billion in 2007."

edit
Sorry about that Steve

[This message has been edited by Uaana (edited 01-11-2008).]