The economy, is it good or bad. (Page 142/181)
aceman JAN 09, 12:10 PM
What fact? "MOST PEOPLE" is a fact? No, Billy Boy, it's not.
Phranc JAN 09, 12:15 PM

quote
Originally posted by Red88FF:


No Sh!t, that Christmas thread was the most pathetic read ever, but certainly illustrated the problem for all to see, very sad for all involved. I think it is a mental issue.

At least in 123's case, although I think he is misguided I believe he really does genuinely care about the people involved in the downside of things which motivates his worry and doom scenarios, so though misguided it is almost commendable. Bill on the other hand, his only hope for being on par with anybody else is if everyone else fails. I think he is rooting for a meltdown for these reasons, well that and wanting to watch certain individuals suffer.




For as much grief as I give hobby farmer I can actually respect the man. Bill I don't even bother to pity.

And to keep it on subject:

52 consecutive months of job growth and counting.

No negative growth in the last 32 quarters.

http://www.bloomberg.com/ap...73qWiBrb4&refer=home


quote
an. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. will skirt recession as consumer spending slows without collapsing, a survey of economists showed.

Economic growth will average 1.5 percent in the first six months of 2008, matching the fourth quarter's pace, according to the median estimate of 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News from Jan. 3 to Jan. 8. The rate of expansion would be the weakest since the last nine months of 2001.

1.6% is still 1.6% of positive growth.


And heres a question. Why is it when ever the stocks go down weather it be 1 or 100 points its because of "housing fears" What about when it goes up? Is that housing fears too? When consumer spend is slightly less then the month before its because of "housing fears". Is it really? Every negative aspect is said to be because of "housing fears" but is it really?
84Bill JAN 09, 12:17 PM

quote
Originally posted by aceman:

Well, local PFF Economist, 84fiero123, aka Mr. Bitter, predicted 6 months ago that we're going into a recession. That was 2 quarters ago.

Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet?



Is it possible for you to communicate like an adult instead of a bored child riding in the back seat of a car?

Yes, both he and I were right.
We are looking right at a recession The leading indicators are indicating about three to six months from now it will be in full swing.

We BOTH stated there was a problem and it needed to be addressed then. Now it appears they are talking about addressing the problem. The people who feel the impact of a recession FIRST are those who live hand to mouth. Need I say more?

UPS chief: Recession looms
Shipping services CEO says nation is at a greater risk of recession, and an economic rebound is cloudy

ATLANTA (AP) -- The chief executive of UPS Inc. said Wednesday that the country is at increased risk of falling into a recession and it's not clear when the economy will rebound.

CEO Scott Davis, who took the helm at the world's largest shipping carrier earlier this month, told a Metro Atlanta Chamber of Commerce gathering that overall economic growth is lethargic.
Pyrthian JAN 09, 12:21 PM
well, being we have no valid previous data, everything in this economy is just a guess anyways.

all previous economic data is from when the US was a production powerhouse, the dollar ruled the world, other nations had a fear/respect relationship

none of this applies anymore. china is the powerhouse, the euro rules the world, and islam nations are the ones that are feared, and asian nations are the ones respected. there are endless ways the rug can be pulled out from under us now.

Clinton set us up to fail. Osama's main mission was to knock down our economy. and, ever since 9/11 its been chipped away.
tho - we all must be impressed how well it has held up to all this horrible input. we still stand stronger than most nations on earth. many economies would have fallen just on the airline crunch after 9/11. and, in fact did, just due to OUR not flying. many nations depend on just our vacationing. then - the non-stop fuel/energy crunch. again - this is what hold many nations from even breaking out of 3rd world status. and, now the mortgage crunch. this actually isnt a "real" economic issue tho. it is a social problem.
aceman JAN 09, 12:24 PM

quote
Originally posted by 84Bill:
Yes, both he and I were right.
We are looking right at a recession The leading indicators are indicating about three to six months from now it will MAY/COULD/MIGHT be in full swing.




Let's not forget your word play and catch words in that sentence.

You might have a job in 6 months, Billy. Naaaaaaah that would require ambition and values on your.

You might get more unemployment benefits in 6 months, Billy. (Read that as a possible solution to the economy whoas)

[This message has been edited by aceman (edited 01-09-2008).]

aceman JAN 09, 12:28 PM

quote
Originally posted by Pyrthian:

well, being we have no valid previous data, everything in this economy is just a guess anyways.

all previous economic data is from when the US was a production powerhouse, the dollar ruled the world, other nations had a fear/respect relationship

none of this applies anymore. china is the powerhouse, the euro rules the world, and islam nations are the ones that are feared, and asian nations are the ones respected. there are endless ways the rug can be pulled out from under us now.

Clinton set us up to fail. Osama's main mission was to knock down our economy. and, ever since 9/11 its been chipped away.
tho - we all must be impressed how well it has held up to all this horrible input. we still stand stronger than most nations on earth. many economies would have fallen just on the airline crunch after 9/11. and, in fact did, just due to OUR not flying. many nations depend on just our vacationing. then - the non-stop fuel/energy crunch. again - this is what hold many nations from even breaking out of 3rd world status. and, now the mortgage crunch. this actually isnt a "real" economic issue tho. it is a social problem.



And I can stand beside you 100% on that post
Phranc JAN 09, 12:28 PM

quote
Originally posted by aceman:


Let's not forget your word play and catch words in that sentence.



I think I'll take Bloomberg's word at no recession then an idiot who can't handle his own responsibilities much less understand what it is he reads and a hobby farmer.
84Bill JAN 09, 12:32 PM
Interesting you should mention 9/11

Our economy was stripped down for max efficiency at that time so it had to be finely tuned to keep running properly.
Seems to me after 9/11 the economy began to oscillate slightly, then the hurricanes and insurance problems took a toll, then the fuel rices began to rise, then the mortgage crisis... turned into a housing crisis turned into a job loss and banking crisis.

Seems to be the economy it teetering on the brink and the only thing stopping it is infusions of massive amounts of green life blood which in turn is causing the dollar to collapse in value which in turn means our trade deficit is mounting exponentially.

Call me crazy all day long but this doesnt look very good.... even on paper.
Red88FF JAN 09, 12:35 PM

quote
Originally posted by Phranc:
And heres a question. Why is it when ever the stocks go down weather it be 1 or 100 points its because of "housing fears" What about when it goes up? Is that housing fears too? When consumer spend is slightly less then the month before its because of "housing fears". Is it really? Every negative aspect is said to be because of "housing fears" but is it really?




It is to instill fear. As said many times in these pages our economy and currency is based on confidence. Somewhere in these pages the actual % of subprime loans in the overall marketplace were posted and it is very very small. There are people that can make huge profit or gain political advantage by having an air of instability.

Part of the problem I am sure is due to the deregulation of the banking laws which allow S&L's to invest their holdings in the stockmarket which means that if this market is effected at the same time they do not have the safety net they used to have and it is government bailout time. I did not even know of this until recently. This in a way is not unlike when they took the interest write offs away on interest for real property that is not your primary residence, it made it less desirable to hold as an investment and therefore knocked the value right the hell out of it. Being as the S&L's were holding large amounts of real estate their C&D sheets went backwards overnight.

All the "fear" of recession articles seem to say "if" certain things are not done we "may" slip into a recession.
84Bill JAN 09, 12:44 PM

quote
Originally posted by Red88FF:
It is to instill fear. As said many times in these pages our economy and currency is based on confidence.
All the "fear" of recession articles seem to say "if" certain things are not done we "may" slip into a recession.




The only thing that is keeping the market from crashing is massive infusions of money and interest rate cuts from the fed. These are short term "quick fixes" answers / solutions or responses to "boost consumer confidence" and avert a very big problem.

Fact is without these "quick fixes" the market would have tanked by now. The possibility still looms for another big sell off on the market and you can bet your ass if the drop in the interest rate isnt big enough to boost confidence there will be another sell off.

Banks are looking at another loss in earnings as well.