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| The economy, is it good or bad. (Page 116/181) |
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Pyrthian
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JAN 02, 01:54 PM
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| quote | Originally posted by Formula88:
For the year 2007,
DOW +6.4%
Nasdaq +9.8%
S&P 500 +3.5%
My investments made a conservative 9%. Not earth shaking, but I did beat the DOW for the year.
Analysts are saying we should buckle up and prepare for a bumpy ride because 2008 is going to be much like 2007.
If this is the toilet economy and I'm still making 9%, I can live with that just fine. |
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yes, this is part of the problem with this thread.
even the "great depression" didnt effect MOST people.
"I'm OK - must be your own problem" - I'm fine, so the economies fine.
everything is easy from a small isolated bubble of observation.
but - going back to that 9% - is that counting how much the dollars value fell recently, or just the raw amount? have you looked into buying anything outside the USA recently? prices shot up a good 20-40% depending. many online vendors are switching to the Euro as their base.
the value of the dollar is the single biggest indicator of the economy. the DOW, unemployment, interest rates, etc - are all secondary pointers for specific needs. the value of the dollar is "the big one". $100 today does not come close to buying what $100 bought back in the Clinton years. be at the gas station, the grocery store, home depot, the mall, services, utilities, etc. and thats not very good - especially with the MINIMAL inflation involved.
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Formula88
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JAN 02, 02:02 PM
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| quote | Originally posted by Pyrthian:
yes, this is part of the problem with this thread.
even the "great depression" didnt effect MOST people.
"I'm OK - must be your own problem" - I'm fine, so the economies fine.
everything is easy from a small isolated bubble of observation.
but - going back to that 9% - is that counting how much the dollars value fell recently, or just the raw amount? have you looked into buying anything outside the USA recently? prices shot up a good 20-40% depending. many online vendors are switching to the Euro as their base.
the value of the dollar is the single biggest indicator of the economy. the DOW, unemployment, interest rates, etc - are all secondary pointers for specific needs. the value of the dollar is "the big one". $100 today does not come close to buying what $100 bought back in the Clinton years. be at the gas station, the grocery store, home depot, the mall, services, utilities, etc. and thats not very good - especially with the MINIMAL inflation involved. |
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Valid points, all. My main point was if the economy is in this major meltdown and I can still make a decent return, I'm doing ok.
No, I didn't take into account the dollar's decline. I'll admit that even my annual raises are having a hard time keeping up with inflation and the declining buying power.
I'm not saying everything is rosy and beautiful. I just don't think it's a catastrophe of Biblical proportions. The economy definitely has some problems, and a recession wouldn't surprise me. We've had them before and we'll have them again.
The biggest hit to my budget so far has been fuel and oil prices and the trickle down effects of that.
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Pyrthian
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JAN 02, 02:14 PM
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| quote | Originally posted by Formula88:
....
I'm not saying everything is rosy and beautiful. I just don't think it's a catastrophe of Biblical proportions. The economy definitely has some problems, and a recession wouldn't surprise me. We've had them before and we'll have them again.
The biggest hit to my budget so far has been fuel and oil prices and the trickle down effects of that. |
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yup - thats where most of us are.
it not plagues & crashes & people jumping out windows - its just a little tougher to make a go of it.
and the boom we had just a few years ago just makes it feel that much worse.
the same rules still apply. make you & yours better everyday - and you'll be fine with the rest of us.
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84fiero123
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JAN 02, 03:27 PM
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Fed Concerned About Economic Uncertainty
Wednesday January 2, 2:27 PM EST
WASHINGTON (AP) — Worsening problems in the housing, credit and financial markets drove the Federal Reserve to do an about-face in December and slice its key interest rate yet again with the hope it would help bolster an economy that was losing speed, according to meeting minutes made public Wednesday.
All those problems also greatly increased uncertainty about the economy's outlook, prompting Fed policymakers to keep all their options open about their next move, the minutes of the closed door meeting on Dec. 11 revealed.
"Although members agreed that the stance of policy should be eased, they also recognized that the situation was quite fluid and the economic outlook unusually uncertain," the minutes said. Some members, however, feared that if problems grew worse, "a substantial further easing" of rates would be needed.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and all but one of his colleagues agreed to trim the Fed key rate by one-quarter percentage point to 4.25 percent, a two-year low. The central bank ordered its key rate to be lowered three times last year; the December reduction was most recent one.
The decision to cut rates essentially marked a reversal for the central bank, which had hinted at its previous meeting in October that the Fed's two rate cuts probably would be sufficient to help the economy survive the housing and credit stresses. But the economy's problems intensified after that meeting, forcing the Fed to change its stance.
"Members judged that the softening in the outlook for economic growth warranted an easing of the stance of policy at this meeting," the minutes said. "In view of the further tightening of credit and deterioration of financial market conditions, the stance of monetary policy now appeared to be somewhat restrictive," according to the minutes.
http://money.excite.com/jsp...ews_id=ap-d8ttucb80&------------------
Technology is great when it works,
and one big pain in the ass when it doesn't.
Detroit iron rules all the rest are just toys.
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84Bill
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JAN 02, 05:08 PM
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This can't be good. If I was Chrysler I'd consider selling my cars elsewhere.
DaimlerChrysler gets record fuel economy fine
Mercedes-Benz cars draw $30.3 million penalty for violating fuel economy standards[This message has been edited by 84Bill (edited 01-02-2008).]
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IEatRice
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JAN 02, 05:17 PM
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| quote | Originally posted by Formula88:
If this is the toilet economy and I'm still making 9%, I can live with that just fine. |
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How much have you gained vs the amount the USD has dropped in worth this year? Not so impressive huh.
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84Bill
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JAN 02, 05:27 PM
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Next item up for bids on the leading economic indicator board...
Job Growth 94,000 jobs created. Jan. 4
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84fiero123
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JAN 02, 05:44 PM
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U.S. Manufacturing Sector Contracts
Wednesday January 2, 12:07 PM EST
NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. manufacturing economy unexpectedly contracted in December, ending a streak of 10 consecutive months of growth and sinking to its lowest point in almost five years, a private research group said Wednesday. The decline suggests that the overall economy may be weakening faster than some economists predicted.
The figures are closely watched because a slowdown in factory production can translate to job cuts, which in turn reduces consumer spending — a major component of the economy.
The Institute for Supply Management, a Tempe, Ariz.-based private research group, said its manufacturing index registered 47.7 last month, down 3.1 percentage points from the 50.8 recorded in November. A reading above 50 indicates growth; below that level indicates contraction.
The December results were weaker than the 50.9 expected by analysts polled by Thomson/IFR Markets. Last month was the first that manufacturing has failed to grow since January 2007, when the index was 49.3. It has been four years and eight months since the index was lower than in December; it hit 46.4 in April 2003.
The results sent stocks falling in morning trading as investors worried that the slowdown in manufacturing would spread to the overall economy. The Dow Jones industrials fell more than 160 points by midday.
Meanwhile, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday that construction spending edged up slightly in November as the continued housing slump was offset by record spending on government and business projects. Spending was up 0.1 percent in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.165 trillion. Spending had fallen by 0.4 percent in October.
Many economists believe the U.S. economy grew at an anemic rate of about 1.5 percent in the final quarter of the year and that it could slow to 0.5 percent or less in this first three months this year. A growing number expect a recession because of turmoil in the housing market and continuing tight credit conditions.
The chairman of ISM's manufacturing business survey committee, Norbert Ore, said he expected a couple months of either contraction or very slow growth before a rebound. He said supply executives reported that slower demand was more of a problem than excess inventory. The survey found weakness in new orders and production, which reversed in December after reporting growth in November.
"It's a little too soon to say whether this is a trend of continued contraction or whether it's a soft patch, then things pick up after that," Ore said.
Nomura chief economist David Resler said December results can sometimes be skewed by seasonal variation in orders, so January will be very closely watched to see whether the sector will keep falling.
"I think the troubling thing is not just that it was so low, and it is at a level that is typically breached only in recession, but that it's continuing in a downward trend," Resler said, noting that the index has been dropping since June.
Resler said the weakness in new orders could be a sign of further slowing going forward.
"Up until now, we've been able to console ourselves with the fact that the manufacturing sector has withstood the effects of the downdraft in housing," Resler said. "Now we can't be so confident."
http://money.excite.com/jsp...ews_id=ap-d8ttsai80&
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Technology is great when it works,
and one big pain in the ass when it doesn't.
Detroit iron rules all the rest are just toys.
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Formula88
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JAN 02, 06:18 PM
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| quote | Originally posted by IEatRice:
How much have you gained vs the amount the USD has dropped in worth this year? Not so impressive huh. |
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Asked and answered.
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JazzMan
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JAN 02, 06:35 PM
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. [This message has been edited by JazzMan (edited 12-04-2008).]
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