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| Beware of the 'Blob'.. recent U.S. weather extremes linked to warm ocean West Coast (Page 6/6) |
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olejoedad
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OCT 17, 02:33 PM
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The undersea alien flying saucer base in that area had a problem with its power plant.
Don't worry, there is nothing you can do to change the situation.
Which sentence makes more sense?
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rinselberg
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OCT 17, 03:27 PM
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The BLOB is good news, for those who (would) prefer Jellyfish and Chips, to Fish and Chips.
Warmer is Better.
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rinselberg
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SEP 25, 06:34 AM
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QUOTE
In the fall and winter of 2015-2016 [when I started this Pennock's Topic or thread], the North Pacific experienced an incredible marine heatwave. Nicknamed "the Blob," this catastrophic event brought devastation, including the death of over 1 million birds and a huge loss to marine life. Researchers of a new study in Science now say the occurrence of these events is dramatically linked to the climate crisis.
The team from the University of Bern in Switzerland tracked marine heatwaves around the globe from September 1981 to December 2017 and found a 20 times increase in the occurrence of these heatwaves. The strongest heatwave used to happen once every hundreds to thousands of years, yet as we approach the fateful increase of 1.5°C (2.7°F) warming, heatwaves will begin to occur every 10 to 100 years.
. . .
END QUOTE
That's almost half of this very brief report from IFLScience(.com).
"Most Powerful Marine Heatwaves Like The Blob Are A Consequence Of The Climate Crisis"
Alfredo Carpineti for IFLScience; September 24, 2020.
https://www.iflscience.com/...-the-climate-crisis/
It's based on a new research paper in the professional journal Science.
"High-impact marine heatwaves attributable to human-induced global warming"
https://science.sciencemag....ontent/369/6511/1621
Without a subscription, the full text is not available (like you'd really want it  ) but there is a summary or overview paragraph and a more precisely written Abstract paragraph at that page link.
I don't have a subscription, and as I never grow tired or weary of disclosing, I am not a scientist.
Towards the end of August, KPBS Television (affiliated with San Diego State University) was reporting "Blob-like conditions" just offshore of San Diego.
https://www.kpbs.org/news/2...ure-san-diego-coast/
I'm sure these "Blobs" are easier to take than a hurricane or major tropical storm making landfall, but that's a very short term perspective. As Blobs continue to Blob'ulate at a newly elevated pace and intensity as another symptom of Global Warming--well, it can't be good for the Seafood aisle of your favored fishmonger, grocery or supermarket.
I'm "on it"--so you don't have to be.[This message has been edited by rinselberg (edited 09-25-2020).]
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rinselberg
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JUN 29, 03:31 PM
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"Researchers Finally Tracked Down The Source of The Deadly Pacific Ocean 'Blob'"
New report prompts me to "bump" an old forum thread. Because no horse is too dead to beat. Because "No Blob Left Behind."
It's a brief article, so I won't duplicate any of the text, but it "pulls no punches" when it comes to the effects of planet-warming greenhouse gases. The article presents (briefly) the researchers' "theory of the case", in terms of the exact conditions and events that caused the "Blob", and their assessment that the "Blob" was an unmistakable fingerprint (so to speak) of global warming—and not some merely "rando" short-term climate fluctuation.
Tessa Koumoundouros for ScienceAlert; June 28, 2022.
https://www.sciencealert.co...wave-called-the-blob
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RWDPLZ
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JUN 29, 05:22 PM
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| quote | Originally posted by rinselberg:
"Researchers Finally Tracked Down The Source of The Deadly Pacific Ocean 'Blob'"
New report prompts me to "bump" an old forum thread. Because no horse is too dead to beat. Because "No Blob Left Behind."
It's a brief article, so I won't duplicate any of the text, but it "pulls no punches" when it comes to the effects of planet-warming greenhouse gases. The article presents (briefly) the researchers' "theory of the case", in terms of the exact conditions and events that caused the "Blob", and their assessment that the "Blob" was an unmistakable fingerprint (so to speak) of global warming—and not some merely "rando" short-term climate fluctuation.
Tessa Koumoundouros for ScienceAlert; June 28, 2022.
https://www.sciencealert.co...wave-called-the-blob |
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I wasted five minutes reading the article (that I should be charging you for). They found no conclusive proof or scientific evidence, they just blame global warming.
| quote |
Researchers Finally Tracked Down The Source of The Deadly Pacific Ocean 'Blob'
TESSA KOUMOUNDOUROS
28 JUNE 2022
Like its movie namesake, the horrific marine heatwave nicknamed the Blob destroyed much in its path during its peak, causing mass deaths of fish, birds, and many other marine animals, threatening fishing industries.
Since then, the Blob has at least briefly reared its head twice, hinting at an underlying persistence to its cause.
Now, researchers have identified the systematic warming in the Pacific Ocean that fueled the Blob's rise, and their modeling confirms that – as previously suspected – it is not the result of natural climatic variation.
"Discovery of the long-term warming pool will now provide us with crucial information on the likelihood of such extreme events in the future," says Universität Hamburg atmospheric scientist Armineh Barkhordarian.
Barkhordarian and colleagues detected a persistent pool of warmed water in the Northeast Pacific with increased annual mean temperatures of around 0.4 °C per decade. Summer water temperatures now linger for 37 days longer than 20 years ago.
The team also discovered a decline in low clouds – which usually have a cooling effect on the waters below – over this region during the cold season. This strengthens the atmospheric high-pressure systems above the warm water pool during winters.
Using multiple models, the team calculated that there is a less than a 5 percent chance this high-pressure system has been unusually strengthened during winter because of natural variation.
Their modeling also revealed a less than 1 percent chance the Blob could have formed in 2019 without all the excess greenhouse gasses humans have pumped into our atmosphere. Temperatures reached up to 6 °C above average during this marine heatwave.
These findings are backed by previous research that found marine heatwaves like the Blob are 20 times more likely now because of human-induced climate change.
"This warming pool will continue to increase the water temperature in the future, increasing both the frequency and intensity of local marine heatwaves. The sharp increase in average water temperature is pushing ecosystems to their limits," explains Barkhordarian.
The suffocating, hot blob of water that began in 2013 decimated marine life, killing more than 100 million Pacific cod, thousands of seabirds, and other animals not even accounted for. It also fueled massive toxic algal blooms that shut down fishing industries and may have contributed to a 75 percent decline in whale mother-calf encounters.
The mysterious sea star wasting syndrome also just happened to start nearby at the same time as the appearance of that first Blob.
What's more, these marine heatwaves are by no means confined to the north Pacific. Similar rapid ocean warming events are causing havoc on fisheries and ecosystems from the Atlantic to southern seas.
Beyond their immediate impacts on wildlife, marine heatwaves can also contribute to severe droughts on nearby land.
"More frequent and extreme marine heatwaves are a serious burden for affected ecosystems, '' warns Barkhordarian. "This not only poses a tremendous threat to biodiversity; it can also push these marine ecosystems past a tipping point, after which they can no longer recover."
We still have the power to reduce the impact and severity of these marine heatwaves, and many people around the world, from researchers to activists are fighting to do so.
This research was published in Communications Earth & Environment.
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rinselberg
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JUN 29, 10:12 PM
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| quote | Originally posted by RWDPLZ:
I wasted five minutes reading the article (that I should be charging you for). They found no conclusive proof or scientific evidence, they just blame global warming. |
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What would you like to charge me?
That was based on a much longer and more detailed report that was published as research in a specialists' or professional journal. It's a statistical argument. The research report includes images, and tabulated data and bar charts, along with mathematical equations or formulas, and a list of 77 previous publications that they are referencing. They provide documentation of NOAA and other external databases that they used, and they also document the computer algorithms and software that they used to process numerical data and support their assertions.
I'm too far behind the "8-ball" to want to invest the many minutes that I would need to make any further sense of it, and much of it is clearly "over my head."
The entire research report (not just the abstract) is freely available online. It was just published a few days ago. So, likely, if there are going to be any "takedowns" or rebuttals of this research paper, that is still in the future.
Title
| quote | | Recent marine heatwaves in the North Pacific warming pool can be attributed to rising atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases |
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Abstract
| quote | | Over the last decade, the northeast Pacific experienced marine heatwaves that caused devastating marine ecological impacts with socioeconomic implications. Here we use two different attribution methods and show that forcing by elevated greenhouse gases levels has virtually certainly caused the multi-year persistent 2019–2021 marine heatwave. There is less than 1% chance that the 2019–2021 event with ~3 years duration and 1.6 ∘C intensity could have happened in the absence of greenhouse gases forcing. We further discover that the recent marine heatwaves are co-located with a systematically-forced outstanding warming pool, which we attribute to forcing by elevated greenhouse gases levels and the recent industrial aerosol-load decrease. The here-detected Pacific long-term warming pool is associated with a strengthening ridge of high-pressure system, which has recently emerged from the natural variability of climate system, indicating that they will provide favorable conditions over the northeast Pacific for even more severe marine heatwave events in the future. |
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The complete research report online:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00461-2
According to that summary that I provided from ScienceAlert, this new research report agrees with previous reports from other researchers:
https://www.sciencealert.co...duced-climate-change[This message has been edited by rinselberg (edited 06-29-2022).]
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