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| The Lewis Turning Point economics (Page 5/5) |
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maryjane
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FEB 23, 04:05 PM
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Young people of my era would have got a butt chewin for wearing a cap/hat in the house, especially in front of granny..
"I'll get your good eye boy!!"
Didn't know what that meant when she said it and didn't want to find out.
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pokeyfiero
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MAR 21, 12:35 PM
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| quote | Originally posted by maryjane:
The Lewis Turning Point is an economic theory involving the point at which a demographic (usually a nation's workforce) reaches the point in which the supply of surplus labor from rural areas, for employment in cities, is exhausted.
Much is currently being postulated regarding when China reaches that point (some say it already has) but my specific question is:
When did (or will) the US breach it's own Lewis Turning Point?
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Certainly our Lewis turning point has happened and it is almost certainly something that has been fraught over by the real leaders and directors of this country and many others.
Being an uneductad man I wasn't even aware this had a name.
I'd state that I believe it started in the early 50's (maybe late 40's) after war Innovations rapidly increased our productivity.
Maybe the loss of so many able bodied MEN inspired a need to create labor multipliers.
If in fact our surplus labor has been exhausted for many reasons, labor multipiers have kept us going for decades.
Legal immigration as well as illegal immigration have also kept our service industries going regardles of the aurguments for and against.
I'm not sure what this Lewis turning point is supposed to turn into. I feel it is suggesting a mass decline in production.
I think if that is the cae then it has been thwarted for decades here and probably in the future as we are entering a whole new evolution of labor replacement tools.
Unfortunatly these tools may decide we are not needed at all.
I don't believe we are useless though because we have things machines and software will never have.
The need and desire for icecream, biscuits, and to destroy the status quo.
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BingB
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MAR 22, 08:15 AM
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"Lewis Turning Point" is a complicated economic theory.
When a country transforms from agricultural to industrial the higher wages in the industrial cities also increase consumption. This makes the overall economy grow. When workers make more they buy more and companies make more.. Also when there are fewer agriculture workers wages go up on farms due to supply and demand. Eventually an equilibrium is reached where wages will not go up even if more jobs are shifted from agriculture to industry.
We will probably be hearing more about the Lewis Turning Point regarding AI. At some point there will be an equilibrium reached where profits will not be increased by replacing people with AI. When people are not working or making money they don't buy/consume. And no matter how cheap labor costs are companies still need consumers to purchase their products in order to make money.
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pokeyfiero
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JUN 21, 03:00 PM
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| quote | Originally posted by BingB:
"Lewis Turning Point" is a complicated economic theory.
When a country transforms from agricultural to industrial the higher wages in the industrial cities also increase consumption. This makes the overall economy grow. When workers make more they buy more and companies make more.. Also when there are fewer agriculture workers wages go up on farms due to supply and demand. Eventually an equilibrium is reached where wages will not go up even if more jobs are shifted from agriculture to industry.
We will probably be hearing more about the Lewis Turning Point regarding AI. At some point there will be an equilibrium reached where profits will not be increased by replacing people with AI. When people are not working or making money they don't buy/consume. And no matter how cheap labor costs are companies still need consumers to purchase their products in order to make money. |
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How is AI going to make more profit if the people don't buy for lack of a income? This can't work for very long.
I mean,Isn't that exactly what an economy is?
I think we need another planet and beings to exploit and enslave
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NewDustin
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JUN 26, 03:41 PM
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| quote | Originally posted by BingB:
We will probably be hearing more about the Lewis Turning Point regarding AI. At some point there will be an equilibrium reached where profits will not be increased by replacing people with AI. When people are not working or making money they don't buy/consume. And no matter how cheap labor costs are companies still need consumers to purchase their products in order to make money. |
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I think there are limits to applying that specific of a turning point to something like AI. It's too ubiquitous across industries, and not necessarily focused on replacing people (though it does play a huge role in automation). Technological growth with AI is also too fluid at this point to call any specific point equilibrium anyway, which is kind of necessary to determine when any given 'turning point' is.
You make a very good point about the nature of capitalism and the issue with an eventual shrinking demand for labor. While I tend to favor free-market solutions, I think that's something classic liberal economics doesn't sufficiently address: I have not heard a convincing scenario where the market addresses it autonomously, entrepreneurship is driving the problem faster than it's solving it, and at some point you just don't *need* to replace every job.
I believe there's a reasonable classical liberal argument in favor of universal basic income at that point. Until/unless there is some inverse singularity within the market that addresses this, or some yet-unforeseen bit of entrepreneurship, UBI makes more sense to me than any alternative government intervention. It costs less than trying to administer a growing conventional welfare system, comes with less labor mobility restrictions, an enables those that would be innovating anyway with a better opportunity to do so. I'm open to any alternative ideas though  [This message has been edited by NewDustin (edited 06-28-2024).]
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NewDustin
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JUN 26, 03:44 PM
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| quote | Originally posted by pokeyfiero:
How is AI going to make more profit if the people don't buy for lack of a income? This can't work for very long.
I mean,Isn't that exactly what an economy is?
I think we need another planet and beings to exploit and enslave |
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I think the big impact AI is making/will make on the economy is at the corporate level. Individuals don't need to purchase it for huge B2B technology companies to make gazillions of dollars. As you can imagine, that money does not make it's way down to the average worker equitably, which drives part of the economic feedback loop automation is now involved in.[This message has been edited by NewDustin (edited 06-27-2024).]
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