Total Deaths vs. COVID-19 (Page 4/11)
theBDub OCT 07, 09:13 PM

quote
Originally posted by 82-T/A [At Work]:
For reference... there are 200k people who die EVERY SINGLE YEAR in the state of Texas alone. These deaths are anything from choking on hot dogs to tripping over the newspaper, to gunshots, to whatever. Conceivably, this math isn't hard...

Take a state's rolling year-to-year average of deaths... then when 2020 is over, you take the total number of deaths in that state (which would include /ACTUAL/ COVID deaths). You subtract the 2020 death toll from what would have been the estimated death toll for that year using trend-analysis from year to year. You take that number, and subtract it from the actual death count of 2020... and barring any other unforeseen catastrophes that year, you'd have your total amount.




This is... literally what I did. Look at what I posted... the only difference being 2020 isn’t over, but why does that matter? Deaths aren’t final for over 2 years after the conclusion of a year. Up until then, it’s all provisional, the same data I’m using week over week.
Rickady88GT OCT 07, 11:05 PM

quote
Originally posted by theBDub:


This is... literally what I did. Look at what I posted... the only difference being 2020 isn’t over, but why does that matter? Deaths aren’t final for over 2 years after the conclusion of a year. Up until then, it’s all provisional, the same data I’m using week over week.



I tried to look up the suicide rate "increase" but found nothing that says it actually went up. Just guessing and assumptions.
I know you did not say it did, but I also heard that it has gone up. I am interested in knowing if it is true. On the outside looking in, It makes sense but the data is lacking?
BTW, thanks for the work you put in on this subject
rinselberg OCT 08, 05:09 PM
There's a new website "in town" that may be of interest to the forum members who have invested public messages ("posts") in this forum topic.

USAFacts "Nonpartisan Government Data"
https://usafacts.org

It's backed by Steve and Connie Ballmer.

quote
Steve Ballmer is the former CEO of Microsoft and current chairman of the LA Clippers basketball team. Connie Ballmer is a former marketer with a longstanding interest in the well-being of children. They founded Ballmer Group to make strategic investments in nonprofits to improve economic mobility for US families facing intergenerational poverty. USAFacts grew out of an understanding that government is the largest investor in citizens’ economic mobility, and the public needed access to see how the money is spent and the results.

We do not make grants and we do not advocate for any views of Steve or Connie Ballmer except for one: that facts matter and public data should be available and understandable.


https://usafacts.org/faq/#w...-are-they-doing-this

[This message has been edited by rinselberg (edited 10-08-2020).]

theBDub OCT 08, 08:53 PM

quote
Originally posted by Rickady88GT:


I tried to look up the suicide rate "increase" but found nothing that says it actually went up. Just guessing and assumptions.
I know you did not say it did, but I also heard that it has gone up. I am interested in knowing if it is true. On the outside looking in, It makes sense but the data is lacking?
BTW, thanks for the work you put in on this subject



My data doesn’t break out suicides, in part because many suicides are listed as natural cause for many reasons. I have heard the same. If I use a different source, I have to do a bit of data transformation to make it all line up correctly, so I won’t be adding that to this report.
Rickady88GT OCT 08, 09:25 PM

quote
Originally posted by theBDub:


My data doesn’t break out suicides, in part because many suicides are listed as natural cause for many reasons. I have heard the same. If I use a different source, I have to do a bit of data transformation to make it all line up correctly, so I won’t be adding that to this report.



It's all good, just wondering.
maryjane OCT 08, 11:06 PM

quote
Originally posted by Rickady88GT:


It's all good, just wondering.


I have seen the same "Suicides are over the top since the shutdowns" but evrything I've read showed it is 'reportedly higher" but no stats to corroborate that claim.
There is data showing anxiety is higher, with 'more people having suicidal thoughts' but it has not been shown to translate into higher actual suicide rates. There HAS been a growing trend in the last 10 years of more suicides but the jury is still definitely out regarding whether there is any substantial Covid caused rate increase.

https://www.kxan.com/news/c...e-covid-19-pandemic/

https://factcheckni.org/art...-19-lockdown-period/

August 2020:

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CDC Director Robert Redfield also commented in July on a spike in suicides.

"There has been another cost that we've seen, particularly in high schools. We're seeing, sadly, far greater suicides now than we are deaths from COVID. We're seeing far greater deaths from drug overdose," said Redfield.

But experts also say it is too early to draw conclusions without solid data.

"There isn't any data that I've been able to find or that my colleagues in suicide prevention have been able to find to really back that up," said Julie Cerel, director of the Suicide Prevention and Exposure Laboratory at the University of Kentucky College of Social Work and a former president of the American Association of Suicidology.



https://www.adn.com/nation-...tes-heightens-worry/

[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 10-08-2020).]

Rickady88GT OCT 09, 12:32 AM

quote
Originally posted by maryjane:


https://www.adn.com/nation-...tes-heightens-worry/




Thanks Don.
This is a real concern of mine. I acknowledge the reality of the vid, but how people cope with it and the entirety of this situation is still hazy.
Stay safe out there people.
82-T/A [At Work] OCT 09, 08:52 AM

quote
Originally posted by theBDub:

This is... literally what I did. Look at what I posted... the only difference being 2020 isn’t over, but why does that matter? Deaths aren’t final for over 2 years after the conclusion of a year. Up until then, it’s all provisional, the same data I’m using week over week.



Unless I'm misreading your post, you're obviously far more concerned about this than I am. I'm not willing to invest the time in this (reading your article) because I quite frankly don't really care. The deaths are each sad in their own right, but basic logic from all variables clearly shows this has been dramatically manipulated for political gain... which I suspect is also why you're so interested in it as well.



quote
Originally posted by Rickady88GT:

I tried to look up the suicide rate "increase" but found nothing that says it actually went up. Just guessing and assumptions.
I know you did not say it did, but I also heard that it has gone up. I am interested in knowing if it is true. On the outside looking in, It makes sense but the data is lacking?
BTW, thanks for the work you put in on this subject




Suicides have been going up every year, which many people contribute to pressures that are exasperated through social media. When times are tough, and individuals are in a difficult situation, social media can ultimately make people feel helpless in their own lives, when really, most of the things they would otherwise worry about are outside of their control anyway and wouldn't have even cared about 15-20 years ago anyway.

But there were several articles I posted in one of the other COVID threads. Suicides have gone up 30% in the military, and in another study it had doubled. There was one that suggested it had gone up over 600%, but I'm not sure I agree with the methodology. They usually link death by drug overdose as a suicide and while that is likely often mental-illness related (self medicating), it doesn't necessarily suggest the intent was death.

Since COVID started, I've now had 8 colleagues / friends kill themselves, so this hits me personally. Prior to that, I'd seen maybe 1 or 2 per year. Not a scientific study of course, and one of them took out his entire family of 4 kids with the wife helping. It was horrible. Never the less, the only bright spot in this election is if Biden DOES win, the media will immediately stop talking about the death toll, and everything in the news will magically become positive almost overnight, because that's how the media slants... so we can at least be done with "the world is ending" every single day from the main stream media.
maryjane OCT 09, 01:08 PM
Peacetime military suicides have genrally risen ever since the end of WW2.

WASHINGTON – The suicide rate among active-duty troops increased in 2019, according to a Pentagon report released Thursday, and Army officials worry that stress caused by the COVID-19 pandemic may push figures higher in 2020.

Last year, the rate of suicide among active-duty troops was 25.9 per 100,000 troops, according to the Pentagon's annual report on suicide. The rate was 24.9 per 100,000 in 2018, and 21.9 per 100,000 in 2017. The rate has showed a steady increase from 2014, when the rate was 18.5 per 100,000 service members. The suicide rates in the National Guard and reserve components of the military remained stable last year, according to the report.

In all, 498 troops died by suicide in 2019.

Among all Americans, the suicide rate has increased 35% over the past 20 years, according to the National Institute of Mental Health. The suicide rate among all Americans was 14.2 per 100,000 in 2018, but the Pentagon's report states that after controlling for differences in age, suicide rates among troops are roughly equivalent or lower than the U.S. population.
theBDub OCT 09, 10:01 PM

quote
Originally posted by 82-T/A [At Work]:

Unless I'm misreading your post, you're obviously far more concerned about this than I am. I'm not willing to invest the time in this (reading your article) because I quite frankly don't really care. The deaths are each sad in their own right, but basic logic from all variables clearly shows this has been dramatically manipulated for political gain... which I suspect is also why you're so interested in it as well.




It’s not an article lol it’s a Power BI report. Just click the link. You’ve spent far more time typing than the <30 seconds it would take to look at the visuals lol.

I made the report because many people believe as you do—that the deaths are exaggerated. There is a logical explanation for why you feel that way, including videos you’ve linked to me.

But when you look at the actual data of all deaths, regardless of any cause, just all deaths, it shows that the reported COVID-19 deaths are not only directionally correct, but possibly understated. In effect, you are wrong. It’s definitely confusing to sift through all of the media reports, but the deaths are truly and actually (mostly) as stated.