Get ready, the 2nd big sell off in 11 years is now underway (Page 3/3) ls3mach JUL 05, 06:48 PM quote Originally posted by rinselberg: "This Old Herd" The possibilities are likely almost endless. Great, now you've given Todd his prefect show 2.5 JUL 08, 09:44 AM So as far as preparing, we can expect beef prices to go up for real reasons? maryjane JUL 08, 12:53 PM quote Originally posted by 2.5: So as far as preparing, we can expect beef prices to go up for real reasons? IF, you consider processor margins to be 'real reasons' . Historically, retail beef prices fall during the last part of a selloff, as the processor's own and contracted feedlots fill up and create a glut of cattle awaiting slaughter. But both USDA and private industry maintain a huge frozen boxed beef storage system accross the country and it's only when that capacity is reached, that retail prices start to fall. This happened in mid-late 2012 after the horrendous 2011 selloff and processors had no choice but to drop their processing volume, sell the frozen beef quickly at low margins or shut down processing plants. They dropped their margins and sold off a significant amount of frozen stored beef resluting in lower or at least stagnated retail beef prices for the consumer. As the drought eased in early-mid 2012, there was a shortage of beef cattle because it takes at least 14 momnths to grow a producing cow from birth to the 1st replacement heifer, and another 6-7 monts for those steered calves to go to market. As that happened, 2014 had record live cattle prices for the farmer/rancher. $350-$400/100 lbs prices (CWT) . $3.50-$4.00 lb. Retail prices then went back up. Since the processors also got behind during the pandemic years of 2020-2021 due to plant shutdowns, we are still a little behind, even tho consumer demand for beef has increased in 2022. IOW, there will be a lag in price changes < or > until the processors are over burdened by swellingfeedlot numbers again. maryjane JUL 08, 12:56 PM The quantity of live beef animals in feedlots is kept track of by several entities including USDA. It's called COF. Cattle on feed..as opposed to cattle on pasture. The May COF report, released on May 20, 2022, estimates cattle on feed as of May 1, 2022 to be 12 million head. This is up 2% from a year ago. The total number of cattle placed in feedlots is 1.81 million head, down 1% from last year. 82-T/A [At Work] JUL 10, 04:05 PM quote Originally posted by ls3mach: Great, now you've given Todd his prefect show Hahah... I wouldn't make much of a farmer or cattle rancher. BUT... Rinse's idea could be the name of a car show that takes place on a farm... e.g., a person with a huge barn that buys, restores, and sells old cars next to an old cow pasture. maryjane JUL 13, 08:33 AM Lots of cattle coming to town in Texas. Many of you have seen the video of the line waiting to unload at Emory Saturday. They had 3495 head from 527 consignors Saturday compared to 2113 head from 368 consignors on June 25 (before the 4th​ of July). Further west, yesterday the sale at Graham had 4442 head that included 1215 cows. The sale at Decatur had 3180 head. Today, here in East Texas, Mt. Pleasant had 1770 and Emory had 1769 at their Tuesday sale. Many producers are past culling the bottom end and are bring their good cows. Please pray for rain. maryjane JUL 13, 12:42 PM 2.5 JUL 13, 02:12 PM quote Originally posted by maryjane: Think this drought will compound food shortages this year or next? maryjane JUL 13, 11:16 PM Neither. Not significantly anyway, in spite of all the "sky is falling' rhetoric coming out of social media bubbas. Prices? Yes maryjane JUL 18, 02:35 PM and, it begins.. posted on a (near Ft Worth Tx) salebarn website late last week.