The Lewis Turning Point economics (Page 3/5)
2.5 FEB 10, 01:53 PM

quote
Originally posted by maryjane:


I find it more than a little curious why so much effort is being directed at China, India, South and Central America's LTP but virtually nothing written or talked about our own.



Distraction perhaps. I mean while we borrow ourselves into a grave.
2.5 FEB 10, 01:56 PM

quote
Originally posted by maryjane:


Do you have to post a video in every thread you enter?

Do you just not have the capability to put things in your own words, from thoughts in your own brain?

Do I need to find a video to explain the statement for you that I previously posted??
"It has zero to do with the current labor situation in either Canada or the US.



-I could

-As I mentioned before, I work. Its easier for me to click twice than type 10k words.

-Am I only talking to you?
maryjane FEB 10, 02:03 PM
except more often than not, it takes 20 minutes or more to watch in a video what could be said in a few paragraphs or a few lines.
Your only concern is you. Period.

If you have a point to make, make it.
I'm not much on relying on other people in some video to make my point for me.
Any 5th grader can do that and it would be abject laziness on my part.
2.5 FEB 10, 02:39 PM

quote
Originally posted by maryjane:

except more often than not, it takes 20 minutes or more to watch in a video what could be said in a few paragraphs or a few lines.
Your only concern is you. Period.

If you have a point to make, make it.
I'm not much on relying on other people in some video to make my point for me.
Any 5th grader can do that and it would be abject laziness on my part.



I stated my reason. You have lots of opinions , as do we all. Period.

If you had posted a vid (or even said) what your point was in the opening post of this thread I still wouldnt be waiting for the end of the riddle, or question with known details left out on purpose. Its all perspective.

If like you said, that video was about something you already stated didnt matter to your outcome...you had really no reason to worry about it.

Its all perspective. There are probably some other people who can click play and keep working and get alot of good info besides me. If they all cant well, its unfortunate that it is so hard for them to get my point. If one cared alot they could just click and look out the window and sip coffee while they listen. Some folks enjoy that. You'd rather read, as if there is somehow more intelligence in a typed letter, thats your choice.

[This message has been edited by 2.5 (edited 02-10-2022).]

sourmash FEB 10, 03:56 PM
My answer is the mid point of the Boomer's 30 year working career. Which I viewed as the early to mid 80s when most women had moved into the work place.
maryjane FEB 10, 10:05 PM
We had already begun our transit to a Service based economy in the late 60s. US manufacturing peaked in the late 70s, (according to Dept of Labor 1979) and Service segment accelerated again after the recessions of the 80s. So we certainly should have reached Lewis a good bit prior to the 1990s tech boom, which itself was service segment.


Urbanization is the primary measure of LTP. The move from rural to citiy life. Once the transition from agragrian and rural life to urbanization has peaked, we've reached LTP. From what I can tell, that began in earnest much earlier than 50 years ago. The late 1800s thru 1930 showed a large sudden movement to urban areas but the slower larger movement took a lot longer.
Hank is Here FEB 10, 10:37 PM
Maybe I have too simplistic view but I see the current labor shortage due to lack of immigration. I think the peak rural to urban labor shift occured years ago for the US but in the past several decades we have been able to supplement these low wage service jobs with immigrants (legal and moreso illegal).

The plandemic has really slowed the influx of working age immigrants(from areas other than the southern boarder.
82-T/A [At Work] FEB 11, 08:06 AM

quote
Originally posted by maryjane:

The US, for the most part, is a Service oriented economy and we have been for some time. Historically, that transition makes up about 50% of the turning point. (Domestic agriculture and mining are not considered a Service because both are producing a commercially viable domestic use/exportable product)



They certainly are... but define "service." I know you don't JUST mean McDonalds, Stanley Steamer, etc... but the United States is also HEAVY in research and development. You could say we have an R&D economy as well.

Up until a few years ago, the United States was the global leader in R&D. Now, I am not a PhD myself, but I work with more technical PhDs than not. One of the things about being a PhD is that you are expected to write research paper, and consistently be apart of research and innovation in your field. That's one of the primary reasons why people get PhDs. Right or wrong, you gain "value" by publishing research papers. I want you to look at this chart:




China has surpassed us.

Now, there's a little secret here... a large number of the papers published by China and India are actually garbage. I don't say that as some kind of faux American pride, but I know factually that many PhD candidates and graduates write and publish papers, and peer review them, for things that are basically bogus, and scientifically wrong. China does this, and India does this. China does this collectively because it was a GOAL of theirs to beat the United States in published studies. For India, it was more individually personal, and not part of some collective goal or anything like that.

Never the less, the United States still leads in actual innovation and development. Espionage is significant with China, just as it was with Russia back in the day.

While we may be a "service" economy, and that includes things like SaaS and other technical services as well as self-serving services, the reality is that this money isn't just coming from no where, it comes from the innovations and technology that we develop.


A lot of people have this belief that China will somehow collapse soon, as did the USSR... but I do not believe this. I'm not an economist, but China's economy is dramatically different from that of the old USSR. China's economy is booming, and their infrastructure is new. They also still have as many poor people living out in the sticks as we have a total population. I don't believe for a second that China will collapse.

I don't think the future looks good, where America continues to be the world power... and it kills me to say that.



quote
Originally posted by maryjane:
A question. I rarely ask a question for no reason. I asked, because I do not know the answer specifically but I do know it is, among economists, all but taboo to even talk about (the US turning point) but there are huge data points, studies, papers and discussions involving the time period (past and future) that other nations will (or already have) seen it.



You've come to the right place!!!



quote
Originally posted by maryjane:
I find it more than a little curious why so much effort is being directed at China, India, South and Central America's LTP but virtually nothing written or talked about our own.

Much is being postulated that once China reaches it's LTP, (assuming it hasn't already) that their gangbusters economy will take a huge hit, but if the US and China are currently #1 & #2 in economics globally, and the US reached their LTP decades ago, then just how much of a global hit would China be expected to get?




I suspect you'll snap at me and say what I said above has nothing to do with what you are talking about, but I disagree... I think it does.
maryjane FEB 11, 09:33 AM

quote
A lot of people have this belief that China will somehow collapse soon, as did the USSR... but I do not believe this. I'm not an economist, but China's economy is dramatically different from that of the old USSR. China's economy is booming, and their infrastructure is new. They also still have as many poor people living out in the sticks as we have a total population. I don't believe for a second that China will collapse.



I don't think they will either, any more than we did when we (and other developed nations) reached LTP.
It's not just their economy that is different from USSR. Their central govt and central finance system is different, much much different.
So, is the Asian (specifically but not only the Chinese) culture. People believe their #1 asset is their 1 billion population. It isn't. It's their patience. We look a few years down the road. They look decades. We look a decade ahead. They are looking a century. It took the Mongols (Khan dynasties) nearly 2 centuries to unite China. They are used to playing the long game.
They certainly are not hesitant to 'seize the moment' but they are equally at ease waiting for the exact precise decade too.

[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 02-11-2022).]

Wichita FEB 11, 09:46 AM
Aging demographics will cause a much more serious issue than the Lewis Turning Point.

China and most of all Asia, especially Japan have much older people than younger people to replace them. They will go in population decline.

Europe is especially bad.

Only a few areas of the world have a decent demography. India being one of them, so look for India to be a big world stage player this century.

North America has it to an extent, because of Mexico. A few South American countries and Africa is in good demography shape.