Beware of the 'Blob'.. recent U.S. weather extremes linked to warm ocean West Coast (Page 2/6)
Cheever3000 APR 14, 09:37 PM

quote
Originally posted by rinselberg:

"... if it persists for a third year, then we'll know something really unusual is going on."




After 3 years, it will become usual not unusual.
bigformula APR 14, 10:36 PM

quote
Originally posted by rinselberg:

The weather pattern, known as the North Pacific Mode, is what's causing the Pacific's warm blob as well.

Is global climate change playing a role in the rise of the North Pacific Mode?




so is it a weather pattern or is it climate? I find it funny you use both. A blob is not climate. this is a weather event. if it lasts for 1000 years then yea I can say its climate then. weather events are NOT climate.

rinselberg APR 15, 01:04 AM
RE: bigformula

I didn't say anything, except to post what these two are reported to have said on the NBC News site.
  • Nick Bond, a climate scientist at the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean at the University of Washington
  • Dennis Hartmann, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Washington
http://www.nbcnews.com/scie...m-blob-water-n338766

There is a chart or plot that accompanies the NBC News report with this caption:

This chart shows the pattern of anomalously warm temperatures off the coast of Washington and Oregon in April 2014, as compared with sea surface temperatures from 1981 to 2010.

My personal opinion is that this "blob" event could be a signature of global warming, which I interpret as a rising trend in temperatures all around the world, as identified by data analyses that filter out short term (weather) changes and cyclical patterns such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. This North Pacific Mode (referenced in the NBC News report), which they say is what is causing this particular "blob", could fall into the short term or cyclical category. But if this "blob" of anomalously warm surface water just offshore of Washington and Oregon is seen to persist, or reoccur in 2016 and subsequent years, it begins to look more like a signature of global warming.

[This message has been edited by rinselberg (edited 04-15-2015).]

rinselberg APR 15, 01:33 AM
Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation Explains Global Warming "Hiatus" Since 2000
Study reinforces finding that decades-long climate cycle is behind seeming flatlining of global surface air temperatures
April 14, 2015
Scripps Institution of Oceanography

Atmospheric greenhouse gases have continued to rise during recent years, yet global mean surface temperature has shown no clear warming since about 2000. This slowdown in surface warming, often referred to as the global warming “hiatus,” is in sharp contrast to model simulations, which on average show strong warming since 2000.

A National Science Foundation-supported study co-authored by Shang-Ping Xie, a climate scientist at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, attributes nearly the entire difference between observations and simulations to a climate cycle known as the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The cycle is similar to the more commonly known El Niño Southern Oscillation but significantly longer in duration, reversing phases over the course of decades. The study found that the behavior of the IPO explains essentially all the difference between observed and model-simulated global warming rates on decadal time scales since 1920, and in particular the warming hiatus since year 2000. . . .


Need it all? Get it all:
https://scripps.ucsd.edu/ne...-warming-hiatus-2000

[This message has been edited by rinselberg (edited 04-15-2015).]

WBailey1041 APR 16, 10:55 AM
I'm slow so please help me out here. The temperature on earth has not risen since 2000 but we're still experiencing global warming or climate change?

?
FieroReinke APR 16, 12:17 PM
If they have known about these so called Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillations, and claim they are decade long and therefore have known about them for quite some time, why arent these included in their simulations?
rinselberg APR 16, 12:43 PM
Argo is a network of sensors that provides temperature data from the oceans, down to as far as 6000 feet below the surface.

Argo data has prompted various researchers to suspect that heat is being stored or sequestered below the surface of large expanses of ocean.

They believe that this is being caused by a strengthening of the trade winds over the last 20 years.

Their expectations are that this trend of increasing trade winds will decline and reverse, and that the heat energy that is currently trapped within this subsurface ocean reservoir will reappear in the form of higher surface air temperatures across the land masses, where people will be able to more directly "feel the heat" and experience the extra "BTUs" that they have been missing out on, because of these persistent trade wind patterns.


Here's an abstract of a report that was published in Nature Climate Change just over a year ago; there are more recent reports along the same lines:

"Despite ongoing increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases, the Earth’s global average surface air temperature has remained more or less steady since 2001. A variety of mechanisms have been proposed to account for this slowdown in surface warming. A key component of the global hiatus that has been identified is cool eastern Pacific sea surface temperature, but it is unclear how the ocean has remained relatively cool there in spite of ongoing increases in radiative forcing.

Here we show that a pronounced strengthening in Pacific trade winds over the past two decades—unprecedented in observations [and] reanalysis data and not captured by climate models—is sufficient to account for the cooling of the tropical Pacific and a substantial slowdown in surface warming through increased subsurface ocean heat uptake. The extra uptake has come about through increased subduction in the Pacific shallow overturning cells, enhancing heat convergence in the equatorial thermocline. At the same time, the accelerated trade winds have increased equatorial upwelling in the central and eastern Pacific, lowering sea surface temperature there, which drives further cooling in other regions. The net effect of these anomalous winds is a cooling in the 2012 global average surface air temperature of 0.1–0.2◦C, which can account for much of the hiatus in surface warming observed since 2001.

This hiatus [slowdown of surface air temperature warming] could persist for much of the present decade if the trade wind trends continue, however rapid warming is expected to resume once the anomalous wind trends abate."

Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus
http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2106.epdf


From 8 days ago, a somewhat longer than average news media report using more generic language:
http://www.abc.net.au/envir...15/04/08/4209225.htm

[This message has been edited by rinselberg (edited 04-16-2015).]

Stubby79 APR 16, 01:06 PM
Probably just where our sewer comes out.
bigformula APR 16, 02:50 PM

quote
Originally posted by WBailey1041:

I'm slow so please help me out here. The temperature on earth has not risen since 2000 but we're still experiencing global warming or climate change?

?



even though the evidence is proof the planet has not gotten warmer, these radicals keep trying to convince you it is getting warmer. Now rinselberg is trying to convince you that a small "blob" off the coast of two states is climate change. Yet when the northeast gets cold and people claim global warming is false, rinaelberg is on here stating that climate is bigger than a couple states in the northeast. Yet its ok for him to use a mere two states of slightly warmer water to claim its climate change that effects the whole planet. The radical moves the goalposts constantly to support his radical ideology

[This message has been edited by bigformula (edited 04-16-2015).]

Tony Kania APR 16, 03:11 PM
Leave the damn goal posts where they are!!!