Why Does Texas Have Its Own Power Grid? (Page 13/17)
blackrams FEB 24, 07:07 AM
Makes me wonder. Just how and why any of the board got their seats.

Not suggesting the qualifications of the board members wasn't needed but, the diversity of the experts makes me wonder.

There is no doubt that who you know helps you get ahead and into different things. Although, what you know should be more important. Interesting for sure.

Rams
maryjane FEB 24, 08:28 AM

quote
Originally posted by blackrams:

Makes me wonder. Just how and why any of the board got their seats.

Not suggesting the qualifications of the board members wasn't needed but, the diversity of the experts makes me wonder.

There is no doubt that who you know helps you get ahead and into different things. Although, what you know should be more important. Interesting for sure.

Rams



No doubt.
maryjane FEB 24, 11:58 AM

quote
Originally posted by sourmash:

Maybe try buying a piece of flood plain land and you could get that feeling of superiority too?


The only flood that has really adversely affected me was Hurricane Harvey, 2017.
It was unprecedented and no where in the US has or can plan for a once in 1000 yr flood much less a once in a 200,000 or 500,000 year flod.

Hurricane Harvey may have dumped an unprecedented level of water, one expected to be seen just once every 500,000 years, in some areas of Southeast Texas, according to a new report.

The 24-hour measures of rain falling during Hurricane Harvey were unprecedented and exceeded the rate predicted to occur once every 1,000 years, researchers found. And the flood levels seen in some isolated areas of Houston over a five-day period exceeded those predicted to occur twice in a million years, a new analysis found. In some parts of Texas, more than 51 inches (130 centimeters) fell over the five-day period, the report found.

A useful way of examining just how extreme this event was is to view it from a frequency perspective using Average Recurrence Intervals (ARIs). Harvey is interesting in that for a 24-hour period, several areas experienced 24-hour rains that occur every 1,000+ years on average. However, longer duration rainfalls were even rarer; MetStat examined ARIs for longer durations over the course of 72- and 120-hours using USGS Report 98-4044 (Asquith 1998) to get a handle on the true recurrence interval of this rainfall event over Houston.

Figures 5 and 6 show a 24-hour ARI and a 120-hour ARI, where the 24-hour shows a maximum recurrence interval of more than 1,000 years or a 0.1% chance of occurring in any given year, whereas the 120-hour shows localized maximum recurrence intervals of over 500,000 years or a 0.0002% chance of occurring in any given year. It should be noted that the annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) provided in this graphic are estimated using GEV parameters from USGS Report 98-4044 (Asquith 1998). We recognize that these estimates contain considerable uncertainty, but represent the 5-day (120-hour) precipitation-frequency data publicly available at present. A more robust precipitation-frequency analysis by storm type/mechanism is required to more accurately place this event into proper historical/probabilistic perspective. However, this event did approach and exceed the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP), which often represents precipitation this rare from a probability perspective, at certain durations and area sizes.

A new analysis from the University of Wisconsin’s Space Science and Engineering Center has determined that Harvey is a 1-in-1,000-year flood event that has overwhelmed an enormous section of Southeast Texas equivalent in size to New Jersey.

There is nothing in the historical record that rivals this, according to Shane Hubbard, the Wisconsin researcher who made and mapped this calculation. “In looking at many of these events [in the United States], I’ve never seen anything of this magnitude or size,” he said. “This is something that hasn’t happened in our modern era of observations. A 1,000-year flood event, as its name implies, is exceptionally rare. It signifies just a 0.1 percent chance of such an event happening in any given year. “Or, a better way to think about it is that 99.9 percent of the time, such an event will never happen,” Hubbard said.

Apart from Harvey, there’s simply no record of a 1,000-year event occupying so much real estate.


The Space Science and Engineering Center at the University of Wisconsin at Madison determined that many areas of Southeast Texas have received rain that is expected to come around only once every 1,000 years (or having a 0.1 percent probability of occurrence), assuming a stationary climate.

https://www.weather.gov/med...ts/Harvey17/USGS.pdf
http://metstat.com/hurrican...d-surrounding-areas/
blackrams MAR 02, 04:57 AM
Texas utility files for bankruptcy after $2.1 bn power bill

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/texas-utility-files-for-bankruptcy-after-dollar21-bn-power-bill/ar-BB1e8FTE?ocid=msedgntp

The largest electricity co-operative in Texas has filed for bankruptcy protection after it received a $2.1 billion bill from the state's grid operator following last month's winter storm that left millions without power.

Bitterly cold weather in mid-February left millions without electricity across Texas as the Arctic conditions overwhelmed local utility companies ill-prepared for such weather.

Brazos Electric Power Cooperative, which supplies 16 co-op members serving more than 1.5 million Texans, said it filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on Monday after receiving "excessively high invoices" from the state grid operator Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

According to court filings, Brazos said it was hit with invoices from ERCOT totaling more than $2.1 billion, with payment required within days.

Brazos said the bill for the seven-day "black swan" winter event was nearly three times its total power cost of $774 million for the whole of 2020.

"As the month of February 2021 began, the notion that a financially stable cooperative such as Brazos Electric would end the month preparing for bankruptcy was unfathomable," executive vice president and general manager Clifton Karnei said in a court filing.

He said during the storm the price for wholesale electricity was set at the maximum price of $9,000 per megawatt hour for more than four straight days and ERCOT imposed other ancillary fees totaling more than $25,000 per MWh.

"The consequences of these prices were devastating."

ERCOT has come under fire from customers and politicians over its apparent failure to prepare for the cold weather and soaring bills due to the temporary massive spike in the energy market.

Residential customers who signed for variable-rate plans have reported receiving electric bills as high as $16,000.

Brazos said it filed for bankruptcy protection as "it cannot and will not foist this catastrophic financial event on its members and those consumers."

"Let me emphasize that this action by Brazos Electric was necessary to protect its member cooperatives and their more than 1.5 million retail members from unaffordable electric bills," Karnei said in a press release.

Texas is the only state in the continental US to have its own independent power grid, meaning it was cut off when the weather hit.

State governor Greg Abbott has ordered an investigation into ERCOT, and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has also said it will probe the factors behind the power outages.

This should be interesting to watch from a distance......

Rams

[This message has been edited by blackrams (edited 03-02-2021).]

maryjane MAR 02, 08:26 AM

quote
ERCOT has come under fire from customers and politicians over its apparent failure to prepare for the cold weather and soaring bills due to the temporary massive spike in the energy market.


"apparent'

Now that the internet has provided you with Bill Gate's/Microsoft News' version, maybe you can do a bit of real research and find the real facts behind the grid shutdown.
sourmash MAR 02, 08:58 AM

quote
Originally posted by maryjane:

The only flood that has really adversely affected me was Hurricane Harvey, 2017.
It was unprecedented and no where in the US has or can plan for a once in 1000 yr flood much less a once in a 200,000 or 500,000 year flod.



FEMA and the Army Corp of Engs doesn't label 1000 year flood as floodplain.
You're in a floodplain if you're in a 100 year and 500 year zones. The elevation difference between 100 and 500 elevations are very similar. And if you live in a water shed on a system of dams or a hydro-electric system that can happen at the turn a switch in the control room.
maryjane MAR 02, 12:53 PM

quote
Originally posted by sourmash:


FEMA and the Army Corp of Engs doesn't label 1000 year flood as floodplain.
You're in a floodplain if you're in a 100 year and 500 year zones. The elevation difference between 100 and 500 elevations are very similar. And if you live in a water shed on a system of dams or a hydro-electric system that can happen at the turn a switch in the control room.




Only, because a flood of that magnitude is such an unprecedented event. FEMA designated 'flood plains' are a joke.
Of the estimated 204,000 Harris County homes and apartments (not including business) damaged or destroyed by Harvey, the majority were outside a state or federally designated flood zone.


quote
Hurricane Harvey damaged more than 204,000 homes and apartment buildings in Harris County, almost three-quarters of them outside the federally regulated 100-year flood plain, leaving tens of thousands of homeowners uninsured and unprepared.

The new details come from the most extensive disclosure of flood data yet released by city and county officials. The numbers follow a pattern: More than 55 percent of the homes damaged during the Tax Day storm in 2016 sat outside the 500-year flood plain, as did more than one-third of those during the Memorial Day floods in 2015.



In the larger area known as East Texas, over 570,000 homes (again, not including business structures) were inspected by FEMA post Harvey. More than 1/2 were located outside a designated FEMA flood zone.

Businesses included, the number of damaged or destroyed structures exceeded 600,000. Again, more than 1/2 were outside a designated flood zone.
There's a reason it was called 'unprecedented'.

[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 03-02-2021).]

cliffw MAR 02, 01:17 PM

quote
Originally posted by sourmash:
FEMA and the Army Corp of Engs doesn't label 1000 year flood as floodplain.



Who ?


quote
Originally posted by sourmash:
The elevation difference between 100 and 500 elevations are very similar. And if you live in a water shed on a system of dams or a hydro-electric system that can happen at the turn a switch in the control room.



Really ? Do you mean zhit happens. That stinks.
sourmash MAR 02, 04:06 PM

quote
Originally posted by maryjane:


In the larger area known as East Texas, over 570,000 homes (again, not including business structures) were inspected by FEMA post Harvey. More than 1/2 were located outside a designated FEMA flood zone.

Businesses included, the number of damaged or destroyed structures exceeded 600,000. Again, more than 1/2 were outside a designated flood zone.
There's a reason it was called 'unprecedented'.




"Floodplain" is a specific definition or a specific overlay area. There are "back water" locations, which is also a specific definition in the system. Back water can be identical to elevations of a "floodplain". Also as you get closer to sea level in flatter ground, exposure area increases. A storm system problem can cause flooding outside the "FLOODPLAIN". Cities see this happen in 50 year storms. But in general topography and water system elevations are going to dictate 100 and 500 year levels.

You may not be in a floodplain, but in a back water. The difference can mean different things to permitting for development. Within the system there are also streams, named streams and blue line streams. All have differing levels of regulatory restraints for development. Doesn't make a diff to the water in them.

If you're buying a property in the 100 and 500 year elevations you want the buyer to hear FLOODPLAIN as you negotiate. If you're selling, you don't call it that unless it is and have to say.
cliffw MAR 06, 06:47 AM
‘It’s just nearly impossible to unscramble this sort of egg’: Texas regulator won’t overturn ERCOT’s $16 billion overcharge

Houston, we have a problem !

ERCOT. Energy Reliability Council Of Texas.

Of which energy was not reliable, per there directives ? Then they can price gouge on something they don't even produce ?

My link is a damning article.


quote

Potomac Economics, a Virginia-based firm that’s paid by the State of Texas to provide an arm’s-length assessment of the Texas power grid ...

According to Potomac, real-time market costs on the Texas grid totaled about $47 billion from Feb. 14-19 because of power outages during the crisis and the sky-high wholesale prices — compared with about $10 billion in real-time market costs for all of 2020.



WTF ?