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Total Deaths vs. COVID-19 by theBDub
Started on: 10-05-2020 10:12 AM
Replies: 96 (1106 views)
Last post by: theBDub on 10-19-2020 04:51 PM
gtjoe
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Report this Post10-09-2020 11:19 PM Click Here to See the Profile for gtjoeSend a Private Message to gtjoeEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by theBDub:


This is... literally what I did. Look at what I posted... the only difference being 2020 isn’t over, but why does that matter? Deaths aren’t final for over 2 years after the conclusion of a year. Up until then, it’s all provisional, the same data I’m using week over week.

deaths above expected is a long term statistic used to look at a historical event to estimate how many deaths it caused. It really only works when looking back at an event that is over. To give you an example from your spreadsheet if you look at the first 16 weeks the 2020 excess deaths are 84,253. If you extrapolate that over an entire year it would predict 1,095,289 excess deaths for the year. The current number extrapolated over the entire year would be 299,154. If the theory that it many of the deaths were only accelerated by a few months is true you wont know until later because the death rate after the pandemic is over will be lower than expected.

also of note is that the baseline is on a general upward trajectory. If you only use the first three years of your chart the deaths above expected are 268,463 and if you use only the most recent 3 years its 180,269 which is a pretty significant difference.

I do not think that covid is not a big deal, but there are a lot of people who are hyping it to be worse than it is. Its not a conspiracy, its a combination of various people looking out for their own self interests. Most of these self interest include making money. some of them involve politics.

Im not a statistician, I am only looking at the data you presented, and pointed out some things that seem to be logical.

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Report this Post10-10-2020 11:23 AM Click Here to See the Profile for theBDubSend a Private Message to theBDubEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by gtjoe:

deaths above expected is a long term statistic used to look at a historical event to estimate how many deaths it caused. It really only works when looking back at an event that is over. To give you an example from your spreadsheet if you look at the first 16 weeks the 2020 excess deaths are 84,253. If you extrapolate that over an entire year it would predict 1,095,289 excess deaths for the year. The current number extrapolated over the entire year would be 299,154. If the theory that it many of the deaths were only accelerated by a few months is true you wont know until later because the death rate after the pandemic is over will be lower than expected.

also of note is that the baseline is on a general upward trajectory. If you only use the first three years of your chart the deaths above expected are 268,463 and if you use only the most recent 3 years its 180,269 which is a pretty significant difference.

I do not think that covid is not a big deal, but there are a lot of people who are hyping it to be worse than it is. Its not a conspiracy, its a combination of various people looking out for their own self interests. Most of these self interest include making money. some of them involve politics.

Im not a statistician, I am only looking at the data you presented, and pointed out some things that seem to be logical.


Thanks for clicking around! It’s kinda fun, right?

A few important points to make. This is provisional data, meaning not final, it gets updated weekly, including past days. 2018 is even still technically provisional (though rarely updated). Due to this being provisional, I recommend excluding a few of the last few weeks. The most recent 3 are all but useless, 4-5 get better. I think by week 6 they estimate it’s at least 80% accurate (going off memory, but the CDC has these listed if you want me to track it down). So if we toss out the last 4 weeks, it actually goes up. 274k excess deaths with 2014-2019 being the baseline for comparison.

Now, you are correct, if you play with the years, the excess deaths will change because the baseline changes. It’s not just all going up, though. It’s really predominantly due to some bad flu years in 2017 and 2018, which you can track in the bottom left chart.

I first made a static chart in Excel comparing against just 2019. It got attention because it was easy to understand, but it was misleading because I hadn’t controlled for population growth, 2019 could have been an outlier, and I didn’t toss the most recent weeks because I didn’t want to seem partisan.

I made this with those fixes, but I wanted to lead others to draw their own conclusions. It’s not up to me to decide what weeks to include, others should decide for themselves. It’s not up to me to decide if certain outlier years should be included or not, that’s up to you and how you want to explore the data. I just wanted to present it in a way that makes sense and is easy to digest.

My favorite part of this is looking at the state breakdowns. You can see New York’s clear spike and response. You can track when measures were implemented in certain states that helped or accentuated the spread. It’s super interesting to me.

But at the end of the day, if I take every liberty possible to downplay the data, choose every filter I can that lowers excess deaths, I’m still at least 170k excess deaths so far this year... which is unacceptable.
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Report this Post10-10-2020 11:26 AM Click Here to See the Profile for 82-T/A [At Work]Send a Private Message to 82-T/A [At Work]Edit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by theBDub:


It’s not an article lol it’s a Power BI report. Just click the link. You’ve spent far more time typing than the <30 seconds it would take to look at the visuals lol.

I made the report because many people believe as you do—that the deaths are exaggerated. There is a logical explanation for why you feel that way, including videos you’ve linked to me.

But when you look at the actual data of all deaths, regardless of any cause, just all deaths, it shows that the reported COVID-19 deaths are not only directionally correct, but possibly understated. In effect, you are wrong. It’s definitely confusing to sift through all of the media reports, but the deaths are truly and actually (mostly) as stated.



Unfortunately, what you've done here is seek to support an answer you'd already pre-determined, and in doing so you've invalidated anything you essentially would have done here. You're not impartial, your goal is to express the significance of the death count for political purposes, and you're seeking to prove it based on correlations that only support that. There are a few things I've noticed about your dynamic report:

- You do not state percentage increase per year of your baseline... it should go up every year on a sliding scale.
- You do not attempt to break out any additional information (suicides, overdoses, etc.).
- To be statistically correct, you'd need to correlate other significant death results (car crashes, natural disasters), etc., and not just mortality from other illnesses which the CDC tracks. This is how you determine trending and any potential correlation. For example, during lockdown, I'd expect some to go down (car crashes) while others would go up (heart attacks).
- The only thing I can make any causation from is the Natural Causes designation, and I can see a spike in death from natural causes at the same time as COVID spike during lockdown. What is this saying? It could suggest that maybe COVID was undercounted, but it could also show that suicides and drug overdoses increased dramatically during lockdown, and that they were being counted as COVID deaths.


Again, it seems to me that it's politically important for you to tell us all how many people have died from COVID, that's your first problem. This isn't as scientific as you think, your judgement is clouded in your politics. The numbers will be easier to parse through at the end of the year when totals for various conditions are made definitive, but CDC's numbers are not a complete picture. They collect information from all over, but it is not a complete picture. You should include data sets, including those which extrapolate from the states themselves before CDC dumps them into random bucks. I believe CDC does of course collect deaths for car crashes (for example), but there's no such break-out. I don't expect them to list death by hot dog, but they should include asphyxiation.

Ultimately, your report is merely just a visual display of data from one data source that's been massaged. Not saying you're going to be able to get data as clean as this where you can literally just pull data from an API into BRIO or Crystal Reports or whatever this is (I don't do that stuff anymore), but for what you're trying to prove... you'd need to see either the complete data, or pull from more sources.

I've spent way more time on this than I care to any further...

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theBDub
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Report this Post10-10-2020 11:30 AM Click Here to See the Profile for theBDubSend a Private Message to theBDubEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by 82-T/A [At Work]:
Unfortunately, what you've done here is seek to support an answer you'd already pre-determined, and in doing so you've invalidated anything you essentially would have done here. You're not impartial, your goal is to express the significance of the death count for political purposes, and you're seeking to prove it based on correlations that only support that. There are a few things I've noticed about your dynamic report:

- You do not state percentage increase per year of your baseline... it should go up every year on a sliding scale.
- You do not attempt to break out any additional information (suicides, overdoses, etc.).
- To be statistically correct, you'd need to correlate other significant death results (car crashes, natural disasters), etc., and not just mortality from other illnesses which the CDC tracks. This is how you determine trending and any potential correlation. For example, during lockdown, I'd expect some to go down (car crashes) while others would go up (heart attacks).
- The only thing I can make any causation from is the Natural Causes designation, and I can see a spike in death from natural causes at the same time as COVID spike during lockdown. What is this saying? It could suggest that maybe COVID was undercounted, but it could also show that suicides and drug overdoses increased dramatically during lockdown, and that they were being counted as COVID deaths.


Again, it seems to me that it's politically important for you to tell us all how many people have died from COVID, that's your first problem. This isn't as scientific as you think, your judgement is clouded in your politics. The numbers will be easier to parse through at the end of the year when totals for various conditions are made definitive, but CDC's numbers are not a complete picture. They collect information from all over, but it is not a complete picture. You should include data sets, including those which extrapolate from the states themselves before CDC dumps them into random bucks. I believe CDC does of course collect deaths for car crashes (for example), but there's no such break-out. I don't expect them to list death by hot dog, but they should include asphyxiation.

Ultimately, your report is merely just a visual display of data from one data source that's been massaged. Not saying you're going to be able to get data as clean as this where you can literally just pull data from an API into BRIO or Crystal Reports or whatever this is (I don't do that stuff anymore), but for what you're trying to prove... you'd need to see either the complete data, or pull from more sources.

I've spent way more time on this than I care to any further...


I hear what you are saying, but if you can look at everything I posted and still say it’s due to other causes without bringing any proof, then I’m not the partisan one, Todd. Maybe consider your own biases here and how they might be influencing your opinion.

Edit: I’ll put it this way. If you’re going to suppose that it’s due to something other than (the very heavily correlated) COVID-19, then you bring the data and show me why I am wrong. If you’re willing to say it’s not COVID-19 and claim that it’s a combination of a bunch of other stuff, then prove it.

[This message has been edited by theBDub (edited 10-10-2020).]

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Report this Post10-10-2020 11:47 AM Click Here to See the Profile for 82-T/A [At Work]Send a Private Message to 82-T/A [At Work]Edit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by theBDub:

I hear what you are saying, but if you can look at everything I posted and still say it’s due to other causes without bringing any proof, then I’m not the partisan one, Todd. Maybe consider your own biases here and how they might be influencing your opinion.



No, I like what you did... I really do. I'm also impressed with how much better dynamic reporting has gotten. I haven't touched that stuff in over a decade, and it's wildly better, so props on that. I think CDC's influence in extrapolating the data into the designations they do, makes it difficult to determine the kinds of things that you (and myself) would be interested in, in this case.

Looking at the data, I have more questions than I do answers. That natural causes spike during lockdown either shows COVID deaths are undercounted, but it could show they're overcounted. Either way... I know COVID is bad... worse than the normal influenza virus. We'll have a clearer picture after the year is up.
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Report this Post10-10-2020 03:37 PM Click Here to See the Profile for theBDubSend a Private Message to theBDubEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by 82-T/A [At Work]:
No, I like what you did... I really do. I'm also impressed with how much better dynamic reporting has gotten. I haven't touched that stuff in over a decade, and it's wildly better, so props on that. I think CDC's influence in extrapolating the data into the designations they do, makes it difficult to determine the kinds of things that you (and myself) would be interested in, in this case.

Looking at the data, I have more questions than I do answers. That natural causes spike during lockdown either shows COVID deaths are undercounted, but it could show they're overcounted. Either way... I know COVID is bad... worse than the normal influenza virus. We'll have a clearer picture after the year is up.


Yeah, I have thought about starting a consulting business with it. We are already at the point where the tools have surpassed the business use, it’s pretty cool, and honestly fun to tinker with.
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Report this Post10-10-2020 04:14 PM Click Here to See the Profile for PatrickClick Here to Email PatrickSend a Private Message to PatrickEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by theBDub:

But at the end of the day, if I take every liberty possible to downplay the data, choose every filter I can that lowers excess deaths, I’m still at least 170k excess deaths so far this year... which is unacceptable.


And it's interesting the number of people who apparently find your current presence here to be "unacceptable". Even though your long term ratings are very much positive, the ratings since you've returned to the forum (nice to see you back) have taken a drastic turn for the worse. I haven't seen you involved in any tiff. You've simply been supplying data. Is this perhaps a case of the messenger being shot?

[This message has been edited by Patrick (edited 10-10-2020).]

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Report this Post10-10-2020 04:50 PM Click Here to See the Profile for maryjaneSend a Private Message to maryjaneEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
People don't want data. They want hyperbole.
Data is difficult to disprove where as hyperbole can just be repeated over and over without having to prove anything.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10...ison-trnd/index.html

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Report this Post10-10-2020 05:08 PM Click Here to See the Profile for PatrickClick Here to Email PatrickSend a Private Message to PatrickEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
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Originally posted by maryjane:

People don't want data. They want hyperbole.
Data is difficult to disprove where as hyperbole can just be repeated over and over without having to prove anything.



Yeah, that would certainly explain the ratings of at least one member here.



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Report this Post10-10-2020 06:09 PM Click Here to See the Profile for 82-T/A [At Work]Send a Private Message to 82-T/A [At Work]Edit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
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Originally posted by Patrick:

And it's interesting the number of people who apparently find your current presence here to be "unacceptable". Even though your long term ratings are very much positive, the ratings since you've returned to the forum (nice to see you back) have taken a drastic turn for the worse. I haven't seen you involved in any tiff. You've simply been supplying data. Is this perhaps a case of the messenger being shot?






I have him as a positive in case I was part of your insinuation.

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Report this Post10-10-2020 06:24 PM Click Here to See the Profile for PatrickClick Here to Email PatrickSend a Private Message to PatrickEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
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Originally posted by 82-T/A [At Work]:

I have him as a positive in case I was part of your insinuation.


I wasn't aware I was making an "insinuation" at all. I was wondering about and commenting on the recent dive in forum ratings that theBDub has experienced.
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Report this Post10-10-2020 06:29 PM Click Here to See the Profile for Rickady88GTClick Here to Email Rickady88GTSend a Private Message to Rickady88GTEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
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Originally posted by Patrick:

And it's interesting the number of people who apparently find your current presence here to be "unacceptable". Even though your long term ratings are very much positive, the ratings since you've returned to the forum (nice to see you back) have taken a drastic turn for the worse. I haven't seen you involved in any tiff. You've simply been supplying data. Is this perhaps a case of the messenger being shot?




Just food for thought, his arrow is grey, so this represents no movement recently? The way I understand it, the arrow will change to a light green if it has positive movement and light red if it has recent negative movement. I could be wrong though.
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Report this Post10-10-2020 06:39 PM Click Here to See the Profile for PatrickClick Here to Email PatrickSend a Private Message to PatrickEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
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Originally posted by Rickady88GT:

Just food for thought, his arrow is grey, so this represents no movement recently? The way I understand it, the arrow will change to a light green if it has positive movement and light red if it has recent negative movement. I could be wrong though.


That's not quite how it works. The color bars represent all ratings from day one. The arrow itself represents recent ratings, including repeat ratings. (Repeat ratings don't move the bar.) I believe the arrow's color is dependent on how far into each zone it has traveled.

[This message has been edited by Patrick (edited 10-10-2020).]

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Report this Post10-10-2020 06:58 PM Click Here to See the Profile for Rickady88GTClick Here to Email Rickady88GTSend a Private Message to Rickady88GTEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
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Originally posted by Patrick:

That's not quite how it works. The color bars represent all ratings from day one. The arrow itself represents recent ratings, including repeat ratings. (Repeat ratings don't move the bar.) I believe the arrow's color is dependent on how far into each zone it has traveled.



Like I said, I could be wrong and you may be correct. But the reason Randye has a bright green arrow is because he has recently gained a few positive ratings, the reason theBDub has a neutral or grey color is because he hasn't received any ratings to move his bar either direction. I have no idea how long the arrow stays colored before it returns to grey vrs returning to the center of the bar graph. Ratings threads never get good reviews. It would be a shame if this thread changed topics.
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Report this Post10-10-2020 07:07 PM Click Here to See the Profile for PatrickClick Here to Email PatrickSend a Private Message to PatrickEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
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Originally posted by Rickady88GT:

...the reason theBDub has a neutral or grey color is because he hasn't received any ratings to move his bar either direction.


That is incorrect.
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Report this Post10-10-2020 07:22 PM Click Here to See the Profile for Jake_DragonSend a Private Message to Jake_DragonEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
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Originally posted by theBDub:

Yeah, I have thought about starting a consulting business with it. We are already at the point where the tools have surpassed the business use, it’s pretty cool, and honestly fun to tinker with.


Most big business is data driven. They collect data as part of a service then figure out ways of leveraging that data for a return. Why store it and not use it?
Its too easy to see the end result and ignore how you get there. If you get into that field don't fall into the wrong group.
Peoples lives are not worth a favorable report.

Good luck, I couldn't sit and look at data all day and think its fun. Well unless its Hooters data...
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Originally posted by Patrick:

That is incorrect.


Ok, carry on.
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Report this Post10-10-2020 08:48 PM Click Here to See the Profile for maryjaneSend a Private Message to maryjaneEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
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Originally posted by Patrick:

That is incorrect.


Yep. For whatever reason, I had BDub at neutral and gave him a positive rating earlier today. His arrow color did not change.

Anyone can do a 'nudge' at any time even if they had previously rated someone before and the little arrow will move whichever direction ya nudged it (even if it's in the same way you rated them previously). The arrow will move, but their ratings bar itself won't change color and neither will their total ratings change on a 'nudge'.
(you may have to refresh the pg to see the arrow has moved, but in the case of TheBDub, his arrow never changed color no matter which way I nudged it.)

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Report this Post10-10-2020 10:12 PM Click Here to See the Profile for maryjaneSend a Private Message to maryjaneEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
The ghost of BDub from the past.........

http://www.fiero.nl/forum/A...130314-6-086436.html
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Report this Post10-10-2020 10:52 PM Click Here to See the Profile for theBDubSend a Private Message to theBDubEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
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Originally posted by Patrick:

And it's interesting the number of people who apparently find your current presence here to be "unacceptable". Even though your long term ratings are very much positive, the ratings since you've returned to the forum (nice to see you back) have taken a drastic turn for the worse. I haven't seen you involved in any tiff. You've simply been supplying data. Is this perhaps a case of the messenger being shot?





Nah, it’s due to the other thread I was in. I came in guns blazing. Randye really riled me up. The recent ignorance of so many people lately has really pissed me off. I still can’t decide if I need to just get over it, or I just need Inauguration Day 😬

And me saying this is conceited and self-absorbed, not the least to say it’s also not politically aligned with the majority on the forum. So I’m sure the arrow will move left again
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Report this Post10-10-2020 11:08 PM Click Here to See the Profile for PatrickClick Here to Email PatrickSend a Private Message to PatrickEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
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Originally posted by theBDub:

Nah, it’s due to the other thread I was in. I came in guns blazing. Randye really riled me up. The recent ignorance of so many people lately has really pissed me off.


Yes, it never ceases to amaze me the number of people who will believe anything if it's repeated enough times... especially if it's in large fonts and bolded.
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Report this Post10-10-2020 11:19 PM Click Here to See the Profile for maryjaneSend a Private Message to maryjaneEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
I Invented Post-It Notes, Climbed Mt Everest (twice) and killed the last surviving unicorn!
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Report this Post10-10-2020 11:51 PM Click Here to See the Profile for IMSA GTClick Here to Email IMSA GTSend a Private Message to IMSA GTEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
Well you know what they say "Don't California my Florida". If you brought that same California liberal mentality to Florida when you moved, that would explain the ratings.
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Report this Post10-11-2020 12:12 AM Click Here to See the Profile for PatrickClick Here to Email PatrickSend a Private Message to PatrickEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
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Originally posted by maryjane:

I Invented Post-It Notes, Climbed Mt Everest (twice) and killed the last surviving unicorn!


You're on the right track, Don. Just post the same thing several more times now... and then maybe run for office!
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Report this Post10-11-2020 09:25 AM Click Here to See the Profile for theBDubSend a Private Message to theBDubEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
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Originally posted by IMSA GT:

Well you know what they say "Don't California my Florida". If you brought that same California liberal mentality to Florida when you moved, that would explain the ratings.


Ahh, that is old. Updated.

I’m not a liberal. In some respects, I actually might be further from that definition than most here. I’m a Libertarian. I never said what I wanted the government to do about the data I’ve shared. I won’t break out every single issue and why I’m voting for who I’m voting for, it’s not related to this thread, but I’ll just say there is only one side that doesn’t believe the numbers and doesn’t believe the science.

And imo, you don’t rate someone on their beliefs. You rate someone based on how they compose themselves. This forum has never been great at separating the person from the political beliefs.
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Report this Post10-11-2020 11:17 AM Click Here to See the Profile for 82-T/A [At Work]Send a Private Message to 82-T/A [At Work]Edit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by theBDub:

I’ll just say there is only one side that doesn’t believe the numbers and doesn’t believe the science.




I wanted to respond to this honestly... this line above, with my thoughts and why I disagree with this statement.

I used to be a Democrat... I was a Democrat for many years and slowly became a Republican. My parents were Republican, but I actually didn't even really think about this. I was raised to love America, plain and simple. I was raised in the belief that the United States was the greatest country in the world, and we had "the" best form of Government, period. I still 100% wholly believe this.

In any case, I was JUST old enough to vote for Bill Clinton in his reelection campaign... and that was the first president I ever voted for. Although I voted for Bush in 2000, I voted straight-ticket Democrat on everything else. The last time I voted for a Democrat was in 2006 (mid-terms) when I, yet again... still voted straight-ticket Democrat. Ron Klien and Bill Nelson were in my district, along with school board and everything else.

As I've "progressed," I try to consider what I was thinking back then, and the truth is... at the time it made sense. Those were sensible people, and that's why I voted for them. I remember the person who ran against Bill Nelson in 2006, and it was some guy... maybe Mel Martinez? I can't remember... but the guy was corrupt... very corrupt. After Bill Nelson became the "deciding vote" for the ACA, I started voting all Republican. At this point, I vote straight-ticket Republican. So it's been a good 14 years... but I realize that it wasn't me really that left the Democrat party, the Democrat party left me. The party is nothing like it used to be. There is a general hatred of America.

The difference between those of us on the right, libertarians, and Democrats who just haven't woken up yet, is that we all believe the United States is the greatest civilization and Constitution in history ... and that it can always be made better. On the far left however, there is the underlying belief that America was never great, and that it needs to be dismantled and remade into something ideologically radical. The speech by Kennedy, "Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country," would be considered fascist speech today by most Millennials.


Now, what is the point of all this? "Facts" and "Science" are consistent once we know that they are legitimate. The difference is that Democrats (today's version of Democrats) use some version of facts and science to further their ideological agenda. For example... Climate Change. We can all agree on at least a lowest common denominator of facts on this science... that we've at least unequivocally agreed to. We can and should be able to agree on ways to fix this. But the Democrats use Climate Change... not to fix problems with climate, but as a means to enact their ideological goals... such as to push socialism and wealth redistribution. The Climate Accord, among other things, was really just making the United States a checkbook for other countries. The "Carbon Credits" was just a means of welfare from one company to social programs and other means of wealth redistribution. All complete garbage that does nothing to solve the problem, but only furthers a Marxist / Socialist agenda.

You need only look to the various states and how they handled the lockdowns... the liberal states implemented long drawn-out lockdowns that effectively destroyed their state economies... with absolutely no perceivable benefit to the death toll.


Science... anti-vaxxers are by and large on the left, but they say the right doesn't like science. The left politicians are always arguing this, but now that it's politically expedient for them to do so, they're saying you shouldn't get vaccinated and that they don't trust it.

I honestly cannot tell you how much disgust and hatred I have for the left. I legitimately see them as pure evil in this country. I don't hate my fellow Democrats... out of all my friends, the overwhelming vast majority of them are ultra-liberal. I don't really watch news... I haven't watched Fox (since this seems to be the go-to criticism) in almost 5 years. I watch OAN on occasion, but their news is maybe 20% political... the nightly news talks about things unrelated... like the Pikachu Festival in Japan, or whatever. Anyway, I believe most Democrats to be uninformed about most things, such as the way economies work, or even basic human needs / desires... that you can simply eliminate meritocracy and pay everyone the same and that great things will just happen. Though... seems pointless to bring that up, because it seems both Republicans (Trump) and Democrats all seem to believe MMT is the way of the future... you just print money to pay off debt... ridiculous.


Anyway, as I've said many times before. I don't think Clinton, Reagan, Obama, Biden, or anyone else would have handled things any differently... really any better. Every president would have (in hind-sight, a bad decision) gone into complete lock-down, and every president would have lifted restrictions on these lock-downs. What is obvious to me, and just like I've been saying in my long-ass diatribe above... the only reason why this death toll is important, is because Democrats are using it for political gain. They don't actually care what the number is... they only care that they can use it to get Trump out of office. That tells me all I need to know about the personality of the left...


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Report this Post10-11-2020 11:46 AM Click Here to See the Profile for BoondawgClick Here to Email BoondawgSend a Private Message to BoondawgEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by theBDub:

I’m not a liberal. ...

And imo, you don’t rate someone on their beliefs. You rate someone based on how they compose themselves. This forum has never been great at separating the person from the political beliefs.


In my experience here, you are politically what someone sez you are.
Somehow that makes you easier to bury.

I used to believe the attitude I was brought up on that as fellow Americans, we were all in this together. We may have differences, but working together despite of them is what made us great.

But now I know each side absolutely hates each other, and would rather the other side just up and disappear altogether.
Each side can no longer see the value of having the 2 sides.

Ratings: My experience is it’s a “friend or enemy” button based solely on your personal choices & opinions.
It has absolutely nothing to do with ones ability to be civil.

I have actually seen some here fight tooth-&-nail against the simple concept of civility like it was communism or something.

I love the new system Cliff has put in place against personal attacks & other moronic instabilities puked fourth solely for the thrill of unnessary cruelty.

It has really cut-down on the childish personal attacks from a few blow-hard bullies with more mouth than brains.

Including me!

Although I do have to still constantly remind some here that for whatever silly reason they have for not liking me or my opinions to simply not click on me.

It reminds me of those religious zealots who beat the living snot out of their own backs with all manor of sharp items attached to a whip.

I mean, they must be getting something out of it, right?

[This message has been edited by Boondawg (edited 10-11-2020).]

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Report this Post10-12-2020 11:27 AM Click Here to See the Profile for maryjaneSend a Private Message to maryjaneEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
What is obvious to me, and just like I've been saying in my long-ass diatribe above... the only reason why this death toll is important, is because Democrats are using it for political gain. They don't actually care what the number is... they only care that they can use it to get Trump out of office. That tells me all I need to know about the personality of the left...

Another unproven allegation.

There is not and never has been a national plan or protocol for dealing with Covid19 and that, falls squarely on the shoulders of the oval office.

It is politicised for sure, beginning with "It's just one guy form China it's under control totally" (President Trump in January)
Against all advise from leading medical authorities, he continued to publicly downplay the seriousness of the pandemtic and continued thru May of pressuring governors to reopen their states presumably because he hinged re-election chances on a vibrant economy.

A new pathogen, with little or no natural immunity, that very little was known about should have raised huge concerns from the federal govt, instead, the burden was placed upon the governors of 50 individual states and we ended up with a hodge podge of 50 different protocols that resulted in 200,000 deaths.

His most recent rationalization for all that was "to curtail or limit panic".

NOTHING causes panic more than the unknown and nothing speaks louder than the silent voices of 200,000+ dead people.
I followed this from the very beginning (even before I started the Covid19 first thread here in OT) In my mind, it was going to be serious and eventually would be here in the US and I thought to myself "This, is where Donald Trump is going to LEAD, where he is really going to shine" .

I will vote for him again, but I am sorely disappointed in his huge lack of leadership in this matter.
The buck stops with and at that fancy chair in the oval office.

Here’s what the president said in public remarks, interviews and tweets from Jan. 22 to March 10 -– one day before the World Health Organization declared the global outbreak a pandemic.

Jan. 22: “We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. We have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.” — Trump in a CNBC interview.

Jan. 30: “We think we have it very well under control. We have very little problem in this country at this moment — five — and those people are all recuperating successfully. But we’re working very closely with China and other countries, and we think it’s going to have a very good ending for us … that I can assure you.” — Trump in a speech in Michigan.

Feb. 10: “Now, the virus that we’re talking about having to do — you know, a lot of people think that goes away in April with the heat — as the heat comes in. Typically, that will go away in April. We’re in great shape though. We have 12 cases — 11 cases, and many of them are in good shape now.” — Trump at the White House. (See our item “Will the New Coronavirus ‘Go Away’ in April?“)

Feb. 14: “There’s a theory that, in April, when it gets warm — historically, that has been able to kill the virus. So we don’t know yet; we’re not sure yet. But that’s around the corner.” — Trump in speaking to National Border Patrol Council members.

Feb. 23: “We have it very much under control in this country.” — Trump in speaking to reporters.

Feb. 24: “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. We are in contact with everyone and all relevant countries. CDC & World Health have been working hard and very smart. Stock Market starting to look very good to me!” — Trump in a tweet.

Feb. 26: “So we’re at the low level. As they get better, we take them off the list, so that we’re going to be pretty soon at only five people. And we could be at just one or two people over the next short period of time. So we’ve had very good luck.” — Trump at a White House briefing.

Feb. 26: “And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done.” — Trump at a press conference.

Feb. 26: “I think every aspect of our society should be prepared. I don’t think it’s going to come to that, especially with the fact that we’re going down, not up. We’re going very substantially down, not up.” — Trump at a press conference, when asked if “U.S. schools should be preparing for a coronavirus spreading.”

Feb. 27: “It’s going to disappear. One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear.” — Trump at a White House meeting with African American leaders.

Feb. 29: “And I’ve gotten to know these professionals. They’re incredible. And everything is under control. I mean, they’re very, very cool. They’ve done it, and they’ve done it well. Everything is really under control.” — Trump in a speech at the CPAC conference outside Washington, D.C.

March 4: “[W]e have a very small number of people in this country [infected]. We have a big country. The biggest impact we had was when we took the 40-plus people [from a cruise ship]. … We brought them back. We immediately quarantined them. But you add that to the numbers. But if you don’t add that to the numbers, we’re talking about very small numbers in the United States.” — Trump at a White House meeting with airline CEOs.

March 4: “Well, I think the 3.4% is really a false number.” — Trump in an interview on Fox News, referring to the percentage of diagnosed COVID-19 patients worldwide who had died, as reported by the World Health Organization. (See our item “Trump and the Coronavirus Death Rate.”)

March 7: “No, I’m not concerned at all. No, we’ve done a great job with it.” — Trump, when asked by reporters if he was concerned about the arrival of the coronavirus in the Washington, D.C., area.

March 9: “So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!” — Trump in a tweet.

March 10: “And we’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with it. And it will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.” — Trump after meeting with Republican senators.

A day later, on March 11, the WHO declared the global outbreak a pandemic.

It's gone downhill from there as have his re-election chances. He may yet eke out a victory but if not, he alone is at fault.


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Report this Post10-12-2020 12:04 PM Click Here to See the Profile for BoondawgClick Here to Email BoondawgSend a Private Message to BoondawgEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by maryjane:

I will vote for him again, but I am sorely disappointed in his huge lack of leadership in this matter.


For the love of God, why?

Let’s pretend for a second that his failure in dealing with this pandemic is his only fault, in-office.

Isn’t that enough?
His ineptitude killed people needlessly.

The truth is, he is incapable of caring about anyone or anything other than himself.

THAT is not the mark of a leader.
That’s not even the mark of a decent human being.

I don’t get it.


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Report this Post10-12-2020 12:36 PM Click Here to See the Profile for blackramsClick Here to Email blackramsSend a Private Message to blackramsEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by Boondawg:

I don’t get it.



maryjane is correct IMHO. President Trump could have and should have listened to the "experts" and gone a different course in the way he handled this Pandemic.
Having said that, he's done more to keep his campaign promises than any President I can recall. Even when faced with all the crap the Dems have thrown up as obstacles.
I don't expect bleeding heart Liberals to ever get it. If that is applicable to you, it is, what it is.

DJT getting elected the first time (IMHO) is directly related to who he was running against. HRC was either hated or loved.
I won't be surprised if Biden wins due to the same reasoning but, DJT will get my vote also.

Draining the swamp is a nasty undertaking and during that process, DJT got bit several times and stepped into several piles of crap. Most of those were provided by Dems.
Although I do have several Democrats who I call friend, I can't think of a single Democrat Party leader I would allow in my home. I don't need to stink up the place.

Rams

[This message has been edited by blackrams (edited 10-13-2020).]

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Report this Post10-12-2020 01:04 PM Click Here to See the Profile for BoondawgClick Here to Email BoondawgSend a Private Message to BoondawgEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
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Originally posted by blackrams:


Draining the swamp is a nasty undertaking and during that process, DJT got bit several times and stepped into several piles of crap.

Rams


He brought in more criminals then he took out.
The list is readily available.

P.S. Recognizing a sociopathic douche bag doesn’t require one to be a “bleeding-heart liberal”.

It simply requires a working brain.

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Report this Post10-12-2020 01:37 PM Click Here to See the Profile for maryjaneSend a Private Message to maryjaneEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
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For the love of God, why?


It's kind of like the cow bizness.
What you have may be far from perfect but the replacement heifers are always an absolute unknown but newbies are ALWAYS a PITA. Known problems vs unknown problems.
(same reason I desperately hold on to my current wife too)
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Report this Post10-12-2020 01:39 PM Click Here to See the Profile for BoondawgClick Here to Email BoondawgSend a Private Message to BoondawgEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
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Originally posted by maryjane:


It's kind of like the cow bizness.
What you have may be far from perfect but the replacement heifers are always an absolute unknown but newbies are ALWAYS a PITA. Known problems vs unknown problems.
(same reason I desperately hold on to my current wife too)


Fair enough.
At least it’s honest.
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Report this Post10-12-2020 01:41 PM Click Here to See the Profile for blackramsClick Here to Email blackramsSend a Private Message to blackramsEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
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Originally posted by Boondawg:

It simply requires a working brain.


Agreed.
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Report this Post10-13-2020 01:04 AM Click Here to See the Profile for rinselbergClick Here to visit rinselberg's HomePageClick Here to Email rinselbergSend a Private Message to rinselbergEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
"We've got a really big 'shoe' for you tonight..."

Not really. Just the more or less standard fare from the Human Internet Page Link. (That would be me.)

It's two new mini-reports or Research Letters in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) Online, described in an NBC News wrapper (but not a rapper) for the general audience. "Let's get to it."

I think these could be of some interest to the forum members who have debated and messaged at length about Covid-related statistics and counting methods.

"The Covid-19 pandemic has claimed far more lives than reported, study says"
 
quote
On top of that, the U.S. has fared much worse than most high-income countries, a separate study found.
 
quote
Far more Americans have died as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic than have been counted and reported, according to new research published Monday in the Journal of the American Medical Association.

Is he just crying "Woolf"..?
 
quote
"For every two Americans that we know of who are dying of Covid-19, another American is dying," said Dr. Steven Woolf, author of the new research and director emeritus of the Center on Society and Health at Virginia Commonwealth University.

Woolf's study looked at death statistics from the National Center for Health Statistics, which is part of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as well as the Census Bureau.

Erika Edwards for NBC News; October 12, 2020.
https://www.nbcnews.com/hea...orted-study-n1242970

The NBC News report is about two new Research Letters in JAMA Online.

"Excess Deaths From COVID-19 and Other Causes, March-July 2020"
Woolf SH, Chapman DA, Sabo RT, Weinberger DM, Hill L, Taylor DDH; JAMA Online; October 12, 2020.
https://jamanetwork.com/jou.../fullarticle/2771761

"COVID-19 and Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries"
Bilinski A, Emanuel EJ; JAMA Online; October 12, 2020.
https://jamanetwork.com/jou.../fullarticle/2771841

Each of the Research Letters starts with a summary paragraph or "Abstract."

Which reminds me of when I was in Africa. I read a letter in my JAMAs. How it got into my JAMAs, I'll never know.

[This message has been edited by rinselberg (edited 10-13-2020).]

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Report this Post10-13-2020 07:08 AM Click Here to See the Profile for blackramsClick Here to Email blackramsSend a Private Message to blackramsEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
Learned last evening that WHO is now saying Lock Downs are not the answer to controlling this Pandemic.

Alrighty, tell me again who the experts on this are? Talk about a 180 degree turn around.........................

Rams
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Report this Post10-13-2020 07:20 AM Click Here to See the Profile for maryjaneSend a Private Message to maryjaneEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
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Originally posted by blackrams:

Learned last evening that WHO is now saying Lock Downs are not the answer to controlling this Pandemic.

Alrighty, tell me again who the experts on this are? Talk about a 180 degree turn around.........................

Rams


From where did you learn that?
linky..or did it come from other worldly sources?

(I suspect WHO said lockdowns weren't the ONLY answer to controlling the pandemic)

[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 10-13-2020).]

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Report this Post10-13-2020 07:24 AM Click Here to See the Profile for blackramsClick Here to Email blackramsSend a Private Message to blackramsEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
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Originally posted by maryjane:


From where did you learn that?
linky..or did it come from other worldly sources?


Was on the late news, will see if I can find a link.

One of several reports I found:

After supporting coronavirus lockdowns for months, the WHO just made the reversal of the year
https://bgr.com/2020/10/11/...ew-warning-covid-19/

Rams

[This message has been edited by blackrams (edited 10-13-2020).]

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Report this Post10-13-2020 08:24 AM Click Here to See the Profile for maryjaneSend a Private Message to maryjaneEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
Lockdowns are necessary when outbreaks or spikes in any geographical area suface. It stops the spreador movement of the virus and during lockdown, other means of control have to be implemented and strictly followed. Otherwise, you see a long, never ending series of peaks and valleys as the areas exit from lockdown, just as we've seen in many states here in America.
WHO has always first and foremost, advocated sanitation, distancing, masks and called for regional or local lockdowns only if the people within those areas aren't following the other protocols, and that is what has been happening in this country. People won't wear masks, won't avoid close proximity with others, go out into bars and other gathering places once the numbers drop a little and the thing takes right back off again. Who has been begging countries to develop and push masks and distancing instead of lockdowns, but 'certain' countries (and individual states in the US case) just won't do it.

At about 25 minutes, you will see(hear) what WHO really said.

Lockdowns come about because PEOPLE just won't follow the other protocols.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8oH7cBxgwE

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