The economy, is it good or bad. Are we headed into a recession? I see on the one hand the stock market is taking a dive,
Stocks Plunge; Dow Down More Than 310
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Jul 26, 6:33 PM (ET)
By JOE BEL BRUNO  (AP) Trader Peter Tuchman rubs his head as he works or the floor of the New York Stock Exchange,... Full Image
p {margin:12px 0px 0px 0px;} NEW YORK (AP) - Wall Street suffered one of its worst losses of 2007 Thursday, leading a global stock market plunge as investors succumbed to months of worry about the mortgage and corporate lending markets. The Dow Jones industrials closed down more than 310 points after earlier skidding nearly 450. Investors who had been able for months to largely shrug off discomfort about subprime mortgage problems and a more difficult environment for corporate borrowing finally decided it was time to sell after the Commerce Department issued another disappointing home sales report.
By ALEX VEIGA  (AP) A home is offered for sale in Riverside, Calif. Monday, July 23 2007. Mortgage defaults in... Full Image
p {margin:12px 0px 0px 0px;} LOS ANGELES (AP) - The national housing slump could lead to billions of dollars in losses for Wall Street investors as it drags on for at least another year and mortgage defaults increase, economists said Thursday. The outlook on eroding credit quality in the U.S. mortgage market by Moody's Economy.com anticipates that more than 1.2 million first mortgage loans will default this year and another 1.3 million will follow next year. That compares with about 900,000 defaults last year and about 800,000 in 2005, Mark Zandi, the Web site's chief economist, said in a conference call. Hedge fund investors will lose between $100 billion and $125 billion as a result, he said.
"We do expect losses in the subprime market to be very severe," Zandi said
Yet the government says everything is doing great.
Economy Growth Is Best in a Year
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Jul 27, 9:14 AM (ET)
By JEANNINE AVERSA  (AP) A newly constructed home waits for an owner in Bainbridge Twp., Ohio on Thursday, July 26, 2007. ... Full Image
p {margin:12px 0px 0px 0px;} WASHINGTON (AP) - The economy snapped out of a lethargic spell and grew at a 3.4 percent pace in the second quarter, the strongest showing in more than a year. A revival in business spending was a main force behind the energized performance. The new reading on gross domestic product, released by the Commerce Department on Friday, marked a big improvement from the first three months of this year, when economic growth skidded to a near halt at just a 0.6 percent pace, the slowest in more than four years.
Are you asking for a political or economic opinion?
If you want a genuine assessment of the economy, you won't like what you hear. But I'll be happy to give it to you.
I'd be interested in your assessment of the economy, Todd. From what I've seen, even with the DOW going up, things aren't looking good. The Dollar is going down, and so the DOW goes up because it costs more dollars for the same thing. But "value" or "worth" hasn't really increased. If you read the DOW as related to gold prices, it looks like we've been on a steady decline for a while. I'm surprised inflation is as low as it is, but that's being artificially supressed by interest rates.
You can make money in virtually any market if you know how to take advantage of the prevailing trends. Right now foreign investment seems to be the most stable - as evidenced by the strength of the British Pound and Euro.
Genuine asessment is that the economy is very strong. The strongest in quite some time. What makes folks uneasy is the instability they feel. We are in a phase where the eceonomy is very strong, but people don't feel secure financially (fear of job loss, etc), so they think the economy is tanking.
Genuine asessment is that the economy is very strong. The strongest in quite some time. What makes folks uneasy is the instability they feel. We are in a phase where the eceonomy is very strong, but people don't feel secure financially (fear of job loss, etc), so they think the economy is tanking.
Not only that, average wages havent inflated with the economic growth. Go corporate America!
I'd be interested in your assessment of the economy, Todd.
Firstly I want to give an honest assessment but I can't do that without a political observation or two so please read with that understanding in mind.
OK, it is fair to point out the fact that the US economy DOES have issues. No system is perfect and no system can't be improved upon. Clearly our National Debt is a National Disgrace. It should be reduced...NOT ELIMINATED (a little debt is actually a good thing) but reduced significantly. Our debt should be no more than $2 trillion dollars, it is currently around $10 T. Our budget should be balanced because when emergencies like war, hurricanes, earthquakes, etc. arise, we will not be prepared to deal with them if we are overextended.
I don't want to get into a micro analysis of unemplyment and other leading indicators for one main reason, many won't see the point and others won't care. Instead I want to discuss the US economy in the context of what it means to the world that we are in good shape:
The U.S. Economy's Output is 20% of the World's Total: Total output for the U.S. economy in 2006 was $12.98 trillion, one fifth of the world's total output. It is also the largest in the world, followed closely by the European Union (EU) at $12.82 trillion, China at $10 trillion and Japan at $4.2 trillion. In fact, the GDP of most countries are the same as many U.S. states. To put these numbers in perspective, check out this map., which shows which country has the same GDP as each state.
The U.S. Economy Provides One of the Highest Standards of Living in the World: The power of the U.S. economy is seen in its GDP per capita, which was $43,500 in 2006. Although it is the second largest economy, the EU's GDP per capita was only $29,300, while Japan's was $33,100. China's GDP per capita was only $7,600 because they have four times the number of people as does the U.S. Think of the incredible economic power it takes to both be the largest economy in the world while producing one of the highest standards of living per person. While other countries, such as Norway and Bermuda, have higher GDP per capita, they aren't also a driver of the global economic engine that the U.S. is.
Another thing, a lot has been said about the DOW Averages but where else are investors going to go? The U.S. has a the world’s most sophisticated stock market and financial sector. The transparency of our stock market allows investors to gain up-to-date information about every aspect of companies in which they might invest. Wall Street attracts the most talented personnel and can afford the most powerful technology. This allows U.S. banks to control billions of dollars in transactions to take place anywhere in the world. It also enables these banks to provide any number of complicated derivatives to provide hedging against risk. This incredible competitive advantage supports a variety of complicated foreign exchange transactions at lower cost.
Now the MAIN issue to discuss in relation to the economy is demand. Good old demand drives EVERYTHING! All businesses try to understand or guide consumer demand, so they can be the first or the cheapest in delivering the right products and services. If something is in high demand, businesses make more. If they can’t make more fast enough, the price goes up. Demand can be measured by a country’s total production of goods and service minus its exports, which are demanded by other countries, plus its imports, which are the items it doesn’t make at home.
Measured this way, the U.S. economic demand is just over $13 trillion, which is just over 20% of the world’s total demand. The next largest country, China, has a demand of $8.7 trillion, while Japan's demand is nearly $4 trillion. America Has Been the World’s Best Customer. Right now countries need America because we are the largest importer, at $1.7 trillion, twice as large as Germany, the next largest importer, and three times as large as China, the world’s third largest importer. Because of this role, all countries have an interest in maintaining good relations with the U.S., and in keeping our economy healthy.
The key component of demand is consumer goods and services. Whereas the U.S. supplies all of its own services, it imports goods that can be made more efficiently overseas, such as industrial supplies, oil, telecommunication equipment, autos, clothing and furniture. It is often said that the U.S. has lost its competitive edge in producing these products, and has become a service-oriented economy. The key driver of demand growth is economic growth. Here’s how it works. As incomes rise, people are able to buy more. As people buy more, companies can make more, and then pay employees more. The ideal situation is healthy growth without inflation, which has been the situation in the U.S. for the last five years.
Since demand is dependent on personal income and wealth, a decline in wealth will lower demand. This is why I am so vehemently in favor of reduced corporate and personal taxes and I get angry when Democrats attack "the rich". Now I also understand why so many Americans FEEL worse off. The Federal Reserve reported that the median net worth per family rose only 1.5% from 2001 to 2004. Since net worth did not keep up with inflation during these years, the average household feels poorer. Although demand grew, it was financed by home equity loans. As a result, overall debt and debt servicing took a larger percent of family income. In fact, the number of late payments (60+ days) increased, especially among the bottom 80% of the income distribution.
As the housing market declines, this reliance on debt could result in a decline in U.S. demand. How do we fight this? Increase foreign demand. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicted that China, India and Russia will grow strongly over the next six months, while the U.S., Japan, and Brazil will slow. The U.K. and the Euro area had mixed indicators, which portend moderate growth. Despite the OECD’s forecast, the Bank of Japan is predicting an upswing in economic growth throughout 2007. One of the drivers of this growth is expanding private consumption as a result of wage increases. In addition, the housing market is getting stronger. It's pure bullshit but that's the Japanese take on things not mine.
Many experts believe that Europe’s economic recovery is speeding up while America's is slowing down. They explain that Europe has built its strength on encouraging exports and domestic consumption, while that of the U.S. is built on debt financing. This is not something that can be sustained since banks have all but done away with 100% financing and new home sales will require more investor input. That means more savings! essentially, the banks made the cardinal sin of making it easy for us. Who wouldn't do 100% financing!? Afterall, you get the title and the bank gets the risk. Things get tough, walk away. The banking community has wised-up. They are FORCING Americans to save and that will turn the savings deficit around. When you combine this with the US workforce, one of the largest in the world and the single greatest producer per laborer in the world, our potential is staggering.
I think we are in a pre-election, long-war malaise right now and despite this our national production is at all time highs. Wait til after the election in 08 and see the afterburners kick in.
The economy? A few beers should not stop me from giving you my opinion, . How much money is in your pocket? It sounds simplistic but it is not.
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Originally posted by Toddster: Firstly I want to give an honest assessment but I can't do that without a political observation or two so please read with that understanding in mind.
Nor can I. No one can.
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Originally posted by Toddster: Now the MAIN issue to discuss in relation to the economy is demand.
Well, I see Todd used CAPS. There is no demand without money. Tax cuts put more money in one's pocket. I wonder ? How can the housing market always increase? Am I wrong, or is the housing market new houses only? The only way I can see the housing market always increase....is with more births. I am not always gonna buy a brand new vehicle. I only have once. I have seen the new housing market affect the economy. Why? My take....borrowed money. That phenomena where the people with money make money lending it to those without. To me, and I do not know crap, the flow of money makes the economy. Here is where my political observation comes in. Taxes rob money holders of money. The Dumbocrats want to raise taxes and introduce new ones. To take from the rich and give to the poor. The Dumbocrats, (flame suit on), to keep power, need dependents. They want us to depend on them. They want bigger government. More control, Which is why they are in favor of amnesty for illegal aliens. They want the support (needed) of the poor people. They are easier to control. To bam boozle. The poor are less educated and will listen to a snake oil salesman and then buy snake oil. I was that dumb. Probably still am. But I learned. How can Edwards get $400.00 hair cuts and be for the poor man. Sad fact. You can not know a person unless you have walked in their shoes. The Dumbocrats, they are playing to the people who bought into their hype. The Repulsivcans, they do the same thing. Except John McCain. He speaks his patriotic feelings. In answer to the question, I don't know. . There are no riots in the streets.
Ask someone who is doing well, they will tell you the economy is strong. Ask someone who is struggling, they will tell you it's in the crapper.
I had a couple of other witty answers backed up by statistics, but Toddster's post pretty much spells it all out. I've been all over the world, and while there are number of countries around the world that I truly love (Germany in particular), I'm always glad to get home. We live pretty damn well here, and I think sometimes we Americans take that fact for granted and don't always appreciate just how well we have it. Even the poor here live pretty well compared to a lot of the world.
[edit] Hey Cliff.....according that map above, we're Canadians LOL
[This message has been edited by Frizlefrak (edited 07-27-2007).]
The economy, is it good or bad. Are we headed into a recession? I see on the one hand the stock market is taking a dive,
Stocks Plunge; Dow Down More Than 310
What do you think?
Hmm. My stocks are doing darn good. GOOG, AAPL. RIMM, LFC, ASIAN, AND MINERIALS markets. The Dow reaching into the lows is a good thing. Market corrections are good; buy on the lows, but with companies with good fundamentals.
I just wonder what the next "fad investment" is going to be.
The telecoms/dotcoms were the darlings of the 90s, based entirely on speculation and helped by the ease of online trading. Everyone was dumping money into dotcoms, knowing that they were way overblown, based solely on the premise that they would be able to unload them before the industry reverted to its "true" value. After that bubble burst, it took a good 5 or so years for the telecom industry (the backbone of the dotcoms) to recover, on its own merits.
Real estate was the darling of this decade. Of course, that was "helped" by the moronic lending practices. Now, the borrowers (at least the late-comers) have defaulted and are living in apartments along with the potential borrowers who are no longer eligible (I understand that rents are just skyrocketing) and the banks and mortgage companies are stuck with a pile of properties that they really don't know what to do with.
I wonder how long it's going to take for this market to return to "normalcy". I'm sure you can add some insight, Todd.
Oh no.. the economy is fine... Just buy that new car, sofa and house and be sure to get long term loans... everything is fune... just fine..
Funny that you should say that. I heard a 40 (or longer?) year mortgage advertised the other day. If you can't pay for a house in 30 years or less, you've got too much house.
Originally posted by Frizlefrak: We live pretty damn well here, and I think sometimes we Americans take that fact for granted and don't always appreciate just how well we have it. Even the poor here live pretty well compared to a lot of the world.
Truer words were never spoken. It is especially disheartening when I see this "I hate America", self-loathing crap from a certain side of the politcal aisle. Gawd, what a waste of energy and effort.
Funny that you should say that. I heard a 40 (or longer?) year mortgage advertised the other day. If you can't pay for a house in 30 years or less, you've got too much house.
Yes I agree with that but most people do not ever take a home loan to term. It's just another way to let more people get into the market, which I see as good. I suppose a lot of folks like to be in dept and get that write off and a 40 year mortgage would sure do that for ya BUT the way I see it is that I just can't eat that right off and I have to spend way more to get only a deduction from my earnings which I only pay a percentage of in tax. In fact we don't pay enough interest to get one. To me it is a loser. We are trying to get our place paid off. It takes quite a bit of self control to not dip into the equity like everyone else we know does especially since we have a but load of equity that we did not pay anything for due to the massive increase in home values up here. I think we will be way better off in the long run this way.
The economy is cooking up here still.
[This message has been edited by Red88FF (edited 07-27-2007).]
It really depends on how you look at it. My 401k and mutual funds are doing great thanks to the current market. Sure it lost over 300pts recently but in general it has grown significantly over the last few years. My funds have averaged over a 10% return since 2004. Also, I have a great job, so my answer would be that the economy is fine.
Most of the answers posted here are going to be propotional to the situation that person is in.
The undeniable fact is that the rich keep getting richer and the poor keep getting poorer in America. We have an over abundace of greed in this country. My company is a perfect example. We have posted record profits in the last 8 quarters, yet they've cut our 401k benefits twice this year because "we're moving toward a contribution that is in line with the industry". They've also done away with annual cost of living raises. They say it's because we're a "forward thinking company". Whatever, it's because someone higher up wants more $$$. How many million do they need? It's because I don't mean a damn to them and they just assume milk me for what I'm worth while they can. Recently they started a site in Asia where they can pay someone 1/2 as much to do what I do. Where do you think my job will be in 5 years? It is attitudes like the ones my company owners have that are destroying this place
This is what America is turning into. It has been going this route for the past 2 decades. I feel as if we're moving towards 2 countries in one....the rich and the poor with few in between.
So, as I said before, the answer to the question depends on who you ask.
[This message has been edited by ditch (edited 07-27-2007).]
Funny that you should say that. I heard a 40 (or longer?) year mortgage advertised the other day. If you can't pay for a house in 30 years or less, you've got too much house.
I have heard of a 50 year mortgage in California....ugh.
Originally posted by ditch:The undeniable fact is that the rich keep getting richer and the poor keep getting poorer in America. We have an over abundace of greed in this country. My company is a perfect example. We have posted record profits in the last 8 quarters, yet they've cut our 401k benefits twice this year because "we're moving toward a contribution that is in line with the industry". They've also done away with annual cost of living raises. They say it's because we're a "forward thinking company". Whatever, it's because someone higher up wants more $$$.
Why do you think companies exist? To make YOU rich? Think about that.
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How many million do they need?
How many millions would YOU take, if you had the chance?
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It's because I don't mean a damn to them and they just assume milk me for what I'm worth while they can. Recently they started a site in Asia where they can pay someone 1/2 as much to do what I do. Where do you think my job will be in 5 years? It is attitudes like the ones my company owners have that are destroying this place
Companies need work done, and you need a job. You do your job, they give you a paycheck. That's the only obligation either of you has to eachother.
Sorry for the "tough love" approach, but people need to have some perspective on why companies exist.
Originally posted by fierobear: Why do you think companies exist? To make YOU rich? Think about that. .
I never said or implied that, so I don't need to think about that. I don't expect them to make me rich. I just expect them to treat their workers with respect....not a big request there.
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Originally posted by fierobear: How many millions would YOU take, if you had the chance?
none, I have character and would never turn on those who helped me build something....no matter how much $$$ I was offered. There is way more to life than cash. I don't need $1500 shower curtains to feel good about myself
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Originally posted by fierobear: Companies need work done, and you need a job. You do your job, they give you a paycheck. That's the only obligation either of you has to eachother.
I understand, but that doesn't mean I have to respect a place that would build itself using the blood and sweat of an american worker just to sell them down the river so the board of directors can each buy a 5th beachhouse in the bahamas. They have every right to do that but look what is left behind when they leave.
As an american, I believe I have a moral obligation to do the right thing in these circumstances....or, I could be a heartless and selfish POS.
[This message has been edited by ditch (edited 07-27-2007).]
It really depends on how you look at it. My 401k and mutual funds are doing great thanks to the current market. Sure it lost over 300pts recently but in general it has grown significantly over the last few years. My funds have averaged over a 10% return since 2004. Also, I have a great job, so my answer would be that the economy is fine.
Most of the answers posted here are going to be propotional to the situation that person is in.
The undeniable fact is that the rich keep getting richer and the poor keep getting poorer in America. We have an over abundace of greed in this country. My company is a perfect example. We have posted record profits in the last 8 quarters, yet they've cut our 401k benefits twice this year because "we're moving toward a contribution that is in line with the industry". They've also done away with annual cost of living raises. They say it's because we're a "forward thinking company". Whatever, it's because someone higher up wants more $$$. How many million do they need? It's because I don't mean a damn to them and they just assume milk me for what I'm worth while they can. Recently they started a site in Asia where they can pay someone 1/2 as much to do what I do. Where do you think my job will be in 5 years? It is attitudes like the ones my company owners have that are destroying this place
This is what America is turning into. It has been going this route for the past 2 decades. I feel as if we're moving towards 2 countries in one....the rich and the poor with few in between.
So, as I said before, the answer to the question depends on who you ask.
I agree with you 100%......would you mind sharing what your company does and if it's a union workforce or not.
I agree with you 100%......would you mind sharing what your company does and if it's a union workforce or not.
Would be glad to. I am a chemist in the pharmaceutical industry. We do contract work for pharmaceutical companies. We are involved in about every step of the drug development process....from preparing the drug substance to making it work in the human body. We are non union.
[This message has been edited by ditch (edited 07-27-2007).]
By TIM PARADIS  (AP) Tracer Mario Florio watches trading after the market opened in the S&P 500 futures trading pit at... Full Image
p {margin:12px 0px 0px 0px;} NEW YORK (AP) - Wall Street extended its steep decline Friday, propelling the Dow Jones industrials down more than 500 points over two days after investors gave in to mounting concerns that borrowing costs would climb for both companies and homeowners. It was the worst week for the Dow and the Standard & Poor's 500 index in five years. Investors cast aside a stronger-than-expected read on the economy and maintained negative sentiment that dominated Thursday when the market shuddered amid worries over the U.S. mortgage and corporate lending markets. Investors globally took flight from equities, shifting cash into safer investments in Treasury bonds. The pullback Thursday and Friday wiped out $526.1 billion in shareholder wealth from the stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 index. http://apnews.excite.com/ar...70727/D8QL7TB01.html
Don’t worry be happy.
I find it somewhat funny how all those, or at least most of the posters who said we are doing great are business owners.
Those that thought about how companies are sending jobs overseas thought differently.
This is one of the things I have a problem with you see, if a company only cares about the bottom line then they will send their work over seas. Leaving more and more Americans in a bad position. I have called it corporate mismanagement, but after thinking about it I see it is more corporate immorality.
And the only ones who really benefit from this are the higher ups, top of the food chain types.
More and more of them are getting taken down and put in jail, I love seeing that. But we need to look at the big picture. There are only so many jobs, most of those hurt by these downturns in the stock market are small investors who can’t afford these large losses.
People who can afford to loose are those with more money and less morals, who could care less about their workers.
I have said it before, I think we are loosing.
As ditch said
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Originally posted by ditch:
I understand, but that doesn't mean I have to respect a place that would build itself using the blood and sweat of an american worker just to sell them down the river so the board of directors can each buy a 5th beachhouse in the bahamas. They have every right to do that but look what is left behind when they leave.
As an american, I believe I have a moral obligation to do the right thing in these circumstances....or, I could be a heartless and selfish POS.
And this is obviously a man with an education. Like I said before in other threads an education isn’t going to help if companies send all the jobs overseas. Why should they pay what we are used to here when they can get it done someplace else for 1/10th the cost.
It is happening here and has been for many years yet few will admit it.
------------------ Technology is great when it works, and one big pain in the ass when it doesn't. Detroit iron rules all the rest are just toys.
Genuine asessment is that the economy is very strong. The strongest in quite some time. What makes folks uneasy is the instability they feel. We are in a phase where the eceonomy is very strong, but people don't feel secure financially (fear of job loss, etc), so they think the economy is tanking.
I think it depends on what part of the country you are in, and what your primary markets are.
Around these parts, job losses are mounting due to out-sourcing and plant closings are pretty common. A lot of us old-timers have taken big paycuts just to stay employeed, due to the increased competition with more people being out of work.
But im sure in other parts of the country, things are going well.
Oh no.. the economy is fine... Just buy that new car, sofa and house and be sure to get long term loans... everything is fune... just fine..
There has never been an economy where it's wise to buy more depreciating assets on credit than you can afford to pay off. Even housing isn't guaranteed to appreciate in the short term right now.
There's a difference between the economy's health and your budget's health.
I find it somewhat funny how all those, or at least most of the posters who said we are doing great are business owners.
Those that thought about how companies are sending jobs overseas thought differently.
This is one of the things I have a problem with you see, if a company only cares about the bottom line then they will send their work over seas. Leaving more and more Americans in a bad position. I have called it corporate mismanagement, but after thinking about it I see it is more corporate immorality...
I must be the exception.
I'm a typical wage slave for an electric utility. I have a two-year tech school certificate. (For what it's worth, I'm not union, but many of the employees in our company are. I feel like the non-union folks who do the same job actually have a better deal in a lot of cases.) But I digress.
I'm making more money than I've ever made in my life. More useable money. We're about to pay off a 30 year mortgage after ten years and one or two months. The same goes for most of the people in my group. And they're looking for people. My supervisor (whom I have known for years, and trust) told me that outsourcing is an idea whose time has largely come and gone. I don't know about other departments, but outsourced folks just can't do our jobs. There's a lot to be said for knowing what you're doing, and having been doing it for years.
Of course, the technology may come along that makes my job obsolete. That's been happening since... forever. I have already seen some signs of that. But the reality of it is, they can automate systems to hell and back, but they still need a "thinking" individual to make the final decision on what action is appropriate for a given set of circumstances. By the time I'm automated to the point of boredom (I really don't think I'll be automated out of a job) I'll be ready to retire.
Anyway... I didn't say all of that to brag. By most standards, I make a modest income. But as far as I'm concerned, the economy is doing okay. I certainly can't complain. At least from my perspective.
Possibly because I still remember Jimmy Carter's presidency. Home mortgages were like... 12%?!
[This message has been edited by Raydar (edited 07-27-2007).]
Might seem kinda funny but 208 point move is nothing when it come down to the grand scheme of things. Not too long ago it was thousands lower than it is today. hell I can remember when it was 10,000 points lower many moons ago. It goes up and down but so far always back up and set new records.
If this kind of thing stresses you out do not buy stocks. I have quite a bit in the market and I am not worried. I rarely pay attention much more than a few times a year. Sheesh after 911 there was a real fall. I know people that had leveraged to buy stocks (something I will not do) and panic sold thinking it would go down more and they would lose everything, well they lost big buy selling and are still paying for the loans. We kept ours and our stocks are worth much more today than they were before the fall. Well except that dam Lucent :-(
Funny how it gets sensationalized, almost like somebody wants to spread the fear. The value of our stocks and even our money is basically based on confidence so fear and panic will of course lower the value
Some will sell and hope the stocks fall and buy again, fine if they don't rebound on you. I am not a player but an investor and think mostly long term so small changes aren't worth sweating about.
I've been searching for the article I read just yesterday, but can't find it. I was doing some research regarding retirement planning and the article was stating how the economy is the strongest in some folks lifetimes, the major markets have been the highest they've ever been, etc. It stated in polls that majority of Americans felt the economy was sluggish, but as more questions were asked in the poll, the underlying reason was a general uneasiness about financial security (pensions are a thing of the past, social security drying up, housing slowing, etc).
I just wonder what the next "fad investment" is going to be.
I wonder how long it's going to take for this market to return to "normalcy". I'm sure you can add some insight, Todd.
Anyone want to speculate?
As for the Fad Investment if I could predict it I would start it! But if I have to speculate I am going to say it will be in the entertainment industry or communications. In the LONG term (20 years) I predict Transportation will be the next boom industry when Scramjet technology becomes a pratical reality.
As for a return to "normalcy" we are actually IN a normal market right now. People, young people in particular, have never seen a normal market. They grew-up in the boom times when everything you invested in turned into profit. They may have heard of the Great Depression or Stagflation in history class but they have no idea what a REAL market correction is.
We have the higest wages in the world, we have 6% mortgage rates, we have relatively cheap plentiful housing, we have the cheapest food in the world, we have near full employment, and we have the higest standard of living to be found anywhere.....why is everyone bitching again?
I'm a typical wage slave for an electric utility. I have a two-year tech school certificate. (For what it's worth, I'm not union, but many of the employees in our company are. I feel like the non-union folks who do the same job actually have a better deal in a lot of cases.) But I digress.
I'm making more money than I've ever made in my life. More useable money. We're about to pay off a 30 year mortgage after ten years and one or two months. The same goes for most of the people in my group. And they're looking for people. My supervisor (whom I have known for years, and trust) told me that outsourcing is an idea whose time has largely come and gone. I don't know about other departments, but outsourced folks just can't do our jobs. There's a lot to be said for knowing what you're doing, and having been doing it for years.
Of course, the technology may come along that makes my job obsolete. That's been happening since... forever. I have already seen some signs of that. But the reality of it is, they can automate systems to hell and back, but they still need a "thinking" individual to make the final decision on what action is appropriate for a given set of circumstances. By the time I'm automated to the point of boredom (I really don't think I'll be automated out of a job) I'll be ready to retire.
Anyway... I didn't say all of that to brag. By most standards, I make a modest income. But as far as I'm concerned, the economy is doing okay. I certainly can't complain. At least from my perspective.
Possibly because I still remember Jimmy Carter's presidency. Home mortgages were like... 12%?!
Originally posted by ditch: I never said or implied that, so I don't need to think about that. I don't expect them to make me rich. I just expect them to treat their workers with respect....not a big request there.
Of course, we'd all like to be able to expect our employers to respect us. I'm just trying to get across the idea that you may or may not be respected, but as long as they pay you for what you do, they are fulfilling their obligation. I don't mean to discount your feelings about how you would like to be treated. I'm just talking about realistic expectations.
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Originally posted by fierobear: none, I have character and would never turn on those who helped me build something....no matter how much $$$ I was offered. There is way more to life than cash. I don't need $1500 shower curtains to feel good about myself
Well, there is $1500 shower curtains and there is financial security. Again, would you turn down a million dollars?
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I understand, but that doesn't mean I have to respect a place that would build itself using the blood and sweat of an american worker just to sell them down the river so the board of directors can each buy a 5th beachhouse in the bahamas. They have every right to do that but look what is left behind when they leave.
No, you don't have to respect them other than doing your job as you are directed to do.
OK, let me approach this a different way. Where would you say you are in that company on the pay scale? In other words, are you the lowest paid? Middle? Or ??
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As an american, I believe I have a moral obligation to do the right thing in these circumstances....or, I could be a heartless and selfish POS.
You sound like a person of good character. Have you ever thought about starting your own business, and running it your way?
[This message has been edited by fierobear (edited 07-28-2007).]
doing about 40 to 50 thousand a week in sales of tires to farmers and their "support" staff. There has been a up in the last 3 out of 4 weeks, last was down. Whats up with the economy, ask the farmers...
I don't think it's the job, I think it's a person's attitude about the job that makes it a great sounding job.
Sure, I agree. But if most everyone has that attitude and they're looking for people - where do I sign up?
Where I work right now the pay is marginally acceptable (decent in the "I'm glad I have a job perspective), but most of the people I work with are burnt out and overworked. When something goes wrong, people are more interested in who to blame than fixing the problem. If the building was on fire, they'd want to know who started it before bothering to call the fire dept. It's a lot like the movie Office Space. If you work really hard, you just feel like you've been banging your head against the wall. There's no incentive to excel.
I'm looking for a place that rewards independant initiative and a "get it done" attitude - not one that takes it for granted.
To be honest, I'm pretty well settled in the Raleigh area, but if I found something good enough elsewhere.... I'd move.
Originally posted by Formula88: So where do I send my application? I'm serious.
I work in a glorified (I use the term very loosely) NOC. Our center monitors the IT infrastructure for the entire company. (There are backup centers, elsewhere, that can be turned up on very short notice.) Everything from the telecommunications equipment (fiber optics, microwave radio links, multiplexers, channel banks, etc.,) to network routers and switches, to servers, to mainframe, to the communications links that support the remote control/monitoring of the electric substations. What they're trying to do, now, is entice experienced internal people with a telecommunications background to transfer into the center. There's nothing open to the outside, right now. If anything opens up, I can let you know. What do you do?
As for attitude..? I'm probably as cynical as anybody. It's just that I'm a perfect fit for my job, and vice versa. That has very infrequently happened in my career. I have a tendency to be ADD. (God help me, If I was in school now, they'd have me pumped so full of ritalin that I'd float in and out of the classrooms. ) I respond to communications systems alarms, and work to troubleshoot the cause of those alarms. If I can't fix them with the resources at my disposal (lots of remote control admin type stuff) I send a ticket to the field to have a tech or analyst look at it. I very seldom have enough time to let my mind wander.
I work in a glorified (I use the term very loosely) NOC. Our center monitors the IT infrastructure for the entire company. (There are backup centers, elsewhere, that can be turned up on very short notice.) Everything from the telecommunications equipment (fiber optics, microwave radio links, multiplexers, channel banks, etc.,) to network routers and switches, to servers, to mainframe, to the communications links that support the remote control/monitoring of the electric substations. What they're trying to do, now, is entice experienced internal people with a telecommunications background to transfer into the center. There's nothing open to the outside, right now. If anything opens up, I can let you know. What do you do?
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As for attitude..? I'm probably as cynical as anybody. It's just that I'm a perfect fit for my job, and vice versa. That has very infrequently happened in my career. I have a tendency to be ADD. (God help me, If I was in school now, they'd have me pumped so full of ritalin that I'd float in and out of the classrooms. ) I respond to communications systems alarms, and work to troubleshoot the cause of those alarms. If I can't fix them with the resources at my disposal (lots of remote control admin type stuff) I send a ticket to the field to have a tech or analyst look at it. I very seldom have enough time to let my mind wander.
I set up these systems as a private contractor, I along with the other two guys I work with was offered a similar job on a site in Phoenix, I turned it down because of the weather in the summertime, and it would have been a pretty good paycut. I am interested in Georgia though. Let me know if a job opens up as well.
Originally posted by Raydar: Funny that you should say that. I heard a 40 (or longer?) year mortgage advertised the other day. If you can't pay for a house in 30 years or less, you've got too much house.
Banks control the economy thru interest, the fed. The reason 40 year loans are pushed is because banks need the money and it makes the nut alittle easier to bust for the average slob who now cant afford a 30 year. Taxes are going up because the govts need the money, prices are going up because shippers need the money for fuel, and fuel is going up because refiners cant make enough JP6 for all our hummers and APCs to burn just before they get blowed up and catch fire.
The enconomy is in shambles and now the market is "correcting" because reality is finally hitting home...
Last weeks paper. Note 1M in tax dollars being spent on race car to promote citrus industry. They arent doing so well either.
But the economy is strong... not need to panice, just buy buy buy like theres no tomorrow.
Oddly enough South Florida's housing is the least affected so far. California by comparison is down 700% as a whole feom 2000 sales. The biggest difference is the prices in housing. Cali is Premium, Florida is regular unleaded. I wonder how Toadster is makin out.
Oddly enough South Florida's housing is the least affected so far. California by comparison is down 700% as a whole feom 2000 sales. The biggest difference is the prices in housing. Cali is Premium, Florida is regular unleaded. I wonder how Toadster is makin out.
The only thing keeping the Florida Real Estate Market afloat is out of state investors. EVERYTHING in the state of Florida has a "For Rent" sign on it. Time shares and new large high rise developments with outside funding is pumping up the states numbers.
California has pockets of problems, Sacramento and Orange County are suffering badly due to overbuilding. When all you have is land and money to burn it seems like people can justify anything. The problem is that there is only so much need for housing and if everyone has a home already and no new jobs are being created you will end-up with excess inventory. The Bay Area is a different story. We added 33,000 new jobs in the last quarter of 2006 and we live in a bowl. They aren't making any more land here so prices and demand (although flatter than in recent years) are holding steady. Some areas of the Bay Area are hit harder than others but on the whole, it's still a good market.
As for Realtors in general, new laws in California are making it harder to get a license (not a bit too soon either). Many Realtors have bailed-out due to the correction and are making it easier for the real professionals to just get stronger. I'm actually on target for my best year ever in the business. I'd better do well too. Afterall, I have welfare recipients in Florida to support.
You'll let us know if you start writing a manifesto and start wearing sunglasses and a hoodie right?
For the record, the economy is doing great. consider we're in a war an pumping millions overseas, have a liberal congress that doesn't see a problem that can't be fixed with a program and more funding. My 401 is doing ok, my short time stocks are giving me a nice return every 6 months.
I'm not uber educated, I'm not a skilled tradesman, just found a nitch and a company that appreciates me and what I've learned about our systems.
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