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Total Deaths vs. COVID-19 by theBDub
Started on: 10-05-2020 10:12 AM
Replies: 95 (1071 views)
Last post by: Lambo nut on 10-19-2020 11:49 AM
theBDub
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Report this Post10-05-2020 10:12 AM Click Here to See the Profile for theBDubSend a Private Message to theBDubEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
I made a live report, updated every Wednesday directly from the CDC, that shows the impact COVID-19 has had on all deaths. You can create your own baseline for comparison, by either controlling for population or not, selecting or excluding certain years, or excluding certain weeks (due to this being provisional deaths, I recommend excluding the most recent 3-5 weeks).

The CDC has multiple databases to choose from. I selected the weekly data that compared COVID-19 with other primary causes, because I had gotten some questions on COVID-19's impact vs. the flu. You can also compare against other causes on the bottom left using the drop down.

By selecting a state, you can filter all of the visuals to data from that state.

I'm no expert, but the data is readily available from the CDC, and I decided to put this together to quickly show the overall impact we've seen. This is not cases, as each state reports cases so variably, that I don't find it that meaningful. Death, however, is fairly consistently reported.
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Report this Post10-05-2020 10:31 AM Click Here to See the Profile for olejoedadClick Here to Email olejoedadSend a Private Message to olejoedadEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
Nice work BDub.

The CDC data is corrupted in the sense that many covid reported deaths are simply due to the gunshot/traffic accident/falling down the stairs victims testing positive for the virus, even though the virus wasn't the cause of death.

Hopefully in the future, the causality numbers will be investigated and we will have a better picture of how this virus actually impacted our health.
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Report this Post10-05-2020 11:13 AM Click Here to See the Profile for rinselbergClick Here to visit rinselberg's HomePageClick Here to Email rinselbergSend a Private Message to rinselbergEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
"Roger that."

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Report this Post10-05-2020 11:49 AM Click Here to See the Profile for maryjaneSend a Private Message to maryjaneEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by olejoedad:

Nice work BDub.

The CDC data is corrupted in the sense that many covid reported deaths are simply due to the gunshot/traffic accident/falling down the stairs victims testing positive for the virus, even though the virus wasn't the cause of death.

Hopefully in the future, the causality numbers will be investigated and we will have a better picture of how this virus actually impacted our health.


I've asked this before of different people and thus far, no one has answered it other than extremely vague 'allegations'.

How many people nationwide, (in real numbers) have been counted as a covid death but really died from auto accident, gunshots, falling down the stairs and what % of the total 214,694 reported Covid deaths are they?

Numbers and a % please and some documentation to back those #s up would be a plus.

[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 10-05-2020).]

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Report this Post10-05-2020 11:53 AM Click Here to See the Profile for fierosoundClick Here to visit fierosound's HomePageClick Here to Email fierosoundSend a Private Message to fierosoundEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

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Report this Post10-05-2020 12:02 PM Click Here to See the Profile for olejoedadClick Here to Email olejoedadSend a Private Message to olejoedadEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
A study from Germany earlier this year indicated that a high percentage of C19 attributed deaths had underlying conditions that would have caused death before the end of the year.

I have family in the health care field that have been instructed that any patient or corpse that tests positive for C19, the death will be attributed to the virus. This includes patients with heart attacks but no symptoms of the virus, auto accident victims, gunshot victims, etc.

Money for nothing, cause the government checks are free.
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Report this Post10-05-2020 12:09 PM Click Here to See the Profile for theBDubSend a Private Message to theBDubEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
The report I made includes “all deaths,” so if COVID-19 deaths are just over counted from other deaths, we would expect all deaths to remain stable, while COVID-19 deaths “steal” from other causes. We don’t see that trend here.

All death is just accelerated death. We will all die at some point. The argument that it’s just sped up people who would already die isn’t useful, because we will all die.
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Report this Post10-05-2020 12:28 PM Click Here to See the Profile for rinselbergClick Here to visit rinselberg's HomePageClick Here to Email rinselbergSend a Private Message to rinselbergEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by theBDub:

The report I made includes “all deaths,” so if COVID-19 deaths are just over counted from other deaths, we would expect all deaths to remain stable, while COVID-19 deaths “steal” from other causes. We don’t see that trend here.

All death is just accelerated death. We will all die at some point. The argument that it’s just sped up people who would already die isn’t useful, because we will all die.

There are people (not me) that would likely say that (some of) the higher than expected number of deaths since the beginning of the pandemic are not the direct consequence of Covid-19 infections, but are the unintended consequences of the business-related shutdowns and other restrictions and conditions that have been mandated or encouraged by the various levels of government as the "Pandemic Response."

Actually, I would say that some of the higher than expected number of deaths since the beginning of the pandemic are not the direct consequence of Covid-19 infections, but arise from the unintended consequences of the Pandemic Response.

Of course there's another intersectional circle in the Venn diagram: The people who were Covid-19 positive before they died AND died in a way that can be categorized as arising from their reaction to (or situation arising from) the Pandemic Response.

But I have seen reports that there has been a reduction of some other communicable diseases--seasonal and out of season seasonal influenza, first and foremost--as a result of the social distancing, masking, and other reductions of face-to-face interactions and physical proximity that are comprised by the Pandemic Responses. That would be factored in as a downwards or diminishing contribution to the overall number of deaths. Except...

Except that in some cases, a person who might have gotten the "flu" and stayed home, actually did not get influenza and ventured outside their home and died in some kind of circumstance outside their home. On the other hand, since they didn't stay home, they could have avoided becoming a mortality statistic arising from a home accident of some kind. And it doesn't stop there.

[This message has been edited by rinselberg (edited 10-05-2020).]

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Report this Post10-05-2020 12:53 PM Click Here to See the Profile for theBDubSend a Private Message to theBDubEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by rinselberg:

There are people (not me) that would likely say that (some of) the higher than expected number of deaths since the beginning of the pandemic are not the direct consequence of Covid-19 infections, but are the unintended consequences of the various business-related shutdowns and other restrictions and conditions that have been mandated or encouraged by the various levels of government as the "Pandemic Response."

Actually, I would say that some of the higher than expected number of deaths since the beginning of the pandemic are not the direct consequence of Covid-19 infections, but arise from the unintended consequences of the Pandemic Response.

Of course there's another circle in the Venn diagram: The people who were Covid-19 positive before they died AND died in a way that can be categorized as arising from their reaction to (or situation arising from) the Pandemic Response.

But I have seen reports that there has been a reduction of some other communicable diseases--seasonal and out of season seasonal influenza, first and foremost--as a result of the social distancing, masking, and other reductions of face-to-face interactions and physical proximity that are comprised by the Pandemic Responses. That would be factored in as a downwards or diminishing contribution to the overall number of deaths. Except that in some cases, a person who might have gotten the "flu" and stayed home, actually did not get the flu and ventured outside their home and died in some kind of accident outside their home. On the other hand, since they weren't home, they could have escaped death at the hands of a violent home invasion kind of crime.

How's that for clarity?



Even though there are fewer people on the road, we have seen more fatal car crashes, due to reckless driving. I’ve heard we are also up in suicides. These externalities are cared for by seeing the variance between the trends. We have actually seen more excess deaths than we have COVID-19 deaths.

There are tons of changes in trends that we can see, but none would follow the same wave pattern that we see as a result of viral spread. The trend we see here is fairly clear—we have many COVID-19 deaths that are truly due to the virus and can’t be explained otherwise.
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Report this Post10-05-2020 12:55 PM Click Here to See the Profile for rinselbergClick Here to visit rinselberg's HomePageClick Here to Email rinselbergSend a Private Message to rinselbergEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
That's well said, BDub... theBDub.

I was trying to make my message even more ridiculous, even as you were wording your response.

[This message has been edited by rinselberg (edited 10-05-2020).]

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Report this Post10-05-2020 02:54 PM Click Here to See the Profile for maryjaneSend a Private Message to maryjaneEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by olejoedad:

A study from Germany earlier this year indicated that a high percentage of C19 attributed deaths had underlying conditions that would have caused death before the end of the year. **

I have family in the health care field that have been instructed that any patient or corpse that tests positive for C19, the death will be attributed to the virus. This includes patients with heart attacks but no symptoms of the virus, auto accident victims, gunshot victims, etc.

Money for nothing, cause the government checks are free.

So my question goes unanswered?

**That's pretty much irrelevant but, I'm reminded of the dialog in the first 1 minute of this video and specifically Earl's response to Val saying "so what, we'll be dead in 3 days"
I want to live those 3 days
I suspect very very much, that those people with underlying conditions would have liked very much to live a little longer too.

[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 10-05-2020).]

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Report this Post10-05-2020 03:26 PM Click Here to See the Profile for Jake_DragonSend a Private Message to Jake_DragonEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by olejoedad:

A study from Germany earlier this year indicated that a high percentage of C19 attributed deaths had underlying conditions that would have caused death before the end of the year.

I have family in the health care field that have been instructed that any patient or corpse that tests positive for C19, the death will be attributed to the virus. This includes patients with heart attacks but no symptoms of the virus, auto accident victims, gunshot victims, etc.

Money for nothing, cause the government checks are free.


I wonder how many of these deaths would have also happened say they got the flu or any of the other respiratory diseases that are common in large health facilities.
After spending 16 years working in a health care business I know how easy it is for a single vector to spread. One snot nosed kid can cause infections to all other patients.

I have been in hospitals and watched the cleaning staff come in and wipe the walls down with a cloth rag, wearing large rubber gloves that she was probably wearing when she started cleaning on the first floor.
Saw the same person stick her gloved fingers inside a water cup to pick it up so she could wipe down the counter.

After I was done this person didn't have a job but what about the rest of the staff that are not trained. So yes Covid is bad but the numbers are not being reported correctly.
If someone is terminal and then gets infected they should not be counted. If someone is in a car accident and dies due to complications then tests positive they should not be counted.
Its all numbers and bull **** .
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Report this Post10-05-2020 06:32 PM Click Here to See the Profile for theBDubSend a Private Message to theBDubEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by Jake_Dragon:


I wonder how many of these deaths would have also happened say they got the flu or any of the other respiratory diseases that are common in large health facilities.
After spending 16 years working in a health care business I know how easy it is for a single vector to spread. One snot nosed kid can cause infections to all other patients.

I have been in hospitals and watched the cleaning staff come in and wipe the walls down with a cloth rag, wearing large rubber gloves that she was probably wearing when she started cleaning on the first floor.
Saw the same person stick her gloved fingers inside a water cup to pick it up so she could wipe down the counter.

After I was done this person didn't have a job but what about the rest of the staff that are not trained. So yes Covid is bad but the numbers are not being reported correctly.
If someone is terminal and then gets infected they should not be counted. If someone is in a car accident and dies due to complications then tests positive they should not be counted.
Its all numbers and bull **** .


Did you click the report?

If the numbers aren’t accurate, how else do you describe the excess deaths?
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Report this Post10-05-2020 07:46 PM Click Here to See the Profile for Jake_DragonSend a Private Message to Jake_DragonEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by theBDub:


Did you click the report?

If the numbers aren’t accurate, how else do you describe the excess deaths?


where did you get your numbers?
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Report this Post10-05-2020 09:41 PM Click Here to See the Profile for theBDubSend a Private Message to theBDubEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by Jake_Dragon:


where did you get your numbers?


https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/W...ect-Causes/muzy-jte6

The data is updated weekly on Wednesdays. Mine should refresh Wednesday night and be ready Thursday morning.
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Report this Post10-06-2020 09:50 AM Click Here to See the Profile for blackramsClick Here to Email blackramsSend a Private Message to blackramsEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by theBDub:

The report I made includes “all deaths,” so if COVID-19 deaths are just over counted from other deaths, we would expect all deaths to remain stable, while COVID-19 deaths “steal” from other causes. We don’t see that trend here.

All death is just accelerated death. We will all die at some point. The argument that it’s just sped up people who would already die isn’t useful, because we will all die.


While, that is true, not separating out true COVID 19 numbers versus contributing factors skews the numbers and does not provide us with the real picture of how many deaths were actually caused by the COVID 19 virus. I'm a believer in masking up, social distancing and hand washing but, the question of why is not hard to answer.

Federal money is available for COVID 19 treatment. Hospitals have an incentive to report as many deaths as they can due to COVID 19.

Rams

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Report this Post10-06-2020 11:02 AM Click Here to See the Profile for maryjaneSend a Private Message to maryjaneEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Federal money is available for COVID 19 treatment. Hospitals have an incentive to report as many deaths as they can due to COVID 19.

It's actually a federally mandated requirement. Covid19 is a reportable/notifiable illness---cases as well as deaths.

 
quote
COVID-19 became a nationally notifiable disease, meaning that health departments are required to report cases of COVID-19. Systems like the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (NNDSS) collect and send data on cases of COVID-19 to CDC. This helps the agency monitor trends in cases within states and across the country.


There are also federal funds [incentatives] available (and has been for about a decade now) for medical facilities to report other illnesses and deaths from them as well. Seasonal flu being one of the big ones, but it's interesting that no one ever questions how many cases of or deaths by flu there have actually been. 'Probably' because that's (flu) the standard all the conspiracy theory folks like to use in trying the minimize the severity of Covi19.

But millions die of flu every year too and we don't shut down for it...

[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 10-06-2020).]

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Report this Post10-06-2020 11:25 AM Click Here to See the Profile for theBDubSend a Private Message to theBDubEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by blackrams:


While, that is true, not separating out true COVID 19 numbers versus contributing factors skews the numbers and does not provide us with the real picture of how many deaths were actually caused by the COVID 19 virus. I'm a believer in masking up, social distancing and hand washing but, the question of why is not hard to answer.

Federal money is available for COVID 19 treatment. Hospitals have an incentive to report as many deaths as they can due to COVID 19.

Rams


With all due respect, I’m failing to see what you mean.

These are all deaths. We could be 100% wrong on what deaths are marked for COVID-19, and we’d see about 240k excess deaths from what we’d expect this year. The next question we’d ask to that, is why? Where are those deaths coming from? It turns out that we have very small variance to that number in our COVID-19 deaths, indicating that our COVID-19 reported deaths may actually be very accurate.

To suppose that we are not accurate in reporting, I would like to see actual data that would show that. I hear your rebuttals and they totally make sense logically, but the data is the data, and the data doesn’t show that. The data suggests that the marked deaths are reported (mostly) correctly.
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Report this Post10-06-2020 11:33 AM Click Here to See the Profile for maryjaneSend a Private Message to maryjaneEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by theBDub:


With all due respect, I’m failing to see what you mean.

These are all deaths. We could be 100% wrong on what deaths are marked for COVID-19, and we’d see about 240k excess deaths from what we’d expect this year. The next question we’d ask to that, is why? Where are those deaths coming from? It turns out that we have very small variance to that number in our COVID-19 deaths, indicating that our COVID-19 reported deaths may actually be very accurate.

To suppose that we are not accurate in reporting, I would like to see actual data that would show that. I hear your rebuttals and they totally make sense logically, but the data is the data, and the data doesn’t show that. The data suggests that the marked deaths are reported (mostly) correctly.


Good luck with that. I've been asking for a couple of months now every time the subject comes up and so far....all I hear is crickets.
You WILL hear lots of rhetoric, conspiracy theories and hyperbole but little if any real or hard data to support them.

"A friend of my sister has a neighbor that has an aunt that is charge nurse in the ICU a few counties over and she said that nurse heard......."


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Report this Post10-06-2020 03:54 PM Click Here to See the Profile for theBDubSend a Private Message to theBDubEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by maryjane:


Good luck with that. I've been asking for a couple of months now every time the subject comes up and so far....all I hear is crickets.
You WILL hear lots of rhetoric, conspiracy theories and hyperbole but little if any real or hard data to support them.

"A friend of my sister has a neighbor that has an aunt that is charge nurse in the ICU a few counties over and she said that nurse heard......."



I think it’s hard to trust the government when they’ve proven they can’t be fully trusted. Our current president has blurred the lines more than anyone else with all of the fake news rhetoric. I understand the appeal and don’t blame someone for not trusting the media. In this case, we have data straight from the CDC that can be downloaded by anyone for free, so there is no excuse. I created this report in large part due to the incredible misunderstanding of the data and all of the rhetoric surrounding COVID-19.
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Report this Post10-06-2020 05:53 PM Click Here to See the Profile for BoondawgClick Here to Email BoondawgSend a Private Message to BoondawgEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by maryjane:


How many people nationwide, (in real numbers) have been counted as a covid death but really died from auto accident, gunshots, falling down the stairs and what % of the total 214,694 reported Covid deaths are they?



That's what I want to know.
I keep hearing people talk about people who died from auto accident, gunshots, falling down the stairs, etc. being counted as covid deaths.
It always seems to be hearsay.

Or is it just like anything Obama?
It has/had to be happening because it can/WILL be imagined...

[This message has been edited by Boondawg (edited 10-06-2020).]

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Report this Post10-06-2020 06:23 PM Click Here to See the Profile for 82-T/A [At Work]Send a Private Message to 82-T/A [At Work]Edit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by theBDub:


With all due respect, I’m failing to see what you mean.

These are all deaths. We could be 100% wrong on what deaths are marked for COVID-19, and we’d see about 240k excess deaths from what we’d expect this year. The next question we’d ask to that, is why? Where are those deaths coming from? It turns out that we have very small variance to that number in our COVID-19 deaths, indicating that our COVID-19 reported deaths may actually be very accurate.

To suppose that we are not accurate in reporting, I would like to see actual data that would show that. I hear your rebuttals and they totally make sense logically, but the data is the data, and the data doesn’t show that. The data suggests that the marked deaths are reported (mostly) correctly.



I assume you've seen the video from the Director of Health in Illinois who stated at a press conference that they are in fact including anyone who has COVID at time of death as a "COVID DEATH?" She even went on to say, "this includes deaths where the cause was completely unrelated to COVID, such as in an auto accident, etc."

I can try to find it, but don't want to go through the effort if you've already seen it.
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Report this Post10-06-2020 06:52 PM Click Here to See the Profile for Jake_DragonSend a Private Message to Jake_DragonEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by 82-T/A [At Work]:
I assume you've seen the video from the Director of Health in Illinois who stated at a press conference that they are in fact including anyone who has COVID at time of death as a "COVID DEATH?" She even went on to say, "this includes deaths where the cause was completely unrelated to COVID, such as in an auto accident, etc."

I can try to find it, but don't want to go through the effort if you've already seen it.


https://week.com/2020/04/20...aths-are-classified/
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Report this Post10-06-2020 08:10 PM Click Here to See the Profile for theBDubSend a Private Message to theBDubEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by 82-T/A [At Work]:
I assume you've seen the video from the Director of Health in Illinois who stated at a press conference that they are in fact including anyone who has COVID at time of death as a "COVID DEATH?" She even went on to say, "this includes deaths where the cause was completely unrelated to COVID, such as in an auto accident, etc."

I can try to find it, but don't want to go through the effort if you've already seen it.


How do you explain the large number of excess deaths this year, that follow the same trend line as COVID deaths?

Did you click on my report?
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Report this Post10-06-2020 08:21 PM Click Here to See the Profile for HudiniClick Here to Email HudiniSend a Private Message to HudiniEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
Deaths accelerated in old folks homes by COVID? People that would have died later rather than sooner? Deaths attributed to COVID so the nursing home doesn't get sued by the kids?

The whole truth may never be seen but the whole story has not been written as of yet.
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Report this Post10-06-2020 08:30 PM Click Here to See the Profile for 82-T/A [At Work]Send a Private Message to 82-T/A [At Work]Edit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by theBDub:

How do you explain the large number of excess deaths this year, that follow the same trend line as COVID deaths?

Did you click on my report?



No, sorry... I didn't want to read this whole thread, just kind of over all this stuff. There's no doubt that there were many deaths as a result of COVID. But you have to remember that there was a monetization incentive with labelling a death as being COVID-related.

Thanks Jake for finding the link: https://week.com/2020/04/20...aths-are-classified/

Yes... every state did this... but a lot of this is being politicized, so while all states are doing this, it was refreshingly honest that the Illinois Director of Health was simply frank about it.


I mean, no one doubts that COVID is bad, but the "death count" appears to be significantly exaggerated... and at this point, there's no way to really know, and no real benefit to anyone to go back and try to reevaluate every death.
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Report this Post10-06-2020 09:29 PM Click Here to See the Profile for theBDubSend a Private Message to theBDubEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by Hudini:

Deaths accelerated in old folks homes by COVID? People that would have died later rather than sooner? Deaths attributed to COVID so the nursing home doesn't get sued by the kids?

The whole truth may never be seen but the whole story has not been written as of yet.


Do you have any data that would indicate this? Or is this just a massive conspiracy by all states and nursing homes?

Could it be that it’s just.... COVID-19?
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Report this Post10-06-2020 09:33 PM Click Here to See the Profile for theBDubSend a Private Message to theBDubEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

theBDub

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quote
Originally posted by 82-T/A [At Work]:
No, sorry... I didn't want to read this whole thread, just kind of over all this stuff. There's no doubt that there were many deaths as a result of COVID. But you have to remember that there was a monetization incentive with labelling a death as being COVID-related.

Thanks Jake for finding the link: https://week.com/2020/04/20...aths-are-classified/

Yes... every state did this... but a lot of this is being politicized, so while all states are doing this, it was refreshingly honest that the Illinois Director of Health was simply frank about it.


I mean, no one doubts that COVID is bad, but the "death count" appears to be significantly exaggerated... and at this point, there's no way to really know, and no real benefit to anyone to go back and try to reevaluate every death.


Todd, how can the death count be significantly exaggerated, if the excess deaths are above the COVID-19 deaths?

Isn’t the simplest answer that COVID-19 really has killed 200k people, vs. hundreds of thousands of people all in on a lie?
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Report this Post10-06-2020 10:59 PM Click Here to See the Profile for maryjaneSend a Private Message to maryjaneEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by theBDub:


Do you have any data that would indicate this? Or is this just a massive conspiracy by all states and nursing homes?

Could it be that it’s just.... COVID-19?


Yep.

Exactly what is the definition regarding this context, for "significant" and "many" ?
???


I've seen people claim ' a lot' of the traffic accident deaths have been counted as Covid deaths.
Texas, in 2019 had 3,722 traffic fatalities. Divide that by 365 (days)and it's 10.2 traffic fatalities per day. Yesterday, 100 Texans died of Covid 19 according to John Hopkins Univ website and Worldometer website.

How many (or few) Texans dying in an auto accident that also had covid19 does it take to make those daily deaths all but statistically insignificant?......unless of course, one is prone to believe that every single traffic death in Texas is attributed to covid19.



So again...How many is "many" ?

[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 10-07-2020).]

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Report this Post10-07-2020 05:49 PM Click Here to See the Profile for 82-T/A [At Work]Send a Private Message to 82-T/A [At Work]Edit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by theBDub:


Todd, how can the death count be significantly exaggerated, if the excess deaths are above the COVID-19 deaths?

Isn’t the simplest answer that COVID-19 really has killed 200k people, vs. hundreds of thousands of people all in on a lie?



I think you're overthinking this, and I think you're looking at this from a political perspective.

The video I posted (I assume you watched it?) literally discusses how a COVID DEATH is classified. Every state follows the same guidelines for reporting. The Director of Health from Illinois says in a news briefing that they label any death a “COVID DEATH,” where it is determined that the patient had COVID during autopsy / time of death. She literally says (and I quote):


“That means you were already in hospice and had a couple of weeks left to live, and then found to have COVID, that would be counted as a COVID death.”


...she then goes on to say:

“That also means that technically, if you died of a clearly alternate cause, but still had COVID at the time of death, you are listed as a COVID death.”


... and then she says, “Everyone who is listed as a COVID death, does not mean that COVID was the cause of their death.”


For reference... there are 200k people who die EVERY SINGLE YEAR in the state of Texas alone. These deaths are anything from choking on hot dogs to tripping over the newspaper, to gunshots, to whatever. Conceivably, this math isn't hard...

Take a state's rolling year-to-year average of deaths... then when 2020 is over, you take the total number of deaths in that state (which would include /ACTUAL/ COVID deaths). You subtract the 2020 death toll from what would have been the estimated death toll for that year using trend-analysis from year to year. You take that number, and subtract it from the actual death count of 2020... and barring any other unforeseen catastrophes that year, you'd have your total amount.

But 2020 isn't over yet, and I don't think anyone really cares.

The only people who really WANT to sustain this high number is for political reasons.


I don't blame Trump for COVID deaths any more than I do deaths caused by hurricanes or flooding. We all know that Hillary Clinton, or Ronald Reagan, wouldn't have handled this any better.


So, no one is "lying..." per say, it's just a matter of classification. If you're going to look at what I said above, and disregard it, you are literally being partisan here. If you care enough, you can do the math with the simple formula I came up with once we get past 2020.

[This message has been edited by 82-T/A [At Work] (edited 10-07-2020).]

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Report this Post10-07-2020 09:13 PM Click Here to See the Profile for theBDubSend a Private Message to theBDubEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by 82-T/A [At Work]:
For reference... there are 200k people who die EVERY SINGLE YEAR in the state of Texas alone. These deaths are anything from choking on hot dogs to tripping over the newspaper, to gunshots, to whatever. Conceivably, this math isn't hard...

Take a state's rolling year-to-year average of deaths... then when 2020 is over, you take the total number of deaths in that state (which would include /ACTUAL/ COVID deaths). You subtract the 2020 death toll from what would have been the estimated death toll for that year using trend-analysis from year to year. You take that number, and subtract it from the actual death count of 2020... and barring any other unforeseen catastrophes that year, you'd have your total amount.



This is... literally what I did. Look at what I posted... the only difference being 2020 isn’t over, but why does that matter? Deaths aren’t final for over 2 years after the conclusion of a year. Up until then, it’s all provisional, the same data I’m using week over week.
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Report this Post10-07-2020 11:05 PM Click Here to See the Profile for Rickady88GTClick Here to Email Rickady88GTSend a Private Message to Rickady88GTEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by theBDub:


This is... literally what I did. Look at what I posted... the only difference being 2020 isn’t over, but why does that matter? Deaths aren’t final for over 2 years after the conclusion of a year. Up until then, it’s all provisional, the same data I’m using week over week.


I tried to look up the suicide rate "increase" but found nothing that says it actually went up. Just guessing and assumptions.
I know you did not say it did, but I also heard that it has gone up. I am interested in knowing if it is true. On the outside looking in, It makes sense but the data is lacking?
BTW, thanks for the work you put in on this subject
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Report this Post10-08-2020 05:09 PM Click Here to See the Profile for rinselbergClick Here to visit rinselberg's HomePageClick Here to Email rinselbergSend a Private Message to rinselbergEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
There's a new website "in town" that may be of interest to the forum members who have invested public messages ("posts") in this forum topic.

USAFacts "Nonpartisan Government Data"
https://usafacts.org

It's backed by Steve and Connie Ballmer.
 
quote
Steve Ballmer is the former CEO of Microsoft and current chairman of the LA Clippers basketball team. Connie Ballmer is a former marketer with a longstanding interest in the well-being of children. They founded Ballmer Group to make strategic investments in nonprofits to improve economic mobility for US families facing intergenerational poverty. USAFacts grew out of an understanding that government is the largest investor in citizens’ economic mobility, and the public needed access to see how the money is spent and the results.

We do not make grants and we do not advocate for any views of Steve or Connie Ballmer except for one: that facts matter and public data should be available and understandable.

https://usafacts.org/faq/#w...-are-they-doing-this

[This message has been edited by rinselberg (edited 10-08-2020).]

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Report this Post10-08-2020 08:53 PM Click Here to See the Profile for theBDubSend a Private Message to theBDubEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by Rickady88GT:


I tried to look up the suicide rate "increase" but found nothing that says it actually went up. Just guessing and assumptions.
I know you did not say it did, but I also heard that it has gone up. I am interested in knowing if it is true. On the outside looking in, It makes sense but the data is lacking?
BTW, thanks for the work you put in on this subject


My data doesn’t break out suicides, in part because many suicides are listed as natural cause for many reasons. I have heard the same. If I use a different source, I have to do a bit of data transformation to make it all line up correctly, so I won’t be adding that to this report.
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Report this Post10-08-2020 09:25 PM Click Here to See the Profile for Rickady88GTClick Here to Email Rickady88GTSend a Private Message to Rickady88GTEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by theBDub:


My data doesn’t break out suicides, in part because many suicides are listed as natural cause for many reasons. I have heard the same. If I use a different source, I have to do a bit of data transformation to make it all line up correctly, so I won’t be adding that to this report.


It's all good, just wondering.
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Report this Post10-08-2020 11:06 PM Click Here to See the Profile for maryjaneSend a Private Message to maryjaneEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by Rickady88GT:


It's all good, just wondering.

I have seen the same "Suicides are over the top since the shutdowns" but evrything I've read showed it is 'reportedly higher" but no stats to corroborate that claim.
There is data showing anxiety is higher, with 'more people having suicidal thoughts' but it has not been shown to translate into higher actual suicide rates. There HAS been a growing trend in the last 10 years of more suicides but the jury is still definitely out regarding whether there is any substantial Covid caused rate increase.

https://www.kxan.com/news/c...e-covid-19-pandemic/

https://factcheckni.org/art...-19-lockdown-period/

August 2020:
 
quote
CDC Director Robert Redfield also commented in July on a spike in suicides.

"There has been another cost that we've seen, particularly in high schools. We're seeing, sadly, far greater suicides now than we are deaths from COVID. We're seeing far greater deaths from drug overdose," said Redfield.

But experts also say it is too early to draw conclusions without solid data.

"There isn't any data that I've been able to find or that my colleagues in suicide prevention have been able to find to really back that up," said Julie Cerel, director of the Suicide Prevention and Exposure Laboratory at the University of Kentucky College of Social Work and a former president of the American Association of Suicidology.


https://www.adn.com/nation-...tes-heightens-worry/

[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 10-08-2020).]

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Report this Post10-09-2020 12:32 AM Click Here to See the Profile for Rickady88GTClick Here to Email Rickady88GTSend a Private Message to Rickady88GTEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by maryjane:


https://www.adn.com/nation-...tes-heightens-worry/



Thanks Don.
This is a real concern of mine. I acknowledge the reality of the vid, but how people cope with it and the entirety of this situation is still hazy.
Stay safe out there people.
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Report this Post10-09-2020 08:52 AM Click Here to See the Profile for 82-T/A [At Work]Send a Private Message to 82-T/A [At Work]Edit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by theBDub:

This is... literally what I did. Look at what I posted... the only difference being 2020 isn’t over, but why does that matter? Deaths aren’t final for over 2 years after the conclusion of a year. Up until then, it’s all provisional, the same data I’m using week over week.


Unless I'm misreading your post, you're obviously far more concerned about this than I am. I'm not willing to invest the time in this (reading your article) because I quite frankly don't really care. The deaths are each sad in their own right, but basic logic from all variables clearly shows this has been dramatically manipulated for political gain... which I suspect is also why you're so interested in it as well.


 
quote
Originally posted by Rickady88GT:

I tried to look up the suicide rate "increase" but found nothing that says it actually went up. Just guessing and assumptions.
I know you did not say it did, but I also heard that it has gone up. I am interested in knowing if it is true. On the outside looking in, It makes sense but the data is lacking?
BTW, thanks for the work you put in on this subject



Suicides have been going up every year, which many people contribute to pressures that are exasperated through social media. When times are tough, and individuals are in a difficult situation, social media can ultimately make people feel helpless in their own lives, when really, most of the things they would otherwise worry about are outside of their control anyway and wouldn't have even cared about 15-20 years ago anyway.

But there were several articles I posted in one of the other COVID threads. Suicides have gone up 30% in the military, and in another study it had doubled. There was one that suggested it had gone up over 600%, but I'm not sure I agree with the methodology. They usually link death by drug overdose as a suicide and while that is likely often mental-illness related (self medicating), it doesn't necessarily suggest the intent was death.

Since COVID started, I've now had 8 colleagues / friends kill themselves, so this hits me personally. Prior to that, I'd seen maybe 1 or 2 per year. Not a scientific study of course, and one of them took out his entire family of 4 kids with the wife helping. It was horrible. Never the less, the only bright spot in this election is if Biden DOES win, the media will immediately stop talking about the death toll, and everything in the news will magically become positive almost overnight, because that's how the media slants... so we can at least be done with "the world is ending" every single day from the main stream media.
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Report this Post10-09-2020 01:08 PM Click Here to See the Profile for maryjaneSend a Private Message to maryjaneEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
Peacetime military suicides have genrally risen ever since the end of WW2.

WASHINGTON – The suicide rate among active-duty troops increased in 2019, according to a Pentagon report released Thursday, and Army officials worry that stress caused by the COVID-19 pandemic may push figures higher in 2020.

Last year, the rate of suicide among active-duty troops was 25.9 per 100,000 troops, according to the Pentagon's annual report on suicide. The rate was 24.9 per 100,000 in 2018, and 21.9 per 100,000 in 2017. The rate has showed a steady increase from 2014, when the rate was 18.5 per 100,000 service members. The suicide rates in the National Guard and reserve components of the military remained stable last year, according to the report.

In all, 498 troops died by suicide in 2019.

Among all Americans, the suicide rate has increased 35% over the past 20 years, according to the National Institute of Mental Health. The suicide rate among all Americans was 14.2 per 100,000 in 2018, but the Pentagon's report states that after controlling for differences in age, suicide rates among troops are roughly equivalent or lower than the U.S. population.

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Report this Post10-09-2020 10:01 PM Click Here to See the Profile for theBDubSend a Private Message to theBDubEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by 82-T/A [At Work]:

Unless I'm misreading your post, you're obviously far more concerned about this than I am. I'm not willing to invest the time in this (reading your article) because I quite frankly don't really care. The deaths are each sad in their own right, but basic logic from all variables clearly shows this has been dramatically manipulated for political gain... which I suspect is also why you're so interested in it as well.



It’s not an article lol it’s a Power BI report. Just click the link. You’ve spent far more time typing than the <30 seconds it would take to look at the visuals lol.

I made the report because many people believe as you do—that the deaths are exaggerated. There is a logical explanation for why you feel that way, including videos you’ve linked to me.

But when you look at the actual data of all deaths, regardless of any cause, just all deaths, it shows that the reported COVID-19 deaths are not only directionally correct, but possibly understated. In effect, you are wrong. It’s definitely confusing to sift through all of the media reports, but the deaths are truly and actually (mostly) as stated.
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