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'Georgia on My Mind.' Covid-19 data plot with Outside The Box methodology, fun4Rachel by rinselberg
Started on: 05-17-2020 01:28 AM
Replies: 5 (115 views)
Last post by: rinselberg on 05-21-2020 01:57 PM
rinselberg
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Report this Post05-17-2020 01:28 AM Click Here to See the Profile for rinselbergClick Here to visit rinselberg's HomePageClick Here to Email rinselbergSend a Private Message to rinselbergEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
fun4Rachel = fun (sort of) for MSNBC's Rachel Maddow (or Mad-cow, for those who insist)

video from The Rachel Maddow Show; May 15, 2020.
https://www.youtube.com/wat...ature=youtu.be&t=568


It was a data plot of Covid-19 cases for five counties in Georgia, published online and almost a week ago by the Georgia Department of Public Health.

One of the first to critique this document was "one" Stephen Fowler, who used Twitter to describe the novelty of how the data was presented:
https://twitter.com/stphnfw.../1259589739801456640

An X-axis of days that are not in chronological order. A repeating pattern of five vertical bars for the five counties, but with each new day, the bars are shuffled and presented in a different sequence from left to right. Close enough for government work? Or just plain and simple SNAFU?


Here's how it was reported in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution online:
 
quote
Where does Sunday take place twice a week? And May 2 come before April 26?

The state of Georgia, as it provides up-to-date data on the COVID-19 pandemic.In the latest bungling of tracking data for the novel coronavirus, a recently posted bar chart on the Georgia Department of Public Health’s website appeared to show good news: new confirmed cases in the counties with the most infections had dropped every single day for the past two weeks.

In fact, there was no clear downward trend. The data is still preliminary, and cases have held steady or dropped slightly in the past two weeks. Experts agree that cases in those five counties were flat when Georgia began to reopen late last month.

DPH changed the graph Monday after more than a day of online mockery, public concern and a letter from a state representative. Gov. Brian Kemp’s office issued an apology and its spokespeople said they’d never make this kind of mistake again.

<SNIP>

‘It’s just cuckoo’: state’s latest data mishap causes critics to cry foul
Willoughby Mariano and J. Scott Trubey for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution; May 13, 2020.
https://www.ajc.com/news/st...PpUvUX9XEF8vO11NVGO/


THE NEW MATH

[This message has been edited by rinselberg (edited 05-17-2020).]

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Report this Post05-17-2020 03:45 AM Click Here to See the Profile for maryjaneSend a Private Message to maryjaneEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
I suppose they were hoping people wouldn't pay any attention to the dates and think "Oh look..things are getting soo much better now"

Those easily led, are easily led astray.
.....cases total..deaths..active cases..
Tx 47,672 1,340 19,462
Fla 44,811 1,965 35,208
Md 37,968 1,957 33,205
Ga 37,212 1,598 35,274

This won't parse out correctly here since it came from a different format data sheet, but you can figure it out...maybe.

State..Total..new......deaths..newdeaths..active..case/mil
May 16
Mich 50,504 4,880 17,390 5,057 489
Texas 47,672 1,340 19,462 1,644 46
Fla 44,811 1,965 35,208 2,086 91
Md 37,968 1,957 33,205 6,280 324
Ga 37,212 1,598 35,274 3,505 151

May 15
Mich 50,079 +497 4,825 +38 22,568 5,014 483
Texas 46,787 +2,012 1,308 +50 19,269 1,614 45
Fla 44,138 +928 1,918 +42 34,841 2,055 89
Md 36,986 +1,083 1,911 +45 32,619 6,118 316
Ga 36,772 +795 1,588 +44 34,844 3,463 150

(May14 missed due to death in family)

May 13
Mich 48,391 +370 4,714 +40 20,991 4,845 472
Texas 43,502 +1,636 1,217 +38 18,602 1,500 42
Fla 42,402 +479 1,829 +47 33,480 1,974 85
Ga 35,427 +579 1,517 +23 33,570 3,337 143

May 12
Fla 41,923 1,782 33,048 1,952 83
Texas 41,866 1,179 16,436 1,444 41
Ga 34,848 1,494 33,014 3,282 141
Ct 34,333 3,041 28,363 9,630 853

May 11
Fla 40,982 +386 1,735 +14 38,201 1,908 81
Texas 40,855 +965 1,153 +20 16,110 1,409 40
Ga 34,002 +494 1,444 +39 32,218 3,202 136
Ct 33,765 +211 3,008 +41 30,692 9,470 844


May 10
Fla 40,596 +595 1,721 +5 37,829 1,890 80
Texas 39,285 +643 1,115 +4 14,581 1,355 38
Ct 33,554 +570 2,967 +35 30,522 9,411
Ga 33,441 +859 1,405 +4 31,696 3,150 132

May 9
Fla 40,001 +802 1,716 +47 37,239 1,862 80
Texas 38,642 +915 1,111 +32 13,942 1,333 38
Ct 32,984 +573 2,932 +58 29,987 9,251 822
Ga 32,582 +404 1,401 +2 30,841 3,069 132

May 8
Fla 39,199 +371 1,669 +69 36,844 1,825 78
Texas 37,727 +1,177 1,079 +50 17,044 1,301 37
Ct 32,411 +627 2,874 +77 29,472 9,091 806
Ga 32,178 +598 1,399 +51 30,439 3,031 132

(May 7--missed)

May 6
Fla 38,002 +563 1,539 +68 35,777 1,845 75
Texas 35,330 +1,092 1,006 +46 16,637 1,267 36
Ct 30,995 +374 2,718 +85 28,212 8,654 759
Ga 30,739 +847 1,327 +32 29,072 2,985 129

May 4
Fla 37,439 +542 1,471 +72 35,282 1,818 71
Texas 34,238 +1,211 960 +45 16,613 1,228 34
Ct 30,621 +448 2,633 +77 27,923 8,550
La 29,996 +323 2,115 +51 7,565 6,432
Ga 29,892 +454 1,295 +49 28,257 2,903 126

May 3
Texas 33,058 +31 915 15,522 1,186 33
Ct 30,173 2,556 27,552 8,425 714
La 29,673 2,064 10,306 6,363 443
Ga 29,438 1,246 27,852 2,859 121

May 2
Texas 31,142 +1,249 874 +25 15,377 1,117 31
Ct 29,287 +523 2,436 +97 26,786 8,177 680
La 29,140 +429 1,993 +23 9,844 6,248 427
Georgia 28,332 +836 1,174 +8 27,127 2,751 114

May 1
Texas 29,893 +1,438 849 +47 16,537 1,072 30
Ct 28,764 +1,064 2,339 +82 26,360 8,031 653
La 28,711 +710 1,970 +65 9,438 6,156 422
Georgia 27,496 +1,232 1,166 +34 26,299 2,670 119

Apr 30
Texas 28,455 +889 802 +53 15,146 1,020 29
La 28,001 +341 1,905 +60 8,793 6,004 408
Conn 27,700 +933 2,257 +89 25,378 7,734 630
Georgia 26,264 +613 1,132 +34 25,101 2,551

[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 05-17-2020).]

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Wichita
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Report this Post05-17-2020 09:41 AM Click Here to See the Profile for WichitaClick Here to Email WichitaSend a Private Message to WichitaEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
Colorado just revised their deaths down by over 20%. To basically start counting accurantly those that have died from complications of Covid-19, versus what they were using before, which is those that died but tested positive for Covid-19.

Basically 1 out of 5 people that died, may have been positive but their complications causing death were not caused by Covid.

That is why there are hugh numbers of nursing home deaths and they are contributing that to Covid-19. But people don't know that death in nursing homes is a regular occurrence all the time.

We also know that this virus is not nearly as dangerous as the shutdown orders had us believing in during the beginning of this panic.


We have now turned COVID-19 to that of a political football rather than anything based on science now.

China shutdown Wuhan for 79 days, the rest of the country for 14 days and they reopened and stopped counting, because this isn't a big deal they have learned.

We are still under shutdown in many states going on 90-days or longer. For what? For what?
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Report this Post05-17-2020 11:21 AM Click Here to See the Profile for maryjaneSend a Private Message to maryjaneEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
To save people's lives, tho I do realize for many, that is not anywhere near as important as making money and certainly not as important as having a good economy entering the election period..THAT, is the real fear gripping this nation.... that the GOP will lose because of the lockdowns and higher unemployment rates. I would hazard a guess that a high % of conservatives are running very very scared of losing the senate and white house far moreso than the faux fear they allege the rest of the nation is of the virus.
China shuts down another city

[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 05-17-2020).]

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Report this Post05-17-2020 02:17 PM Click Here to See the Profile for WichitaClick Here to Email WichitaSend a Private Message to WichitaEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by maryjane:

To save people's lives, tho I do realize for many, that is not anywhere near as important as making money and certainly not as important as having a good economy entering the election period..THAT, is the real fear gripping this nation.... that the GOP will lose because of the lockdowns and higher unemployment rates. I would hazard a guess that a high % of conservatives are running very very scared of losing the senate and white house far moreso than the faux fear they allege the rest of the nation is of the virus.
China shuts down another city




7,500 - 8,000 people die a day in the USA. So since shutdown well over 500,000 people have died. I guess we need to keep sheltering in place forever.


You know, for some, pandemic life is no different than normal life.

[This message has been edited by Wichita (edited 05-17-2020).]

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Report this Post05-21-2020 01:57 PM Click Here to See the Profile for rinselbergClick Here to visit rinselberg's HomePageClick Here to Email rinselbergSend a Private Message to rinselbergEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
"How Could the CDC Make That Mistake?"
 
quote
The government’s disease-fighting agency is conflating viral and antibody tests, compromising a few crucial metrics that governors depend on to reopen their economies. Pennsylvania, Georgia, Texas, and other states are doing the same.

Alexis C Madrigal and Robinson Meyer for The Atlantic; May 21, 2020.
 
quote
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is conflating the results of two different types of coronavirus tests, distorting several important metrics and providing the country with an inaccurate picture of the state of the pandemic. We’ve learned that the CDC is making, at best, a debilitating mistake: combining test results that diagnose current coronavirus infections with test results that measure whether someone has ever had the virus. The upshot is that the government’s disease-fighting agency is overstating the country’s ability to test people who are sick with COVID-19. The agency confirmed to The Atlantic on Wednesday that it is mixing the results of viral and antibody tests, even though the two tests reveal different information and are used for different reasons.

This is not merely a technical error. States have set quantitative guidelines for reopening their economies based on these flawed data points.

Several states—including Pennsylvania, the site of one of the country’s largest outbreaks, as well as Texas, Georgia, and Vermont—are blending the data in the same way. Virginia likewise mixed viral and antibody test results until last week, but it reversed course and the governor apologized for the practice after it was covered by the Richmond Times-Dispatch and The Atlantic. Maine similarly separated its data on Wednesday; Vermont authorities claimed they didn’t even know they were doing this.

. . .

The complete report can be read or browsed online without having a subscription for The Atlantic.
https://www.theatlantic.com...eorgia-texas/611935/

[This message has been edited by rinselberg (edited 05-21-2020).]

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