Click here to visit The FieroStore | View all sponsors
  Pennock's Fiero Forum
  Totally O/T
  Technology adoption curve (Page 1)

Post New Topic  Post A Reply
Email This Page to Someone! | Printable Version

This topic is 4 pages long:  1   2   3   4 
Previous Page | Next Page
next newest topic | next oldest topic
Technology adoption curve by Wichita
Started on: 09-10-2017 10:39 PM
Replies: 133 (1009 views)
Last post by: jmbishop on 09-26-2017 03:39 PM
Wichita
Member

Posts: 18592
From: Wichita, Kansas
Registered: Jun 2002


Feedback score: N/A
Leave feedback





Total ratings: 318
Rate this member

Report this Post09-10-2017 10:39 PM Click Here to See the Profile for WichitaClick Here to Email WichitaSend a Private Message to WichitaEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

I'm sure some of you are aware of the technology adoption curve.




I was reading about electric vehicle adoption and the number of countries, including China who already are planning to end the production and sales of gasoline and diesel powered vehicles within a couple of decades.

Others have claimed that the electric (full electric powered, not hybrids) are considered in the early adoption stage of the technology adoption curve.

With Tesla Model 3 with 400,000 already reserved with deposits, Nissan Leaf has sold more than 250,000, and more than 2 million electric vehicles on the road now, it is only a matter of time before the production starts really taking off.

I'll make the prediction that electric vehicles will be the majority in the western world by 2030 easy.

IP: Logged

TheDigitalAlchemist
Member

Posts: 10472
From: Long Island, NY
Registered: Jan 2012


Feedback score: (5)
Leave feedback





Total ratings: 91
Rate this member

Report this Post09-10-2017 10:47 PM Click Here to See the Profile for TheDigitalAlchemistClick Here to visit TheDigitalAlchemist's HomePageClick Here to Email TheDigitalAlchemistSend a Private Message to TheDigitalAlchemistEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

Was pondering the other day the fact that my kids will never teach their kids how to pump gas.

I wonder what the "magic number/machine" is? 15,000 self-driving electric "commuter" car?

[This message has been edited by TheDigitalAlchemist (edited 09-10-2017).]

IP: Logged

jmbishop
Member

Posts: 3991
From: Probably Texas
Registered: Jul 2006


Feedback score: N/A
Leave feedback





Total ratings: 160
Rate this member

Report this Post09-10-2017 10:59 PM Click Here to See the Profile for jmbishopClick Here to Email jmbishopSend a Private Message to jmbishopEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

I've already adopted one. I got my leaf used for a fraction of what they cost new, I'll probably buy a model 3 used but I don't expect the value of it to drop the way the leaf did. The leaf still isn't great for the majority, the model 3 is the same price new and will fit the needs of a much larger part of the market.

IP: Logged

spark1
Member

Posts: 11029
From: Benton County, OR
Registered: Dec 2002


Feedback score: (1)
Leave feedback





Total ratings: 175
Rate this member

Report this Post09-11-2017 01:08 AM Click Here to See the Profile for spark1Send a Private Message to spark1Edit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

 
quote
Originally posted by TheDigitalAlchemist:

Was pondering the other day the fact that my kids will never teach their kids how to pump gas.

I wonder what the "magic number/machine" is? 15,000 self-driving electric "commuter" car?



Only saw one of the gas pumps that were manual pumps on a trip when I was very young. You would tell the attendant how many gallons you wanted and they would pump gas into a glass bowl till the gallons ordered appeared. Then the gas was released into the car tank by gravity. The manual pumps were probably all gone by 1950.

[This message has been edited by spark1 (edited 09-11-2017).]

IP: Logged

MidEngineManiac
Member

Posts: 22085
From: Deplorableland
Registered: Feb 2007


Feedback score: N/A
Leave feedback





Total ratings: 292
Rate this member

Report this Post09-11-2017 01:38 AM Click Here to See the Profile for MidEngineManiacSend a Private Message to MidEngineManiacEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

Its not just countries that follow that curve, individuals do to.

For me its been Windows, and computers in general. 95/98/XP I could do just about anything with. It was a challenge I enjoyed and I didnt care if it took a weekend . By 7 it was getting tougher to figure out, 8/8.1 was a struggle and now with this new machine on 10 I just don't give a crap. I will spend 10 minutes researching a problem, then ask on my forums, and if I aint got it solved in a few hours I'll just let MS support remote-access the machine and they can figure it out.

Like right now, I am having a DVD issue. The DVD drive wont autoplay or run even store-bought CDs/DVDs. When the drive is right-clicked the option to explore isnt there. (meaning I cant manually start an install of anything). It just wants to format everything then kicks an error message that the disk is write-protected. I looked up the problem, changed the recommended settings and it didn't fix it...so in the morning I am just jumping on support and they can earn thier pay.

15 years ago, I wouldn't have quit, gone to bed or taken a break until I had solved it.

[This message has been edited by MidEngineManiac (edited 09-11-2017).]

IP: Logged

MidEngineManiac
Member

Posts: 22085
From: Deplorableland
Registered: Feb 2007


Feedback score: N/A
Leave feedback





Total ratings: 292
Rate this member

Report this Post09-11-2017 02:28 AM Click Here to See the Profile for MidEngineManiacSend a Private Message to MidEngineManiacEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

On the whole 100% electric vehicle pipe-dream...I'd like to know just who they think is going to pay for the generation and power-distribution capacity to charge all those EV's ? It took over a century of growth to build the fossil-fuel distribution network.

My take on it is there wont be any building getting done, and once the dreamers and social-engineers get smacked in the face by reality, electric cars and truck will become a niche-market vehicle option in the short-term(up to 50 years). In 100 they might have taken over, but I doubt it.

They other option to consider (tinfoil hat on) is the social-engineers are trying to force everyone into urban high-density housing with bicycles or public transit only. Keep the useless eaters well confined and easily controlled.

IP: Logged

jmbishop
Member

Posts: 3991
From: Probably Texas
Registered: Jul 2006


Feedback score: N/A
Leave feedback





Total ratings: 160
Rate this member

Report this Post09-11-2017 05:53 AM Click Here to See the Profile for jmbishopClick Here to Email jmbishopSend a Private Message to jmbishopEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

If we forget about the social engineering, the market wants and has always wanted electric cars and cheaper energy sources. If I buy new construction and I can finance the solar panels with my house completely powering my house and able to charge my car, why wouldn't I?

We are to the point where centralized power production could start to decrease, this is bad for government and you're already starting to see the left try to villianize solar. http://grist.org/climate-en...nti-solar-arguments/ However the biggest fraud was the tax incentives that required certified installers that charged 5x the price necessary on the actual install to qualify for the rebates. To give you an example of how bad the certified installers inflated the price, a few years ago a 10kw system was priced around 10k for the install and 10k for the panels. 40% back and that inventive only being applied with certified installers means the incentives where really paying for 80% of the install. I inquired about having a roof replaced after an install, the quoted price to remove the panels and reinstall the was shockingly low(it.s not covered by any incentives either) and the prices I got where between $500-$1000. If that's the case, what's the other roughly 9k for? The install of the inverter?

Expect to see rooftop solar become illegal in some cases as people start doing more themselves and cutting out the people looking to skim off the top(think rain water collection). Home solar production is becoming viable and it's bad for big government. This is why we saw such a big push for centralized solar that ultimately ended up failing and wind farms.

IP: Logged

E.Furgal
Member

Posts: 10907
From:
Registered: Mar 2012


Feedback score:    (23)
Leave feedback





Total ratings: 266
Rate this member

Report this Post09-11-2017 06:58 AM Click Here to See the Profile for E.FurgalClick Here to Email E.FurgalSend a Private Message to E.FurgalEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

electric cars, want to know the pulse of this.. look at the lack of investment in re building and upgrading your electric grid..
No way in hell in a few decades will electrics even have 50% of the market.. Anywhere, no matter the country..
At the moment people buy because the government is handing out 7500.00 tax break.. and electric power is somewhat cheap..
But where do you think the money to up grade and get to 3 times the power production we are at today going to come from, the electric companies will have to jack rates up. and when that happens, the electric won't be as cheap to run.. Also. As the local and fed see the fuel tax till get smaller and smaller they will move to a mile tax. taking that bypassing of a fuel tax out of the electric car..
A storm like Texas had or fla is having and a few weeks or more without power.. Hello, hi boss I won't be in until there is power, well don't bother you are fired..
Look at the state of cali, they have rolling black outs all summer.. you want to add charging vehicles to that shakey grid.

Then you have the same greenies that are pushing for everyone to drive electric, but will not allow a nuke power plant, will not allow a hydro power plant (it might harm the fishie), coal forget about it, N/G there isn't enough , not for that boost in power production to have even 50% of the vehicles on the road electric..

Even if every roof had solar panels and a wind farm on top of every building above the solar panels.. we could not produces enough power..

The electric vehicle taking over is a pipe dream.. cause unless you get everyone on board to have their electric bill get 10 times what it is now, and get greenies to stop with the not in my back yard, and the no nukes no hydro mantra.. and they started rebuilding the grid 15 years ago. then maybe,, but nope..

oh, and to get that n/g it take fracking, a greenie no no..

IP: Logged

RayOtton
Member

Posts: 3023
From: Cape Charles, VA, USA
Registered: Jul 2012


Feedback score: N/A
Leave feedback

Rate this member

Report this Post09-11-2017 07:10 AM Click Here to See the Profile for RayOttonClick Here to Email RayOttonSend a Private Message to RayOttonEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

I have no idea what's going to happen with electric cars but I can tell you this.

Lithium mining is a pretty dreadful process but Lithium mining stocks are a good investment right now.

IP: Logged

Hank is Here
Member

Posts: 4266
From: Harrisburg, Pa
Registered: Sep 2000


Feedback score: (1)
Leave feedback





Total ratings: 101
Rate this member

Report this Post09-11-2017 09:26 AM Click Here to See the Profile for Hank is HereSend a Private Message to Hank is HereEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

Maybe I am a "laggard" but I never see gasoline and diesel cars and trucks gonig completly away. As I see it there will always be a market for vehicls that don't need the cord and offer great versatility. I really see a world where electric and petrol vehicles co-exist.

IP: Logged

MadMark
Member

Posts: 2351
From: Owosso, Michigan, USA
Registered: Feb 2010


Feedback score: (4)
Leave feedback

Rate this member

Report this Post09-11-2017 05:53 PM Click Here to See the Profile for MadMarkClick Here to Email MadMarkSend a Private Message to MadMarkEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

Solar electric is a losing proposition in the state of Michigan where I live. We live up around the 45 parallel, so that in the winter the amount solar energy we see is pretty low even when the sun shines. Which it doesn't do much of here in Michigan's winters. Top that off with less than 50% of the day being dark and no solar energy and you don't get much for your bucks spent on the solar panels.

So just how many panels would it take to charge up your Chevy Volt or some other electric car? Or do you just propose to use that electricity that comes from the power company? Which most likely is using some kind of fossil fuel which then just shifts the pollution to someplace else. That way you can pat yourself on the back for being so green while still polluting the heck out of somebody else's backyard. Oh and the other minerals that are used in electric cars and the lithium cause problems too.

So probably for my life time I will continue to use my petrol powered cars.

IP: Logged

jmbishop
Member

Posts: 3991
From: Probably Texas
Registered: Jul 2006


Feedback score: N/A
Leave feedback





Total ratings: 160
Rate this member

Report this Post09-11-2017 06:22 PM Click Here to See the Profile for jmbishopClick Here to Email jmbishopSend a Private Message to jmbishopEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

 
quote
Originally posted by MadMark:
Or do you just propose to use that electricity that comes from the power company? Which most likely is using some kind of fossil fuel which then just shifts the pollution to someplace else. That way you can pat yourself on the back for being so green while still polluting the heck out of somebody else's backyard. Oh and the other minerals that are used in electric cars and the lithium cause problems too.


Who cares? Really, it's a straw man argument unless someone has told you that's the reason they bought it.

You do make a good point about your region but it's a very short sighted argument. Solar panels will become cheaper and more efficient and may one day soon be cost effective enough to use in your area.

And to give you an idea on an electric cars usage(a rough idea as not all the wattage is used for the full charge cycle) you need a 40a fused 220v supply for a level 2 charger, that will fully charge a leaf in 4 hours. My electric bill is cheaper than it's ever been, I never broke $200 this summer(Texas, past summers I've been in the $250s) because when I got my electric car I signed up for a service called Energy Ogre. A few cents less on my utility bill and I didn't even notice an impact while charging my car.

[This message has been edited by jmbishop (edited 09-11-2017).]

IP: Logged

MidEngineManiac
Member

Posts: 22085
From: Deplorableland
Registered: Feb 2007


Feedback score: N/A
Leave feedback





Total ratings: 292
Rate this member

Report this Post09-11-2017 06:22 PM Click Here to See the Profile for MidEngineManiacSend a Private Message to MidEngineManiacEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

 
quote
Originally posted by MadMark:


So probably for my life time I will continue to use my pedal powered cars.


FTFY !!!

IP: Logged

Wichita
Member

Posts: 18592
From: Wichita, Kansas
Registered: Jun 2002


Feedback score: N/A
Leave feedback





Total ratings: 318
Rate this member

Report this Post09-11-2017 08:15 PM Click Here to See the Profile for WichitaClick Here to Email WichitaSend a Private Message to WichitaEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

The Green aspect is not what will push the adoption rate of electric vehicles. They will be adopted because they will be cheaper to buy and operate.

There are already 5 Gigafactoies being built and another 4 planned. Some automakers have already announced that after 2020 they will no longer manufacture full ICE vehicles. There is already a full nation wide network of chargers, allowing one to drive coast to coast and that network is going to get much larger real quick.

The news even noted that these Tesla owners being able to evacuate Florida while everyone else is stalled fighting for gasoline.

IP: Logged

E.Furgal
Member

Posts: 10907
From:
Registered: Mar 2012


Feedback score:    (23)
Leave feedback





Total ratings: 266
Rate this member

Report this Post09-11-2017 09:08 PM Click Here to See the Profile for E.FurgalClick Here to Email E.FurgalSend a Private Message to E.FurgalEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

 
quote
Originally posted by jmbishop:


Who cares? Really, it's a straw man argument unless someone has told you that's the reason they bought it.

You do make a good point about your region but it's a very short sighted argument. Solar panels will become cheaper and more efficient and may one day soon be cost effective enough to use in your area.

And to give you an idea on an electric cars usage(a rough idea as not all the wattage is used for the full charge cycle) you need a 40w fused 220v supply for a level 2 charger, that will fully charge a leaf in 4 hours. My electric bill is cheaper than it's ever been, I never broke $200 this summer(Texas, past summers I've been in the $250s) because when I got my electric car I signed up for a service called Energy Ogre. A few cents less on my utility bill and I didn't even notice an impact while charging my car.


WHO CARES.. those that see that plugging in still pollutes and has emissions.. just because it doesn't come out of the tail pipe (out of sight) doesn't mean crap..
Greenies forget this.. and at every turn stop anything in "THEIR" back yard..
Your comment of your electric bill is comical, because they have not even started to rebuild/upgrade the grid.. and when they do.. the money will need to come from those electric customers.. As they add smart meters they will also know who's is charging on off hours and charge them more than those using less electric on off peak hours.. You think this "free ride" is going to last.. bawahahahaha. They just have not caught up to them yet. once the pool of electric vehicle owners get big enough, they will have a surcharge on off peak use, and the local and fed most likely will add a charging tax (fuel tax) and They are already working on a mileage use tax to go along with the fuel tax at pumps...
Short sighted is your comments.. but then again I'm going to guess, you also go by the NIMBB..
Bet you'd have not bought one if uncle sam was not handing you 7500.00 tax credit and any local credits..
the b/s is strong here.

IP: Logged

E.Furgal
Member

Posts: 10907
From:
Registered: Mar 2012


Feedback score:    (23)
Leave feedback





Total ratings: 266
Rate this member

Report this Post09-11-2017 09:20 PM Click Here to See the Profile for E.FurgalClick Here to Email E.FurgalSend a Private Message to E.FurgalEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

 
quote
Originally posted by Wichita:

The Green aspect is not what will push the adoption rate of electric vehicles. They will be adopted because they will be cheaper to buy and operate.

There are already 5 Gigafactoies being built and another 4 planned. Some automakers have already announced that after 2020 they will no longer manufacture full ICE vehicles. There is already a full nation wide network of chargers, allowing one to drive coast to coast and that network is going to get much larger real quick.

The news even noted that these Tesla owners being able to evacuate Florida while everyone else is stalled fighting for gasoline.

Comical at best..
1) only somewhat in line in cost because of a fed tax credit..
2) the grid can't handle the power needs before the electric car.. and nothing is being done to fix this at a rate to allow this greenie etopia ..

I personally think the electric vehicle should not be getting a tax credit, and I think it should be getting a surcharge cost added to the sticker for the upgrading of the grid..
Why do they need a tax credit if it such a great idea and product???
same reason solar and wind do.. the marketing hype doesn't match the real world..
Want to save the world,, great lobby congress to allow auto makers to make cars without all the heft, and build light cars again.. A late 80'early 90's geo metro got 45+ mpg.. the petro car is not the problem.. the government forcing a small car to weight 4000 lb is..
Also, lobby to have the chicken tax removed.. so they can build mini trucks instead of only the monsters they do now..
Untill the gennies get their heads out of the sand and start allowing power production to be put online , hydro and nuke and n/g.. then I don't care what they claim.. the NIMBB and the claims of driving a zero emission vehicle is total b/s.. and some see through it.. FACTS most plug in vehicles are dirtier than many gas powered vehicles.. but because the emissions are "out of the owners eye sight" it is all good.. blind leading the blind..

IP: Logged

jmclemore
Member

Posts: 2387
From: Wichita Ks USA
Registered: Dec 2007


Feedback score: N/A
Leave feedback

Rate this member

Report this Post09-11-2017 09:59 PM Click Here to See the Profile for jmclemoreSend a Private Message to jmclemoreEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

 
quote
Originally posted by TheDigitalAlchemist:

Was pondering the other day the fact that my kids will never teach their kids how to pump gas.

I wonder what the "magic number/machine" is? 15,000 self-driving electric "commuter" car?


I can not imagine an overwhelming take over by electric transportation unless it is preceded by
the entire electric grid and power production becoming a publicly funded utility. They would have to
put metered charging stations everywhere and new taxes to fund electricity. When people
see drivers recharging without pulling out a payment method while they are paying more for gas
than ever before, That is when they will realize that they are already paying for the charging station
but unable to use them. Gasoline will still be the cheaper alternative but too costly to pay for both.

IP: Logged

jmbishop
Member

Posts: 3991
From: Probably Texas
Registered: Jul 2006


Feedback score: N/A
Leave feedback





Total ratings: 160
Rate this member

Report this Post09-11-2017 10:15 PM Click Here to See the Profile for jmbishopClick Here to Email jmbishopSend a Private Message to jmbishopEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

 
quote
Originally posted by E.Furgal:


WHO CARES.. those that see that plugging in still pollutes and has emissions.. just because it doesn't come out of the tail pipe (out of sight) doesn't mean crap..
Greenies forget this.. and at every turn stop anything in "THEIR" back yard..
Your comment of your electric bill is comical, because they have not even started to rebuild/upgrade the grid.. and when they do.. the money will need to come from those electric customers.. As they add smart meters they will also know who's is charging on off hours and charge them more than those using less electric on off peak hours.. You think this "free ride" is going to last.. bawahahahaha. They just have not caught up to them yet. once the pool of electric vehicle owners get big enough, they will have a surcharge on off peak use, and the local and fed most likely will add a charging tax (fuel tax) and They are already working on a mileage use tax to go along with the fuel tax at pumps...
Short sighted is your comments.. but then again I'm going to guess, you also go by the NIMBB..
Bet you'd have not bought one if uncle sam was not handing you 7500.00 tax credit and any local credits..
the b/s is strong here.


Deeming a product as useless because some hypathetical straw man is doesn't understand reality is like saying a deodorant sucks because teens mistake axe commercials for penis enlargement.

I bought my leaf used and have received zero tax credits. If you played attention about half of the model 3s won't be recieving federal rebates either, they expired and it will be a few years before it has a chance of being pushed, by that time the left will probably have turned on the electric car industry.

I'd like to see your math, my math says I'd use more electricity if I added a swimming pool than what it takes to charge my car an average of 2 hours a day. If say 30% of people switched to electric cars in 30 years, the rate of rooftop solar would probably(just speculation) more than offset electric car charging.

[This message has been edited by jmbishop (edited 09-11-2017).]

IP: Logged

Wichita
Member

Posts: 18592
From: Wichita, Kansas
Registered: Jun 2002


Feedback score: N/A
Leave feedback





Total ratings: 318
Rate this member

Report this Post09-11-2017 10:28 PM Click Here to See the Profile for WichitaClick Here to Email WichitaSend a Private Message to WichitaEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

I haven't read anywhere that mass demand of charging vehicles will cause a complete breakdown of the electric grid, as if charging an e-car is some massive electric hog.

There is no doubt we can use an update and more power production online, but this sounds comical and strawman argument.

There has been a large scale reduction per unit of power consumption based on appliance effiency alone. Average home uses 25% less today than they did in 1980.

An average US cost to charge an electronic vehicle with 15,000 a year is around $540 and that not about off peak hours, just average.

Laugh if you want, but go ahead and be a laggard. Again this has nothing to do with being green. This is about economic reality

IP: Logged

blackrams
Member

Posts: 26636
From: Frankfort, KY, USA
Registered: Feb 2003


Feedback score:    (7)
Leave feedback





Total ratings: 212
Rate this member

Report this Post09-11-2017 10:45 PM Click Here to See the Profile for blackramsClick Here to Email blackramsSend a Private Message to blackramsEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

Population centers will go electric at some point. I have doubts about rural America ever being able to do that. I also have doubts that people who use trucks ever going electric. Electric power trains and batteries will have to be developed for such uses and I simply don't see a viable option at this point.

I don't pretend to be knowledgeable about electric vehicles, what I see on the road is small and can only make short trips. Short is generally less than 200 miles.
Can't see an application where that would work for me. Thinking I'll be driving a diesel for the rest of my natural life.

------------------
Ron

Isn't it strange that after a bombing, everyone blames the bomber, his upbringing, his environment, his culture, his mental state but …
after a shooting, the problem is the gun....
Open your frigg'n minds, think about all the other tools that can be made into WMDs.

I sincerely hope that life is never discovered on another planet because, sure as hell Progressives and Socialists will want to send them money.

IP: Logged

jmbishop
Member

Posts: 3991
From: Probably Texas
Registered: Jul 2006


Feedback score: N/A
Leave feedback





Total ratings: 160
Rate this member

Report this Post09-12-2017 01:21 AM Click Here to See the Profile for jmbishopClick Here to Email jmbishopSend a Private Message to jmbishopEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

 
quote
Originally posted by blackrams:

Population centers will go electric at some point. I have doubts about rural America ever being able to do that. I also have doubts that people who use trucks ever going electric. Electric power trains and batteries will have to be developed for such uses and I simply don't see a viable option at this point.

I don't pretend to be knowledgeable about electric vehicles, what I see on the road is small and can only make short trips. Short is generally less than 200 miles.
Can't see an application where that would work for me. Thinking I'll be driving a diesel for the rest of my natural life.



Last I heard they were working on commercial trucks. Also, Tesla has gone beyond 200mi ranges and it's only going to get better. They've already started making more energy dense batteries in the gigafactory. An electric truck would be more expensive but it would have the potential for much better range and the torque would be great for towing although you'd see massive drops in range depending on what you're pulling.

A non production EV went over 600mi highway on a charge to prove they could after Elon said it would only be a year or two before the production cars hit those numbers.

[This message has been edited by jmbishop (edited 09-12-2017).]

IP: Logged

E.Furgal
Member

Posts: 10907
From:
Registered: Mar 2012


Feedback score:    (23)
Leave feedback





Total ratings: 266
Rate this member

Report this Post09-12-2017 06:53 AM Click Here to See the Profile for E.FurgalClick Here to Email E.FurgalSend a Private Message to E.FurgalEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

 
quote
Originally posted by Wichita:

I haven't read anywhere that mass demand of charging vehicles will cause a complete breakdown of the electric grid, as if charging an e-car is some massive electric hog.

There is no doubt we can use an update and more power production online, but this sounds comical and strawman argument.

There has been a large scale reduction per unit of power consumption based on appliance effiency alone. Average home uses 25% less today than they did in 1980.

An average US cost to charge an electronic vehicle with 15,000 a year is around $540 and that not about off peak hours, just average.

Laugh if you want, but go ahead and be a laggard. Again this has nothing to do with being green. This is about economic reality



Yes yes they are electric hogs.. you forget if 10% of the cars on the road go electric that is a huge draw on the grid ..
it be no different if everyone went electric heat..
I'm starting to wonder why some are even on gas powered car forums..

[This message has been edited by E.Furgal (edited 09-12-2017).]

IP: Logged

blackrams
Member

Posts: 26636
From: Frankfort, KY, USA
Registered: Feb 2003


Feedback score:    (7)
Leave feedback





Total ratings: 212
Rate this member

Report this Post09-12-2017 07:29 AM Click Here to See the Profile for blackramsClick Here to Email blackramsSend a Private Message to blackramsEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

 
quote
Originally posted by jmbishop:

An electric truck would be more expensive but it would have the potential for much better range and the torque would be great for towing although you'd see massive drops in range depending on what you're pulling.



Precisely why I do not see electric trucks on the road.

Not suggesting technology will not be developed to overcome such obstacles but, I doubt it will happen in most of our lifetimes. I simply don't see the economic incentive currently, huge untapped sources of petroleum that we already know of and still looking for more. It'll be a long time before diesels are off the road. I also don't believe electric vehicles will catch on in rural areas until those "out there" have no other choices unless pricing drops dramatically.
------------------
Ron

Isn't it strange that after a bombing, everyone blames the bomber, his upbringing, his environment, his culture, his mental state but …
after a shooting, the problem is the gun....
Open your frigg'n minds, think about all the other tools that can be made into WMDs.

I sincerely hope that life is never discovered on another planet because, sure as hell Progressives and Socialists will want to send them money.

[This message has been edited by blackrams (edited 09-12-2017).]

IP: Logged

RayOtton
Member

Posts: 3023
From: Cape Charles, VA, USA
Registered: Jul 2012


Feedback score: N/A
Leave feedback

Rate this member

Report this Post09-12-2017 07:43 AM Click Here to See the Profile for RayOttonClick Here to Email RayOttonSend a Private Message to RayOttonEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

The United States federal excise tax on gasoline is about 18 cents per gallon and 24 cents per gallon for diesel fuel which raised $35 billion. 60% of that is used for highway and bridge construction.

How are we going to tax the electricity used to power vehicles?

I mean, if you plug your electric car into your house, the power to recharge it is going to run through your house meter, no?

So what do we do? Add taxes to the house electricity bill?

What about people who either choose to run a gasoline, diesel or hydrogen powered car, all of which go through a separate metering system. Do they pay higher electricity taxes in their homes even though they aren't using any electricity to run their cars? Isn't that a form of double taxation?

Or how about those who choose not to have cars or live in metro areas where they don't need a car but do want electricity in their houses?

I have no idea, but, as I said, my Lithium mining stock is up 116% in a year so I could buy one of these new fangled vehicles if I wasn't always in the last group on the right of the bell curve.

And speaking of that bell curve.

That last group on the right, "The Laggards" are just as likely to be cautious with their money, having seen a lot of tecno-busts, rather than simply "economically unable to take risks on new ideas". In fact, that comment smacks of condescension.

[This message has been edited by RayOtton (edited 09-12-2017).]

IP: Logged

Wichita
Member

Posts: 18592
From: Wichita, Kansas
Registered: Jun 2002


Feedback score: N/A
Leave feedback





Total ratings: 318
Rate this member

Report this Post09-12-2017 08:26 AM Click Here to See the Profile for WichitaClick Here to Email WichitaSend a Private Message to WichitaEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

It isn't condescending to be anywhere in the curve. The early adopters actually pay for the risk and development of the technology, maybe as suckers then anything else.

Think those who were paying $15k for the plasma flat screen TV's, and laggards were saying that there old TV's would never go away.

There are probably people still using CRT TV, but they aren't made anymore and most people have switched to the superior flat screens because they are affordable and cheaper to produce than CRT.

Apple iPhone just celebrated 10-years since it was 1st release. Now everyone pretty much has a touch screen smartphone. Sure there are people who don't have smartphones, but they are few.

Some people were online in the 90's, most got onboard in the 00's, now everyone is pretty much using the Internet on a daily basis.

Incandescent, CFL's now to LEDs is another example. Paper maps to GPS.

ICE to Electric will happen.

IP: Logged

blackrams
Member

Posts: 26636
From: Frankfort, KY, USA
Registered: Feb 2003


Feedback score:    (7)
Leave feedback





Total ratings: 212
Rate this member

Report this Post09-12-2017 08:31 AM Click Here to See the Profile for blackramsClick Here to Email blackramsSend a Private Message to blackramsEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

 
quote
Originally posted by Wichita:

Paper maps to GPS.



Ya had me right up to this point.

Yep, I've got a couple of GPSs but, I will not take off on a trip with out my maps. While the GPS will give me a route and get me to a destination, I can't see the big picture with out that map book. Maybe it's because I'm a former Scout Pilot but, they'll pry my maps from my cold dead hands.............

IP: Logged

RayOtton
Member

Posts: 3023
From: Cape Charles, VA, USA
Registered: Jul 2012


Feedback score: N/A
Leave feedback

Rate this member

Report this Post09-12-2017 08:41 AM Click Here to See the Profile for RayOttonClick Here to Email RayOttonSend a Private Message to RayOttonEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

 
quote
Originally posted by Wichita:

It isn't condescending to be anywhere in the curve.



I disagree.

The writer made a pretty big assumption with that comment. The assumption being that the last group to adopt new tech most likely does so because they can't afford it.

My contention is that there's large portion of that group who are smart enough to wait, either to see if the new tech survives or to wait for the inevitable price drop.

Just as likely they're the smart ones as the poor ones.

IP: Logged

blackrams
Member

Posts: 26636
From: Frankfort, KY, USA
Registered: Feb 2003


Feedback score:    (7)
Leave feedback





Total ratings: 212
Rate this member

Report this Post09-12-2017 08:48 AM Click Here to See the Profile for blackramsClick Here to Email blackramsSend a Private Message to blackramsEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

 
quote
Originally posted by RayOtton:

Just as likely they're the smart ones as the poor ones.


Or possibly, we as humans are not all that excited about change that makes us do things we aren't comfortable doing. I am not a tech person and will therefore (most likely) be one of the diehards last to change.

Just because you can, does not mean you should. This applies to a lot of things.

[This message has been edited by blackrams (edited 09-12-2017).]

IP: Logged

RayOtton
Member

Posts: 3023
From: Cape Charles, VA, USA
Registered: Jul 2012


Feedback score: N/A
Leave feedback

Rate this member

Report this Post09-12-2017 09:38 AM Click Here to See the Profile for RayOttonClick Here to Email RayOttonSend a Private Message to RayOttonEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

 
quote
Originally posted by blackrams:

Just because you can, does not mean you should. This applies to a lot of things.



Aaaannnnndddd we're back to 140MPH, just like that.

IP: Logged

Jake_Dragon
Member

Posts: 29946
From: Florida
Registered: Jan 2001


Feedback score: (5)
Leave feedback





Total ratings: 388
Rate this member

Report this Post09-12-2017 10:21 AM Click Here to See the Profile for Jake_DragonSend a Private Message to Jake_DragonEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

Big brother will always get his cut. If they can't do it at the pump then they're going to force these electric cars to carry around a meter and charge them per mile. My sister has a hybrid and it gets 42 miles to the gallon. Sooner or later Big Brother and the state she lives in we'll have to do something to keep the roads up and to line the pockets of these ****ing politicians that don't know what it's like to have a real job.
As for me I just put 7000 miles on my Mustang smiled on every one of them

IP: Logged

Wichita
Member

Posts: 18592
From: Wichita, Kansas
Registered: Jun 2002


Feedback score: N/A
Leave feedback





Total ratings: 318
Rate this member

Report this Post09-12-2017 10:31 AM Click Here to See the Profile for WichitaClick Here to Email WichitaSend a Private Message to WichitaEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

 
quote
Originally posted by RayOtton:


I disagree.

The writer made a pretty big assumption with that comment. The assumption being that the last group to adopt new tech most likely does so because they can't afford it.

My contention is that there's large portion of that group who are smart enough to wait, either to see if the new tech survives or to wait for the inevitable price drop.

Just as likely they're the smart ones as the poor ones.



That wouldn't be laggards. Not for sure if some on here are trying to pride themselves as tech holdouts or laggards, but I suspect nobody here on this forum truly is.

Most people will fall in the Early Majority and Late Majority stage.


There is always exceptions to everything. This is just generalities.


IP: Logged

blackrams
Member

Posts: 26636
From: Frankfort, KY, USA
Registered: Feb 2003


Feedback score:    (7)
Leave feedback





Total ratings: 212
Rate this member

Report this Post09-12-2017 10:33 AM Click Here to See the Profile for blackramsClick Here to Email blackramsSend a Private Message to blackramsEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

 
quote
Originally posted by Jake_Dragon:

Big brother will always get his cut. If they can't do it at the pump then they're going to force these electric cars to carry around a meter and charge them per mile. My sister has a hybrid and it gets 42 miles to the gallon. Sooner or later Big Brother and the state she lives in we'll have to do something to keep the roads up and to line the pockets of these ****ing politicians that don't know what it's like to have a real job.
As for me I just put 7000 miles on my Mustang smiled on every one of them


I hope they also put those meters on bicycles. The taxpayer pays for all those bike lanes and paths and yet the users get free utilization.
That just ain't right. Sorry, didn't mean to side track the discussion, couldn't help myself. shrugg

------------------
Ron

Isn't it strange that after a bombing, everyone blames the bomber, his upbringing, his environment, his culture, his mental state but …
after a shooting, the problem is the gun....
Open your frigg'n minds, think about all the other tools that can be made into WMDs.

I sincerely hope that life is never discovered on another planet because, sure as hell Progressives and Socialists will want to send them money.

IP: Logged

RayOtton
Member

Posts: 3023
From: Cape Charles, VA, USA
Registered: Jul 2012


Feedback score: N/A
Leave feedback

Rate this member

Report this Post09-12-2017 11:00 AM Click Here to See the Profile for RayOttonClick Here to Email RayOttonSend a Private Message to RayOttonEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

 
quote
Originally posted by Wichita:

That wouldn't be laggards..



Exactly my point.

The very definition of laggard is negative - "moving, developing, or responding slowly; sluggish; dilatory; backward."

None of the other categories carries that negative connotation making it pretty obvious what the author was thinking.

IP: Logged

jmbishop
Member

Posts: 3991
From: Probably Texas
Registered: Jul 2006


Feedback score: N/A
Leave feedback





Total ratings: 160
Rate this member

Report this Post09-12-2017 11:01 AM Click Here to See the Profile for jmbishopClick Here to Email jmbishopSend a Private Message to jmbishopEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

 
quote
Originally posted by Jake_Dragon:

Big brother will always get his cut....

Exactly one of the points I've been trying to make, taking a chunk out of an industry in favor of something on less dependant on highly taxed resources isn't something I think was foreseen. The left created the monster that is Tesla and you're already starting to see them turn on Elon.They were more than happy to throw money at green technologies when it looked like it wasn't viable, when the big 3 said it wasn't worth doing(the market has been telling them otherwise since the EV1).

IP: Logged

E.Furgal
Member

Posts: 10907
From:
Registered: Mar 2012


Feedback score:    (23)
Leave feedback





Total ratings: 266
Rate this member

Report this Post09-13-2017 07:10 AM Click Here to See the Profile for E.FurgalClick Here to Email E.FurgalSend a Private Message to E.FurgalEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

 
quote
Originally posted by RayOtton:

The United States federal excise tax on gasoline is about 18 cents per gallon and 24 cents per gallon for diesel fuel which raised $35 billion. 60% of that is used for highway and bridge construction.

How are we going to tax the electricity used to power vehicles?

I mean, if you plug your electric car into your house, the power to recharge it is going to run through your house meter, no?

So what do we do? Add taxes to the house electricity bill?

What about people who either choose to run a gasoline, diesel or hydrogen powered car, all of which go through a separate metering system. Do they pay higher electricity taxes in their homes even though they aren't using any electricity to run their cars? Isn't that a form of double taxation?

Or how about those who choose not to have cars or live in metro areas where they don't need a car but do want electricity in their houses?

I have no idea, but, as I said, my Lithium mining stock is up 116% in a year so I could buy one of these new fangled vehicles if I wasn't always in the last group on the right of the bell curve.

And speaking of that bell curve.

That last group on the right, "The Laggards" are just as likely to be cautious with their money, having seen a lot of tecno-busts, rather than simply "economically unable to take risks on new ideas". In fact, that comment smacks of condescension.



You think they care if those not using electric cars get taxed just like those that do..

I'm sure they will work great in snow and slush.. water and electric what could go wrong..

you get to a recharge station and get to plug in while standing in water/slush/snow, and it falling on you, what could go wrong.. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzap...

just because the unit is water tight when build don't mean anything after the fact..

IP: Logged

E.Furgal
Member

Posts: 10907
From:
Registered: Mar 2012


Feedback score:    (23)
Leave feedback





Total ratings: 266
Rate this member

Report this Post09-13-2017 07:23 AM Click Here to See the Profile for E.FurgalClick Here to Email E.FurgalSend a Private Message to E.FurgalEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

 
quote
Originally posted by Wichita:
That wouldn't be laggards. Not for sure if some on here are trying to pride themselves as tech holdouts or laggards, but I suspect nobody here on this forum truly is.

Most people will fall in the Early Majority and Late Majority stage.


There is always exceptions to everything. This is just generalities.


Some of us are wise. We have been around and have invested into the latest and greatest techo item only to have it go the way of the doe doe ..
beta max, palm pilot, crackberry, 8 track, real to real, cassette, super c/d, the list is miles long.
I see a vehicle type that requires a power system to support it, that is not able to do so.. I know they can not upgrade it by "only" taxing those that are adding that extra load to the system.. They will be forced to make everyone foot the bill, Sorry I'm not on board of footing the bill so you can have a power source for your wheels.. I am not on board with the lack of electric paying for the roads they use.. nor hybrids, any other thing, we call that freeloading.. and it is..
Not on board of giving tax payers money to only some vehicles.. I'm not on board with having to pay for the hazardous waste recycling of the powerblock, And the system to get it up and running, I'd like to see the electric vehicle owner have to pay the cost of handling the battery pack and recycle cost, also the enviro mess the making of the pack cause.. The plant in Canada that makes the packs for Toyota has a 10 mile dead zone around it from that "green energy" zero emission fraud..
'd

IP: Logged

Marvin McInnis
Member

Posts: 11576
From: ~ Kansas City, USA
Registered: Apr 2002


Feedback score: N/A
Leave feedback





Total ratings: 226
Rate this member

Report this Post09-14-2017 01:13 AM Click Here to See the Profile for Marvin McInnisClick Here to visit Marvin McInnis's HomePageSend a Private Message to Marvin McInnisEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

 
quote
Originally posted by E.Furgal:

Some of us are wise.



Quoted for hubris. I'm sure you could also "fly a plane, no problem."

IP: Logged

MidEngineManiac
Member

Posts: 22085
From: Deplorableland
Registered: Feb 2007


Feedback score: N/A
Leave feedback





Total ratings: 292
Rate this member

Report this Post09-14-2017 01:55 AM Click Here to See the Profile for MidEngineManiacSend a Private Message to MidEngineManiacEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

The other aspect of EV's is regulatory. One area I know a little about is eBikes.

The big draw to them right now is CHEAP and EASY. They are advertised as "No Gas, No Licence, No Insurance" (at least here)

Whats happening is the major manufacturers are making them bigger and more capable, to the point they are now (some models) defacto full-size electric motorcycles. The only thing keeping them within the regulatory speed limit is the motor controller programming, which is easily overcome and re-programmed with a smart-phone app.

One manufacturer has one that can be fitted with a small generator making it a true hybrid motorcycle.

Its not going to be long before the regulators catch up and say "wait a second, these aren't the scooters we approved 10 years ago, time to re-eximin the concept" and will start requiring licence and insurance based on capabilities and not programmed limits. At that point any advantage e-bikes had over gas bikes is gone. They cost the same, now require licence and insurance, and compared to a gas bike the range SUCKS. Anybody buying a bike from that point forward would have to be a greenie to pick the EV since the advantage (range) has shifted back to gas motorcycles, and the market for them collapses back into the small niche market they were 10 years ago. Special-interest types only.

Even go-kart racing is being electrified, check out this thing for $10,000. 0-60 in 1.5 seconds. How long before THAT gets shut down on tracks that were never designed for that kind of acceleration. http://www.daymak.com/c5/blast-go-kart-c5.html

[This message has been edited by MidEngineManiac (edited 09-14-2017).]

IP: Logged

E.Furgal
Member

Posts: 10907
From:
Registered: Mar 2012


Feedback score:    (23)
Leave feedback





Total ratings: 266
Rate this member

Report this Post09-14-2017 06:03 AM Click Here to See the Profile for E.FurgalClick Here to Email E.FurgalSend a Private Message to E.FurgalEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

 
quote
Originally posted by Marvin McInnis:


Quoted for hubris. I'm sure you could also "fly a plane, no problem."


Can't have anything for the subject of post find a grammar issue.. not shocking (pun son)

IP: Logged

E.Furgal
Member

Posts: 10907
From:
Registered: Mar 2012


Feedback score:    (23)
Leave feedback





Total ratings: 266
Rate this member

Report this Post09-14-2017 06:06 AM Click Here to See the Profile for E.FurgalClick Here to Email E.FurgalSend a Private Message to E.FurgalEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post

So you'd not plug in and use an electric tool in a puddle or the rain/snow.. unless you really trusted that cable and the connection to be water tight, but yet you think having the masses that are asses plugging in a vehicle in the snow/slush/rain/puddles will be the wave of the future..

The dumb it is strong..

IP: Logged

Previous Page | Next Page

This topic is 4 pages long:  1   2   3   4 
next newest topic | next oldest topic

All times are ET (US)

Post New Topic  Post A Reply
Hop to:

Contact Us | Back To Main Page

Advertizing on PFF | Fiero Parts Vendors
PFF Merchandise | Fiero Gallery | Ogre's Cave
Real-Time Chat | Fiero Related Auctions on eBay



Copyright (c) 1999, C. Pennock