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Well, the semi panic has begun. Storm buying by maryjane
Started on: 08-24-2017 11:16 AM
Replies: 99 (2059 views)
Last post by: Keel on 09-04-2017 12:46 PM
maryjane
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Report this Post08-24-2017 11:16 AM Click Here to See the Profile for maryjaneSend a Private Message to maryjaneEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
Stores around Houston already running out of bottled water, chips, canned meat and bread and this is going to be a little one with just lots of rain here. It ain't going to be the end of the world.
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TheDigitalAlchemist
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Report this Post08-24-2017 11:56 AM Click Here to See the Profile for TheDigitalAlchemistClick Here to visit TheDigitalAlchemist's HomePageSend a Private Message to TheDigitalAlchemistEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
How bad are they saying its gonna be? First one since 08' or something? 20 inches of rain inna day?

Hope its nothing serious...

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maryjane
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Report this Post08-24-2017 01:34 PM Click Here to See the Profile for maryjaneSend a Private Message to maryjaneEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by TheDigitalAlchemist:

How bad are they saying its gonna be? First one since 08' or something? 20 inches of rain inna day?

Hope its nothing serious...


Not 20" in one day, but over the course of several days.
It's now a minor cat1 hurricane but is now forecast to be Cat 3 right before it hits the coast, and will rapidly drop intensity back to Tropical Storm category, but it's forecast to move inland about 80 miles, make a NW loop and go back and sit over Corpus or any other town on the coast and drop rain all over SE Texas for 3 days.
TS Allison did the same thing in '01 and dropped 30+ inches on Houston in the 3 days it hung around.
TS Allison rainfall totals:


Current prediction for Harvey:
"Rain: All of our top models are predicting that Harvey will dump more than ten inches of rain in a 5-day period in coastal Texas near where the center makes landfall. Some areas will likely receive 2 – 3 feet of rain over a 7-day period. Harvey has the potential to cause very serious flooding in such highly populated, flood-prone regions as the Austin-San Antonio corridor and the Houston metro area."

Storm surge is not expected to be as great as Hurricane Ike, but the real danger is going to large amounts of rain on a flat coastal plain, where run off is going to be slow.
Current projected path; subject to change at any time:

[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 08-24-2017).]

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Report this Post08-24-2017 03:42 PM Click Here to See the Profile for davylong86Send a Private Message to davylong86Edit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
If you still live in Cleveland,TX. It looks to be where most of the water is headed. Do you have a boat loaded with milk and bread?

[This message has been edited by davylong86 (edited 08-24-2017).]

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Report this Post08-24-2017 03:50 PM Click Here to See the Profile for Tony KaniaSend a Private Message to Tony KaniaEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by davylong86:

If you still live in Cleveland,TX. It looks to be where most of the water is headed. Do you have a boat loaded with milk and bread?



Nah, he probably has the beavers bucking out several logs to use as the beginning of an ark.

Good luck down there...
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maryjane
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Report this Post08-24-2017 04:32 PM Click Here to See the Profile for maryjaneSend a Private Message to maryjaneEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by davylong86:

If you still live in Cleveland,TX. It looks to be where most of the water is headed. Do you have a boat loaded with milk and bread?


Yes to the first ? and no to the 2nd ?

Everything is gassed to full and I just put 5 gal of diesel in the tractor in case we have to ride it to high ground.
House will be fine..top of 1st finished floor is a full 6' above grade and I've never had flood water in the yard.
Getting in and out of the property is the problem.
I do have a small alum boat for that tho.
Have my generator ready.
Will have to put my welders and air compressor up on something in the shop if water gets very high tho.
Beyond that..insurance.
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82-T/A [At Work]
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Report this Post08-24-2017 06:31 PM Click Here to See the Profile for 82-T/A [At Work]Send a Private Message to 82-T/A [At Work]Edit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
MJ, the gas station by my house has a line several blocks long... reminds me of South Florida.

I don't get why people here in San Antonio are freaking out... all they're going to get is rain, and probably flooding. We won't get any hurricane-force winds this far out... people are just acting crazy.
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maryjane
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Report this Post08-25-2017 01:24 AM Click Here to See the Profile for maryjaneSend a Private Message to maryjaneEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by 82-T/A [At Work]:

MJ, the gas station by my house has a line several blocks long... reminds me of South Florida.

I don't get why people here in San Antonio are freaking out... all they're going to get is rain, and probably flooding. We won't get any hurricane-force winds this far out... people are just acting crazy.


Luling (just 60 miles East of San Antonio) is now forecast to get 2' of rainfall..that's feet not inches.
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Report this Post08-25-2017 06:46 AM Click Here to See the Profile for E.FurgalSend a Private Message to E.FurgalEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
oh well.. tis the season..
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Report this Post08-25-2017 07:36 AM Click Here to See the Profile for cliffwSend a Private Message to cliffwEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by 82-T/A [At Work]:
I don't get why people here in San Antonio are freaking out ...


Me, 60 miles west, I am not fazed. Even though it sucks to be me if it rains, as I have a small army of help to get me moved.

 
quote
Originally posted by maryjane:

Stores around Houston already running out of bottled water, ...


Too funny, . Turn you frikken tap on and store some water. Or, catch rain water, .

EDIT
Oh yeah, don't drink that bottled water from last year. It's not water anymore, .

[This message has been edited by cliffw (edited 08-25-2017).]

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maryjane
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Report this Post08-25-2017 12:03 PM Click Here to See the Profile for maryjaneSend a Private Message to maryjaneEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
I will endeavor to keep the board informed as this thing plays out...

This morning at my place, I'm seeing a light but steady surface wind alternating from North to East back to North with dark clouds in the South moving from South to North. Lots of banding in the North. Pretty typical of a large storm's effects 12-16 hrs pre-landfall. I can't describe it, but you can feel it in the air. It's coming...

from a professional fisherman on another forum--sea bouy data at Aransas Pass which is North of Corpus Christi Tx and currently still more than 100 mi from eyewall:

Location: 26.968N 96.694W
Date: Fri, 25 Aug 2017 13:50:00 UTC
Winds: N (10°) at 35.0 kt gusting to 42.7 kt
Significant Wave Height: 21.7 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 13 sec
Average Wave Period: 8.8 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (117°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.39 in and falling rapidly

Air Temperature: 80.6 F
Dew Point: 77.2 F

Unless there is solid cloud cover at dusk, there should be an interesting sunset.
Ike made landfall around 11pm and the sunset that day was spectacular.

[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 08-25-2017).]

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Report this Post08-25-2017 12:37 PM Click Here to See the Profile for cliffwSend a Private Message to cliffwEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by maryjane:
Ike made landfall around 11pm and the sunset that day was spectacular.


If possible, get pictures for us.
I remember the great sunsets when and after Mt Saint Helens erupted.

God speed to you sir.

Umm, ... sunset after 11PM ?
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Report this Post08-25-2017 01:16 PM Click Here to See the Profile for davylong86Send a Private Message to davylong86Edit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
Batten down the hatches! Be safe and hope it doesn't get to crazy out your way. You could always call Fats to pick you up in that big fancy boat of his.
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Report this Post08-25-2017 01:16 PM Click Here to See the Profile for MidEngineManiacSend a Private Message to MidEngineManiacEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by maryjane:

It ain't going to be the end of the world.


But they PROMISED !!!. I WANT MY ARMAGEDDON !!!!



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maryjane
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Report this Post08-25-2017 09:40 PM Click Here to See the Profile for maryjaneSend a Private Message to maryjaneEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by davylong86:

Batten down the hatches! Be safe and hope it doesn't get to crazy out your way. You could always call Fats to pick you up in that big fancy boat of his.

Moved my own up next to the back steps this morning.
As Burt Gummer once said "This time..We're ready for ya"



Other than intermittent rain and a few minor wind gusts, today was pretty calm.

Now a Cat 4 storm. I am very glad it so far south of me, but pray for those in that region.
Tomorrow morning is apt to look very different all over SE and parts of E Texas.
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Report this Post08-25-2017 10:30 PM Click Here to See the Profile for cliffwSend a Private Message to cliffwEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by maryjane:
Moved my own up next to the back steps this morning.



I only see one oar. Are you not going to help Jane row ? You know her driving record, .

Crazy stupid over here too. Gas lines three deep. Eight lanes wide. That was at the gas pumps. The grocery store was crazy stupid too.

I got to talking to different folks. Most storm refugees.

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maryjane
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Report this Post08-25-2017 11:33 PM Click Here to See the Profile for maryjaneSend a Private Message to maryjaneEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
No oars..just 2 paddles. Fishing rods are put in the shop.

I know of lots of farmers/ranchers that sent their families out of the coastal bend area toward SA.

Wind has picked up here in the last hour. Nothing threatening, just a steady E and ENE wind, probably 8-10 mph, maybe a little more.
I don't expect to see more than 20-30mph sustained winds here and probably won't be until tomorrow morning.

Our rain forecast here has dropped somewhat.



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Report this Post08-26-2017 12:01 AM Click Here to See the Profile for cliffwSend a Private Message to cliffwEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by maryjane:
No oars..just 2 paddles.


I am going to have to get you two more paddles. So you and Jane can take me water skiing, .

Don, I have not had to think about walking in your shoes. What about your cattle ?
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maryjane
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Report this Post08-26-2017 07:32 AM Click Here to See the Profile for maryjaneSend a Private Message to maryjaneEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
All that have calves are in the smaller pastures up north of and right behind the house. The rest of them better find a tree to get under. Gates to the East side are all open so those can make their way to the south side pasture west of the pond if they want to. I'll bring them up myself once the river rises..IF it rises.
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Report this Post08-26-2017 08:28 AM Click Here to See the Profile for RayOttonSend a Private Message to RayOttonEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
Look on the bright side. Maybe some of the beaver will drown.

With you in spirit, Don.
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maryjane
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Report this Post08-26-2017 10:13 AM Click Here to See the Profile for maryjaneSend a Private Message to maryjaneEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by RayOtton:

Look on the bright side. Maybe some of the beaver will drown.

With you in spirit, Don.

One can only wish, but usually, the opposite is true. When the river gets up, that's where the big permanent beaver population resides, and they get driven out up into the creeks and ponds on higher ground. That's where mine always come from. Also how I have always gotten alligators from. They both just swim across the flooded pastures and take up residence in my ponds.
And of course, my big catfish swim out into the pastures and follow the water as it recedes back down into the river channel.
Ain't nothin I can do to prevent any of that except restock the ponds with fish later.

Hopefully, this time none of that will be an issue. Looks like everything but outer bands is staying to the south and west of Houston region.

Ike was so much different. I took these pics the evening before--sunset Sept 12 '08:



Just 10 hrs later, right after sunrise Sept 13 '08 from the same parking lot from different direction:


Got right in my truck and drove thru town:


I don't ever want to see another like Ike...


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Report this Post08-26-2017 11:26 AM Click Here to See the Profile for RayOttonSend a Private Message to RayOttonEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by maryjane:

One can only wish, but usually, the opposite is true. When the river gets up, that's where the big permanent beaver population resides, and they get driven out up into the creeks and ponds on higher ground. That's where mine always come from. Also how I have always gotten alligators from. They both just swim across the flooded pastures and take up residence in my ponds.



So what you're saying is that wet beavers are your biggest problem?

( Follow along in O/T for a while and that seems to be a recurring theme )
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maryjane
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Report this Post08-26-2017 11:57 AM Click Here to See the Profile for maryjaneSend a Private Message to maryjaneEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
15 minutes ago..






(we've now reached our forecast 6" rainfall for the day)
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Report this Post08-26-2017 02:10 PM Click Here to See the Profile for ZebSend a Private Message to ZebEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by maryjane:

15 minutes ago..




(we've now reached our forecast 6" rainfall for the day)


Is that the Dart?

Maybe it should be parked closer to the pond.
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maryjane
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Report this Post08-26-2017 03:19 PM Click Here to See the Profile for maryjaneSend a Private Message to maryjaneEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
I'd have to sleep out with the cows. As much trouble as that car has been, my wife loves it.
(radio is currently out on it..going to take it back in as soon as this Harvey mess is gone. They called yesterday to say they had the replacement and to bring it on in. It works fully, except it will only receive the 1-2 strongest stations no matter where you are--replaced the antenna 2 weeks ago and it didn't help)

We've been under numerous tornado warnings "take shelter now!" today, with 2 of them being for North Cleveland and movement in my direction, but I never noticed anything different here. N. Cleveland is 6 miles SE of me.
Rainfall stands at 7" now since about 7am. Seems to be a lull or we're between the outflow bands right now, but I can still hear thunder rumbling.
I've seen worse.

[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 08-26-2017).]

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Report this Post08-26-2017 04:32 PM Click Here to See the Profile for jmbishopSend a Private Message to jmbishopEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
We had our first flood since I've lived here a few months ago. My front yard was a lake but my foundation is high enough that no water made it in, a forum member who lives pretty close wasn't so lucky. I don't remember how many inches it took but in front of my house it overwhelmed the drainage(4ft deep ditches on both sides of my street) 3 out of the 4 people down stream from me got 4+ inches in their houses, worse in other parts of town.
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Report this Post08-26-2017 06:39 PM Click Here to See the Profile for blackramsSend a Private Message to blackramsEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by maryjane:

I've seen worse.



Hoping that what you've seen previously stays as the worst to. Best wishes Don.

------------------
Ron

Isn't it strange that after a bombing, everyone blames the bomber, his upbringing, his environment, his culture, his mental state but …
after a shooting, the problem is the gun....
Open your frigg'n minds, think about all the other tools that can be made into WMDs.

I sincerely hope that life is never discovered on another planet because, sure as hell Progressives and Socialists will want to send them money.

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Report this Post08-26-2017 09:25 PM Click Here to See the Profile for E.FurgalSend a Private Message to E.FurgalEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
A buddy of mine on another forum was telling me they ran out of gas/propaine and water by 9am.. people are nuts. So all the vehicles will be in 2-3 foot of water but will have a full tank.. no one bought tall jackstands or ramps to get the vehicle higher ..
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maryjane
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Report this Post08-26-2017 10:44 PM Click Here to See the Profile for maryjaneSend a Private Message to maryjaneEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
Still a very well formed storm system. Seeing/hearing non-stop thunder & lightning right now, but not much wind or rain.
I'm glad I'm North of Hou and not on the south or SW side.


https://www.wunderground.co...0&lon=-95.19&radar=1


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Report this Post08-27-2017 12:12 AM Click Here to See the Profile for cliffwSend a Private Message to cliffwEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by maryjane:
I'm glad I'm North of Houston and not on the south or SW side.


I have been too busy to pay attention. I did hear that it is going to go back over the Gulf of Mexico and gather more ammunition (moisture) and then dance north east.

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maryjane
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Report this Post08-27-2017 12:38 AM Click Here to See the Profile for maryjaneSend a Private Message to maryjaneEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
Maybe. Nothing's for sure with this one. The emergence back into the GoM 'could' happen, but so far model guidance on that is minimal.

Harvey has drifted east-northeastward since the last advisory.
While the model guidance is not in great agreement, it appears that
the cyclone will drift southward or southeastward during the next
couple of days due to the distant influence of a trough digging into
the eastern United States. After that time, a building ridge over
the Gulf of Mexico should cause Harvey to drift generally
northward. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track
and lies near the consensus models. At this time, the forecast
track keeps the center of Harvey inland, as there is not enough
agreement between the models that the center of Harvey will actually
emerge over water.

Harvey should continue to weaken to a tropical depression during the
next day or so as the cyclone remains inland. As the center nears
the coast, it is likely that the cyclone will maintain that status
for several days as a large amount of the circulation will be over
the water. By the end of the forecast period, the system should be
far enough inland so that Harvey will again weaken. An alternative
scenario is that Harvey could re-intensify if the center emerges
over the Gulf.


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Report this Post08-27-2017 09:34 AM Click Here to See the Profile for jmbishopSend a Private Message to jmbishopEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
I don't think I've ever seen a hurricane stay in one place for so long.(I haven't really played attention to very many)
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Report this Post08-27-2017 03:22 PM Click Here to See the Profile for maryjaneSend a Private Message to maryjaneEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by jmbishop:

I don't think I've ever seen a hurricane stay in one place for so long.(I haven't really played attention to very many)

Moving, but very slowly. Meandering is a better description.

Things are serious here at home. Made our way out this morning, but no where to go. Roads flooded in both directions so we returned home to ride out whatever comes.
I have dumped over 20" of water out of the rain gage since Sat morning. It had run over twice so I'm not sure what the actual total is.
The river is now out of it's bank, and in the back pasture.
Our only way off the property, which I went thru in the truck. If we get a hour's break, that water will go down and I can get Jane's car up on a high hill but will have to hurry. Erosion is making that crossing narrower by the hour.


And, as if there wasn't enough water coming down, I found it more than a little ironic that the water treatment plant decided this morning was a great time to pump itself down.




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Report this Post08-27-2017 03:48 PM Click Here to See the Profile for jmbishopSend a Private Message to jmbishopEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
Stay safe, watch out for the floating ants.
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Report this Post08-27-2017 09:32 PM Click Here to See the Profile for davylong86Send a Private Message to davylong86Edit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
Hope your doing good down there. looks like we get some leftovers up in St.louis. Don't know what the record rain fall is for a 3 or 4 day storm is, but this one has to be in the running.
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Report this Post08-27-2017 10:06 PM Click Here to See the Profile for texasfieroSend a Private Message to texasfieroEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by davylong86:

Hope your doing good down there. looks like we get some leftovers up in St.louis. Don't know what the record rain fall is for a 3 or 4 day storm is, but this one has to be in the running.


There have been multiple projections of 50"

Then there's this:
Water to be released from Addicks, Barker reservoirs
 
quote
HOUSTON - Voluntary evacuations are expected to be issued for people living near the Addicks and Barker reservoirs as officials said they plan to release water from them Monday morning.

Col. Lars Zetterstrom of the Army Corps of Engineers said water will likely be released from the Addicks Reservoir beginning at 2 a.m. and from the Barker Reservoir at 11 a.m. The release will cause a rise of 4 to 6 inches per hour in the Buffalo Bayou and will cause more water to flow both upstream and downstream.
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Homes could be impacted by 2 p.m., Zetterstrom said.

"This flood event will exceed the 2016 tax day flood elevations," Zetterstrom said. "Structures will be impacted upstream from both locations; the number of structures affected will depend on weather conditions."

Zetterstrom said the dams are performing as designed after Tropical Storm Harvey dumped record amounts of rainfall on Harris County. He said that the release is needed to reduce the risk of further flooding.



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rbell2915
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Report this Post08-27-2017 10:16 PM Click Here to See the Profile for rbell2915Send a Private Message to rbell2915Edit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
I have a friend who lives in Pearland, which is roughly 14 miles SSE of Houston. I wonder if she's doing fine, I haven't heard from her in a few days.

Update: She's fine, but she knows a few people who no longer have homes.

[This message has been edited by rbell2915 (edited 08-27-2017).]

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texasfiero
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Report this Post08-27-2017 10:53 PM Click Here to See the Profile for texasfieroSend a Private Message to texasfieroEdit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
Devastating flooding after Harvey will get worse before it gets better

 
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The nation’s fourth-largest city is inundated by floodwaters from the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey, and there’s no end in sight. On Sunday, The Weather Service predicted that parts of Texas could receive nearly 50 inches of rain before the storm ends.

[This message has been edited by texasfiero (edited 08-27-2017).]

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davylong86
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Report this Post08-27-2017 11:13 PM Click Here to See the Profile for davylong86Send a Private Message to davylong86Edit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
Wow! That is just a crazy amount of water. We went thru the flood of 93 and that was mostly heavy winter thaw and big time spring rains. To get that much water in a few days is nuts.
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2.5
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Report this Post08-28-2017 10:09 AM Click Here to See the Profile for 2.5Send a Private Message to 2.5Edit/Delete MessageReply w/QuoteDirect Link to This Post
Be careful out there folks.
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