Pretty interesting article... The electric utilities recognize they are on the way out. The question is, will they adapt or go belly up like the dial up and dot matrix printer industry?

Full article at this link:
http://grist.org/climate-en...ng-to-u-s-utilities/


Back in January, the Edison Electric Institute — the (typically stodgy and backward-looking) trade group of U.S. investor-owned utilities — released a report [PDF] that, as far as I can tell, went almost entirely without notice in the press. That’s a shame. It is one of the most prescient and brutally frank things I’ve ever read about the power sector. It is a rare thing to hear an industry tell the tale of its own incipient obsolescence.
....
Due to the variable nature of renewable DER, there is a perception that customers will always need to remain on the grid. While we would expect customers to remain on the grid until a fully viable and economic distributed non-variable resource is available, one can imagine a day when battery storage technology or micro turbines could allow customers to be electric grid independent. To put this into perspective, who would have believed 10 years ago that traditional wire line telephone customers could economically “cut the cord?”

Indeed! Just the other day, Duke Energy CEO Jim Rogers said, “If the cost of solar panels keeps coming down, installation costs come down and if they combine solar with battery technology and a power management system, then we have someone just using [the grid] for backup.” What happens if a whole bunch of customers start generating their own power and using the grid merely as backup? The EEI report warns of “irreparable damages to revenues and growth prospects” of utilities.

Utility investors are accustomed to large, long-term, reliable investments with a 30-year cost recovery — fossil fuel plants, basically. The cost of those investments, along with investments in grid maintenance and reliability, are spread by utilities across all ratepayers in a service area. What happens if a bunch of those ratepayers start reducing their demand or opting out of the grid entirely? Well, the same investments must now be spread over a smaller group of ratepayers. In other words: higher rates for those who haven’t switched to solar.

What's interesting is that I work Homeland Security (through a subcontractor) for one of the major energy companies in California. They have found a way to charge for solar energy (which is technically free). Plus with the recent bankruptcy of Solara after Obungles grant, I doubt that anything will change here in CaliFU.

[This message has been edited by IMSA GT (edited 04-13-2013).]

Wouldn't that be great, solve the problem of the fragile, falling apart energy grid by simply eliminating it? You always hear about people who actually generate more electricity than they use, and get a check from the electric company every month; what if everyone did? I don't think this will happen for at least another 15+ years, but it would be interesting to see.

quote Originally posted by RWDPLZ: You always hear about people who actually generate more electricity than they use, and get a check from the electric company every month; what if everyone did? I don't think this will happen for at least another 15+ years, but it would be interesting to see.

Take it from me, if you could utilize car batteries for backup power and solar to charge them, even if that meant saving money for a few years, that would save the consumer hundreds even thousands a year.

[This message has been edited by Jackdaniels (edited 04-12-2013).]

I would think many of the old guard, in terms of companies, may see their ends coming and will desperately try to hold on.

quote Originally posted by newf: I would think many of the old guard, in terms of companies, may see their ends coming and will desperately try to hold on.

Like they did or are doing here.
The electricity prices wet up by 400%
Now no one can afford solar panels

I am surprised power companies haven't started leasing solar panel installs (for infinite profit)

"Go green with the latest initiative from Duke Power! We will install solar panels on your home, make you 100% grid-independent, and only charge you 50% of what your power bill used to be, in perpetuity."

You might see a lot of residential customers doing this at some point.
The demands of commercial and industrial users will still exceed the capacity of any available systems, however.

Will it alter the rate structure?
Surely.
Put the power company out of business?
Doubtful.

[This message has been edited by Raydar (edited 04-13-2013).]

Can it realistically make 440 3 ph?

[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 04-13-2013).]

quote Originally posted by maryjane: Can it realistically make 440 3 ph?

You mean 480 3 phase? Yes:

http://www.solarelectricsup...ter/satcon/powergate

quote Originally posted by ryan.hess: You mean 480 3 phase? Yes: http://www.solarelectricsup...ter/satcon/powergate

No. Realistically, for commercial applications, their largest (100Kw) unit won't power squat for very long. Realistically, their mention of being tied into the grid "for export to the grid" means it is using the grid at times for import. Let us know, when realistically, one can supply power to something like the Baytown Texas Exxon refinery complex. In the US alone, refineries realistically use 48,891,000,000 kWh as of 2006. I'm slow in math, but I believe that is right at 49 Billion Kwh.
It ain't happening with solar--and won't in the lifetime of the youngest member here at PFF.

On a mini scale, I bought a solar powered, led light set (860 lumens) to put up down at my dock. Put it up nearly 2 weeks ago, with a requirement for it to be fully charged in 16 hrs. Due to weather (cloud cover and rain) it was finally usable for the 1st time last night.

I also have a solar powered fence charger. Realistically, in winter and spring, I often have to bring the battery in and charge it from home outlets because there isn't enough sunlight to make it reliable enough 24/7/365.
Realistically speaking of course---not pie in the sky wishful thinking type speaking.

quote Originally posted by maryjane: No. Realistically, for commercial applications, their largest (100Kw) unit won't power squat for very long. Realistically, their mention of being tied into the grid "for export to the grid" means it is using the grid at times for import. Let us know, when realistically, one can supply power to something like the Baytown Texas Exxon refinery complex. In the US alone, refineries realistically use 48,891,000,000 kWh as of 2006. I'm slow in math, but I believe that is right at 49 Billion Kwh. It ain't happening with solar--and won't in the lifetime of the youngest member here at PFF. On a mini scale, I bought a solar powered, led light set (860 lumens) to put up down at my dock. Put it up nearly 2 weeks ago, with a requirement for it to be fully charged in 16 hrs. Due to weather (cloud cover and rain) it was finally usable for the 1st time last night. I also have a solar powered fence charger. Realistically, in winter and spring, I often have to bring the battery in and charge it from home outlets because there isn't enough sunlight to make it reliable enough 24/7/365. Realistically speaking of course---not pie in the sky wishful thinking type speaking.

There are 2 types of solar inverters - grid tied and off-grid. Grid tied just "sync" with the grid and push power wherever it is needed. Off-grid use batteries when it gets dark. Both can be paralleled and give you 10 MW if that's what you need. You just need the 20 acres of solar panels to power it. I can't quite fathom 50MWH of power/day, but the ~$5 million it would cost would probably pay for itself over 10-20 years.

BTW - I wouldn't consider two chinese solar "tinker toys" representative of solar power for commercial use. How much were they and how big are the solar panels? I don't know how much power a fence uses, but I'd guess >50 watts. You'd probably need a pretty big 3'x3' solar panel to keep it reasonably charged. 800 lumens works out to ~10 watts. The solar panel should be minimum 16" x 16", and that's for just enough power to make it through a 12 hour night after 5 hours of charging. If it gets cloudy - it should probably be 2x as big. Is it?

[This message has been edited by ryan.hess (edited 04-13-2013).]

We lease a lot of circuits from the phone company for remote control of our substations.
In at least one of those stations, the phone company has employed solar panels and batteries to power their Network Interface Unit. (Last card in the chain, where the circuit hands off to us. Aka, the "demarc".)
In recent weeks, when we had extended periods of rain/clouds, the batteries went flat, which caused us to lose visibility to the station.
Not an ideal situation, and used only because it's a high voltage (transmission) station, and there's no low voltage (distribution) lines available there.

In other locations, we use our own batteries and solar cells to power our own equipment. It carries the same risk.
This stuff ain't ready for prime time.

quote Originally posted by ryan.hess: Pretty interesting article... The electric utilities recognize they are on the way out. The question is, will they adapt or go belly up like the dial up and dot matrix printer industry?

Not sure id compare them to dot martix.. But regardless, normal laws of modern American business will apply here: They will feel threatened and purchase laws to prevent the competition from taking a hold.

Then when that is accomplished they will sue their customers who dare do it on their own.

And when all else fails, they will fund an education program to teach children its bad to make your own power, and anyone that does is evil and should be turned in. Then in 2 generations they have their monopoly back.

quote Originally posted by Nurb432: Not sure id compare them to dot martix.. But regardless, normal laws of modern American business will apply here: They will feel threatened and purchase laws to prevent the competition from taking a hold. Then when that is accomplished they will sue their customers who dare do it on their own. And when all else fails, they will fund an education program to teach children its bad to make your own power, and anyone that does is evil and should be turned in. Then in 2 generations they have their monopoly back.

Hell, We can't even get the public school system to teach kids year around. You know, we need to let the kids off for summer so they can tend the harvest.

If we had the government bureaucracy we have now back 150-years ago, today we would be heavily subsidizing the horse carriage industry and would have government research departments studying ways to best utilize the horse.

Most utilities are public utilities and heavily government regulated because of monopolization of utilities. But just as the telephone industry adapted and came out with products people wanted and need, I see no issue with utilities going in that direction either, so long as government gets their grubby hands off it, which I don't see that happening very quickly.

You have the TVA and other government owned companies that will want to keep the dinosaur around and everybody dependent.

quote Originally posted by Wichita: Hell, We can't even get the public school system to teach kids year around. You know, we need to let the kids off for summer so they can tend the harvest.

We have year round here, and we are still considered agricultural.

My suggestion comes directly from things the RIAA have done, both in buying laws and getting classes in primary schools... so not making this stuff up, unfortunately.

And of course schools have used for decades to quietly manipulate our future society. Both in good, and nefarious, ways..

quote Originally posted by Raydar: We lease a lot of circuits from the phone company for remote control of our substations. In at least one of those stations, the phone company has employed solar panels and batteries to power their Network Interface Unit. (Last card in the chain, where the circuit hands off to us. Aka, the "demarc".) In recent weeks, when we had extended periods of rain/clouds, the batteries went flat, which caused us to lose visibility to the station. Not an ideal situation, and used only because it's a high voltage (transmission) station, and there's no low voltage (distribution) lines available there. In other locations, we use our own batteries and solar cells to power our own equipment. It carries the same risk. This stuff ain't ready for prime time.

I agree. There just isn't a practical battery capable of reliably providing the reserve power needed. Commercial power is always a better choice unless you have no other option. .

quote Originally posted by ryan.hess: There are 2 types of solar inverters - grid tied and off-grid. Grid tied just "sync" with the grid and push power wherever it is needed. Off-grid use batteries when it gets dark. Both can be paralleled and give you 10 MW if that's what you need. You just need the 20 acres of solar panels to power it. I can't quite fathom 50MWH of power/day, but the ~$5 million it would cost would probably pay for itself over 10-20 years. BTW - I wouldn't consider two chinese solar "tinker toys" representative of solar power for commercial use. How much were they and how big are the solar panels? I don't know how much power a fence uses, but I'd guess >50 watts. You'd probably need a pretty big 3'x3' solar panel to keep it reasonably charged. 800 lumens works out to ~10 watts. The solar panel should be minimum 16" x 16", and that's for just enough power to make it through a 12 hour night after 5 hours of charging. If it gets cloudy - it should probably be 2x as big. Is it?

No, and I have no need for 12 hrs of light at my dock, but I do need 24/7 power to that fence, and it will be expensive both in $$ and potential damages and/or lives lost if cattle get out because the sun didn't shine. That's reality.

As you said, the other reality is that most places don't have the spare acreage for the large solar arrays, and no business in the real world would risk being shut down because of an extended time of heavy cloud cover.
Another reality is that these companies don't rely on their own products for sole power to manufactor their products. A telling sign.
Another telling sign, is that homeowners with rooftop panels don't go out and cut the lead-in lines to their homes either--and it isn't because they want to sell power back to the utilities. They, live in the real world.

Will alternative power replace our grid someday? Probably, but the reality (that's the world I and most of us live in) is that it is decades away--if that soon.
Just saying that it is going to happen some day is very much like saying we will all have flying cars one day. I'm not going to hold my breath for either to happen and I bet you aren't either.

[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 04-13-2013).]

quote Originally posted by Nurb432: Not sure id compare them to dot martix.. But regardless, normal laws of modern American business will apply here: They will feel threatened and purchase laws to prevent the competition from taking a hold. Then when that is accomplished they will sue their customers who dare do it on their own. And when all else fails, they will fund an education program to teach children its bad to make your own power, and anyone that does is evil and should be turned in. Then in 2 generations they have their monopoly back.

Agreed, similar to record companies and others seeing the end users finding ways of sharing that doesn't include them. Unfortunately those big corporations still carry too much weight in terms of money spent on lobbying groups etc. Someday the PEOPLE might realize they are actually freer and more powerful than they have been told/sold.


Some may embrace the new technology http://www.nrgsolar.com/how...pelling-solar-myths/

[This message has been edited by newf (edited 04-13-2013).]

When I put 3000W of solar panels on my house, the price of the panels was ~$2/watt. That was just 2 years ago. Now they are down to $0.60/watt.

quote Originally posted by ryan.hess: When I put 3000W of solar panels on my house, the price of the panels was ~$2/watt. That was just 2 years ago. Now they are down to $0.60/watt.

Is that retail cost, or your out of pocket cost?

One thing that is driving this false green economy is that the electric utilities are being forced to purchase the excess energy produced by the distributed systems at the sell rate, not the average cost of the other energy sources.

The purchase rate of excess energy needs to be at a rate that is a percentage of the sell rate. If green energy is to be successful in the long term it needs to stand on it's own merits and not be propped up by the other energy sources.

quote Originally posted by phonedawgz: One thing that is driving this false green economy is that the electric utilities are being forced to purchase the excess energy produced by the distributed systems at the sell rate, not the average cost of the other energy sources. The purchase rate of excess energy needs to be at a rate that is a percentage of the sell rate. If green energy is to be successful in the long term it needs to stand on it's own merits and not be propped up by the other energy sources.

"green" is the future, it has to be at some point. But its a long ways out still and sometimes you do need to subsidize upcoming technology. But one needs to be responsible about it too.

quote Originally posted by Formula88: Is that retail cost, or your out of pocket cost?

And, is the with or without government subsidies?

quote Originally posted by fierobear: And, is the with or without government subsidies?

That's what I was getting at. Subsidies won't last forever, so the retail price needs to drop enough to be competitive without subsidies.

If it were really all it's cracked up to be regarding investment and returns, companies would be buying up huge chunks of rural real estate left and right to generate solar power for big buck returns/ and wealth beyond our wildest dreams. The reality is--it ain't happening on any sizable scale at all. There's a reason for that and that reason is called reality. That, is where we live here on planet earth--reality.

quote Originally posted by maryjane: If it were really all it's cracked up to be regarding investment and returns, companies would be buying up huge chunks of rural real estate left and right to generate solar power for big buck returns/ and wealth beyond our wildest dreams. The reality is--it ain't happening on any sizable scale at all. There's a reason for that and that reason is called reality. That, is where we live here on planet earth--reality.

You're absolutely right. Subsidies are the only thing that make it economically attractive right now (or an advertising expense to appear "green.")
When it gets to the point where you can run completely off grid most of the time and recoup your investment in less than 10 years without subsidies or tax breaks, then it will start gaining a foothold.

quote Originally posted by Formula88: Is that retail cost, or your out of pocket cost?

Retail cost.

http://www.sunelec.com/

I've been browsing this thread for quite a bit, and there's a lot that I wanted to say but wanted to put it into better context, but whatever... I'll just blah it out.

I think there's a lot of good that can come from this, and in actuality, it could potentially spawn a huge, well-paid, service industry to go along with it.


From the stand-point of utilities... I'm constantly being told by liberal media that I need to conserve... that I need to use less because it hurts others. From that standpoint I consider myself an environmentalist and when my primary residence was in Florida, I basically did just that. I did it years before my other neighbors had used half the electricity and water that they did. Being ahead of the curve, I was able to save a lot of money in electricity and water bills. But just like with anything else, the utilities realized the huge loss of revenue... not so much loss of revenue, but considerable lack of income as a result of the cutting-back, and they had to raise the prices. In effect, before I left Florida, I was basically paying the same amount then, that I was paying almost 10 years ago when I first cut my power-bill in half. This really frustrates me because while I do realize that had I not done this, I would now be paying TWICE what I was paying (rather than it staying the same), I kind of feel like I've been punished for my decisions. That's the same feeling I get when I realize that the home owner behind me who bought their house, and then foreclosed on twice... had $200,000 grand just forgiven on their loan... and still can't pay their bill and are now squatting in their $500,000+ home. But whatever.


I don't see this as the end of the utility companies, so much as I see a significant liberation to the individual household consumer (should they want it). Florida has some decent laws where by tying into the grid, the power company will pay you back. I personally don't want to have to manage the storage of batteries, maintenance, etc. But I do really want a solar-array on my roof that can completely sustain the home "during the day." This would cut my power bill probably in half, maybe even by 2/3rds if I couple it in with some other changes like improved insulation and switching my CFLs to LED lights.

I'm actually really excited about where solar technology is going because when I first started to look at it (about 7-8 years ago), it was still incredibly expensive with nearly a 10+ year period before I'd see any ROI.


I think the utility companies will need to adjust, and I think that Florida is one of those states that's done an excellent job of encouraging people to move towards solar with tax breaks (for businesses, etc)... in the sense of taking the "libertarian approach" rather than forcing people. I think a lot of states could use Florida as a model for this. Of course, we have direct sunlight most days of the year... so it's the perfect place.

quote FWIW, 200MW puts the National Solar project on par with a number of natural gas/oil/coal/turbine power stations: http://en.wikipedia.org/wik..._stations_in_Florida

But only during the daytime. ;-)

I have a buddy who just started yesterday putting solar panels on his roof. Hes also putting up a home wind turbine generator as extra/ backup. He says the only things he has that really uses much power is his fridge and AC. He can get everything else in 12 volt or use inverters. I have a 20" LED flat screen thats 12 volt as well as DVD and VHS players. He could get a propane or 12 v fridge too. Im thinking about the same. It wouldnt be a real big deal to run my whole house from 12v. I seldom use AC. Id really just have to get a new fridge and get a gas powered air compressor. Of course if anyone buys this place, im already set somewhere else that barely uses any electric at all already.

Just a comment - people that have the current generation of panels/system do not usually cut their link to the grid for the main reason is storage. Newer system do not require storage batteries due to cost and space. You really require a separate space for the batteries that is vented to the outside as the batteries WILL out gas when they are charging - so this also adds to the cost.

When you stay connected to the grid it solves this problem as you simply feed unused power back into the system plus it can draw from the system when you need extra - this uses a special power meter that keeps track of power the power your supplied and the power you have taken from the grid. Sure you can still add batteries to the system, but that just adds more cost (and maintenance).

Anyways, the cost of the panels will still yet come down more once they perfect the printable electronics aspect of the process.

quote Originally posted by ryan.hess: Retail cost. http://www.sunelec.com/

Cool. Thanks for the link.

I thought solar cells provided electricity from just light, not direct sunlight , so they work fine even if its cloudy as long as its daytime ? I have a calculator that runs off solar cell on the top. If it dont work at nite, I just turn my desk light on and it comes on...?

[This message has been edited by rogergarrison (edited 04-15-2013).]

quote Originally posted by rogergarrison: I thought solar cells provided electricity from just light, not direct sunlight , so they work fine even if its cloudy as long as its daytime ? I have a calculator that runs off solar cell on the top. If it dont work at nite, I just turn my desk light on and it comes on...?

Any light will work. As long as light photons (no matter the source) are entering the cell it will generate electricity. However direct sunlight produces max power output.

Solar isn't quite at price parity with traditional sources, but the price is rapidly falling.

Solar with nuclear for baseload would be ideal, IMO.