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Shell Oil: by ryan.hess
Started on: 02-15-2011 12:47 PM
Replies: 28
Last post by: maryjane on 02-16-2011 09:06 PM
ryan.hess
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Report this Post02-15-2011 12:47 PM Click Here to See the Profile for ryan.hessClick Here to Email ryan.hessSend a Private Message to ryan.hessDirect Link to This Post
http://www.blog.thesietch.o...s-going-to-be-rough/

Info/graphics at the link.

"In summary:

1. We believe that the world is entering an era of volatile transitions and intensified economic cycles. The recession interrupted the oil and commodity price boom but it may return. Emerging nations like China and India are going through materially intensive development and a tighter market will continue to put pressure on prices and generate volatility. Improvements in policy-making and strong gains in productivity have helped economies to grow without inflation in the last two decades. We do not believe the moderating effect of this combination of good policies, good practices, and good luck will continue into the future.

2. We are seeing a step change in energy use. Developing nations, including population giants China and India, are entering their most energy-intensive phase of economic growth as they industrialise, urbanize, build infrastructure, and increase their use of transportation. Demand pressures will stimulate alternative supply and more efficiency in energy use — but these alone may not be enough to offset growing demand tensions completely. Underlying global demand for energy by 2050 could triple from its 2000 level if emerging economies follow historical patterns of development.

3. In broad-brush terms, natural innovation and competition could spur improvements in energy efficiency to moderate underlying demand by about 20% over this time. Ordinary rates of supply growth — taking into account technological, geological, competitive, financial and political realities — could naturally boost energy production by about 50%. But this still leaves a gap between business as- usual supply and business-as-usual demand of around 400 EJ/a – the size of the whole industry in 2000. This gap – this Zone of Uncertainty – will have to be bridged by some combination of extraordinary demand moderation and extraordinary production acceleration.

4. Supply will struggle to keep pace with demand. By the end of the coming decade, growth in the production of easily accessible oil and gas will not match the projected rate of demand growth. While abundant coal exists in many parts of the world, transportation difficulties and environmental degradation ultimately pose limits to its growth. Meanwhile, alternative energy sources such as biofuels may become a much more significant part of the energy mix — but there is no ‘silver bullet’ that will completely resolve supply-demand tensions.

5. Smart urban development, sustained policy encouragement and commercial and technological innovation can all result in some demand moderation. But so can price-shocks, knee-jerk policies and frustrated aspirations. Timescales are a key factor. Buildings, infrastructure and power stations last several decades. The stock of vehicles can last twenty years. New energy technologies must be demonstrated at commercial scale and require thirty years of sustained double-digit growth to build industrial capacity and grow sufficiently to feature at even 1-2% of the energy system. The policies in place in the next five years shape investment for the next ten years, which largely shape the global energy picture out to 2050.

6. The global economic crisis has coincided with a shift in geopolitical and economic power from west to east. This decisive shift is transforming the global economic and political system. The change is gradual, but its potential consequences are profound. The economic crisis in the west may accelerate this trend. Future generations may see 2008 as the turning point. The world faces a period of uncertain global politics. Strategic fault lines are emerging. Rising powers are increasingly and confidently asserting what they see as their national interests. This is undermining global mechanisms for ensuring collective security.

7. Environmental stresses are increasing. Even if it were possible for fossil fuels to maintain their current share of the energy mix and respond to increased demand, CO2 emissions would then be on a pathway that could severely threaten human well-being. Even with the moderation of fossil fuel use and effective CO2 management, the path forward is still highly challenging. Remaining within desirable levels of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere will become increasingly difficult."

[This message has been edited by ryan.hess (edited 02-15-2011).]

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Report this Post02-15-2011 12:52 PM Click Here to See the Profile for twofatguysClick Here to Email twofatguysSend a Private Message to twofatguysDirect Link to This Post
Ooooh, Shell oil is using scare tactics.

Working I see.

Brad
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Report this Post02-15-2011 01:01 PM Click Here to See the Profile for Doni HaganSend a Private Message to Doni HaganDirect Link to This Post
No matter how you look at it:


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Report this Post02-15-2011 01:03 PM Click Here to See the Profile for 82-T/A [At Work]Send a Private Message to 82-T/A [At Work]Direct Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by ryan.hess:

http://www.blog.thesietch.o...s-going-to-be-rough/

Info/graphics at the link.

"In summary:




I want to respond to this, not in a political manner, but speaking specifically about what I heard this past weekend. As I mentioned in an earlier post, I went to the World Money Show in Orlando at the Gaylord Palms. I was there from Thursday through Saturday.

There were some major investment people there, everyone from Steve Forbes, fund managers, to the guys from MSN Money, CNN Money, Personal Finance (KCI Investing), etc... all the big names.

What they said about Energy was this:


- India is expected to TRIPLE it's oil consumption by 2020.
- China is expected to double it's oil consumption by 2020.
- Oil will continue to go up, it will see another bubble, but that it will drop again, although still stay much higher than it is now.


One thing that really hit me though, was this... "Natural Gas"....

The United States has the largest supply of natural gas in the entire world. When burned, it is completely clean (if I understand this correctly). Natural gas is also EXTREMELY cheap right now... it's seriously undervalued not only because there is no demand for it, but because all the contracts for collecting and storing still have to be met which means there is a massive surplus of it.

Cities and automotive companies have been slow to move to it. No one really produces a natural gas production vehicle that you can just buy. Ford was the first with their CNG powered Ranger, Taurus, and Crown Victoria... but you can't even get those anymore... that was through the late 90s and early 00s. Honda has a CNG powered version of their Civic... but that, like with the Fords, is very much a special order.

There has been some movement lately... a few trucking companies have decided to switch to natural gas because of the recent restrictions put upon them by the diesel mandates from the EPA. In addition to this, natural gas is SOOO cheap, that these trucking companies can actually afford to convert all their existing vehicles, build 3 CNG stations at their major hub shipping routes and STILL save money in that same year. (the following year will be a windfall of cash).

I really, really don't understand why we don't open up the automotive market to more alternative fuels... especially since we have such a massive abundance of it here in the US.


I'd like to see more diesel compact vehicles, and CNG powered vehicles.

Ford was supposed to offer a diesel version of their Fiesta that was going to get 60+ mpg (which they already have in Europe)... what happened to that???

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Report this Post02-15-2011 01:30 PM Click Here to See the Profile for heybjornClick Here to Email heybjornSend a Private Message to heybjornDirect Link to This Post
If you don't like the price of oil, or paying greedy oil companies for their products, then quit doing it. While you are at, quit using plastics, pharmaceuticals, and a host of other items derived from oil. That'll show 'em. When Mr. Obama drives oil companies out. . . Whoops, enough of that; don't want to offend Jazzman or newf.
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Report this Post02-15-2011 01:33 PM Click Here to See the Profile for twofatguysClick Here to Email twofatguysSend a Private Message to twofatguysDirect Link to This Post

Right now where I live Natural gas (for your home) is a rip off.

This isn't because it's readily available, but because of the way cities set up for it.

First off you have to pay a monthly fee of 30+ dollars a month just to have natural gas to your house. Most cities require you to use natural gas for your home, even when other fuel is available. (propane, heating oil etc.)

Because of this Natural Gas is viewed as expensive, even if it's not really expensive. People will not quickly change their minds on this either.

If I look at my neighbors heating bill versus mine (Natural Gas for him, Propane for me) over the past month where we hit record low temperatures for much longer than average, my monthly cost was around 100 dollars, in propane, his was double that, mainly because he is starting at a 30 dollar a month deficit, the rest is because whatever company that regulates natural gas charges you more for it when it's cold out.

I'd be more than happy to drive around with Natural Gas, it's a good "alternative" to gasoline. I wonder if I could put my own well in and just use that gas.

Brad
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Report this Post02-15-2011 01:35 PM Click Here to See the Profile for twofatguysClick Here to Email twofatguysSend a Private Message to twofatguysDirect Link to This Post

twofatguys

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Member since Jul 2004
 
quote
Originally posted by 82-T/A [At Work]:
There has been some movement lately... a few trucking companies have decided to switch to natural gas because of the recent restrictions put upon them by the diesel mandates from the EPA. In addition to this, natural gas is SOOO cheap, that these trucking companies can actually afford to convert all their existing vehicles, build 3 CNG stations at their major hub shipping routes and STILL save money in that same year. (the following year will be a windfall of cash).


Source? Link?

I'm interested in what companies.

Brad
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Report this Post02-15-2011 01:45 PM Click Here to See the Profile for 2.5Send a Private Message to 2.5Direct Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by heybjorn:

If you don't like the price of oil, or paying greedy oil companies for their products, then quit doing it. While you are at, quit using plastics, pharmaceuticals, and a host of other items derived from oil. That'll show 'em. When Mr. Obama drives oil companies out. . . Whoops, enough of that; don't want to offend Jazzman or newf.


So far the other choice is burn food, corn.
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Report this Post02-15-2011 01:59 PM Click Here to See the Profile for 82-T/A [At Work]Send a Private Message to 82-T/A [At Work]Direct Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by twofatguys:


Source? Link?

I'm interested in what companies.

Brad



My source was a speech given by Steve Forbes at the World Money Show on Thursday. and then also, Roger Conrad from KCI Investing also talked about it as well the following Saturday. Roger Conrad runs the Energy Strategist from KCI Personal Finance.

http://www.moneyshow.com/Tr...d_moneyshow/main.asp

If you're asking for proof to see whether or not I'm full of **** , I can't give you any because I was at the show in person, hehe... I didn't write down the name of the company because I was more interested in the individual investments, rather than the shipping company.


You might find something about it on their Energy website by Roger Conrad and Elliot Gue. For what it's worth, they gave me a free login for the rest of this month to all World Money Show attendees. You can log in too, there's a lot of great investment information here:

http://www.energystrategist.com/

Click on LOGIN.

The username is:
The password is: dwarf


crap, I forgot the user name. I'll make an update post when I get home. I know the password is dwarf though. damnit...

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Report this Post02-15-2011 02:00 PM Click Here to See the Profile for madcurlClick Here to Email madcurlSend a Private Message to madcurlDirect Link to This Post
Shhh! The oil companies are speaking! They don't speak-up about they're huge profits nor do they explain why a oil rig thats pumping out the same oil for the past decades-suddenly the price of pumping it increases.
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Report this Post02-15-2011 02:35 PM Click Here to See the Profile for 82-T/A [At Work]Send a Private Message to 82-T/A [At Work]Direct Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by madcurl:

Shhh! The oil companies are speaking! They don't speak-up about they're huge profits nor do they explain why a oil rig thats pumping out the same oil for the past decades-suddenly the price of pumping it increases.


I read a lot about oil since I invest heavily in it, and I can explain that.

There's several things at play here...

1 - There are only two MAJOR "old wells" that make up the majority of the oil that's delivered to the world. One of them is in Mexico. Every oil well has a natural pressure. Most of the time, the pressure from the well is all that is needed to "pump" the oil out of the well. They basically put a nozzle on it, and the oil just comes up. Plain and simple. There is a "life" to every oil well. There is constant pressure on the oil in the pocket because of the weight of the earth above it. At some point, the pressure begins to subside. This is the half-life point of the oil well. When the pressure drops, the oil companies then have to start physically pumping gas and / or sea-water into the well in order to maintain the pressure. Where as there was once basically no cost at all to this well over and above the means to transport it and drill it, there is now considerable expense needed to maintain the pressure so that well can continue to produce oil at the same rate. The major oil field in Mexico that I was speaking of (forget the name) is now over the peak. That doesn't mean that most of the oil is gone, but it does mean that considerably more expense is needed to maintain it.

2 - The "DEMAND" has gone up. China, and India are two of the major growing markets for oil. Based on what I've heard from the various investors, China is expected to double it's oil consumption by 2020, and India is expected to TRIPLE it's oil consumption by 2020.

3 - Getting oil from old shale deposits is one thing that a lot of companies are trying to do now. The technology exists that we can now retrieve more oil from wells that were once abandoned... particularly in Texas. This has only recently begun in the past few years, and with a lot of the environmental regulations on the old wells, it's unlikely to make too much of a difference in the near future.

4 - Based on inflationary price, oil has to get above $70 dollars a barrel before it becomes cost effective to drill any new wells outside of our existing contracts we have in the gulf. These are only recently being explored now by companies such as Petrobras on the shores of Brazil, Conoco, etc...

5 - You also have price adjustment due to investors who hedge bets on the oil futures which in turn raise the cost of the commodity. This is what happened in 2007/2008 that eventually led to the oil bubble we had. It IS coming back now to some extent.

6 - There are multiple grades of oil from these wells. Only lite sweet crude is viable for refinement as regular gasoline. The others can only usually be refined into use for motor oil, plastics, etc. The media gets it all wrong, they base all the costs on West Texas Intermediate (Light Sweet Crude), but really the price adjustment is really based on the Brent Blend. We also have the Louisiana Light Sweet, and the Pennsylvania Crude (which is good for only motor oils and plastics). Since only a few of these can be refined into gasoline, that explains why the demand goes up in that respect (and why the cost of a quart of oil does NOT go up).


Brief fluctuations in the price of a barrel can be very much market driven by commodity traders... usually driven by a financial analyst that puts out a news report to scare people (usually after he's already bought many shares and barrels himself). But for the most part, the oil IS really driven by demand...

I'm beginning to think that the only way we can keep the price of oil low, is if we diversify our energy sources for automobiles.


EDIT: To emphesize that it's simply not a matter of conspiracy theory, but a matter of global supply and demand.


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2002 Ford Explorer Sport 2dr 4x2
2002 Ford Crown Victoria LX
1987 Pontiac Fiero SE / V6
1973 Volkswagen Type-2 Transporter

[This message has been edited by 82-T/A [At Work] (edited 02-15-2011).]

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Report this Post02-15-2011 02:48 PM Click Here to See the Profile for twofatguysClick Here to Email twofatguysSend a Private Message to twofatguysDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by 82-T/A [At Work]:

If you're asking for proof to see whether or not I'm full of **** , I can't give you any because I was at the show in person, hehe... I didn't write down the name of the company because I was more interested in the individual investments, rather than the shipping company.





No I believe you, I thought it was interesting and wanted to know more.

Brad
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Report this Post02-15-2011 03:00 PM Click Here to See the Profile for 82-T/A [At Work]Send a Private Message to 82-T/A [At Work]Direct Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by twofatguys:


No I believe you, I thought it was interesting and wanted to know more.

Brad



Ok, here it is:

http://www.energystrategist.com/

Click on LOGIN.

The username is: demoted
The password is: dwarf

There's lots of good stuff in there. That login/pw should work for ALL of their letters till the end of the month.

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Report this Post02-15-2011 04:37 PM Click Here to See the Profile for 84fiero123Click Here to Email 84fiero123Send a Private Message to 84fiero123Direct Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by Doni Hagan:

No matter how you look at it:





I want some bumper stickers like that, so I can put them on my gas cap doors.

Steve

------------------
Technology is great when it works,
and one big pain in the ass when it doesn't.
Detroit iron rules all the rest are just toys.

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Report this Post02-16-2011 01:31 AM Click Here to See the Profile for spark1Send a Private Message to spark1Direct Link to This Post
I’m not sure that CNG is a good choice for automobiles. The size of the tank required to get the same approximate range as with gasoline is impractical so more frequent fill-ups would be required. Large trucks and busses have the room for large tanks so CNG may make sense for those. The cars that were previously made to operate on CNG were bi-fuel and had serious performance issues when operated on CNG. I drove one once from Phoenix to Tucson (about 110 miles) and the CNG tank was empty when I got there.
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Report this Post02-16-2011 08:53 AM Click Here to See the Profile for 82-T/A [At Work]Send a Private Message to 82-T/A [At Work]Direct Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by spark1:

I’m not sure that CNG is a good choice for automobiles. The size of the tank required to get the same approximate range as with gasoline is impractical so more frequent fill-ups would be required. Large trucks and busses have the room for large tanks so CNG may make sense for those. The cars that were previously made to operate on CNG were bi-fuel and had serious performance issues when operated on CNG. I drove one once from Phoenix to Tucson (about 110 miles) and the CNG tank was empty when I got there.


You could also use LPG (right?), which we also have a ton of. I know about the mileage constraints, but I hadn't heard of any performance issues. I know the energy output is ever so slightly less than gasoline. Like... you'd have 160hp instead of 180hp... but most of the CNG guys on the Crown Victoria message board like their vehicles... they say they're slightly slower, but totally clean, and gas is cheap for them.

I like gasoline as much as the next guy, but I really think we need alternatives... not a replacement, but alternatives. There are many people who drive in the suburbs and the city who could REALLY benefit from CNG and don't need more than a ~150 mile range in a given week. I'm certainly not recommending that the whole world should switch to Smart Cars, I'd never buy one of those turd-cars... but a lot of people like them. If you can get one of those with CNG, that seems to fit the bill perfectly. I'd never criticize someone for wanting to buy a fuel efficient Smart Car, or an economy car... I think it's great.

I do like it as an alternative to gas though...

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Report this Post02-16-2011 10:03 AM Click Here to See the Profile for maryjaneSend a Private Message to maryjaneDirect Link to This Post
One of the problems with Natural Gas is the age of our delivery infrastruture--it's many decades old, will cost a huge amt of $ in real cost and a huge amt of inconvienence to the general public to dig up the ancient lines and replace them. As more and more of the public goes on line with NG, the pressures needed to supply it will have to increase, likely causing even more leaks, ruptures, and explosions. NG is pressure regulated down significantly only at the residence or business when it reaches the meter in most cases, tho the pipelines out in the boonies that are main trunk lines carry more pressure than in a metro area. Still, the lines out at the street or sidewalk are much higher pressure than what you see inside or under your house.

Interesting too, that the rising cost of pumping "old oil" was brought up, but I don't see Catscans, MRIs, or Xrays going down in price after the machinery has been paid off either. It doesn't matter if the machine is doing it's 1st imaging or it's 1000th image, the cost is the same or more for that 1000th image, just as it is with most things. Water isn't any cheaper for the 1 billionth gallon than it is for the 1st gal produced by a well supplying water to a city's drinking public. Is a bus ticket to get accross town cheaper for it's 1 millionth mile than it is for it's 1st mile? No. Does a mechanic charge less for the 100th muffler he installs than for his 1st one? No.

Many variables influence how a well acts. Pressure and flow in a well is benchmarked when it is 1st drilled and completed. They almost always freeflow at first, pressurized by overbearing strata, various gasses, biological interaction and even underground seawater trapped in a formation higher up in the connected geology. As this natural pressurization subsides with the withdrawal of hydrocarbons, the producer has several options. On a shallow well, he can use either a surface pump or a sub pump. On deep wells, something must be injected into the porus strata to mimic the original pressure parameters. This, is usually sea water, tho nitrogen is sometimes used. Oil companies are at the same same precipice everyone else is when it comes to energy costs. All this pumping and injection requires energy, and none of it is free--even to oil companies. Added to that, is the frequent mainenance needed for older wells. Perforation screens get plugged up, production casing becomes scaled up, eroded and has to be pulled out and replaced periodically, and it is expensive, especially offshore. None of this however, directly adds to or detracts from to the cost of a bbl of oil. It does, affect a producer's bottom line, but it does not affect what the market value of a bbl of oil is. That, is set strictly by market forces (supply vs demand) , market speculation by investors, and occassionally by political moves by entities such as OPEC and APEC.

Short term, we are ok on the upstream side (exploration/production). Most companies have replenished the oil they sold the previous year over 100%. Some as much as 200%. but at some point, as demand on the downstream (refining and marketing) side increases dramatically, this annual replenishment will be much more difficult to accomplish. When you see th annual reports of the majors indicate they were unable to replenish their proven reserves 100%, stand by for significantly higher oil prices and that of course, will translate to higher end user retail prices.

[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 02-16-2011).]

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Report this Post02-16-2011 10:33 AM Click Here to See the Profile for IsoldeSend a Private Message to IsoldeDirect Link to This Post
I can't see doing an LPG or even a CNG Fiero.
Seems like a fine idea for a new Chevy Colorado or GMC Canyon, if you get the 5.3L option, and live in a decent size city.
Not really a valid option for a full-size pickup that gets used right to it's capacity.
And nothing but a pickup can safely mount any adequate-sized tank.
I know a girl who has a Ranger, with a big tank in the bed. It seems great for a college student.

[This message has been edited by Isolde (edited 02-16-2011).]

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Report this Post02-16-2011 12:09 PM Click Here to See the Profile for AntiKevClick Here to visit AntiKev's HomePageSend a Private Message to AntiKevDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by Doni Hagan:

No matter how you look at it:



That should instead have the official seal of the United States along with each of the 50 state's seals or crests. Gas taxes make the price about twice what it should be.
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Report this Post02-16-2011 12:14 PM Click Here to See the Profile for 82-T/A [At Work]Send a Private Message to 82-T/A [At Work]Direct Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by AntiKev:


That should instead have the official seal of the United States along with each of the 50 state's seals or crests. Gas taxes make the price about twice what it should be.



Says the guy from Canada who's drilling for oil diagonally under our borders.

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Report this Post02-16-2011 12:50 PM Click Here to See the Profile for madcurlClick Here to Email madcurlSend a Private Message to madcurlDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by 82-T/A [At Work]:


I read a lot about oil since I invest heavily in it, and I can explain that.

There's several things at play here...

1 - There are only two MAJOR "old wells" that make up the majority of the oil that's delivered to the world. One of them is in Mexico. Every oil well has a natural pressure. Most of the time, the pressure from the well is all that is needed to "pump" the oil out of the well. They basically put a nozzle on it, and the oil just comes up. Plain and simple. There is a "life" to every oil well. There is constant pressure on the oil in the pocket because of the weight of the earth above it. At some point, the pressure begins to subside. This is the half-life point of the oil well. When the pressure drops, the oil companies then have to start physically pumping gas and / or sea-water into the well in order to maintain the pressure. Where as there was once basically no cost at all to this well over and above the means to transport it and drill it, there is now considerable expense needed to maintain the pressure so that well can continue to produce oil at the same rate. The major oil field in Mexico that I was speaking of (forget the name) is now over the peak. That doesn't mean that most of the oil is gone, but it does mean that considerably more expense is needed to maintain it.

2 - The "DEMAND" has gone up. China, and India are two of the major growing markets for oil. Based on what I've heard from the various investors, China is expected to double it's oil consumption by 2020, and India is expected to TRIPLE it's oil consumption by 2020.

3 - Getting oil from old shale deposits is one thing that a lot of companies are trying to do now. The technology exists that we can now retrieve more oil from wells that were once abandoned... particularly in Texas. This has only recently begun in the past few years, and with a lot of the environmental regulations on the old wells, it's unlikely to make too much of a difference in the near future.

4 - Based on inflationary price, oil has to get above $70 dollars a barrel before it becomes cost effective to drill any new wells outside of our existing contracts we have in the gulf. These are only recently being explored now by companies such as Petrobras on the shores of Brazil, Conoco, etc...

5 - You also have price adjustment due to investors who hedge bets on the oil futures which in turn raise the cost of the commodity. This is what happened in 2007/2008 that eventually led to the oil bubble we had. It IS coming back now to some extent.

6 - There are multiple grades of oil from these wells. Only lite sweet crude is viable for refinement as regular gasoline. The others can only usually be refined into use for motor oil, plastics, etc. The media gets it all wrong, they base all the costs on West Texas Intermediate (Light Sweet Crude), but really the price adjustment is really based on the Brent Blend. We also have the Louisiana Light Sweet, and the Pennsylvania Crude (which is good for only motor oils and plastics). Since only a few of these can be refined into gasoline, that explains why the demand goes up in that respect (and why the cost of a quart of oil does NOT go up).


Brief fluctuations in the price of a barrel can be very much market driven by commodity traders... usually driven by a financial analyst that puts out a news report to scare people (usually after he's already bought many shares and barrels himself). But for the most part, the oil IS really driven by demand...

I'm beginning to think that the only way we can keep the price of oil low, is if we diversify our energy sources for automobiles.


EDIT: To emphesize that it's simply not a matter of conspiracy theory, but a matter of global supply and demand.



Those are some good points, but what about the price increases during the last 20-years prior to China and India need for gas? Was there a big supply and demand then? Come on-is the Suez Canal being blocked in Egypt? No. What about those big SUV on the road. Supply and demand falls on deaf ears whenever I see one on the road. Like I said, oil companies using some of the same oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico for years and elsewhere, but if somebody coughs-thats a good enough excuse to raise the prices to line the pockets of the greedy oil owners.
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Report this Post02-16-2011 01:08 PM Click Here to See the Profile for maryjaneSend a Private Message to maryjaneDirect Link to This Post
Again, oil companys don't have to ability to arbitrarily raise the price of oil on a whim. Speculation and market forces do--period. They simply don't, any more than a farmer has the ability to increase the price/bushel he gets for wheat or soybeans. I don't have to ability to raise the price I get for timber I sell off my own property either--I have to sell it for whatever the market happens to be at any given time. Retailers OTOH, are a different story--they do have the ability, within the confines of competition and market demand, to raise the price of a finished product. Since we use virtually all the oil we produce, and producers actually have to purchase much of the oil they refine, from overseas exporters, they too are affected by what opec does. If the majors did have the ability to raise the price at their own discretion, believe me, we would have never seen oil drop below $100/bbl.

[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 02-16-2011).]

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Report this Post02-16-2011 01:14 PM Click Here to See the Profile for Formula88Send a Private Message to Formula88Direct Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by maryjane:Short term, we are ok on the upstream side (exploration/production). Most companies have replenished the oil they sold the previous year over 100%. Some as much as 200%. but at some point, as demand on the downstream (refining and marketing) side increases dramatically, this annual replenishment will be much more difficult to accomplish. When you see th annual reports of the majors indicate they were unable to replenish their proven reserves 100%, stand by for significantly higher oil prices and that of course, will translate to higher end user retail prices.



So you're saying now is still a good time to buy oil and energy stocks even though oil is close to $100 a barrel?
(hey, if we're gonna get boned at the pump, at least I can make some money off it with my investments)
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Report this Post02-16-2011 01:15 PM Click Here to See the Profile for 82-T/A [At Work]Send a Private Message to 82-T/A [At Work]Direct Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by madcurl:

Those are some good points, but what about the price increases during the last 20-years prior to China and India need for gas? Was there a big supply and demand then? Come on-is the Suez Canal being blocked in Egypt? No. What about those big SUV on the road. Supply and demand falls on deaf ears whenever I see one on the road. Like I said, oil companies using some of the same oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico for years and elsewhere, but if somebody coughs-thats a good enough excuse to raise the prices to line the pockets of the greedy oil owners.



Well, supply and demand IS being dictated by things like people driving big SUVs. But remember, most of that price increase we see today from 1991 to 2011 is due to inflation. In ~1995, gas was $1.29 a gallon, right now it SHOULD be more like $2.60 a gallon, but it is slightly inflated due to a variety of different things, including speculation.

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Report this Post02-16-2011 01:28 PM Click Here to See the Profile for maryjaneSend a Private Message to maryjaneDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by Formula88:


So you're saying now is still a good time to buy oil and energy stocks even though oil is close to $100 a barrel?
(hey, if we're gonna get boned at the pump, at least I can make some money off it with my investments)


Very difficult to predict, as long term, oil will be harder to find, and tho it will mean higher prices per bbl, oil will cost more due to increase in exploration and development, especially as the drilling environment moves to more hostile areas, thus the profit margin may be lower, which means a lower bottom line for the company. This, equates to lower stock prices, as dividends are likely to decrease on lower profit margins. Longterm, being in the 10-15 year range and further out. This is especially true of majors who no longer own their own retail service stations. Several majors sold off all their retail units already, tho the stations still carry the major's brand name and products, but the service stations are now privately owned. Exxon being one of them. Not sure if their partner Mobil sold it's retail units or not.

[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 02-16-2011).]

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Report this Post02-16-2011 02:09 PM Click Here to See the Profile for 2.5Send a Private Message to 2.5Direct Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by Isolde:

I can't see doing an LPG or even a CNG Fiero.
Seems like a fine idea for a new Chevy Colorado or GMC Canyon, if you get the 5.3L option, and live in a decent size city.
Not really a valid option for a full-size pickup that gets used right to it's capacity.
And nothing but a pickup can safely mount any adequate-sized tank.
I know a girl who has a Ranger, with a big tank in the bed. It seems great for a college student.



I know someone who lived in the dominican republic for a while, had an 87 Firedbird with a 305 and it ran on LPG. You caould actually run either gasoline or LPG. LPG made it more gutless and worse fuel economy but it functioned ok, they had a big LP tank bolted in the back of the hatch area.
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Report this Post02-16-2011 03:03 PM Click Here to See the Profile for spark1Send a Private Message to spark1Direct Link to This Post
The last service vehicle I drove was a dual-fuel (propane and gasoline) F-150 extended cab. I alternated the tanks and there was little difference in engine performance in town or on the highway. The only time I noticed a slight loss of power was when going over mountain passes. The 20 gallon propane tank took up about 1/3 of the truck bed which was already short because of the extended cab.

I didn't mind propane at all and filled the tank myself at the employer's pump. I think the truck got around 12 mpg on propane and 14 or so on gasoline. Nice thing was that with the two tanks the range was huge. In Arizona, the truck had to be emissions tested twice, once on each fuel. It was legal to drive in the HOV lanes though.

The CNG cars on the other hand (I think they were Cavaliers) seemed to lose a lot of power when switched from gasoline to CNG. That may be because the conversion wasn't optimal or the cars were underpowered from the start.

Alt fuel vehicles may make economic sense in the near future but they all seem to rely on government subsidies at the moment.
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Report this Post02-16-2011 08:59 PM Click Here to See the Profile for madcurlClick Here to Email madcurlSend a Private Message to madcurlDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by 82-T/A [At Work]:
Well, supply and demand IS being dictated by things like people driving big SUVs. But remember, most of that price increase we see today from 1991 to 2011 is due to inflation. In ~1995, gas was $1.29 a gallon, right now it SHOULD be more like $2.60 a gallon, but it is slightly inflated due to a variety of different things, including speculation.





In the stock market you know they bet against the price of oil, right? As for inflation please. 1933-48 does that ring a bell? There was WWII and countless little wars in between. Gas prices increased from 1978 from .55-58 per gallon to .80 in 1980-83 and then popped in $1.00 there after.

And what about Kurwait in the 1990s. What happened to all of those freaking oil fields that Saddam destroyed? I thought they owed the United States a favor for running those hoodlums out of their country.
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Report this Post02-16-2011 09:06 PM Click Here to See the Profile for maryjaneSend a Private Message to maryjaneDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by madcurl:
In the stock market you know they bet against the price of oil, right? As for inflation please. 1933-48 does that ring a bell? There was WWII and countless little wars in between. Gas prices increased from 1978 from .55-58 per gallon to .80 in 1980-83 and then popped in $1.00 there after.

And what about Kurwait in the 1990s. What happened to all of those freaking oil fields that Saddam destroyed? I thought they owed the United States a favor for running those hoodlums out of their country.

I don't remember us assuming a mercenary status working for Kuwait during Desert Storm, any more than we did regarding Europe or the Pacific Island nations during WWII.

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