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Go ahead... make your hurricane predictions for 2007 by ryan.hess
Started on: 02-04-2007 10:16 AM
Replies: 67
Last post by: Gokart Mozart on 12-17-2007 08:05 AM
ryan.hess
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Report this Post02-04-2007 10:16 AM Click Here to See the Profile for ryan.hessClick Here to Email ryan.hessSend a Private Message to ryan.hessDirect Link to This Post
With absolutely no training whatsoever, I'm going to predict the 2007 hurricane season. Possibly (probably?) better than the experts.

So, in 2007, there will be 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and 20 named storms, with an ACE of 200.

How do you do it? You look for patterns like a good trained monkey:


This is the ACE vs year. The accumulated cyclone energy has a pretty cyclical pattern. It also predicts hurricanes and named storms with good correlation. I think this year will be a repeat of 1998.

So go ahead... post your own predictions. Will it be a repeat of last year? Or 2005? Winner closest to observations gets a prize. (Admiration is a prize.... )
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Report this Post02-04-2007 11:19 AM Click Here to See the Profile for rogergarrisonClick Here to Email rogergarrisonSend a Private Message to rogergarrisonDirect Link to This Post
Ill go against the Goreites and say only one or two major storms affecting the US. Not any major damage like say New Orleans or Homestead ones. Ill also go ahead and predict no major floods this year because of shortages of snow cover this winter. With a relative mild winter for most and an early predicted spring, Ill guess fewer than average tornados too.

[This message has been edited by rogergarrison (edited 02-04-2007).]

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Report this Post02-04-2007 01:59 PM Click Here to See the Profile for ryan.hessClick Here to Email ryan.hessSend a Private Message to ryan.hessDirect Link to This Post
Down here we'll be getting much more rain and thunderstorms... and tornadoes.

I think most hurricanes will be steered out to sea. I wouldn't rule out a Louisiana or southern/mid-atlantic hit though.

http://upload.wikimedia.org...icane_season_map.png
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Report this Post02-04-2007 08:00 PM Click Here to See the Profile for DeV8erSend a Private Message to DeV8erDirect Link to This Post
26% probability that NY City/Long Island will be hit with a major hurricane (category 3 or more).

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Report this Post02-04-2007 08:07 PM Click Here to See the Profile for whadeduckClick Here to Email whadeduckSend a Private Message to whadeduckDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by ryan.hess:
I wouldn't rule out a Louisiana or southern/mid-atlantic hit though.





I'm only a few miles inland.

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[This message has been edited by whadeduck (edited 02-04-2007).]

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Report this Post02-04-2007 09:11 PM Click Here to See the Profile for EuterpeClick Here to Email EuterpeDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by ryan.hess:

With absolutely no training whatsoever, I'm going to predict the 2007 hurricane season. Possibly (probably?) better than the experts.

So, in 2007, there will be 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and 20 named storms, with an ACE of 200.

How do you do it? You look for patterns like a good trained monkey:
...

This is the ACE vs year. The accumulated cyclone energy has a pretty cyclical pattern. It also predicts hurricanes and named storms with good correlation. I think this year will be a repeat of 1998.


a nice little piece of "back of the napkin" analysis. i would bet that you're pretty close.

i would also bet that roger's ass is quite a practiced conversationalist.


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Report this Post02-04-2007 09:34 PM Click Here to See the Profile for RaydarClick Here to Email RaydarSend a Private Message to RaydarDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by rogergarrison:
...With a relative mild winter for most and an early predicted spring...


Speak for yourself. This has been the coldest winter of probably the last 4 or 5, here. I can remember winters where the temp only dropped below freezing once or twice all winter. In the last month, we've narrowly dodged the bullet on two different ice storms.
We're right on the line. We generally get ice storms instead of snow. Lucky us. Either that or just a lot of rain.

The hurricane season... One will hit the Gulf coast and tear things up. I'm guessing between Panama City and Pensacola. Maybe one will go up the Atlantic coast. Or maybe not.
Savannah and Brunswick will NOT sustain a direct hit. (Really going out on the limb with that one, eh?)
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Report this Post02-04-2007 11:46 PM Click Here to See the Profile for fierobearClick Here to Email fierobearSend a Private Message to fierobearDirect Link to This Post
It'll be a bad hurrican season, unless it isn't. Either way, it's because of global warming.
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Report this Post02-04-2007 11:56 PM Click Here to See the Profile for ray bClick Here to Email ray bSend a Private Message to ray bDirect Link to This Post
miami's hurricanes will be back in the top ten
with a new coach and most of thr team returning
we only go 6-6 on very bad years

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are you kind?

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Report this Post02-05-2007 02:42 PM Click Here to See the Profile for rogergarrisonClick Here to Email rogergarrisonSend a Private Message to rogergarrisonDirect Link to This Post
Were all only guessing. Next fall we will see who guessed best

While you mentioned cold in Ga, Most has been warmer. Here in Ohio we averaged 15-20* above average for last few months. It only got cold enough to call winter a few weeks or less ago. Now though, theyre saying that a LOT of places in the US from Hawaii to Maine are right now having record breaking cold....so much for the global warming thing. Hawaii just had 50* temps that broke their records lows too. Were below 0* and having a stretch of about a week of that.

And another small point......you know the Goreite picture with the 2 poor, stranded, dying polar bears.....seems that the picture their plastering everywhere was taken like 4 years ago by researchers watching them swim out and climb on the ice shaped by waves to play before they swam back to shore and wandered off.........
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Report this Post02-05-2007 02:44 PM Click Here to See the Profile for rogergarrisonClick Here to Email rogergarrisonSend a Private Message to rogergarrisonDirect Link to This Post

rogergarrison

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quote
Originally posted by fierobear:

It'll be a bad hurrican season, unless it isn't. Either way, it's because of global warming.


good save, lmao

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Report this Post02-05-2007 02:58 PM Click Here to See the Profile for ButterClick Here to Email ButterSend a Private Message to ButterDirect Link to This Post
I predict there will be some hurricanes in 2007.

Some will be worse than others.

There will be a hurricane where there has never been a hurricane before.

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Report this Post02-05-2007 03:13 PM Click Here to See the Profile for ray bClick Here to Email ray bSend a Private Message to ray bDirect Link to This Post
more cat 4 & 5 storms
if el nino kicks in hard more storms total
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Report this Post02-05-2007 03:18 PM Click Here to See the Profile for whadeduckClick Here to Email whadeduckSend a Private Message to whadeduckDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by Butter:

There will be a hurricane where there has never been a hurricane before.


OMG! Kansas look out!

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Report this Post02-05-2007 03:26 PM Click Here to See the Profile for ButterClick Here to Email ButterSend a Private Message to ButterDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by whadeduck:


OMG! Kansas look out!



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Report this Post02-05-2007 07:56 PM Click Here to See the Profile for Gokart MozartClick Here to visit Gokart Mozart's HomePageSend a Private Message to Gokart MozartDirect Link to This Post
Without looking at the official predictions, I'm going to say 9 land falls with 3 major.
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ryan.hess
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Report this Post04-03-2007 04:21 PM Click Here to See the Profile for ryan.hessClick Here to Email ryan.hessSend a Private Message to ryan.hessDirect Link to This Post
Dr Gray just released his official predictions...

Again, Me (trained monkey):
20 named storms
11 hurricanes
5 major hurricanes

Dr. Gray (paid $100,000,000/year to guess):
17 named storms
9 hurricanes
5 major hurricanes

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Report this Post04-04-2007 01:14 AM Click Here to See the Profile for fierobearClick Here to Email fierobearSend a Private Message to fierobearDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by ryan.hess:

Dr Gray just released his official predictions...

Again, Me (trained monkey):
20 named storms
11 hurricanes
5 major hurricanes

Dr. Gray (paid $100,000,000/year to guess):
17 named storms
9 hurricanes
5 major hurricanes


I say we go kick that guy's ass, and give YOU the money.

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Report this Post04-04-2007 07:15 AM Click Here to See the Profile for Richjk21Send a Private Message to Richjk21Direct Link to This Post
That would be no Stanley Cup repeat ... and no playoff appearance whatsoever ...... oh wait ... you weren't talking hockey, were you ?
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Report this Post04-04-2007 08:26 AM Click Here to See the Profile for PyrthianClick Here to Email PyrthianSend a Private Message to PyrthianDirect Link to This Post
I will say YES. there will be huricanes.

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Report this Post04-04-2007 09:18 AM Click Here to See the Profile for blackramsClick Here to Email blackramsSend a Private Message to blackramsDirect Link to This Post
Hmm, looking into the crystal ball, Swanee sees the wind blowing and rain, sometimes hard, sometimes not so hard and once in a while really hard while there is a chance once in a while it won't. That's all the free information I'm giving out till I see some greenbacks.

[This message has been edited by blackrams (edited 04-04-2007).]

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Report this Post04-04-2007 10:27 AM Click Here to See the Profile for whadeduckClick Here to Email whadeduckSend a Private Message to whadeduckDirect Link to This Post
We've been really lucky for the post few years. One of these years, our luck will run out and we'll get hit by another Hugo.

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Report this Post04-04-2007 11:07 AM Click Here to See the Profile for fierobearClick Here to Email fierobearSend a Private Message to fierobearDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by whadeduck:

We've been really lucky for the post few years. One of these years, our luck will run out and we'll get hit by another Hugo.



...and the Global Warming diciples will cry out "SEE! We TOLD you it was global warming". Just like any religion, no matter what happens, it's "God's will". Just substitute "Global warming" for "God".

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Report this Post04-04-2007 11:12 AM Click Here to See the Profile for FieroAuroraSend a Private Message to FieroAuroraDirect Link to This Post
I am gonna say there will definatly be hurricanes... perhaps only now they will be Greatlakes hurricanes so watch out Great LAkes States!
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Report this Post04-04-2007 12:33 PM Click Here to See the Profile for rogergarrisonClick Here to Email rogergarrisonSend a Private Message to rogergarrisonDirect Link to This Post
Well last month broke some cold records here, but then last few weeks broke heat records. Just shows this is what the planet does all the time. It was 82* here yesterday...all time record. Today its 30*, snow flurries predicted for weekend. Of course this is the way march and april have always been...up and down. Im still not stockpiling supplies, lol.
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Report this Post04-04-2007 01:13 PM Click Here to See the Profile for whadeduckClick Here to Email whadeduckSend a Private Message to whadeduckDirect Link to This Post
It's global warming!!! We're all gonna die!!!!

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Report this Post04-04-2007 07:08 PM Click Here to See the Profile for RaydarClick Here to Email RaydarSend a Private Message to RaydarDirect Link to This Post
Tonight's forecast:
Dark!
Continued mostly dark tonight.
Changing to widely scattered light in the morning.
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Report this Post04-05-2007 02:28 AM Click Here to See the Profile for fierobearClick Here to Email fierobearSend a Private Message to fierobearDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by Raydar:

Tonight's forecast:
Dark!
Continued mostly dark tonight.
Changing to widely scattered light in the morning.


More evidence of global warming. Send money to Al Gore NOW!

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Report this Post04-05-2007 12:01 PM Click Here to See the Profile for connecticutFIEROSend a Private Message to connecticutFIERODirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by fierobear:


More evidence of global warming. Send money to Al Gore NOW!


Is bashing global warming like pr0n for you? It's almost like you get off on it.

Wierd!

[This message has been edited by connecticutFIERO (edited 04-05-2007).]

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Report this Post04-05-2007 12:42 PM Click Here to See the Profile for fierobearClick Here to Email fierobearSend a Private Message to fierobearDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by connecticutFIERO:


Is bashing global warming like pr0n for you? It's almost like you get off on it.

Wierd!





No, not weird at all. I probably have only *half* the passion that most global warming nuts have. For me, it's a "cause celebre" or however you say it.

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Report this Post04-05-2007 01:53 PM Click Here to See the Profile for connecticutFIEROSend a Private Message to connecticutFIERODirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by fierobear:


No, not weird at all. I probably have only *half* the passion that most global warming nuts have. For me, it's a "cause celebre" or however you say it.


I believe Anthropogenic Global Warming is happening, and yet I haven't really posted anything in probably months up until my last reply which really isn't even about GW. Yet you posted 3 times in this thread alone. It's just odd. I can see having an opinion about something, but you talk about it ALL the time every chance you can like an obsession, except it's a negative obsession; instead of something you care about obsessively, you deride it obsessively. Wierd.

About hurricanes:

I believe we got off easy last year, this year will probably be above average in the number of storms. I don't about this year, but I have a feeling that we are going to get hit up North soon. Either Long Island/CT area, or Cape Cod area.

[This message has been edited by connecticutFIERO (edited 04-05-2007).]

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Report this Post04-05-2007 01:58 PM Click Here to See the Profile for fierobearClick Here to Email fierobearSend a Private Message to fierobearDirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by connecticutFIERO:


I believe Anthropogenic Global Warming is happening, and yet I haven't even posted anything until my last reply which really isn't even about GW. Yet you posted 3 times in this thread alone. It's just odd.


Well, I *do* have a passion on the subject. I think we're either being lied to about AGW, for political and economic reasons, or the people pushing it honestly don't realize that the issue is NOT settled. I certainly am getting tired of having the subject shoved down my throat, and being called all manner of names and insults when I express skepticism.

 
quote
I can see having an opinion about something, but you talk about it ALL the time every chance you can like an obsession, except it's a negative obsession; instead of something you care about obsessively, you deride it obsessively.


CT, you do the *same* thing when it comes to Bush, Republicans, Iraq, taxes, the housing market, corporations, etc. In fairness to you, I'm assuming you have a similar passion for those subjects. However, the shoe looks funny when it's on the other foot, eh?
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Report this Post04-05-2007 02:12 PM Click Here to See the Profile for connecticutFIEROSend a Private Message to connecticutFIERODirect Link to This Post
 
quote
Originally posted by fierobear:


CT, you do the *same* thing when it comes to Bush, Republicans, Iraq, taxes, the housing market, corporations, etc. In fairness to you, I'm assuming you have a similar passion for those subjects. However, the shoe looks funny when it's on the other foot, eh?


But you are arguing against a scientifically supported theory, I was arguing against a lying politician and his war. You may think the issue isn't settled, but you are in shady company with energy companies and businessmen who profit off of this. There is no good reason to think they have any other motive. You think Exxon Mobil cares about the United Nations climate reports for scientific accuracy purposes? No my friend, they want to continue their business model and reap the rewards, they know they are contributing to the warming and they are doing everything they can to stem the tide of political will. And you in your ignorance are helping them.
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Report this Post07-06-2007 07:18 PM Click Here to See the Profile for Gokart MozartClick Here to visit Gokart Mozart's HomePageSend a Private Message to Gokart MozartDirect Link to This Post
bump
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Report this Post07-06-2007 07:21 PM Click Here to See the Profile for Gokart MozartClick Here to visit Gokart Mozart's HomePageSend a Private Message to Gokart MozartDirect Link to This Post

Gokart Mozart

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Member since Mar 2003
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/arc.../MIATWSAT_jun.shtml?

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME...............DATES.........MAX WIND....DEATHS....U.S. DAMAGE
................................................MPH...............................$MILLION
---------------------------------------------------------------
STS ANDREA.....9-11 MAY.......50.................0................MINOR
TS BARRY.........1- 2 JUN.........60.................0................MINOR
--------------------------------------------------------------

[This message has been edited by Gokart Mozart (edited 07-06-2007).]

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Report this Post07-06-2007 07:30 PM Click Here to See the Profile for cliffwClick Here to Email cliffwSend a Private Message to cliffwDirect Link to This Post
Here is my prediction.
Corpus Christi is gonna get wiped out. I just spent three weeks steam cleaning, water blasting chipping paint, scraping and wire brushing the same, over three paint jobs with inadequate prep. Then, I replaced wooden siding which was rotted in places and trim. Last year, after hurricane season, someone sold my Mom like $13,000 worth of hurricane proof double pane windows.
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rogergarrison
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Report this Post07-07-2007 08:19 AM Click Here to See the Profile for rogergarrisonClick Here to Email rogergarrisonSend a Private Message to rogergarrisonDirect Link to This Post
Aha. The thread comes back, lol. I havent seen any hurricanes on the news yet. I dont understand how they base the damage from storms on the monetary value. A million dollars in damage now is nothing (that can happen now in just a traffic accident). A million dollars of damage in the 20s was tremendous. They need to come up with a better formula. Thats like the movie industry saying a movie is breaking all sales records. Its decieving because you could see a movie in the past like Gone with the Wind for a nickel and theaters now are getting $10-12 a ticket. It should be done by a head count or percentage basis because there are more people on the planel now too.
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Report this Post07-07-2007 08:34 AM Click Here to See the Profile for F-I-E-R-OClick Here to Email F-I-E-R-OSend a Private Message to F-I-E-R-ODirect Link to This Post
Probably the surest prediction to be made is that this guy will be out of a job before the hurricane season ends...

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rogergarrison
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Report this Post07-07-2007 08:37 AM Click Here to See the Profile for rogergarrisonClick Here to Email rogergarrisonSend a Private Message to rogergarrisonDirect Link to This Post
Ya, ive heard more on the news about him than any storms, lol.
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Report this Post08-01-2007 07:47 AM Click Here to See the Profile for Gokart MozartClick Here to visit Gokart Mozart's HomePageSend a Private Message to Gokart MozartDirect Link to This Post
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
They finally named the 3rd storm: Tropical Storm CHANTAL
The 4th is on it's way: Tropical Storm ERICK
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