Ya but I dont count ones that die out at sea without doing anything except make ships reroute, lol. Thats like saying the forests are disappearing when a rotten tree falls down. Technically correct, but no point.

quote Originally posted by Gokart Mozart: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ They finally named the 3rd storm: Tropical Storm CHANTAL The 4th is on it's way: Tropical Storm ERICK

The next 3 weeks are going to be busy. 2 hurricanes? GFS is developing a wave off Africa and Invest 99L..... (Possibly TD-8 by now?)

quote Originally posted by connecticutFIERO: But you are arguing against a scientifically supported theory...

The key word being, "theory"... I believe the planet is warming...I don't believe our contribution to it is anything more than negligible, if that much. One medium-small volcano such as St. Helens affects the climate much more profoundly and rapidly than anything we puny homo sapiens can accomplish. You wanna see climate change? If the Yellowstone caldera volcano erupts in our lifetimes, we'll wish we COULD warm the planet.

quote Originally posted by Vonov: The key word being, "theory"... I believe the planet is warming...I don't believe our contribution to it is anything more than negligible, if that much. One medium-small volcano such as St. Helens affects the climate much more profoundly and rapidly than anything we puny homo sapiens can accomplish. You wanna see climate change? If the Yellowstone caldera volcano erupts in our lifetimes, we'll wish we COULD warm the planet.

Scientific Theory is not the same as the commonly used word "theory". It's not even close. I'm not going to spend the time explaining it, but I have read a decent explanation on answers and wikipedia. Check it out if you don't want to make that mistake again.

I'm reminded of Father Guido Sarducci's weather forecasts: "The weather report for tonight is dark. With continued darkness until morning....when it will start to get light again".

My prediction is that YES, there will be hurricanes in 2007.

Here endith my contribution to a discussion of meteorology.

Who said it first, Father Guido or George Carlin?
Al Sleet, the hippy, dippy weatherman 7:40 in.

[This message has been edited by Gokart Mozart (edited 08-03-2007).]

I heard now even the national hurricane center has reduced their estimates too. Someone go wake up Al.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.go...ooks/hurricane.shtml
Issued: 9 August 2007

NOAA is predicting a very high likelihood (85% chance) of an above-normal 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season, according to a consensus of scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Research Division, and Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

The outlook calls for an even higher probability of an above-normal season than was predicted in May (75%), and reiterates the expectation for a sharp increase in activity from the near-normal season observed last year. The 2007 season is expected to become the tenth above-normal season since the current active hurricane era began twelve years ago (in 1995). See NOAA’s definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons.

The 2007 outlook calls for a likely range of 13-16 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. The likely range of the ACE index is 140%-200% of the median. These ranges are slightly tighter than those predicted in May (13-17 named storms, 7-10 hurricanes, 3-5 major hurricanes, and an ACE range of 125%-210%). The tighter ranges reflect not only an increased confidence for an above normal season, but also a reduced likelihood of seeing as many as 10 hurricanes and 17 named storms.

While the pansy NHC and NOAA get to revise their "guesses" during the year, I'll stick to my February guns of 20 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes.

Since Dennis is now a major hurricane, I guess we can expect 4 more.

Dean, Cat 5
Felix, Cat 5, close to Dean's path
In the Pacific; T S Henriette, getting ready to hit Baja Cali. AZ and NM expect rain.

Total named storms: 6
Total hurricanes: 2
Major hurricanes (Cat. 3+): 2

so lets see, my guesstimates leave 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes left in the season. So far the ACE has been 44, leaving 156 for the remainder of the season. Since we have 8 weeks left in the hurricane season, we're going to have to have 1.75 named storms per week.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml

Table 1. Progress of the average Atlantic season (1944-2005). Date upon which the following number of events would normally have occurred.

Number...Named systems....Hurricanes.....Category 3 or greater
1............July 10..................Aug 14...........Sep 3
2............Aug 6....................Aug 30...........Sep 25
3............Aug 20..................Sep 9.............-
4............Aug 29..................Sep 22...........-
5.............Sep 5...................Oct 10...........-
6............Sep 12..................Nov 17...........-
7............Sep 20..................-....................-
8............Sep 30..................-....................-
9............Oct 12..................-....................-
10..........Nov 3....................-...................-

TS Gabrielle (#7) about to hit N.C.

Well, the season is half over.

Yes indeed it is.

13 Named storms
4 hurricanes
2 major hurricanes.

Going by my predictions, there will be another 7 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes...

ehh, we'll see.

I could believe 7 named storms and 1-2 major hurricanes. High shear killed karen and melissa. The trend might continue..

Well so much for Gores idea

Just released today is that 07 was the least active hurricane season in many decades.

quote Originally posted by rogergarrison: Well so much for Gores idea Just released today is that 07 was the least active hurricane season in many decades.

It's Bush's fault!

Oh, wait...

quote Originally posted by rogergarrison: Just released today is that 07 was the least active hurricane season in many decades.

We're on "N" names and the season is not over... last year we stopped at "I"...... Not sure how that is "many decades"...

I think we got lucky this year... Imagine if hurricane dean or felix hit the US. We would probably still be talking about it.

Just repeating what the news said. Im going to guess by inactive they dont necessarily mean less in number, just a lot less distructive. Many decades would have to be at least 20 years. Last year was a non show too if I remember right. Did any even hit the US at all this or last year that did any damage. This (and last ) were supposed to be many many more and more violent ones and didnt happen at least here in US.

quote Originally posted by rogergarrison: Just repeating what the news said. Im going to guess by inactive they dont necessarily mean less in number, just a lot less distructive. Many decades would have to be at least 20 years. Last year was a non show too if I remember right. Did any even hit the US at all this or last year that did any damage. This (and last ) were supposed to be many many more and more violent ones and didnt happen at least here in US.

But...but..but...Al Gore PROMISED us that things would be getting worse RIGHT NOW!!! What happened??? The world should be flooding by now! What went WRONG???

quote Originally posted by ryan.hess: Dr Gray just released his official predictions... Again, Me (trained monkey): 20 named storms 11 hurricanes 5 major hurricanes Dr. Gray (paid $100,000,000/year to guess): 17 named storms 9 hurricanes 5 major hurricanes

Actual 2007 season:

14 named storms
6 hurricanes
2 major hurricanes.

I guess that's why he gets the big bucks?

2007 had an ACE of 67. Look at the graph on the first page. Statistically, when two years have been in the "low activity" half of the cycle, the next year has been astronomically high activity. 1982-83, ACE of 25, 1984 ACE of 75. 1986-87 ACE of 40, 1988 ACE of 100. 1993-94 ACE of 40, 1995 ACE of 225. The only one that doesn't fit is 2000-2001, but the first point (2000) is still above the moving average, so it might not count. Both 2006 and 2007 are well, well below average. So, 2008 = repeat 2005?

quote Originally posted by ryan.hess: Actual 2007 season: 14 named storms 6 hurricanes 2 major hurricanes. I guess that's why he gets the big bucks? 2007 had an ACE of 67. Look at the graph on the first page. Statistically, when two years have been in the "low activity" half of the cycle, the next year has been astronomically high activity. 1982-83, ACE of 25, 1984 ACE of 75. 1986-87 ACE of 40, 1988 ACE of 100. 1993-94 ACE of 40, 1995 ACE of 225. The only one that doesn't fit is 2000-2001, but the first point (2000) is still above the moving average, so it might not count. Both 2006 and 2007 are well, well below average. So, 2008 = repeat 2005?

So, can we admit it's a natural cycle, and not global warming?

Only because no big ones hit the US.

quote Originally posted by ryan.hess: Actual 2007 season: 14 named storms 6 hurricanes 2 major hurricanes.

quote Originally posted by Butter: I predict there will be some hurricanes in 2007. Some will be worse than others. There will be a hurricane where there has never been a hurricane before.

See LOOK I was correct

quote Originally posted by fierobear: So, can we admit it's a natural cycle, and not global warming?

Global warming is a cycle.

quote Originally posted by Butter: See LOOK I was correct

You're a better prognosticator than the NHC!

quote Originally posted by ryan.hess: You're a better prognosticator than the NHC!

I was learned by the best. In my area we had an Old Timer Mr. White that would give the weather report on a local radio station. Seems most everyone liked to hear him predict the weather cause when he got done everyone had to be happy. He would predict everything possible in the forcast for the day. (Might rain might not) I heard the Hee Haw show invited him to appear but he turned them down as he was serious about his forcast

They said on the news this morning hurricane season now is officially over with only 1 on record making landfall.....zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

http://www.noaanews.noaa.go...29_hurricaneend.html

As 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Ends, Questions Remain
November 29, 2007

As the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season officially comes to a close on November 30, NOAA scientists are carefully reviewing a set of dynamic weather patterns that yielded lower-than-expected hurricane activity across the Atlantic Basin. As a result, the United States was largely spared from significant landfalling storms. However several noteworthy events took place, including two back-to-back Category 5 hurricanes hitting Central America and the rapid near-shore intensification of the single U.S. landfalling hurricane.

As a whole, the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season produced a total of 14 named storms, including six hurricanes, two of which became major hurricanes. NOAA’s August update to the seasonal forecast predicted 13 to 16 named storms – of which seven to nine would be hurricanes, including three to five major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher. An average season has 11 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes, including two major hurricanes.


Tracks of all named storms of the 2007 season; Stronger-than-predicted winds over the Caribbean and western tropical Atlantic led to stronger wind shear- limiting storm formation, duration, and intensity.

"The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season produced the predicted number of named storms, but the combined number, duration and intensity of the hurricanes did not meet expectations,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “The United States was fortunate this year to have fewer strong hurricanes develop than predicted. Normally, the climate patterns that were in place produce an active, volatile hurricane season.”

The climate patterns predicted for the 2007 hurricane season – an ongoing multi-decadal signal (the set of oceanic and atmospheric conditions that have spawned increased Atlantic hurricane activity since 1995) and La Niña – produced the expected below-normal hurricane activity over the eastern and central Pacific regions. However, La Niña’s impact over the Atlantic was weaker than expected, which resulted in stronger upper-level winds and increased wind shear over the Caribbean Sea during the peak months of the season (August-October). This limited Atlantic hurricane formation during that period. NOAA’s scientists are investigating possible climate factors that may have led to this lower-than-expected activity.


Now for 2008...