these predictions are to be for a 1yr period , from the 2004 elections - November 2005
this gives the predictions 1 full year to playout...
predictions only! no "descussions"
this topics should be pure opinion without "debate"
it should be alot of fun to review the results for 2004-2005 to see who called it the closest..
Good luck!
I like you ceo and you seem to have a generally fair and objective way of dealing with people, but I must say, as I said to Ray, that it is very difficult to understand what you are trying to convey. In this case, the basic facts of your fun little proposition are untrue, so it not only hurts your position (argument), it kind of makes the right in general look uneducated. Maybe learn a little more about basic grammar and American political structure and then comment on it.
“these predictions are to be for a 1yr period , from the 2004 elections - November 2005 this gives the predictions 1 full year to playout...”
OK, but what about what predicates the outcome of the election? What events might transpire between now and next November? That is likely more important than the following year, after all, we are losing US service people left and right.
“predictions only! no "descussions"”
Do you really expect this to happen form anyone’s side? You even subtly throw in your own commentary, so you can expect others to not follow suit.
“this topics should be pure opinion without "debate"”
Yea, that’ll happen. Besides, what fun is posing an opinion without debating the merits?
“it should be alot of fun to review the results for 2004-2005 to see who called it the closest..”
Do you think this thread will be archived with an easy way of referencing it in the future? It will be discussed and forgotten, but nice idea anyway. If you were to ask Cliff to bookmark it for easy retrieval I imagine he would not. This is a Fiero forum not a political sanctuary, so the OT is just a way to keep clear the incidental conversation.
“My Predictions: 1.Bush will get re-elected”
Kind of early, ya think? What if our mini Viet Nam turns major? What if the casualty count is in the thousands, which it will likely be over 1,000? We haven’t been used to having 1k dead Americans in war for some time, so that may hurt his potential reelection.
“2. republicans will recieve more seats in both congress and the senate creating a "super majority"”
OK, here is where you exhibit how much you don’t know about the fundamental workings of Congress. Congress is comprised of 2 chambers, the Senate and the House of Representatives. There are 100 Senators, 2 per state. There are 435 Representatives that are apportioned by the various state’s populations. These apportionments can and do change as population percentages shift. So when you write, “…both congress and the senate creating…” the Senate is a branch of Congress, so that statement makes no sense. As for Republicans receiving more seats, well, that will be hard in spite of the trend toward conservatism. Things tend to stay toward the middle as far as balance, and there are obviously more Republican Representatives and Senators than there are Dems.
“3. democrat party will gradualy desolve in the fallowing manor -conservitive dem's ,become Republicans "career preservation" -moderate dem's ,become Libertarians "also career preservation" -libral dem's remain democrats and ride the sinking ship all the way down till the party is ultimately no more."hopefully"” If only the Republicans had the total savvy that you have in the way of grammatical savvy, we would be in better shape. What is this career preservation? Is that for the politicians or the voters? As much as hate the Democratic Party, for reasons that you unable to convey, it would be matter of being careful of what you wish for if it ever were to hypothetically happen. What would then classically happen is there would be a divide within the Republican Party where they use some form of bias to segregate whatever the controllers and/or the majority feel are favorable attributes, and reject/criticize the others. Don’t count on the Democratic Party going away, probably ever, as they are the oldest American party not counting the Federalist Party. If you watched political trends, you would be aware that they shift from side to side, and if the balance were to ever go extreme either way, this country would really be a horrible place to live.
“4. Dow jones will be back to pre-9:11 market value of "10,000+"”
If you were actually watching, you would realize that the market was over 12k, so the 10k+ market was considered to be depleted when it maintained a 10k tally. I like how you write, “…pre-9:11 market…” and not a Clinton-based economy.
“5. unemployment will be less than 3% nation wide”
Oh please, when will that ever be? It wasn’t that low even in the Clinton hey-day, was it? Besides, that number is a very skewed number anyway. Once a person’s benefits run out, they fall off the list making it appear as though they became unemployed, when in reality they are worse off than just being unemployed.
“6. a majority of senior citizens will begin to see and like the benifits of the new medicare reform bill”
This is where you tip your hat. Are you aware, my Republican cheerleading friend, that the Medicare Bill doesn’t take effect until 2006? That’s rhetorical for, ‘learn something about politics and put your pom-poms away.'
[This message has been edited by maryjane (edited 11-28-2003).]
"Works for me. 1. Bush gets relelected-but assasinated in 1st qtr '05."
Don't look for an argument here. What was someone saying about reaping what they deserve? Send thousands off to their deaths, get killed. Never happen though, as Bushy is doing what the 'system' wants.
"2. Senate remains at current status House become liberal majority"
I think the Senate has a closer margin than the House, not that the House couldn't drastically swap, but it's more likely that the Senate will be the first to swing, whenever that is.
"3. Bill & Hillary break from Democratic party and start their own."
I don't see it, but ya neva know.
"4.Un-employment will be around 6%."
So then nothing will change. Probably true.
"5.majority of 2004's senior citizens will see little difference in their medicare benefits. by 2035, most will be dead."
True on first account, but seniors will be dead sooner if republicans have their, "Soilent Green" form of Medicare!!!
Very searchable, but how many subjects, unlike this one, have been really compelling and no one has thought to remember to search? It will fade into the sunset like most others.
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02:30 PM
Toddster Member
Posts: 20871 From: Roswell, Georgia Registered: May 2001
I predict someone will bookmark this thread and throw it back in I'm Back's face.
I also predict lots of laughter at his expense.
clearly the President can't lose the election. Let's face it, have you seen or heard the competition!?
I don't know about Congress, however. America loves balance and I actually think the Dems have their best chance in a decade to pick-up a few seats. Especially when you consider the amount of spending the current Congress has run up.
The economy will continue to grow but unemployment will not fall below 4%. The reality is that there are people who just don't really want to work but would rather be on the dole.
October is typically a slow month for the stock market. The Dow Jones industrials will definitely pass the 10,000 mark but it will slip a bit just before the election.
Saddam will have been caught. But Bin Laden will still be on the lamb.
Iraq will declare the last day of combat fighting a National Liberation Day.
The US will have a show down with the WTO. It will likely start with the Steel Industry in 9 days from now and end when the US pulls out.
South America will begin to discuss a Uniform currency (ala the Euro) and will become a reality before the end of Bush's second term.
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05:36 PM
ceo Member
Posts: 306 From: Wichita Ks USA Registered: Sep 2003
Very searchable, but how many subjects, unlike this one, have been really compelling and no one has thought to remember to search? It will fade into the sunset like most others.
use this 1 instead "there 0 found" when i used it "so that should narrow the results"
"about my grammer" although i am offended that you obviously are unwilling to offer me a little "tolerance" , I will be man enough to agree that my grammer "isn't my strong point" and ask for your help in that erea.
since it seems to be a major anoyance to you. "Would you please help me with my grammer instead of hammering me with it"
obviouly when it comes to grammer "I could be considered needy" so i would appreciate a little assistance from a good sumaritian "will you help me? please!
and yes this was meant to be a personal jab at your claim to be a democrat who cares about the needy and tolerance . but at the same time , im honestly asking for your help
"my veiws on polotics are mostly moderate" i believe you can't have a conservitive government without a moderate society"
i believe a libral society would demand too much intervention from a conservitive/liberal government "and will end up backrupting it"
a coservitive society would do everthing posible to with-hold money from government which would reduce government resources to the point of bankruptcy
only a moderate society would be happy to give money to the government "only in moderation" but it would have to be a conservitive government , since a liberal gov. would legislate money from the publics pocket if they couldn't get a general consenous
i have no problem with charitable giving wether it be through private organisation or through government intervention as long as the recipient recieve the fullest benifit of the money "which can only happen after the frauduanl claims are eleminated"
i have a problem when the government raises taxes for such programs when "they should have made them more efficient fisrt"
i am fair when it comes to these issues "because i realise it could be me in need of such services , at any point in my lifetime"
and if i were dependant right now "i would be angry that someone is recieving money they dont legitamately have a claim to"
these programs could be of more assistance to those who need them , if all the abuse where removed from the system...
i dont think we should end welfare or social security or even umemployment but those services should not be recieved by those abusing them "leaving less money to help those who need it"
sorry for the long reply but i just had to get my point accross.
[This message has been edited by ceo (edited 11-28-2003).]
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05:36 PM
jstricker Member
Posts: 12956 From: Russell, KS USA Registered: Apr 2002
On the day President Bush was inaugurated, the Dow closed at 10,587.60.
That means the market fell while under the last year of the Clinton administration 1,135.38 points.
It closed today at 9782.49 which means that from the day President Bush came into office until today, the market is down 805.11 points or about 7.6% and that is after absorbing the effects of a 1,369.7 point drop in the 10 days following 9/11/2001.
If you were actually watching, you would realize that the market was over 12k, so the 10k+ market was considered to be depleted when it maintained a 10k tally. I like how you write, “…pre-9:11 market…” and not a Clinton-based economy.
[This message has been edited by jstricker (edited 11-28-2003).]
On the day President Bush was inaugurated, the Dow closed at 10,587.60.
It closed today at 9782.49 which means that from the day President Bush came into office until today, the market is down 805.11 points or about 7.6% and that is after absorbing the effects of a 1,369.7 point drop in the 10 days following 9/11/2001.
[This message has been edited by jstricker (edited 11-28-2003).]
"More lies and/or simple ignorance."
First he posts a PM from me to him so I ignore him, and then he continues to grossly insult me and carries virtually a unanimous positive rating. Don't ask what I think of the rating system.
"That means the market fell while under the last year of the Clinton administration 1,135.38 points."
Not that I want to get into any discussions with you, as I am abstaining until you acknowledge what you did, but I have said on every occasion it was posed to me that the economic indicators were starting to point down at the end of the Clinton run. Who's lying now?
Be a man of character as you claim to be and admit that posting a PM (private Message) is classless. The point of PM's is to take fights off the air - show us what you're made of.
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08:45 PM
I'm Back Member
Posts: 3780 From: Phoenix, Az, USA Registered: Oct 2002
"I predict someone will bookmark this thread and throw it back in I'm Back's face."
And do you whine about the supposed liberals running garbage in PFF? Either way, what do you call this kind of dialogue? If I'm correct and I bookmark this, it will be justified or brushed off, so who cares what you do with it regardless of the outcome of next November?
"I also predict lots of laughter at his expense."
Doesn't matter, this forum, being conservative, more people will laugh at the minority. Just as the few members laugh at the majority....and the so-called liberals are lemmings?
"clearly the President can't lose the election."
Wow, and who wins the Superbowl and by what spread? I'm not calling a victory for the Dems, in fact, I recently wrote in one thread that the Repubs have the edge. I feel this is primarily due to the fact that the incumbent inherently has the edge. I don't think it's a mail-in by any stretch though.
"Let's face it, have you seen or heard the competition!? "
And you're giving American voters credit for voting based upon merit? JDumbya is clearly the dumbest President we have ever had, so the intellect competition is not part of the menu.
"I don't know about Congress, however. America loves balance and I actually think the Dems have their best chance in a decade to pick-up a few seats. Especially when you consider the amount of spending the current Congress has run up."
I think the Dems will pick up seats, but it may or may not be enough to win simple majority. We shall see.
"The economy will continue to grow but unemployment will not fall below 4%. The reality is that there are people who just don't really want to work but would rather be on the dole."
Sure, just as much of the 90's boom was a dot.com-based boom, much of this resurgence is due to the overdue rebound cycle of the economy. It should slowly keep incresing, but the worry is with jobs, especially good paying jobs. With Bush signing in this Overtime Bill, the high paying jobs may be fewer.
"October is typically a slow month for the stock market. The Dow Jones industrials will definitely pass the 10,000 mark but it will slip a bit just before the election."
Way early to say.
"Saddam will have been caught. But Bin Laden will still be on the lamb."
Okee-dokee.
"Iraq will declare the last day of combat fighting a National Liberation Day."
Whatever.
"The US will have a show down with the WTO. It will likely start with the Steel Industry in 9 days from now and end when the US pulls out."
Naw, the bigs of the US want to keep the WTO to keep world labor wages low.
"South America will begin to discuss a Uniform currency (ala the Euro) and will become a reality before the end of Bush's second term."
For South America? Maybe, but won't affect us. Don't count your chimp before he's hatched.
On the day President Bush was inaugurated, the Dow closed at 10,587.60.
That means the market fell while under the last year of the Clinton administration 1,135.38 points.
It closed today at 9782.49 which means that from the day President Bush came into office until today, the market is down 805.11 points or about 7.6% and that is after absorbing the effects of a 1,369.7 point drop in the 10 days following 9/11/2001.
[This message has been edited by jstricker (edited 11-28-2003).]
well i have to say thankyou for post the info. and to point out the fallowing. -im on unemployment -the company i work for has mostly democrat managers
when they anounced the layoff "none of them" said "it was due to bush's economic policies" insted they directly claimed "business has slown down since 9-11 when other companies cancled their orders for our product"
i've asked "a couple of them that i can actualy talk to" if bush had anything to do with the companies problems "they responsed with"
it doesn't matter who is president "our business depends on sales" and theres nothing any president can do to make a sale for us or take a sale from us 9-11 was the only factor that contributed to this years layoff
they also said that the only way a sitting president could effect the companies status would depend on how quickly he could motivate people to resume living their lives
the company has me and others on temporary layoff because they believe that the economy is flexible enough to recover "with out having to terminate employees"
does it suck to be on lay off "not for me" my bills are pretty mild "im not a big spender or high debt type" so the unemployment i get is just enough to get by and spend more quality time with the wife..
but it definately show the bias of some liberal to take advantage of 9-11 and the war on terror "just to gain some political points" when they know they would have done the same thing if they where the majorty "the american public would have demanded it" and they would have given us what we wanted for 2 major reasons 1. re-election 2. historical praise for them and their party
must suck for democrat to see that bush will definately be remember for such a heroic role in american history and all the bush banshing will just fade away
"librals should consider what they are doing" could end up being described as "protest to a heroic president in future history lessons" that wouldn't look good for the democrat party
no matter how well intensioned their protest was... it's not that i think you lib's should "shut up" i just think that you should structure you arguements ,so they dont appear to protest the nations response to a terror attack on 9-11
dont argue about bushes intention , tell america how and why you'd do things different
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09:23 PM
jstricker Member
Posts: 12956 From: Russell, KS USA Registered: Apr 2002
I'm running out of cheese for your constant Whine.
I did not post the PM, but I offered to. I did quote you directly on every foul name you called me IN the PM.
Gee, did that hurt your feelings? Get over it.
Quit telling falsehoods and I'll have no reason to respond to your asinine posts.
John Stricker
quote
Originally posted by I'm Back:
"More lies and/or simple ignorance."
First he posts a PM from me to him so I ignore him, and then he continues to grossly insult me and carries virtually a unanimous positive rating. Don't ask what I think of the rating system.
"That means the market fell while under the last year of the Clinton administration 1,135.38 points."
Not that I want to get into any discussions with you, as I am abstaining until you acknowledge what you did, but I have said on every occasion it was posed to me that the economic indicators were starting to point down at the end of the Clinton run. Who's lying now?
Be a man of character as you claim to be and admit that posting a PM (private Message) is classless. The point of PM's is to take fights off the air - show us what you're made of.
[This message has been edited by jstricker (edited 11-28-2003).]
bush will be a one term guy just like his dad 2000 to 4000 dead in Iraq along with dow at or below 8500, intrest rates, and unimployment rates both up, are the main reasons for bush's defeat congress returns to demo's control in both houses
AARP BANKRUPT from defections of members over med-care drug bill RIP-OFF
------------------ Question wonder and be wierd are you kind?
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01:45 AM
G-Nasty Member
Posts: 2099 From: woodlands,TX,USA Registered: Jan 2001
2. Unemployment up 2-3%. GDP goes down after gloomy Holiday season spending runs dry
3. Since Dow usually goes up on news of high unemployment, and Fed continues to print up over 800 million dollars a day w/ most of it going to the top =NYSE continues to float around 9900
4. The extremely wealthy individuals; global in scope, who have control of banks, govts corporations & lands will see thier incomes continue to go up under a re-elected Bush as they did during his 1st term. Many have already paid thier 04' tidings & await for appropriations & federal monies to kick in.
5. Tiger Woods beautiful swedish wife gives birth to 3 headed hydra. The 3 headed hydra would have won the U.S. Masters in 2025 BUT... See addendum 6A below;
6. Civilization ends in 2015 as computer glitch causes WWW3. 6A. The 3 headed hydra flies to Mars avoiding destruction & starts a posh golf course & clubhouse.
7. Golf coarse gets burned down for insurance money and Hydra flies back to Earth
8. Dubbya, his wife and daughters are found living in bombshelter near NORAD. Hydra doodles shrubs daughter Jen & starts a litter of hybrid dumb stuttering lizard-like species that populate Brave New World.
