I think you have a good description of a failing water pump. I would guess that the shaft seal is failing and the coolant is leaking from the weep hole. On the V6 pump it is located just under the pump shaft at the 6 o-clock position. Very hard to check visually since there is the pump hub and pulley assembly in front of the weep hole. Might be able to check with a small mirror when leaking. (Use Caution if Engine Running) I would expect the leak should get worse with time.
One thing you may want to try, run the car until warm, then park it and shut off the engine. With the engine warm and no cooling through the radiator, the cooling system pressure will peak and you may see a leak. (If looking from below, Use some Eye Protection)
Do you know haw many miles since the water pump was last replaced?
[This message has been edited by StockGT (edited 09-28-2007).]